Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

My concern is more about Dorsey, in fact, all about Dorsey.  I love Kincaid the prospect as a weapon, but Dorsey last year IMHO struggled bad with getting the talent on the roster properly involved in the offense.  With the slot being a struggle all year, we didn't feature Knox more or try and get Shakir more established.  Cook and Hines were brought in to be pass catching RB's then we didn't use Cook much that way and Hines got 11 total touches only.  

 

But...there is more optimism here I think than most the cases above.  In all those cases, they were drafted to be the teams primary TE.  We already have a primary TE, and Kincaid was drafted to be a weapon primarily and more of a big slot.  Beane jokingly called it 11.5 personnel.  So I think there is more opportunity to get Kincaid involved in the offense given that will be his primary role.  

 

The one good thing though is we have a 1st & 4th round pick invested in Kincaid.  Pressure is on for Dorsey to get him involved.

The reality is this team has a lot of mouths to feed and there is only 1 football.  So I think 40-50 receptions, 450-600 yards and 4-6 TD's feels like a reasonable expectation year 1.  We still have Diggs, Davis, Knox, Sherfield, Shakir, Harty, and our RB's that will all be involved in the pass game.   He has the potential to put up that 1000 yard season of course, just might be hard with all these other guys here too.  

Edited April 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So like a Mike Gesicki?

 

Rookie year, Mike had 22 rec for 202 yards and 0 TDs.

Don't think Mike had Josh Allen for a QB and Diggs as a WR

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

So like Mark Andrews?  So like Travis Kelce?

 

your MO is so predictable.   

Mark Andrews wasn't drafted in the first round.  Neither was Kelce.

 

For reference:

 

Mark Andrews rookie season - 34 rec 552 yards 3 TD's

 

Travis Kelce rookie season - 1 GP 0 target 0 rec 0 TD's.

 

George Kittle rookie season - 43 rec 515 yards 2 TD's

Edited April 29, 2023 by FireChans

[Nephilim17]

I don't think it's logical to just look at first-round TE stats. A new first-round TE is more likely replicate the production of a third or fifth-round guy, than the other way around.

If we drafted a TE in the fifth, no one would look at 1st-round TE production but logic does work the other way.

 

For historically great TE production in a rookie season see here:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receiving-yards-by-a-rookie-tight-end-in-a-season

 

Since 2010, there have been 8 TEs with at least 500 yards in their rookie season. However, 6 of those had fewer than 600 yards with one having 722 (Engram) and one with 1,026 (Pitts).

Kincaid is more than capable of joining that plus-500-yards list.

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Mark Andrews wasn't drafted in the first round.  Neither was Kelce.

 

For reference:

 

Mark Andrews rookie season - 34 rec 552 yards 3 TD's

 

Travis Kelce rookie season - 1 GP 0 target 0 rec 0 TD's.

 

George Kittle rookie season - 43 rec 515 yards 2 TD's

And either was Mike Gesicki—— the guy that you referenced.  This is too funny and just so predictable.  Every thread

[Ethan in Cleveland]

He's not going to play TE.  He is going to be a standup WR in the slot that will tower over every nickel CB, S and LB he faces. 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And either was Mike Gesicki—— the guy that you referenced.  This is too funny and just so predictable.  Every thread

I mean, Mike Gesicki is the poster child of “not being used in the traditional TE role.”

 

which you are well aware of. You’re just mad which seems like a personal problem.

Edited April 29, 2023 by FireChans

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 
If Kincaid puts up these stats, I’d be happy with it.  Knox didn’t even put up those stats his first two seasons.  There’s other mouths to feed in this offense.  Kincaid hopefully adds another dimension that also helps boost the rest of the offense too.

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

The most valid comp on that list is Pitts, because of the way, Kincaid is expected to be used. And Pitts QB in 2021 was kind of a broken down Matt Ryan as a QB.  Not saying Pitts is the floor. But it is not be shocking for Knox and Kincaid to have 1400 yds between then and 12 TDs between them. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Chaos

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean, Mike Gesicki is the poster child of “not being used in the traditional TE role.”

 

which you are well aware of. You’re just mad which seems like a personal problem.

but he’s not a first round pick…. Just like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrew’s…. Which was the point of this thread AND your reply to my rebuttal.  
 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

There were 5 TE's drafted before Knox, none of them are still with the team that drafted them.  Gronk was drafted in 2nd, Kittle 3rd, and Kelce 5th (may have those 2 reversed??)

