Idle Speculation on who will be the Bills Pick at #59

[Chaos]

I expect to update this later before the second round of the draft starts. But with where we stand right now, I feel very in the dark about where the Bills go next. I will commit before the second round starts though.   A side note - this is the first draft in a while that Joe Shoen did not at least help Beane prepare for.  Some of the past "drafting traits" may have moved to NY.   Offense and being an older player were both outside the Beane era mold. 

 

I am not sure how to interpret the first round selection.  I felt strongly the Bills would go offense in the first round.  To me, Kincaid was not just the player that will help the Bills the most on offense in 2023, but was also the BPA at the selection.  But a string of very good defensive players went in the rest of the round after the Bills took Kincaid which  indicates a committment to offense. 

Scenario 1 - Bills are committed to this draft being about optimizing the offense.  The next logical step in this scenario is improving the oline. One thing I took away from the first round selection is that while Dawson Knox is a very good and highly compensated player, the Bills did not worry about hurting his feelings with the pick.  I don't think they care anymore about Spencer Brown's, Mitch Morse's or Ryan Bates feelings.   

Based on this line of thinking there seems to be a 1A and a 1B plan.  IA is standing pat, and hoping Matthew Beregon, Joe Tipmann, or John Michael Schmitz falls to that position. I think there is a real possibility one of them could be there.  It seems unlikely the top IOL players 0'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila will be there at that pick.  This brings us to the 1B plan.  Maybe the Bills are happy to get 2 quality picks in the draft, and are willing to use further draft capital, or future draft capital to move up for Torrence or Avila.  The Bills are a pretty complete team now, and I am not sure we need to be stocking the practice roster.  So I think this is a viable option. Our second and third rounder, probably allows you to get one of Torrence and Avila. 

Scenario 2 - The Bills took Kincaid because he was BPA, and that is the modus operandi for the draft.  I don't think they expected Kincaid to fall (although a number of internet simulation programs in the last week leading up to the draft did have Kincaid falling).  I think other players fans are high on will also fall unexpectedly to 59.  In that case I would expect the Bills to be neutral on offense vs defense and pick the BPA.  I think this group will include some of the players in this big group: WRs - Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo.  CB's Julius Brent, DJ Turner and Tryique Stevenson Other Defense, Trenton Simpson, Antonio Johnson, Tuli Tuipulotu, Derrick Hall, and Olinemen Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron, and Cody Mauch.      At this point it is tough to separate what I would want, from what I think the Bills would do.  But if all of those players are available, and the Bills are neutral on BPA, I think it would be one of the cornerbacks.  The 2B plan is to trade up to take Joey Porter who seems to be the true BPA going into the second round.  If he gets past Pittsburg, a 2&3 would might allow us to get Porter.  This would be a home run. 

Scenario 3 - A shift to defensive need - I think there is a fan consensus the Bills current hole on defense at LB and future hole on the Dline with the expected departure of Ed Oliver next year.  In this case, I would expect the Bills to stand pat and take Drew Sanders or Trent Simpson, in that order, if they fall to 59. Otherwise it would likely be whoever they think is the best defensive interior lineman fit for the Bills. Keeanu Benton sticks out as the best of the the interior limeman who has a good chance of being available at that pick. 

Overall, I think the Bills will be best served for 2023 and beyond by scenario 1. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Chaos

[SoCal Deek]

Chaos, I think it’s the stacked roster scenario. There’s very little point in loading up on draft picks if they’re all getting cut. I’m thinking we’re moving up again and getting the OL or MLB they want and need. Quality over Quantity! 

[gonzo1105]

2 is very possible. Just like last night, there are going to be people that were expected to go lower going higher and vice versa. I will be on the Joe Tippmann, Matthew Bergeron, Quan Martin train tonight though if anyone wants to join in 

[LabattBlue]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Chaos, I think it’s the stacked roster scenario. There’s very little point in loading up on draft picks if they’re all getting cut. I’m thinking we’re moving up again and getting the OL or MLB they want and need. Quality over Quantity! 

This stacked roster is not so stacked. You have a starting center with scrambled eggs for a brain, no starting LB to put next to Milano, two aging safeties, and a major question mark at RT. 

[K D]

They will say BPA but I think they are targeting LB and will probably try and move up again if they don't think their guy will last. I think they probably like Sanders. He's the typical Beane pick where he's a good athlete but not polished and he thinks he can be coached up

[Milanos Milano]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Chaos, I think it’s the stacked roster scenario. There’s very little point in loading up on draft picks if they’re all getting cut. I’m thinking we’re moving up again and getting the OL or MLB they want and need. Quality over Quantity! 

