2023 offense has potential to be best in Bills history

[billsfan89]

I definitely am feeling a lot better about the offense in 2023 than I was going into 2022. I was really concerned about the O-line going into 2022, mainly Saffold at guard and the overall depth was massively lacking. From 2019 to 2021 the Bills had solid depth along the O-line. They usually went 8 deep with at least 3 quality backup O-line players behind the starting five. Players like Bates, Ty Nesheke, and others were on the bench entering the season. Going into 2022 not only was there a questionable situation with Saffold being a vet stop-gap but also the only decent backup was Queese. 

 

Going into 2023 not only is the guard situation much better with Torrence and McGovern the depth is a lot stronger. Bates is likely moved back to the bench which given his versatility is a big addition to the O-line's depth then the team added Edwards who helps the guard depth and brought back Queese who is a decent backup. That is in addition to the players they are kicking the tires on like Ike. While I would like a swing tackle who can compete with Brown and backup Dawkins the depth is at least credible to start the season. While the starting O-line is much better at guard in my opinion. 

 

After the O-line, I do feel like having Hines in as a gadget player/third-down back for the whole is going to be helpful (along with Hines kick return abilities helping the ST unit). While Cook as the lead back with Stevenson as the primary backup/power back makes me feel like at RB the team will likely be slightly better. 

 

Then at WR/TE I think that in addition to Kincaid adding a big receiving body the additions of Sheffield and Hardy over Mac and Kumerow provide a small upgrade while I hope Shakir and Davis develop more. Josh should have a better complement of targets to throw to in 2023. I don't think Shorter will have much of an impact in 2023 but I could be wrong, certainly a body added there. 

 

Overall I do think that McBeane did a pretty solid job on the offensive side of the ball in the off-season given the limited resources. The O-line is significantly better while the pool of targets for Josh is better and the RB situation is slightly better as well.  

[hondo in seattle]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I definitely am feeling a lot better about the offense in 2023 than I was going into 2022. I was really concerned about the O-line going into 2022, mainly Saffold at guard and the overall depth was massively lacking. From 2019 to 2021 the Bills had solid depth along the O-line. They usually went 8 deep with at least 3 quality backup O-line players behind the starting five. Players like Bates, Ty Nesheke, and others were on the bench entering the season. Going into 2022 not only was there a questionable situation with Saffold being a vet stop-gap but also the only decent backup was Queese. 

 

Going into 2023 not only is the guard situation much better with Torrence and McGovern the depth is a lot stronger. Bates is likely moved back to the bench which given his versatility is a big addition to the O-line's depth then the team added Edwards who helps the guard depth and brought back Queese who is a decent backup. That is in addition to the players they are kicking the tires on like Ike. While I would like a swing tackle who can compete with Brown and backup Dawkins the depth is at least credible to start the season. While the starting O-line is much better at guard in my opinion. 

 

After the O-line, I do feel like having Hines in as a gadget player/third-down back for the whole is going to be helpful (along with Hines kick return abilities helping the ST unit). While Cook as the lead back with Stevenson as the primary backup/power back makes me feel like at RB the team will likely be slightly better. 

 

Then at WR/TE I think that in addition to Kincaid adding a big receiving body the additions of Sheffield and Hardy over Mac and Kumerow provide a small upgrade while I hope Shakir and Davis develop more. Josh should have a better complement of targets to throw to in 2023. I don't think Shorter will have much of an impact in 2023 but I could be wrong, certainly a body added there. 

 

Overall I do think that McBeane did a pretty solid job on the offensive side of the ball in the off-season given the limited resources. The O-line is significantly better while the pool of targets for Josh is better and the RB situation is slightly better as well.  

 

It's weird - since we were getting all the Lombardi hype last year - but I feel a bit more optimistic this season.  

 

Too many question marks last year on offense:  two new starting receivers...  a new OC...  a suspect OL with questionable new starters...  