 

TE IMO is the 2nd hardest position to project other than QB.

 

Having said that, sounds like the Bills plan to use him more like a slot receiver so makes me less worried.  Likely the biggest thing he'll need to improve is his blocking.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

but he’s not a first round pick…. Just like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrew’s…. Which was the point of this thread AND your reply to my rebuttal.  
 

 

 

Yeah, he's a player comp.  It's not moving the goalposts when I'm not even having a discussion with you lmao.  What are the "goal posts" that you even have here?  Besides:

 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

1 hour ago, MPL said:

Who were the quarterbacks throwing to these guys? How did these offenses perform overall throughout the course of the season? Did these teams have a top 10 passing attack? 

Well you had Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford (twice), Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Lamar Jackson in there. Multiple pro bowlers, a league MVP, multiple top 10 offenses and perhaps even a Hall of Famer or 3.

Is that not good enough?

Edited April 29, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Southern_Bills said:

30-300 and 3 TDs would be a success in this offense. 

 

And don't discount it, we are most likely talking about 20 first downs and 3 red zone TDs. That can win quite a few games considering we are always a play away...besides the Bengals game last year.

 

I absolutely disagree, given the statements from Beane about the role they believe he can fill as a "big slot" who has some of the Beasley-like skills to find the gaps in zone coverage, but with a different body type.

 

If that's what they expect, then even McKenzie level production of 42/420 yds and 5 TD would be a bit of a disappointment.

[Koufax]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

Great teams get to draft great players and that helps them stay great teams even without top-15 picks. 
 

Who do you think was available that will be a better player over the next five years? I don’t see anyone.

 

Maybe because the only game I watched was against USC, or maybe because I have been watching so much Kelce the last few years. 
 

Knox or past utilization of TEs are bad reasons to select an inferior player. So if you don’t love this pick, name the player for the record so we can all cycle back. 
 

Everyone who was here years ago was on Ngata over Whitner, Orakpo over Maybin, but I think we got the best player we could and am excited. 
 

Before the pick was made I was really hoping for Kincaid and think he is by far the best pick we could have made. 

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The most valid comp on that list is Pitts, because of the way, Kincaid is expected to be used. And Pitts QB in 2021 was kind of a broken down Matt Ryan as a QB.  Not saying Pitts is the floor. But it is not be shocking for Knox and Kincaid to have 1400 yds between then and 12 TDs between them. 

That would be awesome but also absolutely shocking.

 

Mostly because I'm assuming you don't think that it's going to be like the Chiefs last year when Kelce had 1300 and Noah Gray had 300.

 

That would probably be a top 5 TE duo statline in NFL history.

[Chaos]

Just now, FireChans said:

That would be awesome but also absolutely shocking.

 

Mostly because I'm assuming you don't think that it's going to be like the Chiefs last year when Kelce had 1300 and Noah Gray had 300.

 

That would probably be a top 5 TE duo statline in NFL history.

TD number is on the high side, but i think the yardage number is realistic. 

[Milanos Milano]

I’m going to guess 40-580-4

We will use Kincaid a lot this year I’m willing to bet. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[K D]

5 minutes ago, Koufax said:

Great teams get to draft great players and that helps them stay great teams even without top-15 picks. 
 

Who do you think was available that will be a better player over the next five years? I don’t see anyone.

 

Maybe because the only game I watched was against USC, or maybe because I have been watching so much Kelce the last few years. 
 

Knox or past utilization of TEs are bad reasons to select an inferior player. So if you don’t love this pick, name the player for the record so we can all cycle back. 
 

Everyone who was here years ago was on Ngata over Whitner, Orakpo over Maybin, but I think we got the best player we could and am excited. 
 

Before the pick was made I was really hoping for Kincaid and think he is by far the best pick we could have made. 

The point by the OP is that this guy can have a great year by TE standards and it won't amount to much production at all. He might be great but who cares if he only has 400 yards receiving? That's not pushing us over the edge towards super bowl contention

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah, he's a player comp.  It's not moving the goalposts when I'm not even having a discussion with you lmao.  What are the "goal posts" that you even have here?  Besides:

 

It is moving the goalposts when you use first round pick as the premise for your post…… then YOU bring up Mike Gesicki…..and then rebut Kelce and Andrews because they weren’t 1st round picks….. which Gesicki wasn’t either.  
 

have fun being you.