Avila if we are trading up. Please 

[clayboy54]

11 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

This stacked roster is not so stacked. You have a starting center with scrambled eggs for a brain, no starting LB to put next to Milano, two aging safeties, and a major question mark at RT. 

Tippman - C at #59

[boyst]

i'd be fine with trading up a later round pick in this draft to move ahead a little if someone like Porter Jr, Hyatt, or maybe Sanders was there.

 

otherwise, i sit tight, BPA and throw a 3rd to AZ for a last chance at Hopkins.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I know I'm in the minority, but I truly believe that they like their LB room a lot more than we want to think.

 

They are comfortable with Dodson. I think he's the vet in the room that has been in the system for a while. He's likely the guy the view as a steady guy that can hold it down. They just spent a 3rd last year on Bernard because they saw something in him. He's the guy I'm betting they HOPE can come in and take the spot away from Dodson. Then there's Spector and AJK are both wild cards in the mix. 

 

Not saying they won't add to that if value meets the pick but I don't think they view it as much of a need as we do.

 

Now DT, that's another thing altogether. That's what I expect to see a focus on along with either an OL or safety tonight.

[damj]

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Chaos, I think it’s the stacked roster scenario. There’s very little point in loading up on draft picks if they’re all getting cut. I’m thinking we’re moving up again and getting the OL or MLB they want and need. Quality over Quantity! 

Agreed. Identify your impact players and go up and get them, especially where there is a clear need

[Floydboy12]

I think one of the 3 top Centers (Tippmann, Schmitz, Wypler), could be available when we pick. I would be happy with any of the 3. Also I won’t be shocked if a guy like Hiatt drops. He doesn’t run routes. But at 59 he may be worth a look. 

[Royale with Cheese]

The Bills have been looking at a 2 tight end set for the last years.  We brought on OJ Howard and Jacob Hollister to fill that role but those didn't work out.

Like Beane said, with Kincaid on the field, defenses will have to go more nickel which opens up more things for us on offense.

 

I don't think "feelings" have anything to do with it.  Knox is the traditional TE and Kincaid is the "F"...I just learned that term last night lol.  Knox is going to still play a lot.

Morse is our starting center for sure but I think both guard spots are up for grabs.  If they take a RT today, that position is up for grabs as well.

[BobbyC81]

41 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Scenario 1 - Bills are committed to this draft being about optimizing the offense.  The next logical step in this scenario is improving the oline. One thing I took away from the first round selection is that while Dawson Knox is a very good and highly compensated player, the Bills did not worry about hurting his feelings with the pick.  I don't think they care anymore about Spencer Brown's, Mitch Morse's or Ryan Bates feelings.   

Based on this line of thinking there seems to be a 1A and a 1B plan.  IA is standing pat, and hoping Matthew Beregon, Joe Tipmann, or John Michael Schmitz falls to that position. I think there is a real possibility one of them could be there.  It seems unlikely the top IOL players 0'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila will be there at that pick.  This brings us to the 1B plan.  Maybe the Bills are happy to get 2 quality picks in the draft, and are willing to use further draft capital, or future draft capital to move up for Torrence or Avila.  The Bills are a pretty complete team now, and I am not sure we need to be stocking the practice roster.  So I think this is a viable option. Our second and third rounder, probably allows you to get one of Torrence and Avila. 

Overall, I think the Bills will be best served for 2023 and beyond by scenario 1. 

That is what they did in the 2018 draft. Traded up to get Josh, then traded back into the first for Edmunds.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Lots of WRs should still be on the board. I wouldn’t rule out a trade up as well in round 2. Marvin Mims at 59 would make me happy, seems most of the guys ranked for the spots we’d be picking are mostly edge, WRs, and safeties. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know I'm in the minority, but I truly believe that they like their LB room a lot more than we want to think.

 

They are comfortable with Dodson. I think he's the vet in the room that has been in the system for a while. He's likely the guy the view as a steady guy that can hold it down. They just spent a 3rd last year on Bernard because they saw something in him. He's the guy I'm betting they HOPE can come in and take the spot away from Dodson. Then there's Spector and AJK are both wild cards in the mix. 

 

Not saying they won't add to that if value meets the pick but I don't think they view it as much of a need as we do.

 

Now DT, that's another thing altogether. That's what I expect to see a focus on along with either an OL or safety tonight.

