Some insight on Bills first round and how it went down

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

The post said Dallas was definitely taking Kincaid. I said there's no proof of that. That's all. Check out all of the down votes. This is a pretty common sense argument but people are so brainwashed that they truly think Beane knew Dallas was taking Kincaid and they more than likely were not based on reporting since. Someone just acknowledge this fact and I'll shut up 😂

 

Ha, ok you got me to laugh there haha.  

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but I would never personally say Beane "knew" what Dallas would do because that is impossible.  My only personal point was that Beane didn't need to know to justify trading up, he only had to feel the risk was high enough to warrant paying the cost to make sure we got him.  Plus besides Dallas, there was another team with a similar offer in play for Jax pick, and there is a good chance it might have also been for Kincaid given he was widely considered to be the BPA at that point.  

 

Either way, all good and GoBills!

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ha, ok you got me to laugh there haha.  

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but I would never personally say Beane "knew" what Dallas would do because that is impossible.  My only personal point was that Beane didn't need to know to justify trading up, he only had to feel the risk was high enough to warrant paying the cost to make sure we got him.  Plus besides Dallas, there was another team with a similar offer in play for Jax pick, and there is a good chance it might have also been for Kincaid given he was widely considered to be the BPA at that point.  

 

Either way, all good and GoBills!

 

It was definitely worth trading away a late 4th rounder to ensure they got the last 1st round talent left on their board.  Especially after being rebuffed trying to trade up for Addison and the run on WRs. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

 

It was definitely worth trading away a late 4th rounder to ensure they got the last 1st round talent left on their board.  Especially after being rebuffed trying to trade up for Addison and the run on WRs. 

 

100%!

 

The huge slot Kelce style TE piece has been MIA at OBD this entire millennium. I don’t care whether Kincaid is a touch slower than some 5-9 Smurf. Rather, the critical criteria are: is he huge, does he rarely if ever drop balls and does he make catches in traffic/ on jump balls?

 

Yes. Absolutely Yes. And hell yes!

 

A for Kincaid

A for Torrence

 

Good enough.

 

Bonus?

 

B for Williams

? For Shorter… but intriguing.

 

The others? Dunno.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Billsatlastin2018

[djp14150]

15 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The post said Dallas was definitely taking Kincaid. I said there's no proof of that. That's all. Check out all of the down votes. This is a pretty common sense argument but people are so brainwashed that they truly think Beane knew Dallas was taking Kincaid and they more than likely were not based on reporting since. Someone just acknowledge this fact and I'll shut up 😂

TE position was on that targeted short list of positions they would draft.

 

this was a player they wanted but wasn’t an all in player to get.  There was a limit on trade up range vs trade down.
 

Maybe Diggs bros shared Intel….

[Ga boy]

On 4/29/2023 at 11:19 AM, Dr. Who said:

You are dug in on your interpretation, partly because it confirms a particular view of Beane. I think mine is more plausible, but this is not the sort of issue that resolves ordinarily. Folks aren't argued out of fundamental convictions. Paradigm shifts require something more. You're welcome to your views, of course. I just disagree with them. (And it should go without saying, but in the big picture this an utterly trivial matter.)

After we win 5 straight Lombardies and  there’s a movie about Beane entitled Bills Beane Ball, we’ll learn the truth.

[2003Contenders]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but I have to say, this is a real odd hill you are trying to die on.  I mean, no GM in NFL history ever traded up knowing 100% for sure that X team was 100% taking X player and the only way to get them was to trade up.  Literally never happened because teams don't share their draft boards with other GM's.  They make calculated decisions on where a player might go and weigh the risk of waiting against the cost of moving up to insure they get said player.  So the point you are trying to insist on making is honestly just irrelevant to the decisions a GM has to make on draft night when facing the proposition of staying put or making a move to get a guy.  And Beane was comfortable with the cost to get a guy he had way ahead of any other player on his board so he pulled the trigger to make sure he got him.  

 

I mean if you expect Beane to ONLY trade up if he 100% knows another teams official draft choice before they have made it, then I think you have a very unrealstic view of what information a GM is expected to concretely know before making decisions.  

 

Bottom line too, is just about every sports insider, analyst, commentator, and fan pretty much feel like Dallas was likely going to want Kincaid there if he was on the board.  So its not even requiring a leap in logic here to justify Beane's decision to move up, it was what most people thought would be at or near the top of Dallas draft board.  And given they took a TE right after this, that is pretty much validated they wanted a TE early and that it is entirely possibly, maybe even likely, Kincaid would have been the BPA when they were on the clock.  

 

I for one am glad we don't have a GM afraid to make a small move to get the player they covet, especially when that player is WIDELY considered the best player available still at that spot and also widely seen as a top 10 talent.  Not sure why it rubs you the wrong way so much, but hey, everyone is welcome to their own opinions and reasons.  