 

Questions abound again this season, on both sides of the ball.  But I think we've improved our receiving corps, RB room, and OL.  

[billsfan89]

On 5/9/2023 at 5:39 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

It's weird - since we were getting all the Lombardi hype last year - but I feel a bit more optimistic this season.  

 

Too many question marks last year on offense:  two new starting receivers...  a new OC...  a suspect OL with questionable new starters...  

 

Questions abound again this season, on both sides of the ball.  But I think we've improved our receiving corps, RB room, and OL.  

 

This season I think it is better the Bills fly under the radar a bit. The Jets are getting a lot of headlines with the Rodgers acquisition and the Bengals and KC are getting a lot of hype as well. The Bills have quietly put together a nice off-season improving the O-line (and O-line depth) and adding Kincaid as a weapon to the offense while adding some smaller pieces like Hardy and Sheffield. The ST unit also will see Hines returning the whole season and Hardy returning as well and should remain a strong unit that might be modestly better given the upgrade at both returner spots to start the season. 

 

However, the inverse of last season I do have some significant concerns about the defense. Last year the only player coming off a major injury was Tre, this season Hyde and Von are coming off serious injuries and Poyer is coming back after being banged up a lot (Not to mention all three are a year older) and the defense lost Edumonds whose loss, in my opinion, will be felt. While McBeane did add some depth at safety with Rapp and made a nice signing with Poona Ford I see some questions on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

I think defensively the Bills will fall to be a good but not great unit. Edumonds absence will be felt and I think age/injury will show in some capacity with Hyde/Poyer/Von. If the Bills can get some good development from Groot/AJ/Boogie/Elam/Benford and a contract year performance from Ed Oliver and a bounce back from Tre (further removed from a serious injury) and the older players hold up decently then the unit can be a top 5 unit. But that is a lot to break right. In reality, not all the young guns will develop and some of the older players will regress or get hurt. Hopefully, more breaks are right than goes wrong. 

 

But I was more than willing given the limited resources of the team to have the offense be the focus of the off-season and it for the most part was. I would rather invest in Josh and the offense even if it meant the defense takes a step down. 

[Simon Says]

Easy,now...tough to compare offenses from different eras.

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

Easy,now...tough to compare offenses from different eras.

Agree. It’s so much easiest to put up points and yards now. I struggle to see an offense better than those first SB years. They were loaded with HOFers. Only bills one I can put on par was 1st half of a season with Bledsoe. How many HOFers does this offense have? Maybe 2?

[folz]

I don't know if it will be the best Bills offense ever (love the enthusiasm though), but I have a hard time understanding anyone who doesn't think they have improved from last year. Sure, no big name FA...but that's not really what we needed (or could afford). We needed players to fit certain roles. While it's great to have MJ and Pippen, you still need your Cartwrights, Paxsons, Kerrs, Rodmans, etc. to win a championship.

 

Just look at the net gains (for an offense that was already 3rd in points last season):

 

Losses                                 Gains

Case Keenum                     Kyle Allen

Motor                                  Damien Harris

                                            Latavius Murray

                                            Hines (full offseason/year with team)

McKenzie                            Kincaid

                                            Harty

                                            Sherfield

                                            Shorter

Saffold                                McGovern

                                            Torrence

                                            Edwards

                                            Broeker

                                            Boettger (out all last year)

 

Keenum and Allen are a push at worst, and you could argue that Saffold and McKenzie are addition by subtraction. So, our only big loss is Singletary, replaced by Harris, Murray, Hines, and 2nd year Cook. 

 

The only other losses were receivers (none of whom played more than 6 games or did much of anything for the team last year):

Cole (2 games)

JB (3 games)

Crowder (4 games)

Kumerow (6 games)

Gentry (3 games)

Hodgins (2 games)

 

Plus Dorsey going into his second year, Kromer 2nd year, Cook 2nd year, Hines full off season/regular season, etc., etc.

