Idle Speculation on who will be the Bills Pick at #59

[Kaenon]

Who is playing MLB on this team?

Is he on the roster..? Thought that's what the brass said.

[John from Riverside]

He’s probably gonna go right at the top of the second round but I would take Matt Bergeron if he falls

[jahnyc]

This may be their best opportunity to recoup the 4th round pick they traded away to move up to draft Kincaid.  I would think trading out of this pick is a strong possibility.

[MasterStrategist]

1. MLB: what do they plan here?  Young players on the roster, 3rd round pick LY.  But unproven.  To me, this is highest need, but they could get creative with rotating players.

 

2. RT: what do they truly think of Spencer? Tonight will tell us alot about that confidence.  I'm cautiously optimistic on him.

 

3. DT: were running it back with the same crew, so it appears. But, I think a talented 1-tech could be a key missing piece.  Take more pressure off drafting a MLB as well. Daquan is our only true 1, and nobody under contract after this season.

 

4. DE: same as above, running it back.  I'm not a fan of Aje or Boogie, we could use another "speed/bend" rusher...and with Von coming off an ACL, this ranks high on my list of potential immediate impact

 

5. WR: drafting Kincaid doesn't stop us from adding more here.  But we have a solid group, could look for a true slot...ie: Downs or Jayden Reed.  But there's only 1 ball to distribute, and Shakir could turn into our future slot.

 

6. IOL: another area we have alot of "depth", and spent on Connor this FA.  I'm not as big a fan of Bates, but I have a different philosophy with my guards (rather see mauler types and tackles that are finesse).  I'd love to see us take an IOL tonight.

 

All this said, if I'm Beane, tonight is spent on trenches.  Specifically, an IOL (that could also compete at RT) and a 1-tech DT.  

 

 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know I'm in the minority, but I truly believe that they like their LB room a lot more than we want to think.

 

They are comfortable with Dodson. I think he's the vet in the room that has been in the system for a while. He's likely the guy the view as a steady guy that can hold it down. They just spent a 3rd last year on Bernard because they saw something in him. He's the guy I'm betting they HOPE can come in and take the spot away from Dodson. Then there's Spector and AJK are both wild cards in the mix. 

 

Not saying they won't add to that if value meets the pick but I don't think they view it as much of a need as we do.

 

Now DT, that's another thing altogether. That's what I expect to see a focus on along with either an OL or safety tonight.

Been saying this about our LBs

We were 4-0 with Dodson starting last year.

Hope Bernard makes a jump and let them 4 battle it out.

 

As far as 2nd rd goes, I know Beane trusts his board, if they can get a quality addition,  move up if needed 

[Yantha]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I expect to update this later before the second round of the draft starts. But with where we stand right now, I feel very in the dark about where the Bills go next. I will commit before the second round starts though.   A side note - this is the first draft in a while that Joe Shoen did not at least help Beane prepare for.  Some of the past "drafting traits" may have moved to NY.   Offense and being an older player were both outside the Beane era mold. 

 

I am not sure how to interpret the first round selection.  I felt strongly the Bills would go offense in the first round.  To me, Kincaid was not just the player that will help the Bills the most on offense in 2023, but was also the BPA at the selection.  But a string of very good defensive players went in the rest of the round after the Bills took Kincaid which  indicates a committment to offense. 

Scenario 1 - Bills are committed to this draft being about optimizing the offense.  The next logical step in this scenario is improving the oline. One thing I took away from the first round selection is that while Dawson Knox is a very good and highly compensated player, the Bills did not worry about hurting his feelings with the pick.  I don't think they care anymore about Spencer Brown's, Mitch Morse's or Ryan Bates feelings.   

Based on this line of thinking there seems to be a 1A and a 1B plan.  IA is standing pat, and hoping Matthew Beregon, Joe Tipmann, or John Michael Schmitz falls to that position. I think there is a real possibility one of them could be there.  It seems unlikely the top IOL players 0'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila will be there at that pick.  This brings us to the 1B plan.  Maybe the Bills are happy to get 2 quality picks in the draft, and are willing to use further draft capital, or future draft capital to move up for Torrence or Avila.  The Bills are a pretty complete team now, and I am not sure we need to be stocking the practice roster.  So I think this is a viable option. Our second and third rounder, probably allows you to get one of Torrence and Avila. 

