RD 3, Pick 91: LB Dorian Williams, Tulane

[Ethan in Cleveland]

After more thought I'm thinking I dislike this pick. I was begrudgingly ok with another small ILB with the idea he would split time with Klein. 

But now I read Beane supposedly said he will play OLB. When? Milano never leaves the field. They almost never play 4-3. I guess you can play Milano at MLB in the nickel. He's had some snaps there before. 

Seems like a waste for the third round. 

Also it makes me even more sick that Beane thinks Bernard or Spector can compete for the MLB spot. 

Hope I'm wrong and we get more out of him in 2023 than they did from Bernard in 2022.

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Any 3rd rounder should be thought of as 1-2 years down the road. Too many people focusing on his immediate impact.

 

I kind of disagree with that.  Ideally you want your draft picks from the 1st 3 rounds to contribute right away to offense or defense.  On the other hand, the better the team, the less need for draft choices anywhere to contribute, and that's pretty clearly where we were with LB last season - we only needed 2, and bar injury, we had 'em.

 

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and yet around 35% of the third rounders started last year. That is a bad narrative. 

 

On the other hand, this surprises me a lot.  What do you mean by "started"?  1 or 2 games?  The whole season?  There are a lot of 3rd rounders who show on a site like pro-football-reference as playing a lot of games, but AFAIK for many of them, that does mean "on special teams"..

 

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

lets name some of our 3rd rounders that did start right away

 

Preston Brown  Started

Washington Started 11 first year

Dawkins starter I forgot this was a late second rounder. Prospected to go in third though

H. Phillips starter

Motor Contributed heavy first year

Brown Started the first year 3rd game i think.

 

Should I continue?

 

Harrison Phillips started 0 games for the Bills his 1st 2 seasons, and 3 games his 3rd season. 
He was a rotational player playing 35-40% of the snaps his first 3 years.

He did play consistently every game as a rookie - that's not starting, but perhaps that's what you mean?

 

I'm puzzled by how you define "started" (esp with regard to the surprising-to-me claim that 35% of the 3rd rounders "started last year".  I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm thinking you must have a different usage than I do for "starter".

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Shemp]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If I felt the way that Marino does I wouldn't have had Williams as a 5th or 6th round pick.   Sometimes I am perplexed about how some of these guys who make a living doing draft analysis stack their boards.   He's also not really high on Torrence despite having him as his 40th best player.   My opinion is about the same........it's an awkward fit.......but in general I wouldn't have had him that close to the 1st round to begin with.   Marino was literally mocking him to go in round 1.  

 

I'd like to see Marino run our draft. I'm starting to think our guys are a bunch of bozos. I've had it with them...clueless about addressing the Bills' true needs.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I kind of disagree with that.  Ideally you want your draft picks from the 1st 3 rounds to contribute right away to offense or defense.  On the other hand, the better the team, the less need for draft choices anywhere to contribute, and that's pretty clearly where we were with LB last season - we only needed 2, and bar injury, we had 'em.

 

 

On the other hand, this surprises me a lot.  What do you mean by "started"?  1 or 2 games?  The whole season?  There are a lot of 3rd rounders who show on a site like pro-football-reference as playing a lot of games, but AFAIK for many of them, that does mean "on special teams"..

 

 

Harrison Phillips started 0 games for the Bills his 1st 2 seasons, and 3 games his 3rd season. 
He was a rotational player playing 35-40% of the snaps his first 3 years.

He did play consistently every game as a rookie - that's not starting, but perhaps that's what you mean?

 

I'm puzzled by how you define "started" (esp with regard to the surprising-to-me claim that 35% of the 3rd rounders "started last year".  I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm thinking you must have a different usage than I do for "starter".

 

 

 

I think it depends on the position.  A WR, a RB, DB, and a DL can likely contribute significantly as a rookie even if not starting. That's because they rotate the starters heavily. A backup OG almost never plays. A backup OLB if that is where Williams will play in our defense will almost never see the field. 

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I did not define my sarcasm well enough !
 

before the draft I felt we needed a downhill LB who had the instincts to hit the correct gap , shed Linemen and blow up the running game

 

Now i do not feel that. Thinking McBeane is tweaking in another direction

Let the LBs read and react. speed and smarts to cover laterally and drop into zones. Bring the blitz inside and out.

Cover RBs in the flat and good in RO defenses

 sorry for being a smart aleck !
 

 

Me bad, I did miss your sarcasm

 

I agree, I don't believe McDermott is looking for the prototypical shed linemen/blow up the run game "Thumper" at MLB.

[MrEpsYtown]

19 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I kind of disagree with that.  Ideally you want your draft picks from the 1st 3 rounds to contribute right away to offense or defense.  On the other hand, the better the team, the less need for draft choices anywhere to contribute, and that's pretty clearly where we were with LB last season - we only needed 2, and bar injury, we had 'em.