 

Of course, not every addition (FA/rookie) will hit, or bust out, or whatever, but just look at the options we have now. And we don't need them all to be superstars (except Kincaid, hopefully), we just need them to play solid ball in the role that they have been brought in for.

 

 

I don't know about best Bills offense ever, but I do believe this is, by far, the deepest team that we have had since the Super Bowl years (on offense and defense)...Beane and McD are trying to make sure we don't have a repeat of last season...and I am all for it. What Beane did to fill out the team/fix issues from last season with a lack of funds this year is top notch, imo.

                                      

[Thrivefourfive]

Cannot forget how good Thurmal was. The Bills don’t have that weapon/center piece. 
 

Allen > Kelly

Thurman >> all the current backs combined

Reed > Diggs

90/91 OLine >>> ‘23 OLine

 

Supporting WR cast goes to red helmet Bills. We just haven’t an idea what the supporting cast will produce this season.

 

Tight end,, again another unknown for this current team. 
 

Here’s my deal breaker: Marchibroda + Kelly is miles better than Dorsey. 

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

This season I think it is better the Bills fly under the radar a bit. The Jets are getting a lot of headlines with the Rodgers acquisition and the Bengals and KC are getting a lot of hype as well. The Bills have quietly put together a nice off-season improving the O-line (and O-line depth) and adding Kincaid as a weapon to the offense while adding some smaller pieces like Hardy and Sheffield. The ST unit also will see Hines returning the whole season and Hardy returning as well and should remain a strong unit that might be modestly better given the upgrade at both returner spots to start the season. 

 

However, the inverse of last season I do have some significant concerns about the defense. Last year the only player coming off a major injury was Tre, this season Hyde and Von are coming off serious injuries and Poyer is coming back after being banged up a lot (Not to mention all three are a year older) and the defense lost Edumonds whose loss, in my opinion, will be felt. While McBeane did add some depth at safety with Rapp and made a nice signing with Poona Ford I see some questions on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

I think defensively the Bills will fall to be a good but not great unit. Edumonds absence will be felt and I think age/injury will show in some capacity with Hyde/Poyer/Von. If the Bills can get some good development from Groot/AJ/Boogie/Elam/Benford and a contract year performance from Ed Oliver and a bounce back from Tre (further removed from a serious injury) and the older players hold up decently then the unit can be a top 5 unit. But that is a lot to break right. In reality, not all the young guns will develop and some of the older players will regress or get hurt. Hopefully, more breaks are right than goes wrong. 

 

But I was more than willing given the limited resources of the team to have the offense be the focus of the off-season and it for the most part was. I would rather invest in Josh and the offense even if it meant the defense takes a step down. 

 

Yeah, how well guys will be recovered from last year's injuries worries me: Tre, Miller, Hyde, Poyer and let's not forget Josh.  I hope - we all hope - his UCL doesn't trouble him this season.  

[VW82]

I'm super bullish on our offense. Completely agree with OPer and a bunch of other good posts itt for all the reasons mentioned (Kinkaid, improved OL, etc.)

 

I'd add that Josh will presumably be healthy all year because he's a tank.

 

Kinkaid odds for OROY are currently +4000 on fanduel. If you aren't a believer in this crop of QBs, that's a nice little payout for a guy who should do a lot of damage given our embassment of skill player riches on offense. 

 

Also, between Torrence and Kinkaid, I immediately feel A LOT better about Spencer Brown. The top of our draft was all Touchdown.  

[Airseven]

On 5/8/2023 at 6:42 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

Answer 2 questions please.

Is Josh Allen a top 5 QB?

Can a team at any given year win a SB with a top 5 QB?

Pure talent and athleticism? Without question, top 3 QB, perhaps #1.
 

Consistency, poise, mechanics, accuracy? No, perhaps top 10 QB.

 

His ceiling is a skyscraper, but his floor remains troublingly low. The “top 5” QBs you mention who give a team a shot every year don’t implode like Allen.

 

He needs help. And committing to Dawkins and Brown ain’t it.