I’ve been open to that reality all spring, even did a thread on it. I think there is a real shot that if Bernard is viewed a OLB and we plan on seeing 3 LBers more this year (something McD is known for), then there are LBers that can be had in round 2 or round 3 that can likely dethrone Dodson and Klein at some point in September. 
 

I wasn’t shy about my opinion that Jack Campbell was a April 28th starting LB on this team, but Sanders, Simpson, 22oh, and Henley can all probably be a starting MLB on this team. They would just require more developmental time.

[SCBills]

53 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

This stacked roster is not so stacked. You have a starting center with scrambled eggs for a brain, no starting LB to put next to Milano, two aging safeties, and a major question mark at RT. 

Hyde & Poyer are your starting safeties this year.   Most teams would love to be in our situation at Safety, especially with Rapp & (maybe) Hamlin as depth, and a guy like Benford to potentially cross-train.  
 

Im not, at all, in the mood to be drafting a Day 2 guy who we hope wont play this year.  
 

You think LB is a need.  Who knows what the Bills think.  We have numbers at LB with Bernard, Klein, Dodson and Spector… I get that you may not like any of them as starters, but if Sanders goes before we pick, I’m not sure anyone is an upgrade over hoping Bernard makes a jump in Year 2.  
 

I agree with you at RT, but also understand the Bills faith in Brown given what he’s dealt with the past few years and his utterly ridiculous potential if he puts it together. 
 

Morse is definitely a conundrum with the concussions.  Could play another 2-3 years and have no issues.  Could get his bell rung in preseason and he out the first quarter of the season.   IOL makes sense for us, but if he stays healthy, we have our penciled in starters, along with solid depth in Ike and Edwards.  
 

My only want from the FO is that given the scarcity of picks we have for this draft, every player we take needs to be rosterable.   No more Wildgoose, Anderson, Tenuta, Hodgins, Blackshear situations.  With only 4 picks left, and our salary cap situation, they need to be guys who make the active roster. 
 

Edited April 28, 2023 by SCBills

[RyanC883]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know I'm in the minority, but I truly believe that they like their LB room a lot more than we want to think.

 

They are comfortable with Dodson. I think he's the vet in the room that has been in the system for a while. He's likely the guy the view as a steady guy that can hold it down. They just spent a 3rd last year on Bernard because they saw something in him. He's the guy I'm betting they HOPE can come in and take the spot away from Dodson. Then there's Spector and AJK are both wild cards in the mix. 

 

Not saying they won't add to that if value meets the pick but I don't think they view it as much of a need as we do.

 

Now DT, that's another thing altogether. That's what I expect to see a focus on along with either an OL or safety tonight.

 

I hope you are correct.  WR and OL are still needed and have better available players at this time than LB.  Get a LB later in the draft like Dorian Williams. 

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Hyde & Poyer are your starting safeties this year.   Most teams would love to be in our situation at Safety, especially with Rapp & (maybe) Hamlin as depth, and a guy like Benford to potentially cross-train.  
 

Im not, at all, in the mood to be drafting a Day 2 guy who we hope wont play this year.  
 

You think LB is a need.  Who knows what the Bills think.  We have numbers at LB with Bernard, Klein, Dodson and Spector… I get that you may not like any of them as starters, but if Sanders goes before we pick, I’m not sure anyone is an upgrade over hoping Bernard makes a jump in Year 2.  
 

I agree with you at RT, but also understand the Bills faith in Brown given what he’s dealt with the past few years and his utterly ridiculous potential if he puts it together. 
 

Morse is definitely a conundrum with the concussions.  Could play another 2-3 years and have no issues.  Could get his bell rung in preseason and he out the first quarter of the season.   IOL makes sense for us, but if he stays healthy, we have our penciled in starters, along with solid depth in Ike and Edwards.  
 

My only want from the FO is that given the scarcity of picks we have for this draft, every player we take needs to be rosterable.   No more Wildgoose, Anderson, Tenuta, Hodgins, Blackshear situations.  With only 4 picks left, and our salary cap situation, they need to be guys who make the active roster. 
 

 

I think you go after Avila here.  Can play C, G or even RT.  I can’t imagine going into the season with Brown as the starter and no competition or at least a safety play backup in case he does not put it together.  Avila provides a backup to Morse, and likely starts at G.  Can play RT also.  

[colin]

i think they will grab the highest rated guy they have who plays OL/LB/DT, in that order of priority

[Motor26]

They will take BPA. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I think @Virgil should put together a poll everyone can complain about