2023 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

First of all, apologies to those who missed me in the live draft thread last night. Was a bit of a case of life getting in the way yesterday and I ended up watching day 2 at my partner's without access to my full board and the setup I have at home for tracking the picks, updating this place and watching what's going on. Normal service will be resumed on day 3 - although appreciate from a Bills perspective that might not be a very busy day! So let's get down to what happened on day 2!

 

The Bills Picks...

First things first the Bills, having traded up at the cost of their 4th rounder on day one, stood pat and executed their original picks in both spots. In the second round they snagged O'Cyrus Torrence the huge guard out of Florida. He was my 36th overall player, and at the point he was selected he was 6th best available by my board and the second best available offensive player behind Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. In fact those two were kind of our on their own on the offensive side for me as by the time the Bills went on the clock the 2nd round offensive talent was all but hollowed out. So in principle, talent and value at #59, there is much to like about this pick. Torrence is a beast in the run game, and he didn't allow a single sack in college. He also (as was touched on in Beane's presser) has experience blocking for an athletic Quarterback who likes to extend plays in Anthony Richardson (and who in my write up on Richardson I made the point does not scramble in a way that makes it easy on his guys because he is so unpredictable). I think that experience will assist him in transitioning to the Bills. He was my second rated guard overall (behind Skoronski) and my third overall interior offensive lineman. He can start and be good as a rookie and on an offensive line that has had its struggles inside over the past few years McGovern, Morse, Bates, Boettger, Edwards and Torrence suddenly looks like a strength of the roster going into camp. I'd expect McGovern and Torrence to emerge as the starting guards. The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge. The one thing that reassures me is the Bills had Torrence in, Aaron Kromer worked him out and he has presumably signed off on this pick. I still think despite the struggles last year that Kromer can coach. If he thinks he can make this work I'm willing to trust him. The second minor concern with the pick is positional value. It's a guard with a premium pick. I'd have been tempted to go weapon again with Hyatt but I have said all draft season that in a weaker class I'm about targeting guys you really like a bit less than I am about positional value. Tight End and Guard would not normally float my boat... but we all knew they needed to upgrade Josh's weapons and his protection and to that end they are 2 for 2. Hard to complain too much about that. 

 

Onto round 3 where the Bills, for the second year running, snagged a linebacker. At least this year it was a guy I had heard of and evaluated. In terms of my grads Dorian Williams was a top 100 player and was the 20th best available by my board when selected. I had borderline 3rd/4th round grade on him, so value where selected I was fine with. There was a lot of talk about where the value of the board might be by this pick in the run up to the draft and personally I thought edge might be in play but my edge depth was wiped out by #91 and while there are a few guys knocking about I'd consider on day 3 my board is now very thin at the position. I have seen a lot of talk since the pick was made about Williams being the Tremaine Edmunds replacement though.... and I am not sure that is the player he is. To me he is more Milano than Edmunds. He possesses great speed, can run side to side and can cover as well as some safeties. But he isn't big by NFL linebacking standards and he doesn't play with the requisite power to be a difference maker at the point of contact coming downhill. Brandon Beane said last night that he agrees and they see Williams as an "outside guy" in year 1. Which I suppose did make me question what the answer for Tremaine's spot is. Conventional wisdom says that Bernard, Dodson and Klein battle it out. But if your rookie has to play outside day 1 could Matt Milano play inside? The Bills have done it before - noticeable with Lorenzo Alexander in that playoff game in Jacksonville - where suddenly an outside guy ran the defense. Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side? Questions indeed. But basically I think Williams can be an impactful NFL player down the road as a modern, undersized linebacker that Sean McDermott has had success with over the years. 

 

So both of the picks in isolation I see the reasoning and I don't dislike either. I do, however, wonder strategically whether I'd have played it the other way. Had I been in the live thread last night when we went on the clock in round 2 I'd have had good money on Trenton Simpson or Drew Sanders being the pick. I don't think any of us foresaw both of those players making it to #59. Indeed, I did a mock on one of the simulators the other day where Simpson and Campbell both fell and I ignored them as I felt two of the top three linebackers getting to #59 was unrealistic - shows what I know! I am not doubting that Torrence was right up there on the Bills board when they selected him. Like I said above he was right up there on mine too, but I suspect the linebackers were there somewhere too. But I wonder if they looked at it and said "hang on, Simpson, Sanders, Henley and Williams are all still there" (Henry To'o To'o is too, though not sure they Bills have shown even a passing interest in him) and felt like they could wait on linebacker until round 3, whereas in terms of offensive line Bergeron, Avila, Schmitz, Tippman and Mauch had all gone off the board and the remaining depth was thinner. In hindsight I'd have preferred Simpson or Sanders and then Chandler Zavala (who is still there) at the end of the 3rd I think, because you'd have had your starter at linebacker alongside Milano but I get it hindsight is 20/20 and again, I find it hard to be too critical of an approach that has focused on Josh and the offense. That has been long overdue. 

