Some insight on Bills first round and how it went down

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

Funny how this works out. Beane said the same thing about Elam last year. It just so happens that the Bills are lucky enough to pick the last 1st rounder they have on their board. 
 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/04/29/brandon-beane-kaiir-elam-was-last-first-round-grade-on-our-board/

 

It's not luck: they traded up both times.  Luck is having them fall to them.  Beane's not trading a decent pick to trade up for a 2nd round talent.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Doc

[mannc]

On 4/30/2023 at 6:43 AM, DCofNC said:

The only thing that really matters is if Kincaid works out, if not, it still sucks.   Knowing how hyped up that Cowboys draft room usually is when they make a pick, something definitely didn’t go the way they wanted.

You mean the Cowboys weren’t over-the- moon about taking a space-eating defensive lineman with their first round pick???

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

 

Funny how this works out. Beane said the same thing about Elam last year. It just so happens that the Bills are lucky enough to pick the last 1st rounder they have on their board. 
 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/04/29/brandon-beane-kaiir-elam-was-last-first-round-grade-on-our-board/

I mean it does match and correlate though with how Beane handles the situation and moved up to get the player he said was the only one they felt still had a first round grade.  And keep in mind, both times we picked at the back end of the round where there isn’t going to be many guys left with first round grades on anyone’s board.

 

So IMHO I think Beane is being authentic here given where we picked, him moving up, and based on who was left on the board that we would potentially draft.  

[Mark Long Beach]

On 4/30/2023 at 5:28 AM, DCofNC said:

Seeing how deflated that Cowboy draft room looked during the process of the first round pick, it certainly appeared they lost out on their guy and had to settle.  Honestly, it was glorious.

 

Does anyone have any video of the Dallas draft room?   I loathe Jerry Jones.

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/29/2023 at 12:38 PM, KDIGGZ said:

He's just a fan like you or me. There are people upset that we didn't trade all the way up for the 4th best WR or the 2nd best RB. Doesn't mean that was the right thing to do either

 

Ok, here you go @KDIGGZ, here is the proof you have been wanting.  Beane tells Rich Eisen in this interview that yes, he specifically traded ahead of Dallas because he knew they were in the market for a TE because they lost Schultz and could potentially take him.   Go to 8:45 into the interview.

 

Which is exactly what I said that it doesn't matter if Dallas really was, or claim they weren't, etc...all that mattered that in that moment live in the draft that they felt Dallas could take him to warrant trading up to make sure they got him.  

 

 

[K D]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ok, here you go @KDIGGZ, here is the proof you have been wanting.  Beane tells Rich Eisen in this interview that yes, he specifically traded ahead of Dallas because he knew they were in the market for a TE because they lost Schultz and could potentially take him.   Go to 8:45 into the interview.

 

Which is exactly what I said that it doesn't matter if Dallas really was, or claim they weren't, etc...all that mattered that in that moment live in the draft that they felt Dallas could take him to warrant trading up to make sure they got him.  

 

 

That was my argument in that the only "proof" we have is Beane, who got antsy yet AGAIN, needed an excuse for why he moved up and gave up draft assets.

 

As soon as that happened everyone was like ohhh he showed the Cowboys! But the Cowboys laughed it off and said they had no TE graded as high as Mazi Smith and their insider said they were definitely not taking a TE in round 1. You can choose to believe Beane or the Cowboys but it's 100% not a given that the Cowboys would have taken him. In fact it's been more proven otherwise and the only person saying the opposite is Beane who had to justify moving up

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 4/29/2023 at 4:31 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

What an exciting first 2 days of the draft, none more exciting than the first round!  Well here is how the first round went down for the Bills, some of this has come out publicly since our pick and some of this is inside info I have confirmed.  I don't often share inside info on here, but when I have as you know it's been always been correct, and I have a little here to share now as well. 