 

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

Pure talent and athleticism? Without question, top 3 QB, perhaps #1.
 

Consistency, poise, mechanics, accuracy? No, perhaps top 10 QB.

 

His ceiling is a skyscraper, but his floor remains troublingly low. The “top 5” QBs you mention who give a team a shot every year don’t implode like Allen.

 

He needs help. And committing to Dawkins and Brown ain’t it.

 

So PFF is wrong that he is ranked a top 3 QB in this league? You think all this offensive line just has Dawkins and Brown as good?  Implode like Allen?

 

You are either completely clueless or your one of the biggest troll's on this board. 

 

The dude was picked to win the MVP early last year pre elbow injury for christ sakes. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by PrimeTime101

[Eastport bills]

On 4/28/2023 at 10:23 AM, Success said:

This was a sneaky good offseason for our offense.

 

Kincaid brings a versatility we didn't have at TE, and will create match-up nightmares for opposing DC's.  The additions of Sherfield and Harty were low key, but give us even more versatility, speed, YAC - and all 3 new additions have great hands, which is something we lacked in '22.

 

Then you go to the RB unit. Damien Harris is the best RB we have had in years, with Cook coming into his 2nd year after coming on strong at the end of last season.  They complement each other well.

 

If Davis can get back to form, and Brown takes the leap and realizes his potential - this team could have the best offense in the league, and the best we've seen in Buffalo.  And I loved the K-Gun days, but this O could be better.

Nice optimistic take on the potential. The only problem I foresee is keeping the play calling unpredictable and multidimensional. Let’s see if this Kromer can get our O-line firing , opening running lanes for Harris, Cook, and Hines. We haven’t had a short yardage thumper in years, so maybe Murray can be that guy. Most importantly, Dorsey has to establish Kincaid, Knox as big targets opening up single coverages for our big play receivers ( Diggs and Davis). Sherfield and Hardy will be better than what we’ve had in 5 receiver sets so the personnel is there. Let’s hope Josh is serious about not taking big hits and not shouldering too much of the offense. A big year for us, let’s just stay healthy and get off to a good start.

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Nice optimistic take on the potential. The only problem I foresee is keeping the play calling unpredictable and multidimensional. Let’s see if this Kromer can get our O-line firing , opening running lanes for Harris, Cook, and Hines. We haven’t had a short yardage thumper in years, so maybe Murray can be that guy. Most importantly, Dorsey has to establish Kincaid, Knox as big targets opening up single coverages for our big play receivers ( Diggs and Davis). Sherfield and Hardy will be better than what we’ve had in 5 receiver sets so the personnel is there. Let’s hope Josh is serious about not taking big hits and not shouldering too much of the offense. A big year for us, let’s just stay healthy and get off to a good start.

People keep forgetting about Shakir,  He will be a big part of this offense in 2023

[Eastport bills]

19 minutes ago, ganesh said:

People keep forgetting about Shakir,  He will be a big part of this offense in 2023

Absolutely right, I completely forgot about him and he is really talented and not afraid of the  brightest spotlight. He looked good when given the opportunity last season. It’s just incredible how much depth we have at receiver.. Hard  to imagine anyone stopping our offense if the O-line shows improvement. So many options for Josh.

[Nihilarian]

As good as the 2023 Buffalo Bills offense might be there are some real questions about the 2023 offense going forward. 

 

In my view, the biggest question going forward has to be Bills OC, Ken Dorsey. Will the Bills ever build a decent run game to take the pressure off the QB when needed? The Buffalo QB should never again be the teams leading rusher in a game. That stuff needs to stop. I was hoping that was gone with Daboll. 

 

Also, I really was kind of thinking that Buffalo would make a trade for the Charger's RB Austin Ekeler. An RB who puts up numbers very similar to the guy everyone wanted in CMC. But then, is that Buffalo offensive line improved enough to actually open holes for the RBs this season?