 

How we approach day 3 will be fascinating. Not sure there is a single position they "have to have" at this point so they can follow the board. But dline, safety and another receiver are where I'll be keeping an eye. Beane said last night receiver and corner is where the remaining depth looks best. My board is pretty similar if I expand corner out to defensive back to include safeties (on which more below). 

 

What about the other 31...

I suppose I should start where the second round started with the Steelers and the fairytale with Joey Porter Jnr. Not only is that a great story but they got a genuine top 15 player in this class at the start of round 2. Exceptional value. I am not, as readers of my thoughts this spring will know, the biggest fan of their next two picks - Keeanu Benton at defensive tackle in the 2nd and Darnell Washington at tight end in the 3rd - but they both 'feel' like Steelers to me. Wouldn't be surprised if both were successful in Pittsburgh. The team I though had a slam dunk of a night was Joe Schoen and the New York Football Giants. John Michael Schmitz is a plug and play 8 year starter. An older prospect who will be a leader on that offensive line day 1. Jon Feliciano was their starting center last season and is now in San Francisco. This is a huge upgrade. And then they swung a trade to move up in round 3 and snag Jalin Hyatt who was a top 25 player on my board. They will ultimately have to find a way to upgrade at Quarterback but so far the Schoen - Daboll era in New Jersey has been extremely impressive. A word for the Bengals too. Their defensive backfield lost three starters in Von Bell, Jesse Bates and Eli Apple this spring. DJ Turner might be more of a nickel corner but has some outside ability and was good value at the end of round 2 and then Jordan Battle probably starts as a rookie at strong safety. A couple of teams who left me scratching my head on day 2 - I know some people here love Jonathan Mingo, but I don't. The Panthers reached on him and then reached again with DJ Johnson in round 3, a former tight end turned edge rusher who will turn 25 early in his rookie season. The Packers took two tight ends (your guess is as good as mine) and a small, not particularly explosive, slot receiver in Jayden Reed who to my eye has the talent of a day 3 pick. There used to be a time when the Packers were good at drafting. Can anyone remember that far back? I'd also throw the Chiefs in the list of teams who I don't think have had the best draft so far. It felt a bit like they got a consolation prize in Anudike-Uzomah at the end of the first (though I like the player) they traded up in round 2 for Rashee Rice, who had a poor draft season despite solid tape at SMU but doesn't strike me as their "type" of receiver and then their desperation at tackle showed at the end of round 3 when they jumped up again for Wanya Morris. I confess Morris isn't a guy I watched a lot of and he does feel like a high risk but high reward selection. Their tackle situation would remain a serious concern for me heading into the season if I were a Chiefs fan. 

 

My other overall conclusion on day 2 was the general consensus lasted longer than I expected. By the end of the second round only one player not on my board had gone (Brenton Strange) and he was a "didn't have time to get to" rather than a guy I watched and dismissed (sidenote - 9 tight ends in the first 101 picks - wow). In round 3 there were 10 guys I hadn't got on the board - but four of those were the last four comp picks of the round. So actually despite the relative weakness of this draft the consensus over who the top 100 or so guys are has held pretty well. Which brings me to...

 

What's left?

I have 46 players left on my board heading into day 3... and by that the best 15 remaining are:

 

1. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

2. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

3. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

4. Andrew Vorhees*, IOL, USC

5. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

6. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern

7. Christopher Smith, S, Georgia

8. Chandler Zavala, IOL, North Carolina Stata

9. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland

10. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama

11. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama

12. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State

13. Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame

14. Henry To'o To'o, LB, Alabama

15. Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU

 

As you can see offensive line and secondary heavy at this stage... there is a batch of receivers just outside that group too. Those are the spots where I expect early day 3 runs.

 

Enjoy folks!

 

 

 

Why is Antonio Johnson falling Gunner! 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Why is Antonio Johnson falling Gunner! 

RAS. But the tape tells a different story.