 

• Jordan Addison was their first and primary target in which they tried at least twice to trade up for him.  He was their highest graded WR in the draft.
  • I have a source that confirms to me that one of the teams were the Chargers but were rebuffed as they were all in on Quentin Johnston.
  • I don't know who the other team(s) was, but it was presumably after the Chargers because they said we "first tried to get him at the Chargers pick".
• Supposedly Bills did not have a first round grade on all of the WR's that went before our pick, and Addison was definitely the only one they tried to trade up for.  So not clear if Addison was the only first round grade or not, but they definitely didn't have one on all 4 guys.
• The only remaining player on the board after Addison went with a first round grade on Beanes board was Kincaid.  This is not inside info, Beane directly stated that.  
• From what I was told, the Jags had another team call with a similar offer for their pick but ours was slightly better.  (Maybe Cincy for Kincaid?) 
  • I would guess it was Cincy, not sure if it was for Kincaid or just to make sure they got Myles Murphy if they thought we might go EDGE with the top 4 WRs gone.
  • The reason I would guess Cincy is because they would have to be close enough to be offering the same 4th round pick since it was "similar" compensation, but also be behind us where our pick was a slightly better value.  Looking at the teams behind us, Cincy makes sense to me. 
• Beane stated he had a trade down in place if Kincaid was gone. 
  • I also was told this was true and it was with the Titans where we sent 27 and got back 41 and their 3rd.  
  • Once Giants took a CB, Beane obviously pulled the trigger with the Jags to get Kincaid instead of the trade down.

 

Nothing too ground breaking here, more just confirming what a lot of us suspected already or had already come out.  Addison being their top target was pretty known given how many times they met with him.  But it was interesting to see that we tried to get Addison though, makes me wonder if he was the only WR they had a first round grade on, or did they have on JSN too but just preferred Addison.  

 

What I love about Beane is that when he wasn't able to get Addison, he stayed aggressive in his pursuit for more weapons for Allen and pounced as soon as he had an opportunity to get one by not hesitating to jump the Cowboys to do it.  

 

I have no info on Hopkins, so don't ask 

 

Why did they love Addison so much? 

[TheBrownBear]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:17 AM, KDIGGZ said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thelandryhat.com/posts/cowboys-smokescreen-bills-trade-dalton-kincaid-nfl-draft-01gz419cr226/amp

What incentive was there for Dallas to "dupe" or hoodwink the Bills?  A fear that Jacksonville would take Mazi Smith?  It's not as if Dallas benefits from the Bills trading Jax a 4th rounder.  The whole thing makes zero sense.

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Why did they love Addison so much? 

I don’t know, no specific details as to why have come out, but my guess would be his feet and route running are similar to Diggs.  And with Allens ability to improvise and extend plays someone like Addison could really excel like Diggs has.  Outside Diggs, our other receivers struggled with getting separation and winning on their initial routes too, so I just gotta think they were attracted to that kind of stuff.  That is just my guess though.

[AuntieEm]

On 4/29/2023 at 5:45 AM, newcam2012 said:

What's the inside info on 3rd round pick LB Dorian Williams? 

 

I think that pick sucked big time. Wondering what in the world are the Bills doing? 

 

I bet you thought McDermott was tanking his first year when he traded some of our talent  and cut players that didn't fit the process.  I don't know what the defense will look like with the new players but I have faith in McD being able to mold his defense into a suitable pairing with our explosive offense.  Not common to have 2 dominant squads on either side of the ball.  Better to sharpen the better of the 2 and then tinker with the lesser. 

 

Bills best player is offense Josh Allen.  You solidify his protection he can elevate any talented players. 

 

Defense can be tinkered to be an opportunistic group that only needs to slow down the opponent.  I want a defense that wants to get back to their front row seats watching an offense that is unstoppable.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by AuntieEm

[Alphadawg7]

41 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

That was my argument in that the only "proof" we have is Beane, who got antsy yet AGAIN, needed an excuse for why he moved up and gave up draft assets.