 

 

On the other hand, this surprises me a lot.  What do you mean by "started"?  1 or 2 games?  The whole season?  There are a lot of 3rd rounders who show on a site like pro-football-reference as playing a lot of games, but AFAIK for many of them, that does mean "on special teams"..

 

 

Harrison Phillips started 0 games for the Bills his 1st 2 seasons, and 3 games his 3rd season. 
He was a rotational player playing 35-40% of the snaps his first 3 years.

He did play consistently every game as a rookie - that's not starting, but perhaps that's what you mean?

 

I'm puzzled by how you define "started" (esp with regard to the surprising-to-me claim that 35% of the 3rd rounders "started last year".  I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm thinking you must have a different usage than I do for "starter".

 

 

 

People LOVE Harrison Phillips around here. Supremely overrated and lots of irrational love that I will never understand. 

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, Shemp said:

 

I'd like to see Marino run our draft. I'm starting to think our guys are a bunch of bozos. I've had it with them...clueless about addressing the Bills' true needs.

Then again, you are a Stooge.

[DuckyBoys]

I like the pick  His tape looks good and he's crazy long for a player 6 1"   He's broad and rangy like tremaine  Maybe that is the body type they covet in their defense  His center of gravity will be lower and he looked like he had more pop in his tackles than Edmunds

[Buffalo Barbarian]

14 hours ago, NewEra said:

If some of the rumors about teams despising his disposition are true, I wouldn’t.  The FO knows more than us in that regard. 
 

I’m generally not a fan of drafting any player that big. It’s difficult to play in the nfl and remain healthy. It’s my belief that it’s much more difficult when your 6’8 380

No.  Now we have a beastly OG that was projected as possible 1st rd pick and best OG in the draft. A OG that didn’t give up a sack in college. 
 

 

 

Who isnt mobile and not a scheme fit for our offense, hope that works.

 

 

[aceman_16]

17 hours ago, boyst said:

Edmunds was not the right choice and Milano was developed and a longshot.

I think you are moving the bar to fit your narrative....carry on

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, Shemp said:

 

I'd like to see Marino run our draft. I'm starting to think our guys are a bunch of bozos. I've had it with them...clueless about addressing the Bills' true needs.

[RJ Sykes]

Umm Unsure why people are moaning about his size so much when he plays far above his size. His anticipation, closing speed, awareness and tackling technique are superb. I think people go and watch some film on him as opposed to his measurable. 
 

Also, although Edmunds has the measurables that posters are looking for, Williams far exceeds him already in the characterises I described above. Rarely did I see Edmunds use any form of technique and also seemed to be close in anticipation and closing speed. This guy is a bullet from behind scrimmage.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and yet around 35% of the third rounders started last year. That is a bad narrative. 

 

And they started for which teams? Rhetorical question, no need to go looking for answers.

 

My point is that it's easier for a 3rd rounder to start on a poor or rebuilding team than a perennial playoff team like the Bills.

 

3 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

I actually like the player quite a bit but it just doesn't really fill a need. With so few picks, I was hoping to address that hole but we'll see how the rest of the off-season goes

 

Lots of people are saying the pick doesn't fill a need but I'm not sure that's the case. The Bills base defense the last few years has been the 4-2-5 nickel with Tremaine and Milano essentially splitting the field.

 

What if the plan is for Williams and Milano to continue that arrangement? AND/OR, what if the plan is to run a 4-3-4 with 2 speedy outside linebackers and Klein in the middle on "running downs?"

 

Without knowing the Bills plans we can't say that Williams doesn't fill a need.

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Who is an "actual MLB"? 

I made a post listing the top-10 compensated ILBs by AAV.  According to the "efficient market" theory, the idea is top compensation tracks with how the NFL values these players, since no team is gonna queue up to pay an ILB the "big bucks".

 

I listed their heights, weights, draft position, and draft grade by NFL.com.

 

The finding was that 6'1" was within the average height of 6'2" +/- 2", which includes Tremaine Edmunds at 6'5" skewing it high.

His weight was a little light - 228 vs average 235 (again including Tremaine Edmunds at 253 almost 20 lbs heavier than anyone else)

 

7 lbs of muscle gain doesn't seem outrageous in the NFL

 

So....what do YOU define as an "Actual MLB" in the NFL, and what would be his characteristics?

 

Also, see above. In the base 4-2-5 we've been running, could you actually call Tremaine a MLB?

 

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

After more thought I'm thinking I dislike this pick. I was begrudgingly ok with another small ILB with the idea he would split time with Klein. 

But now I read Beane supposedly said he will play OLB. When? Milano never leaves the field. They almost never play 4-3. I guess you can play Milano at MLB in the nickel. He's had some snaps there before. 