[jkeerie]

A rational, well discussed evaluation of the Bills picks by someone who has real knowledge of the players and the game.  Much better than all the venom spewed by folks who just want to criticize without possessing real knowledge.  I was at a party last night and missed Day 2 of the draft, but had I been watching, like you, I would have taken Sanders or Simpson at 59 and gone oline in the 3rd.  Having said that, the Bills obviously felt the value for Torrence at 59 was too good to pass up and I'm not going to criticize them nabbing a first round talent to add to an Oline that was desparate for improvement.  In truth, I don't know much about Williams, having sparsely watched Tulane's games, though watching him in the bowl game vs USC, I immediately took note!  We can only wait and see what the Bills approach will be with their LBs especially in the middle.  Many criticized Edmunds for missing tackles and being slow reacting to the pass.  Williams seems to be the opposite being a solid tackler and reacting well to the pass.  So...I think the Bills roster has definitely been improved thus far this draft.  I'd like to see WR and DT addressed with the remaining picks.

[buffaloboyinATL]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side?

 

 

This is kind of what I am starting to think we will do.  Klein is at his best in this role, and it will be easier to sub other players into that spot. I am interested in To'o To'o, but not sure we will take 2 LB'ers in a row.  I think DL, Roy from LSU would be a great fit.  

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge.

 

I wonder if it was a case of a player with a much higher grade sticking out on the board. Ideally you always want to take perfect scheme fits, but if a lesser scheme fit is a high 2nd round grade and everyone else on the board is borderline 2nd/3rd you should just take the higher grade and find a way to make it work.

 

I appreciate that in rounds 1 and 2 Beane did appear to truly stick to a BPA strategy. I'm not entirely convinced that Dorian Williams was BPA at that spot, I think the run on LBs immediately before our pick may have made Beane panic that we were going to miss the boat entirely on our biggest position of need. Your analysis of him makes me feel a lot better about the player, I just don't understand why Beane took a Milano backup/special teamer in the 3rd round by his own admission. I'm trying to figure out what the plan is. My bold guess is that they have already soured on Bernard and are prepared to move on from him after his rookie season.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, jkeerie said:

I don't know much about Williams, having sparsely watched Tulane's games, though watching him in the bowl game vs USC, I immediately took note!

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

That's a little too much recency bias.

[jkeerie]

41 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This has been somewhat of a trend of this regime, taking players who really showed out in their final game in college. I believe Bernard had a great performance in his final bowl game too. I wonder if they put a special value on the final game of a player's college career, like they think it shows best how that player will look entering the NFL.

That's a good thought.  Also bowl games are important.  If they play their best in big games, that bodes well for the player's ability to turn it up a notch when they have to.

[Shaw66]

Great stuff, Gunner!  Thanks!

 

You're point about positional value got me thinking about this and prior drafts.   Looking at positional values doesn't make Beane's first and second round drafts look too good.  

 

The point about positional value is most clear when you look at punters.   You just don't take punters in the first round, because the best punter in the world is not going to make that much difference in terms of wins and losses over a guy you can pick up in free agency.  

 

The high positional values are QB, wideout, DB, DL, OT, occasionally a center.   You generally don't take TEs or guards in the first round.   It's easy to see why.   You want guys who are keepers, and those are the positions you take in the first round.   If you get a good OT in the first round, five years later you pay him and keep him.  Same with a QB.   But if you get a really good TE, five years later you often lose him, because he just isn't that important to your offense.  Now, if Kincaid becomes Kelce, sure, you keep him, but most other TEs just aren't worth spending the money on.  

 

Look at Beane's record at getting keepers.   Not so good.  Allen, for sure, but Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Basham, a bunch of guys who probably won't be kept.   Now Kincaid, another guy who probably won't be kept, although obviously it's too early to tell.  The point is that it's beginning to look like Beane is drafting more for the short-term than to find long-term keepers.  When he's drafted for positional value, he hasn't done so well, and this year he's gone away from positional value altogether, getting a TE and a guard, the two positions least likely to be drafted in the first two rounds but two positions that can help the Bills in the short term.  

 

A different way to look at what's happened is that Beane and McDermott are making some serious bets on guys who leave us scratching our heads.   Is Brown really the guy they're going with at right tackle?   Is Dawkins really the long-term answer on the left?   What's the future of the center position?  Are all the MLB candidates misfits?   

 

I find the Bills' focus on traditionally less valuable positions to be odd.