 

GoBills

 

Beane was on Moving the Chains on Sirius Monday and addressed the trade and the thoughts that went into it. It was a very candid conversation between him and Pat Kerwin. Beane stated the following:

 

1. Went into the draft with limited picks so they knew they needed to be judicious about trade-ups, etc.

 

2. The run on WRs came quite a bit later than they anticipated. They thought the first could come off the board as early as 12 and certainly by the teens. When the first one dropped to the 20s, that's when they started to believe that they had a real shot at trading up to get one of the receivers or Kincaid.

 

3. Beane said they first tried trading up with his "good buddy" with the Giants, but the Giants had already made another deal. He was vague about whther that deal would have been for Kincaid or for one of those receivers -- but he implied that he had Kincaid and at least one of those receivers with a close grade. When the 4 receivers all went one after the other, he knew he needed to move up ahead of Dallas to get Kincaid. Kerwin asked him how certain he was that Dallas was going to take Kincaid. Beane responded that he had reliable sources that told him that Dallas was prepared to take Kincaid, then paused and said with a chuckle "But I guess you would have to ask Dallas." Kerwin chuckled too. The sense I got was that both of them believe that Dallas was definitely prepared to draft Kincaid -- but since the draft the Cowboys have held fast that Smith was their guy all along, which is team-speak rather than the truth. Of course, we will never know for sure what Dallas would have done if Kincaid was still there, but many in the NFL arena (including Beane and the Bills) believed that Dallas was going to take him.

 

4. In the 2nd round he said that he was very tempted to move up for Torrence -- but having already traded away the 4th they did not have the ammunition they needed to trade up. When Torrence was still there with their pick, the war room got very excited and he said it was a no-brainer. Said Torrence was their top graded guard in the draft.

 

5. It is interesting that Beane actually downplayed the Williams selection in the 3rd. Said they expect him to contribute in a big way on special teams and likely serve as a backup at one of the LB spots. The plan is to work him in as both MLB and OLB and see which position he is most comfortable with and progress from there.

 

6. Regarding Shorter, he loved his physical tools and measurables. Said it was a bonus that Shorter played with Richardson at Florida, so he was used to having to improvise and roll with broken plays -- attributes that should help Josh. They like him on special teams too.

 

7. Beane did not come right out and say it, but he intimated that he likes next year's draft much better, which is why he was happy to maneuver in the 5th-7th rounds this year and pick up 2 extra 6's next year, while still maintaining 3 picks in those rounds this year.

[HaldimandBills]

Given we got the drafts best pass catcher and a mauling Guard in the 2nd I can live without the 4th round pick. Only reason  I'd of like to have kept the 4th would be to use it to trade up and grab a MLB early in the 3rd round. 

[CA OC Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The post said Dallas was definitely taking Kincaid. I said there's no proof of that. That's all. Check out all of the down votes. This is a pretty common sense argument but people are so brainwashed that they truly think Beane knew Dallas was taking Kincaid and they more than likely were not based on reporting since. Someone just acknowledge this fact and I'll shut up 😂

Get over it already.

 

I really don't get why you keep arguing your point. First of all, the post does NOT say that Dallas was definitely taking Kincaid, even your first post said, "I keep seeing everyone saying Kincaid would have been gone like it's a fact." I think it's pretty obvious, this being a message board that likely Jerry Jones is not anonymously messaging on, that when people state he would have been gone, it's their belief, not fact. Everyone who has responded to you has stated this in one way or another.

 

There are two things that matter:

1) Beane BELIEVED he needed to trade up if he wanted to be 100% sure that he got his guy.

2) If in a few years, it was a good pick.

If he's a bust, it was a bad decision. If he plays 10+ years for the Bills and is a HOFer, it was a fantastic decision even if Beane was wrong about Dallas taking him or some other team trading up to take him. If he's somewhere in between, then depending on where between and how other players he would have traded down to take, it may or may not have been the right decision. Trading up for Josh Allen was a great decision. The Jets trading up for Darnold wasn't. The Cardinals taking (did they trade up for him?) the "Right" Josh, wasn't. Chicago trading up for Trubisky wasn't but if they had taken Mahomes instead when they traded up...

 

By the way, in addition to those here and Beane who thought Dallas likely wanted Kincaid, as was said above Beane was on Moving the Chains on Monday. Later on Monday they replayed part of the interview on Late Hits with Alex Marvez and Bill Polian. Bill said that based on Dallas' war room shown on TV, with all the down faces, it seems almost definite that Dallas was targeting him.

 

So no, none of us knows for a fact what Dallas' plans were, but so what? Whether it's the draft, poker, or any negotiation, you try to read your opponent and take your best guess as to what their plans are and if there's a bluff involved. You make your bet accordingly and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.