RD 3, Pick 91: LB Dorian Williams, Tulane

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, Bigvinny said:

Shout Podcast last night said the bills were eyeing an offensive player who was taken shortly before they picked Williams. Maybe Tyjae Spears. 

Another day 2 middling running back - this one with arthritis and no ACL in his knee - sounds spot-on 🤣!

[Heavy Kevi]

19 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Guy looks like he plays with some violence.

 

 

 

Man when you watch him talk in that zoom interview... It's like stevie Johnson and Tremaine had a baby.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We got way too close to Simpson to settle for this. Given the run on linebackers that happened here, I'd love to know if this was Beane's guy, or if he misplayed this due to lack of capital. Given what we paid to the FA guard, it seems weird to prioritize that position higher than a starting MLB.

If that’s true, he misplayed it, then why not take the trade downs that Beane said were offered? 

[Beck Water]

Oh Boy.  The Boo Birds are out in force, I see.

 

I don't know if Dorian Williams can start in the NFL or play MLB.  But let's deconstruct some of the stuff here. 

 

Fact or Cap?

1) "too small".  I looked up the height and weight from draft profiles on the current top-10 paid ILB in AAV. 

 

Roquan Smith 6'1" 236 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 8

Shaq Leonard 6'2 234 draft grade 6.3  rd 2 pick 4

Fred Warner 6'3" 236 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 6

Tremaine Edmunds 6'5" 253 draft grade 7.3 rd 1 pick 16

CJ Mosely 6'2" 234 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 17

Deion Jones 6'1" 222 draft grade 6.1  rd 2 pick 21

Devondre Campbell 6'4" 232 draft grade 5.8 rd 4 pick 17

Demario Davis 6'2" 235 draft grade 5.12???? rd 3 pick 14
Devin White 6'0" 237 draft grade 6.7 rd 1 pick 5

Eric Kendricks 6'0" 232 draft grade 6.2 rd 2 pick 13

 

Our rd 3 pick: Dorian Williams: 6'1" 228 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 28.

 

Top-10 have an average of 6'2" +/- 2".  4 out of 10 players are 6'1 or shorter.  Therefore 6'1" is not too short to be a top LB in the NFL.

Top-10 have a draft profile weight of 235 +/- 8.  Only 1 player was lighter.  Therefor 228 is light to be an ILB.  However, gaining 5-7 lbs of muscle does not seem like an unreasonable expectation for NFL-level S&C programs to help him achieve. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, Milano's draft profile reports his weight at 223.   Pretty sure he's gained about 10 lbs since then, and from the look of him it's all muscle.

 

Conclusion: Dorian Williams is not "too short" to play LB in the NFL.  He is a bit light, but that can probably be improved with off-season conditioning.

 

2) Overdrafted

 

First point I'd like to make is that pundits and teams have different draft evaluations.  Let's look at the order in which LBs were ranked by NFL.com and who has been drafted to date:

 

 

 

Top 15 LB by NFL drafted in rank order 2-4-1-12-5-3-13-9. 

Some of these teams had their choice of NFL.com higher-ranked players at the time they made their selection, and drafted players ranked much lower.

Every year we see this; we also see players who have lower draft grades outperform and have better careers than players with higher draft grades.

 

And NFL isn't an anomaly; you would see similar if you look at the "draft boards" of most pundits.

 

Conclusion: Draft selection probably reflects internal team "draft boards" which differ from team to team, vs "reaching".   

Now the quality of each team's internal draft board is another question.

 

Again: I can't tell you if Dorian Williams will become a capable starting LB in the NFL.  All I can tell you is that his measurables (height and weight, didn't go into things like arm length but he's OK there) are not out-of-range for successful starting NFL ILBs.    And I can't tell you if he's a 5th round player the Bills "reached" for; all I can tell you is that Zierlein of NFL.com had him evaluated as the 9th best LB in the draft and a 3rd-4th rounder, but the draft order of LB suggests that internally, many teams had very different internal evaluations of this LB class.