Scenario 2 - The Bills took Kincaid because he was BPA, and that is the modus operandi for the draft.  I don't think they expected Kincaid to fall (although a number of internet simulation programs in the last week leading up to the draft did have Kincaid falling).  I think other players fans are high on will also fall unexpectedly to 59.  In that case I would expect the Bills to be neutral on offense vs defense and pick the BPA.  I think this group will include some of the players in this big group: WRs - Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo.  CB's Julius Brent, DJ Turner and Tryique Stevenson Other Defense, Trenton Simpson, Antonio Johnson, Tuli Tuipulotu, Derrick Hall, and Olinemen Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron, and Cody Mauch.      At this point it is tough to separate what I would want, from what I think the Bills would do.  But if all of those players are available, and the Bills are neutral on BPA, I think it would be one of the cornerbacks.  The 2B plan is to trade up to take Joey Porter who seems to be the true BPA going into the second round.  If he gets past Pittsburg, a 2&3 would might allow us to get Porter.  This would be a home run. 

Scenario 3 - A shift to defensive need - I think there is a fan consensus the Bills current hole on defense at LB and future hole on the Dline with the expected departure of Ed Oliver next year.  In this case, I would expect the Bills to stand pat and take Drew Sanders or Trent Simpson, in that order, if they fall to 59. Otherwise it would likely be whoever they think is the best defensive interior lineman fit for the Bills. Keeanu Benton sticks out as the best of the the interior limeman who has a good chance of being available at that pick. 

Overall, I think the Bills will be best served for 2023 and beyond by scenario 1. 

Thanks for the excellent post!

 

Great reference heading into this evening.

 

Personally I think it could go with any scenario outlined, and it will all depend on how the first 10 picks play out.  We don't have a 4th rounder now.

 

My thoughts are that we still need a MLB and RT as players who would compete to start, and the rest will be just roster fillers (with upside).

 

I'd be okay with losing Oliver in a trade that gets us to the top of round 2, and maybe gives us a day 3 pick to sweeten the deal.

[SCBills]

I’d have to say, I’d be surprised if they go slot WR after the Kincaid pick.  
 

He’s a TE, but will likely play a ton of big slot for us this year.  
 

Essentially Diggs - Kincaid - Davis, with Knox and a RB. 
 

Diggs, Shakir and Harty will all play inside/outside and Sherfield is a depth slot option.  
 

Mingo and Hyatt make sense, but I’m not really sure guys like Downs do anymore. At least, that’s my opinion after the Kincaid addition. 
 

Edited April 28, 2023 by SCBills

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

i'd be fine with trading up a later round pick in this draft to move ahead a little if someone like Porter Jr, Hyatt, or maybe Sanders was there.

 

otherwise, i sit tight, BPA and throw a 3rd to AZ for a last chance at Hopkins.

CB actually makes a lot of sense to me of the value is there and if they believe the CB is better than Benford/available safeties.  Tre probably is in his last year.  Rookie corner plays next year; Benford slides over to safety, and away we go.  Not a bad way to remake the secondary on the fly. 

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I’d have to say, I’d be surprised if they go slot WR after the Kincaid pick.  
 

He’s a TE, but will likely play a ton of big slot for us this year.  
 

Essentially Diggs - Kincaid - Davis, with Knox and a RB. 
 

Diggs, Shakir and Harty will all play inside/outside and Sherfield is a depth slot option.  
 

Mingo and Hyatt make sense, but I’m not really sure guys like Downs do anymore. At least, that’s my opinion after the Kincaid addition. 
 

I’m with you on WR.  I think they’re looking boundary now after the Kincaid pick. 