 

The Bills moved on from Singletary who was pretty darn good with a 4.6 YPC AVG... considering he was being hit in the backfield so often. New Buffalo RB Damien Harris lost the starting job in NE and his YPC AVG has been declining from 5.0 to 4.6, and last season 4.4. Can he stay healthy?

 

 

 

The Jet's defense which was ranked #4 overall in 2022 should be improved as should the offense with QB Aaron Rodgers. If they can beat Buffalo with a scrub at QB...

They drafted a DE early and went O-line with the next two. 

 

The Dolphins also split with Buffalo and then almost beat Buffalo in a playoff game 34-31 with 7th-round Skylar Thompson at QB... talk about a scrub. Miami should not have been in either of those last two games and yet could have won both. Disconcerting...

That team has even more speed on offense now. That Dolphin defense got better with the new DC Vic Fangio along with Jalen Ramsey. Ex-Titan LB David Long.  Miami went 9-8 with a 20th-ranked defense last year.

 

The Patriots should have an actual offense this season... with an actual offensive coordinator in former OC Bill O'Brien. Rather than what they had last season in their old DC calling the offensive plays...what a joke!  Still, they went 8-9 with that clown show. The Patriots should be improved. 

 

The Buffalo offense seemed to fall off a cliff at the end of last season in the playoffs... the defense actually had excuses with so many injuries. 

 

A lot comes down to how improved that Buffalo offensive line is this season and if they can run the ball when needed. Lastly, I can't figure out if McD calling the defense will be better or worse. Who will play Mike? 

 

I'm not as optimistic as some here.  

[CincyBillsFan]

15 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The Buffalo offense seemed to fall off a cliff at the end of last season in the playoffs... the defense actually had excuses with so many injuries. 

 

You need to be a bit more specific here.  Against the Dolphins, IN THE PLAYOFFS, the Bills offense gained 423 yards and scored 34 points.  Hardly "falling off a cliff".  Sure they turned the ball over but that is not the same thing.

 

 

On 5/9/2023 at 12:16 PM, SoMAn said:

And IF Josh improves ball placement so it doesn’t need to be scooped from the turf, high-pointed, or have the WR slow up to catch the pass that should’ve been thrown 3 yards further.  

There was nothing wrong with Allen's ball placement.  In fact slightly under-throwing deep shots is by design to avoid missing a big gain on an overthrow. The reality, backed up by the stats and observations, is that Bills receivers didn't make a lot of great catches (by NFL standards) and dropped way more then their fair share of Allen's throws.

 

 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

38 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

You need to be a bit more specific here.  Against the Dolphins, IN THE PLAYOFFS, the Bills offense gained 423 yards and scored 34 points.  Hardly "falling off a cliff".  Sure they turned the ball over but that is not the same thing.

Stats...

 

That Miami playoff game shouldn't have even been close against a 20th-ranked Dolphins defense.  The Fins sacked Josh Allen 7x, he threw two INTs, and had 3x fumbles! Why? because the Bills...just... kept... throwing!

THIS is the reason that Buffalo desperately needs a strong run game. The final score was 34-31.  Sure, put it all on the QB! 

 

Problems? Dorsey, run game, O line. 

 

In the Bengals playoff game, the Buffalo offense scored a miserable 10 points and lost 27-10. It wasn't as close as the score suggests. Again, it was all on QB Josh Allen. The Buffalo run game went 19 rushes for 64 yards and Allen had 6 of those rushes... pathetic!  Meanwhile, the Bengals rushed 34 times for 172 yards.

Cincinnati had the 21st-ranked pass rush win rate in 2022 at 37% and Allen was under constant pressure. 

 

Problems? Dorsey, run game, O line.

 

Division foe stratagy. Find a way to get in the face of the Buffalo QB...and they got nothing else! 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Stats...

 

That Miami playoff game shouldn't have even been close against a 20th-ranked Dolphins defense.  The Fins sacked Josh Allen 7x, he threw two INTs, and had 3x fumbles! Why? because the Bills...just... kept... throwing!