 

I imagine the Bills may have had 3-4 LB they would rather have drafted, but these weren't an option unless they moved up in the 3rd round.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Best Williams Available]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

I am just glad we are restocking our Williams’. 

Great observation. Beane has lagged where  Whaley excelled.

[Success]

28 minutes ago, Beast said:

My Steelers buddy reached out and told me the Steelers were high on this kid. Had him in for one of their 30 visitors and went to his pro day. Said he felt the Steelers were going to take him but the Bills did and they then took Washington.

 

I know, fan speculation but this guy is a football nut so who knows?

 

I've seen wildly different evaluations of this player since we picked him.  The word "steal" came up a few times, which I always like to see. But regardless, it seems like opinions are all over the place on where he can play, how effective he can be and how his size translates to the NFL.

 

Nothing we can do is fans but wait, and hope he works out great.

 

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, Best Williams Available said:

Great observation. Beane has lagged where  Whaley excelled.

 

LOL.  Isn't Phillips Beane's Williams?

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, Bigvinny said:

Shout Podcast last night said the bills were eyeing an offensive player who was taken shortly before they picked Williams. Maybe Tyjae Spears. 

Yeah Beane said they had an offensive player who was right there with their evaluation of Dorian and it was back and forth. He gave the impression that he would’ve taken that player over Dorian, but that he went “a little bit before.” I went back and looked at the picks and it was either a RB or WR that he was talking about. There was a run on both. I’m glad it wasn’t another 3rd round RB.

[SCBills]

Just now, Success said:

 

I've seen wildly different evaluations of this player since we picked him.  The word "steal" came up a few times, which I always like to see. But regardless, it seems like opinions are all over the place on where he can play, how effective he can be and how his size translates to the NFL.

 

Nothing we can do is fans but wait, and hope he works out great.

 

The ESPN broadcast was interesting..

 

They critiqued the **** out of Simpson & Henley (who went earlier in the round) by pointing out how talented/athletic they are, but they really struggle in processing and read/react instincts.  
 

Then they gushed over Overshown and Williams mainly due to their violence and processing skills. 
 

I like the player, just don’t understand the fit.   I think we all need to be patient and realize we also have no idea what McDermott’s defense will look like.   Maybe we see a 4-3/4-2-5 split instead of primarily a 4-2-5 defense. 

[KingBoots8]

So, I’ll be honest. I like they player, but not a huge fan of the pick at 91. Felt to me like we could have moved back and maybe got another 5th or 6th and still got him. That being said, you need a partner to move back with and there just may not have been one for us. Rather than risk it, if he’s the guy, go get him. 
 

personally I’d have seen if we could get back to the top of the 4th and gone for it. Maybe get a 6th rounder as compensation. I don’t think there was a true home-run pick at 91 as all my 3rd rounders were gone except Jones and AT Perry (who was my preferred choice honestly). That being said - I think he will be a good player and am not upset with the selection at all. McD is running the Defense now, and if this is his guy I have confidence he will pick whomever he thinks is the best option

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Again, the part where the Bills take a 228 pound linebacker and put him as a Special Teamer and backup on the outside at pick #91. 
 

Can’t play middle, and shocker, a guy who struggles against blocks at Tulane, let alone the NFL. 
 

The obsession with Special Teams continues. 

 

C'Mon man.  The Bills didn't draft either Bernard or Williams to play ST.

 

Some things show a value with special teams.  Signing Taiwan Jones 5 of McDermott's 6 seasons when he's played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps in the last 3 seasons and 0 last season.  Signing and resigning Tyler Matakevich when he played only 3 defensive snaps last season - clear the the Bills see him only as a ST at this point and he was signed as a FA specifically for his special teams skills.  Keeping Jake Kumerow over Isaiah Hodgins when there was a roster crunch at CB due to injuries and the need to activate Tre White without him being able to play - obviously Hodgins was a better backup WR than Kumerow and that showed a value for ST.