 

As soon as that happened everyone was like ohhh he showed the Cowboys! But the Cowboys laughed it off and said they had no TE graded as high as Mazi Smith and their insider said they were definitely not taking a TE in round 1. You can choose to believe Beane or the Cowboys but it's 100% not a given that the Cowboys would have taken him. In fact it's been more proven otherwise and the only person saying the opposite is Beane who had to justify moving up

But you miss me the point of what it means while live in a draft.  You equally have no proof Cowboys would have passed on Kincaid if he didn’t trade up.  You have Dallas saying they love the guy they took, which they will say regardless if it’s true or not.  They are never ever going to publicly say Mazi wasn’t who they wanted and really wanted Kincaid but got stuck choosing Mazi because Bills out maneuvered them.  They are 100% going to always, whether true or not, state the guy they got was their target.  
 

Everyone and their mom thought Dallas could take a TE there.  So as a GM you have to decide is it worth the gamble to stay put or is the guy too good to risk getting taken before you and therefore the cost of moving up is worth it.  
 

This is true for every trade up in every draft.  No GM knows if the guy they want will get to them and make decisions to guarantee they get their guy.  
 

 

[K D]

43 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

What incentive was there for Dallas to "dupe" or hoodwink the Bills?  A fear that Jacksonville would take Mazi Smith?  It's not as if Dallas benefits from the Bills trading Jax a 4th rounder.  The whole thing makes zero sense.

Uhh so nobody drafts their guy? They do mock drafts and see who is left and they see a bunch of TE's and put out a fake story that yes we want a TE then anyone who wants a TE feels obligated to take their guy before they pick and meanwhile they get the position they really want 

29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But you miss me the point of what it means while live in a draft.  You equally have no proof Cowboys would have passed on Kincaid if he didn’t trade up.  You have Dallas saying they love the guy they took, which they will say regardless if it’s true or not.  They are never ever going to publicly say Mazi wasn’t who they wanted and really wanted Kincaid but got stuck choosing Mazi because Bills out maneuvered them.  They are 100% going to always, whether true or not, state the guy they got was their target.  
 

Everyone and their mom thought Dallas could take a TE there.  So as a GM you have to decide is it worth the gamble to stay put or is the guy too good to risk getting taken before you and therefore the cost of moving up is worth it.  
 

This is true for every trade up in every draft.  No GM knows if the guy they want will get to them and make decisions to guarantee they get their guy.  
 

 

Exactly! I have no proof and neither do you! So I posted that there is zero evidence the Cowboys wanted Kincaid, which is 100% true, and check out all of the down votes and people saying "well Beane said they wanted him." Beane has no freakin clue and the only evidence we have is that Dallas put out a fake story that they wanted a TE and Beane seems to have bought it hook line and sinker. Maybe they are lying, we will never know. But it's definitely not a fact that they would have taken Kincaid like everyone seems to think 

[MasterStrategist]

36 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But you miss me the point of what it means while live in a draft.  You equally have no proof Cowboys would have passed on Kincaid if he didn’t trade up.  You have Dallas saying they love the guy they took, which they will say regardless if it’s true or not.  They are never ever going to publicly say Mazi wasn’t who they wanted and really wanted Kincaid but got stuck choosing Mazi because Bills out maneuvered them.  They are 100% going to always, whether true or not, state the guy they got was their target.  
 

Everyone and their mom thought Dallas could take a TE there.  So as a GM you have to decide is it worth the gamble to stay put or is the guy too good to risk getting taken before you and therefore the cost of moving up is worth it.  
 

This is true for every trade up in every draft.  No GM knows if the guy they want will get to them and make decisions to guarantee they get their guy.  
 

 

Well said.

 

Dallas can deny all they want, but their pick was going to be Kincaid. NFL GMs (not just Beane) have a good pulse of who teams are targeting in the first few rounds, after that becomes team specific needs/roster depth/etc.

 

Beane specifically said he thought Chargers would be drafting Dalton.  Bills brass was not expecting this guy to slide to 25, let alone past Dallas

[djp14150]

On 4/29/2023 at 4:31 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

What an exciting first 2 days of the draft, none more exciting than the first round!  Well here is how the first round went down for the Bills, some of this has come out publicly since our pick and some of this is inside info I have confirmed.  I don't often share inside info on here, but when I have as you know it's been always been correct, and I have a little here to share now as well. 

