Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[FireChans]

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

[Mr. Wonderful]

Nice analysis.  My expectations just dropped.  😕

[Warcodered]

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

[FireChans]

Just now, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

So like a Mike Gesicki?

 

Rookie year, Mike had 22 rec for 202 yards and 0 TDs.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

So like a Mike Gesicki?

 

Rookie year, Mike had 22 rec for 202 yards and 0 TDs.

So like Mark Andrews?  So like Travis Kelce?

 

your MO is so predictable.   

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

plenty of those guys are pass catchers. If there are about 4500 yards and 35 or so TDs to go around I think he’s 4-500 and 5 of those.

Knox similar. Davis close to 1k, diggs closer to 14-1500, and the remainder of the depth guys and backs for 1000

[Dopey]

It’s weird that with all of that production, Pitts only had one td. 

[947]

TE is a steep learning curve for a rookie & few make much of an impact their first season. But looking at that list, the 2 who stand out, Pitts/Engram, are not true Y-TEs. They're technically F-TEs, but really just big WRs. Their learning curve is mainly route running, since they rarely inline block. Kincaid is in the same mold, he needs to learn the playbook & routes, he should be up to speed much quicker than a traditional TE would. He probably won't be working with Kromer on blocking, he'll be with the receivers.

[K D]

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I think Kincaid is treated more like a jumbo slot receiver and Knox will stay in-line and block half the time.

 

If the defense plays in nickel to put a db on him, I'd move him back in-line and run it. If they put a lb on Kincaid, I'm confident in his ability to get open. 

 

I think 500 yards is realistic if he stays healthy.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Allen2Diggs

[LABILLBACKER]

Within 2 years Kincaid will surpass Dawson as TE1.  He just gets open and doesn't drop the ball.  I see him as a large slot receiver. And he will open up redzone opportunities. 

[MPL]

Who were the quarterbacks throwing to these guys? How did these offenses perform overall throughout the course of the season? Did these teams have a top 10 passing attack? 

[Nephilim17]

1. He's got Allen throwing to him.

2. We really need a short chain-moving option Kincaid is now it.

3. I would be shocked he Kincaid doesn't get at least 500 yards. And I would not be shocked if he hits 800.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, MPL said:

Who were the quarterbacks throwing to these guys? How did these offenses perform overall throughout the course of the season? Did these teams have a top 10 passing attack? 

This was my first question.  That’s why context really comes into play.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, MPL said:

Who were the quarterbacks throwing to these guys? How did these offenses perform overall throughout the course of the season? Did these teams have a top 10 passing attack? 

why would he discuss that?  That would only refute this thread that was made to throw shade at his favorite team

[MPL]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

why would he discuss that?  That would only refute this thread that was made to throw shade at his favorite team

when you consider how bad some of these offenses were and how bad some of the quarterbacks were, this list is actually kind of encouraging 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, MPL said:

when you consider how bad some of these offenses were and how bad some of the quarterbacks were, this list is actually kind of encouraging 

It’s the best he could come up with.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

So there's a few obvious questions here:

 

1) even though these are all obviously first round picks, there's probably a need to normalize by playing time.  In addition to time lost for injuries playing a role, the other players on the roster play a role - for example, OJ Howard was playing with Cameron Brate at TE, who was getting a larger share of the targets (77 vs 39).

 

2) once normalized for playing time, context matters.  We all love to believe that 1st round = guaranteed success, but of course that's not true.  Only about half of 1st round players develop into good NFL contributors (not stars - just good contributors)  So for context, if you compare the production of 1st round WR in their 1st year, how does that match up?  I'll give an example: 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round last year.  2 (Drake Londin, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) had >70 receptions for >800 yds.  Two (Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson) had moderate production (>30 receptions, >400 yds).  One squibbed (Jameson Williams, 1 reception for 41 yds).

 

3) then of course, for the TE role, it's reasonable to ask "what role were these TE asked to play, and as receivers, who was throwing to them?"  So I think you're gonna see more variation in receiving production at the TE position than at the WR position, depending upon the role (F vs Y TE)

 

OK, for Kincaid, it seems to have been pretty clearly stated by Beane that they envision him as a "big slot".  Then the question becomes, "what would be a good contribution from that position?"  As a slot receiver last year, McKenzie's contribution of 42 receptions on 65 targets for 423 yds and 27 1st downs was pretty generally considered "not good enough".  That's 28 yds and 2 1D per game.  Beasley's final season in 2022 contributed 43 ypg and ~2 1D per game, and also represented a drop off for him.  Overall in his Buffalo years, Beasley contributed 5 receptions/game on about 7 targets/g and 51 ypg and more like 2.6 1D per game.  In Dallas, it was lower with 3 receptions/g on 4 targets per game, 32 ypg.

 

The Bills picked this guy specifically because of his "elite" hands and reported ability to find the gaps in zone coverage.  I think a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor.  I think we'd like to see more Beasley-in-Dallas type production, 50 receptions, 540 yds.  Of course, a lot depends upon how much he sees the field.  Beasley was only on the field maybe 55% of the snaps overall during his time in Dallas, more like 65-70% in Buffalo.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

TE is one of those spots where it takes often a year or two to start realizing their full potential, likely due to the complexity of the position and blocking requirements at this level. Still I’m hoping for 600-800 yards and atleast 5 TDS, as he is the top TE prospect in a very strong class.  
Considering what the Bills have done with Knox, who had a whopping 39 Catches for 605 yards and zero TDS in his entire collegiate career, I’m excited to see what Kincaid does in this offense. I mean the dude had almost half of Knox’s entire college catch total in one game vs USC…  

 

This was already the #2 scoring offense in all of the NFL last year (though you’d never believe this any time the name Ken Dorsey is uttered around here), and the flexibility the DK’s allows Dorsey is going to give opposing defenses nightmares. How do you know if it’s a power package or are they going to split one/both guys out and go 3/4 wide?  I think the rookie makes his presence known early and often as DCs won’t know how to gameplan for this new wrinkle in the Bills offense.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Dr.Mantis_Toboggan

[Southern_Bills]

30-300 and 3 TDs would be a success in this offense. 

 

And don't discount it, we are most likely talking about 20 first downs and 3 red zone TDs. That can win quite a few games considering we are always a play away...besides the Bengals game last year.