 

But drafting young LB in the 3rd round who can't immediately start is not that thing.  It's not what they were drafted for.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

So, I’ll be honest. I like they player, but not a huge fan of the pick at 91. Felt to me like we could have moved back and maybe got another 5th or 6th and still got him. That being said, you need a partner to move back with and there just may not have been one for us. Rather than risk it, if he’s the guy, go get him. 
 

personally I’d have seen if we could get back to the top of the 4th and gone for it. Maybe get a 6th rounder as compensation. I don’t think there was a true home-run pick at 91 as all my 3rd rounders were gone except Jones and AT Perry (who was my preferred choice honestly). That being said - I think he will be a good player and am not upset with the selection at all. McD is running the Defense now, and if this is his guy I have confidence he will pick whomever he thinks is the best option

 

So I looked Perry up - wow, he does sound intriguing.  But the bit about "erratic hands" and "his drops and ordinary ball skills sap some of the excitement" would concern me.

By Jones do you mean OT Dawand Jones?

[gjv]

50 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

How often are you right?  Is there any need to hope you're wrong?

Yes, there is certainly a need to hope. I hope Torrance develops some quickness so he is not eaten up by 3 technique tackles. I hope we stop drafting special teamers in the 3rd round. This is becoming a troublesome pattern.

[Warcodered]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

C'Mon man.  The Bills didn't draft either Bernard or Williams to play ST.

 

Some things show a value with special teams.  Signing Taiwan Jones 5 of McDermott's 6 seasons when he's played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps in the last 3 seasons and 0 last season.  Signing and resigning Tyler Matakevich when he played only 3 defensive snaps last season - clear the the Bills see him only as a ST at this point.  Keeping Jake Kumerow over Isaiah Hodgins when there was a roster crunch at CB due to injuries and the need to activate Tre White without him being able to play.

 

But drafting young LB in the 3rd round who can't immediately start is not that thing.  It's not what they were drafted for.

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Yeah Beane said they had an offensive player who was right there with their evaluation of Dorian and it was back and forth. He gave the impression that he would’ve taken that player over Dorian, but that he went “a little bit before.” I went back and looked at the picks and it was either a RB or WR that he was talking about. There was a run on both. I’m glad it wasn’t another 3rd round RB.

 

In the 3rd round?  I was looking, and picks 22-24, 26, 27 were defensive players.  The two closest offensive picks were RB Devon Achane at 21 and RB Tank Bigsby at 25.  WR pretty much went earlier in the round, and Tyjae Spears at 18.

 

I agree, another 3rd round RB would have been 😬 for me.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

It’s just PTSD from last years Bernard pick.  
 

And the previous years Basham pick. 
 

Two years in a row there was a pick universally hated by the fans, and two years in a row .. at least in terms of immediate returns.. the fans were proven correct. 
 

I like Dorian Williams as a prospect more than I liked Terrell Bernard, but it’s hard for me to say our FO deserves the benefit of the doubt when they do this. 

[Redneck]

13 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

I went to Tulane. Let’s go!!!

My daughter went to Tulane!

[buffaloboyinATL]

13 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

YES! It's like they say...  Special Teams wins championships!

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

 

The Steelers used to be talked about as "Linebacker U".  It used to be talked about how they would look for athletically promising guys in the 4th-5th round, start them out playing ST, 2nd year they might back up the starter, 3rd year they play more and 4th year start.  Of course, in the current NFL with a 4 year rookie contract, that means you get like 1.5 years of starting out of a guy and if he has a great season, he hits FA and prices himself out of your market.

 

But anyway, someone has to play ST and outside of 3-4 of core ST players in addition to the specialists, the guys who play ST are the backups, which only makes sense.

[Donuts and Doritos]

I'd rather they traded the pick for DHop or traded back. If they could have.