 

• Jordan Addison was their first and primary target in which they tried at least twice to trade up for him.  He was their highest graded WR in the draft.
  • I have a source that confirms to me that one of the teams were the Chargers but were rebuffed as they were all in on Quentin Johnston.
  • I don't know who the other team(s) was, but it was presumably after the Chargers because they said we "first tried to get him at the Chargers pick".
• Supposedly Bills did not have a first round grade on all of the WR's that went before our pick, and Addison was definitely the only one they tried to trade up for.  So not clear if Addison was the only first round grade or not, but they definitely didn't have one on all 4 guys.
• The only remaining player on the board after Addison went with a first round grade on Beanes board was Kincaid.  This is not inside info, Beane directly stated that.  
• From what I was told, the Jags had another team call with a similar offer for their pick but ours was slightly better.  (Maybe Cincy for Kincaid?) 
  • I would guess it was Cincy, not sure if it was for Kincaid or just to make sure they got Myles Murphy if they thought we might go EDGE with the top 4 WRs gone.
  • The reason I would guess Cincy is because they would have to be close enough to be offering the same 4th round pick since it was "similar" compensation, but also be behind us where our pick was a slightly better value.  Looking at the teams behind us, Cincy makes sense to me. 
• Beane stated he had a trade down in place if Kincaid was gone. 
  • I also was told this was true and it was with the Titans where we sent 27 and got back 41 and their 3rd.  
  • Once Giants took a CB, Beane obviously pulled the trigger with the Jags to get Kincaid instead of the trade down.

 

Nothing too ground breaking here, more just confirming what a lot of us suspected already or had already come out.  Addison being their top target was pretty known given how many times they met with him.  But it was interesting to see that we tried to get Addison though, makes me wonder if he was the only WR they had a first round grade on, or did they have on JSN too but just preferred Addison.  

 

What I love about Beane is that when he wasn't able to get Addison, he stayed aggressive in his pursuit for more weapons for Allen and pounced as soon as he had an opportunity to get one by not hesitating to jump the Cowboys to do it.  

 

I have no info on Hopkins, so don't ask 

 

In looking at the trade with arizona…..I don’t think the trade down is accurate. Sure by pick value chart it’s close but knowing it was targeting a QB woukd cost more

[BigAl2526]

I'm fine with what the Bills did.  Now they just need to be intentional about incorporating Kincaid into the offense, and likely using two tight ends for a significant portion of offensive plays, if not most of them.  Two tight ends won't necessarily be a running formation for them though.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But you miss me the point of what it means while live in a draft.  You equally have no proof Cowboys would have passed on Kincaid if he didn’t trade up.  You have Dallas saying they love the guy they took, which they will say regardless if it’s true or not.  They are never ever going to publicly say Mazi wasn’t who they wanted and really wanted Kincaid but got stuck choosing Mazi because Bills out maneuvered them.  They are 100% going to always, whether true or not, state the guy they got was their target.  
 

Everyone and their mom thought Dallas could take a TE there.  So as a GM you have to decide is it worth the gamble to stay put or is the guy too good to risk getting taken before you and therefore the cost of moving up is worth it.  
 

This is true for every trade up in every draft.  No GM knows if the guy they want will get to them and make decisions to guarantee they get their guy. 

 

Kincaid was BPA and a need for the Cowboys.  Smith might have been a need, but he wasn't BPA.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

In looking at the trade with arizona…..I don’t think the trade down is accurate. Sure by pick value chart it’s close but knowing it was targeting a QB woukd cost more

 

There would have likely been more picks involved, but on the trade value chart their 3rd slightly over pays for the move up.  

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Well said.

 

Dallas can deny all they want, but their pick was going to be Kincaid. NFL GMs (not just Beane) have a good pulse of who teams are targeting in the first few rounds, after that becomes team specific needs/roster depth/etc.