[Lofton80]

My guess is DT. A lasting memory of the Cinci home playoff beatdown is Ed Oliver being pushed 5 yards backwards in the snow by the Cinci Oline. I the weather and injuries were factors but I think they add a big strong defensive tackle that can be rotated in in the event that situation comes up again. Gervon Dexter is the guy if he is still on the board. 

 

I don' think Bergeron makes it to 59. They have the hole at LB so if Sanders or Henley are there maybe they go that route. 

[Yantha]

I've got 14 prospects that I would be happy with for the Bills in round 2 (with round 1 and 2 grades).  

Edited April 28, 2023 by Yantha

[NeverOutNick]

I agree O line feels like the way we will go 2nd round and I’m really hoping for Michael Schmitz but honestly if they like one of the OTs better I’m on board there as well. 
 

Still dreaming that AZ says screw it and says you know what Buffalo, we’ll give you the Allen Robinson discount and you can have Hopkins for a 6th rounder

 

Super stoked that we got Kincaid though 

[Yantha]

5 minutes ago, Lofton80 said:

My guess is DT. A lasting memory of the Cinci home playoff beatdown is Ed Oliver being pushed 5 yards backwards in the snow by the Cinci Oline. I the weather and injuries were factors but I think they add a big strong defensive tackle that can be rotated in in the event that situation comes up again. Gervon Dexter is the guy if he is still on the board. 

 

I don' think Bergeron makes it to 59. They have the hole at LB so if Sanders or Henley are there maybe they go that route. 

 

I like Henley but think he's more suited for a SAM linebacker role, not so much MLB.  

I'd much prefer Trenton Simpson.

[Warriorspikes51]

I'm going rogue....

TE Darnell Washington.   

The Chiefs have had a lot of success utilizing all 4 of their TE's to create mismatches on defense

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'm going rogue....

TE Darnell Washington.   

The Chiefs have had a lot of success utilizing all 4 of their TE's to create mismatches on defense

That would be fun.  And I would not be opposed.  But I think he will be gone before 59, and trading up twice for TE's in the same draft, when one of your most expensive players is a TE, seems like career suicide, if you don't win the super bowl in 2023. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'm going rogue....

TE Darnell Washington.   

The Chiefs have had a lot of success utilizing all 4 of their TE's to create mismatches on defense

You just want to see some on this board have a complete meltdown, don’t you? 😎

 

Personally, I’m pulling for the Bills somehow landing Trenton Simpson tonight or another LB to their liking, although would also be happy with more help in the trenches.

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Been saying this about our LBs

We were 4-0 with Dodson starting last year.

Hope Bernard makes a jump and let them 4 battle it out.

 

As far as 2nd rd goes, I know Beane trusts his board, if they can get a quality addition,  move up if needed 

I have little confidence in the Bills LBs with the exception of Milano. 

 

What do you see in Dodson or Bernard that makes you think they are or will be a quality starter? I'm sorry I don't see it.

 

Optimism is great but I'd rather really on talent and play on the field. Neither guy looks very good to me.

 

The Bills badly need an upgrade but I'd rather say "F" the defense and go all in on the O. Not popular but I'm tired of Allen not having protection, weapons, good play calling, and a disappointing D in the playoffs. 

[Warriorspikes51]

How about Mingo?  Then we can rotate him with Davis and move Davis inside with Kincaid on 4WR sets 

[glazeduck]

Regarding trading up/down or not...

 

I think you HAVE to get another player you think can be a difference maker at a position of need...  We need interior OLmen, LB and DL and there's a number still available at each position.

 

If that means moving up because they fly off the board? Go do it. If they slide because other positions get drafted to where you can move back and still get one of those guys? Even better.

But you cannot trade down to recoup a worse pick just to do that. In my eyes there's about 10 guys that we need to make sure we get at least one of. THAT'S the priority...

[UKBillFan]

The way Beane was talking about the loss of the fourth round pick yesterday I wouldn't be surprised if we traded back in the second or third to get it back.

[Bag of Milk]

5 hours ago, Motor26 said:

They will take BPA. 

At a position of need