THIS is the reason that Buffalo desperately needs a strong run game. The final score was 34-31.  Sure, put it all on the QB! 

 

Problems? Dorsey, run game, O line. 

 

In the Bengals playoff game, the Buffalo offense scored a miserable 10 points and lost 27-10. It wasn't as close as the score suggests. Again, it was all on QB Josh Allen. The Buffalo run game went 19 rushes for 64 yards and Allen had 6 of those rushes... pathetic!  Meanwhile, the Bengals rushed 34 times for 172 yards.

Cincinnati had the 21st-ranked pass rush win rate in 2022 at 37% and Allen was under constant pressure. 

 

Problems? Dorsey, run game, O line.

 

Division foe stratagy. Find a way to get in the face of the Buffalo QB...and they got nothing else! 

Your own post makes a strong case for the problem being almost entirely on the O line.  And saying we should have "run the ball more" conveniently forgets the frequent times RB's were stuffed for no gain or lost yards.  This of course put us in passing situations over and over again.

 

The fact is that Allen, in spite of playing injured, performed at a very high level considering how bad his O line was at the end of the season.  Bringing in 3 new guards and RT Brown being healthy for off season training should at least move the Bills from having one of the worst O lines in the NFL to having an average O line.  This alone will pay big dividends in 2023.

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

On 4/28/2023 at 10:52 AM, That's No Moon said:

The line is still a giant question.

McGivern, he’ll anyone is better than Saffold, worse than a Jamaica NY subway turnstyle, and Mount OCyrus looks very promising.

 

Spencer Brown as I’ve written several times had back and neck issues all off qseason last year, and no preparation prior to his rookie year due to COVID.  The year before he had no college season as it was again due to COVID.

 

He should be fine this year.

[machine gun kelly]

On 5/11/2023 at 3:23 PM, folz said:

I don't know if it will be the best Bills offense ever (love the enthusiasm though), but I have a hard time understanding anyone who doesn't think they have improved from last year. Sure, no big name FA...but that's not really what we needed (or could afford). We needed players to fit certain roles. While it's great to have MJ and Pippen, you still need your Cartwrights, Paxsons, Kerrs, Rodmans, etc. to win a championship.

 

Just look at the net gains (for an offense that was already 3rd in points last season):

 

Losses                                 Gains

Case Keenum                     Kyle Allen

Motor                                  Damien Harris

                                            Latavius Murray

                                            Hines (full offseason/year with team)

McKenzie                            Kincaid

                                            Harty

                                            Sherfield

                                            Shorter

Saffold                                McGovern

                                            Torrence

                                            Edwards

                                            Broeker

                                            Boettger (out all last year)

 

Keenum and Allen are a push at worst, and you could argue that Saffold and McKenzie are addition by subtraction. So, our only big loss is Singletary, replaced by Harris, Murray, Hines, and 2nd year Cook. 

 

The only other losses were receivers (none of whom played more than 6 games or did much of anything for the team last year):

Cole (2 games)

JB (3 games)

Crowder (4 games)

Kumerow (6 games)

Gentry (3 games)

Hodgins (2 games)

 

Plus Dorsey going into his second year, Kromer 2nd year, Cook 2nd year, Hines full off season/regular season, etc., etc.

 

Of course, not every addition (FA/rookie) will hit, or bust out, or whatever, but just look at the options we have now. And we don't need them all to be superstars (except Kincaid, hopefully), we just need them to play solid ball in the role that they have been brought in for.

 

 

I don't know about best Bills offense ever, but I do believe this is, by far, the deepest team that we have had since the Super Bowl years (on offense and defense)...Beane and McD are trying to make sure we don't have a repeat of last season...and I am all for it. What Beane did to fill out the team/fix issues from last season with a lack of funds this year is top notch, imo.

                                      

 

Very well written and thoughtful and agreed on all points.