 

Beane specifically said he thought Chargers would be drafting Dalton.  Bills brass was not expecting this guy to slide to 25, let alone past Dallas

 

And there were a number of spots he could have gone before Chargers too like Lions, Packers, etc.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Uhh so nobody drafts their guy? They do mock drafts and see who is left and they see a bunch of TE's and put out a fake story that yes we want a TE then anyone who wants a TE feels obligated to take their guy before they pick and meanwhile they get the position they really want 

Exactly! I have no proof and neither do you! So I posted that there is zero evidence the Cowboys wanted Kincaid, which is 100% true, and check out all of the down votes and people saying "well Beane said they wanted him." Beane has no freakin clue and the only evidence we have is that Dallas put out a fake story that they wanted a TE and Beane seems to have bought it hook line and sinker. Maybe they are lying, we will never know. But it's definitely not a fact that they would have taken Kincaid like everyone seems to think 

 

No disrespect, but I have to say, this is a real odd hill you are trying to die on.  I mean, no GM in NFL history ever traded up knowing 100% for sure that X team was 100% taking X player and the only way to get them was to trade up.  Literally never happened because teams don't share their draft boards with other GM's.  They make calculated decisions on where a player might go and weigh the risk of waiting against the cost of moving up to insure they get said player.  So the point you are trying to insist on making is honestly just irrelevant to the decisions a GM has to make on draft night when facing the proposition of staying put or making a move to get a guy.  And Beane was comfortable with the cost to get a guy he had way ahead of any other player on his board so he pulled the trigger to make sure he got him.  

 

I mean if you expect Beane to ONLY trade up if he 100% knows another teams official draft choice before they have made it, then I think you have a very unrealstic view of what information a GM is expected to concretely know before making decisions.  

 

Bottom line too, is just about every sports insider, analyst, commentator, and fan pretty much feel like Dallas was likely going to want Kincaid there if he was on the board.  So its not even requiring a leap in logic here to justify Beane's decision to move up, it was what most people thought would be at or near the top of Dallas draft board.  And given they took a TE right after this, that is pretty much validated they wanted a TE early and that it is entirely possibly, maybe even likely, Kincaid would have been the BPA when they were on the clock.  

 

I for one am glad we don't have a GM afraid to make a small move to get the player they covet, especially when that player is WIDELY considered the best player available still at that spot and also widely seen as a top 10 talent.  Not sure why it rubs you the wrong way so much, but hey, everyone is welcome to their own opinions and reasons.  

 

GoBills

[K D]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but I have to say, this is a real odd hill you are trying to die on.  I mean, no GM in NFL history ever traded up knowing 100% for sure that X team was 100% taking X player and the only way to get them was to trade up.  Literally never happened because teams don't share their draft boards with other GM's.  They make calculated decisions on where a player might go and weigh the risk of waiting against the cost of moving up to insure they get said player.  So the point you are trying to insist on making is honestly just irrelevant to the decisions a GM has to make on draft night when facing the proposition of staying put or making a move to get a guy.  And Beane was comfortable with the cost to get a guy he had way ahead of any other player on his board so he pulled the trigger to make sure he got him.  

 

I mean if you expect Beane to ONLY trade up if he 100% knows another teams official draft choice before they have made it, then I think you have a very unrealstic view of what information a GM is expected to concretely know before making decisions.  

 

Bottom line too, is just about every sports insider, analyst, commentator, and fan pretty much feel like Dallas was likely going to want Kincaid there if he was on the board.  So its not even requiring a leap in logic here to justify Beane's decision to move up, it was what most people thought would be at or near the top of Dallas draft board.  And given they took a TE right after this, that is pretty much validated they wanted a TE early and that it is entirely possibly, maybe even likely, Kincaid would have been the BPA when they were on the clock.  

 

I for one am glad we don't have a GM afraid to make a small move to get the player they covet, especially when that player is WIDELY considered the best player available still at that spot and also widely seen as a top 10 talent.  Not sure why it rubs you the wrong way so much, but hey, everyone is welcome to their own opinions and reasons.  

 

GoBills

The post said Dallas was definitely taking Kincaid. I said there's no proof of that. That's all. Check out all of the down votes. This is a pretty common sense argument but people are so brainwashed that they truly think Beane knew Dallas was taking Kincaid and they more than likely were not based on reporting since. Someone just acknowledge this fact and I'll shut up 😂

[wppete]

We got very lucky that Kincaid dropped to us.