Seems like a waste for the third round. 

Also it makes me even more sick that Beane thinks Bernard or Spector can compete for the MLB spot. 

Hope I'm wrong and we get more out of him in 2023 than they did from Bernard in 2022.

 

 

See above.

 

51 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Then again, you are a Stooge.

 

And a Stooge not named, Curly, Larry, or Moe.

 

Just playing.

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, SUNY_amherst said:

It is hard to get excited though because this year the ESPN analysts are overly positive about every single pick

 

The days of real analysis are over. It is an entertainment show now and the entertainers can’t ruin the show with a negative take on ANY draft pick. Sad

 

 

You're right, but we shouldn't expect anything different.  The networks all live off the NFL, so they aren't going to bash the NFL.   It's all positive fluff.   

 

More to the point, the whole draft show seemed like an ad for the upcoming season.   After every pick, it sounded like some team just became a Super Bowl contender.   The truth is some of these guys will be great, most will be average and some will bust.  And the analysts don't know which is which.  So, they report on them like they're all great, with the objective of getting the fans feeling good about their team and anxious for the season to start.  

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

After more thought I'm thinking I dislike this pick. I was begrudgingly ok with another small ILB with the idea he would split time with Klein. 

But now I read Beane supposedly said he will play OLB. When? Milano never leaves the field. They almost never play 4-3. I guess you can play Milano at MLB in the nickel. He's had some snaps there before. 

Seems like a waste for the third round. 

Also it makes me even more sick that Beane thinks Bernard or Spector can compete for the MLB spot. 

Hope I'm wrong and we get more out of him in 2023 than they did from Bernard in 2022.

 

Milano gets dinged up quite a bit though and you want to have something solid behind him in the event he gets hurt. When he's not in the lineup, coverage really drops off from the LB position exponentially.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Shemp said:

 

I'd like to see Marino run our draft. I'm starting to think our guys are a bunch of bozos. I've had it with them...clueless about addressing the Bills' true needs.

 

Well, this bunch of bozos are several years in (this is their team), were 14-4 last year with 3 regular season losses by a total of 8 points, and are a perennial Super Bowl favorite. Sure, what a bunch of clowns. 

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

And what a shock! Bernard got on the field and was flat out terrible. He looked and played like lost-overmatched Safety.

 

Everyone has a first try, and they don't always go well.  Glad to know your first job, first work presentation, first everything, all went so fantastic that no one could critique them.  The question is, when there's a second try, which direction will the trend be?  Because of course, no one ever improves from their first time.

 

Bernard was playing for Milano, who is such an easy player to fill in for that when vet AJ Klein tried it a bunch of folks here called him "the worst player I'd ever seen".  And literally 4 games later, Klein was recognized as AFC defensive player of the week.  He adapted some, the scheme adapted some, it worked.

 

Complicating Bernard's outing was the fact that he was playing in front of backup safeties (Jacquan Johson and Hamlin).  I can say "someone wasn't in the right spot covering who they shoulda been covering" but I can't necessarily tell you who that was.

 

Milano didn't miss another game, so we didn't get a chance to see how that worked for Bernard.  I do think he needs to get stronger and more powerful.

 

But I think sensible people give a guy more than one chance before they count him out, (unless he does something outrageous like punch a ref or leave the field at halftime, which was not the case). 

 

 

27 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Milano gets dinged up quite a bit though and you want to have something solid behind him in the event he gets hurt. When he's not in the lineup, coverage really drops off from the LB position exponentially.

 

Milano struggled with some injuries his first few years.

 

Knock wood, last 2 years he's missed 1 game per season, plus a handful of other snaps (mostly in blowouts where he was pulled in the 4Q)

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Ok.  At the end of the day they will put the best 2 on the field. They want it to be Milano and Bernard right now.  If Bernard doesnt step up I think Williams would be given a chance.  I dont expect any GM or proclaim there 3 rd pick is starting day 1.  If they do that roster is subpar. 

 

Moreover making such a pronouncement would go against McDermott's mantra "nothing is given, everything is earned"

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Me bad, I did miss your sarcasm

 

I agree, I don't believe McDermott is looking for the prototypical shed linemen/blow up the run game "Thumper" at MLB.

Nope
 days of thumpers are mostly gone.

More wish than hope Bills were thinking 4-3 as base D 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

There's very few MLB's in the NFL that play in the 240's. 

 

The majority are in the 230's. And there's several in the 220's. 

 

Dorian Williams size is more the norm in today's NFL than the old school Ray Lewis prototype. 

 

He's length is also disproportionate. His hand size, arm size and wing span  are that of a 6'5" -6'6" player.

 

So, someone like Tremaine in that regard. Fans will want something just like Tremaine for old times sake.  😋

 

I honestly did not realize he was that long. That’s encouraging.