2023 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[SCBills]

Beane stated he did not have RD1 grades on all the WR’s that went before us.  
 

Who are we thinking had RD1 grades for us?

 

Im guessing JSN and Addison.  
 

No to Flowers and Johnston.  

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

TE is always the best friend of a QB under duress, yet Josh rarely tossed his way.  It's hard to believe it was because he was so wide open.

 

And yet, at times, it was so.

 

It has been so with other receivers.  When he came out, Josh actually struggled the most with accuracy on short passes, which fed into his natural desire to go for the "kill shot".  One of the reason why our receivers don't get the YAC, historically, is because Josh won't take the underneath throw until he's absolutely certain he can't go deep (by which time coverage has caught up enough to tackle promptly), and even then he will make dangerous throws deep into coverage.  He "got over" this and was absolutely surgical in some games early in the season - but then "reverted" or "regressed" late in the season.  If it's true that he had to revert to his early-career lateral throwing motion vs. his now-preferred rotational motion due to the UCL tear, perhaps that explains it.

 

BTW, what's your feeling now on PRP injections?  IIRC a bit ago, you weren't at all a fan.  I admit, it does seem a bit hoo-doo to me.

[HappyDays]

24 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Beane stated he did not have RD1 grades on all the WR’s that went before us.  
 

Who are we thinking had RD1 grades for us?

 

Im guessing JSN and Addison.  
 

No to Flowers and Johnston.  

 

I heard from a credible source that they really liked Addison. I wouldn't be surprised if QJ was someone they had a 1st round grade on because he fits their usual profile. Flowers is limited by his arm length and JSN has a medical flag so I'd be surprised if either of them were 1st round targets. My guess is they looked at their board after QJ was picked by the Chargers and were content with either Addison or Kincaid. Once Addison got picked that's when they probably started calling up to make sure they got Kincaid before they reached a talent cliff on their board.

[Mr. WEO]

30 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

And yet, at times, it was so.

 

It has been so with other receivers.  When he came out, Josh actually struggled the most with accuracy on short passes, which fed into his natural desire to go for the "kill shot".  One of the reason why our receivers don't get the YAC, historically, is because Josh won't take the underneath throw until he's absolutely certain he can't go deep (by which time coverage has caught up enough to tackle promptly), and even then he will make dangerous throws deep into coverage.  He "got over" this and was absolutely surgical in some games early in the season - but then "reverted" or "regressed" late in the season.  If it's true that he had to revert to his early-career lateral throwing motion vs. his now-preferred rotational motion due to the UCL tear, perhaps that explains it.

 

BTW, what's your feeling now on PRP injections?  IIRC a bit ago, you weren't at all a fan.  I admit, it does seem a bit hoo-doo to me.

 

This gets said a lot, yet he had only 51 passes over 20 yards--12 of those over 40 yards, out of 567 attempts. 

 

I'm not up on the PRP.  It might have a significant placebo effect.  Plus, there are likely  a high number of "PRP shops" that do this with little regulation--like the GYN office that also has a med spa doing botox and filler injections.

[UKBillFan]

A great read as ever, GunnerBill.

 

I do have an opinion on this but would be interested in the thoughts of others - is the common consensus that the Jets and Cowboys both want to trade back once their picks had been selected by the Steelers and the Bills, only failing to find an appropriate deal so took their BPA?

[PrimeTime101]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I absolutely loved that first round! It was bonkers, it was crazy, there were trades all over the place and there was a nice balance between the things that felt true in January (Young and Stroud 1&2, Will Anderson being the first non-QB, the Titans being all in on offensive line, Nolan Smith being a late 1st) and the things that have been trendier as we have gone through the process (Emmanuel Forbes going high, the receiver run not starting until later, Darnell Wright being a top 10 pick)!!  So here are my thoughts on where that leaves us with day 1 in the books.

 

The Bills Pick

In what felt very much like a repeat of last year Brandon Beane flipped his 4th round pick to move up a few spots in the latter portion of round 1 to make sure he snagged a guy who was high on his board before the drop off in talent hit. Beane confirmed in the press conference last night that the Bills did not have first round grades on all four of the receivers that went in that crazy run from pick 20 to pick 23, however I still believe that there were at least a couple of guys in that run that they would have coveted at #27. Once all 4 were gone he started calling up - the Giants and Jacksonville - to get ahead of the Cowboys for Dalton Kincaid. So what I like about the pick and the process is it says to me that there was an absolute commitment to getting a weapon for Josh Allen. The AFC is an arms race right now. The Bengals have great weapons, the Chargers just added a dynamic element to their offensive skill positions, the Ravens have suddenly gone from a weak set of weapons to a potentially nice looking combination. The Bills have got to make sure they keep up and their focus was clearly on adding an offensive playmaker. Kincaid was the 18th overall player on my big board and by the time the Bills picked he was the 5th best remaining and the best remaining offensive player.

 

As for Kincaid himself, I think he does shift the paradigm and said so in another thread recently. This is a guy you can put on the field with Dawson Knox and create a bunch of different mismatches. He essentially is your Cole Beasley replacement in a different body type. He is a "big slot" more than a true tight end. He runs really good routes for a tight end, he has very good hands and Brandon Beane talked about his "feel" for coverages being Beasley-esque and I see where he was going with that. I was not a fan of any of the other tight ends at this spot for the Bills because they were less athletic versions of Dawson Knox and I thought taking a slot receiver off the field to put say Michael Mayer out there made us less dynamic, not more. I don't feel that way about Kincaid. He adds a completely new dynamic to the offense and working out if you play the Bills 12 personnel in base or nickel is going to be a constant challenge for defensive coordinators. I also think personality wise... he feels like a kid who will get on great with Josh, and get on great with Dawson. 

 

Okay, so what do I like less about the pick. Positional value is still positional value and while Kincaid is more of a big slot than he is a true tight end he isn't a Kyle Pitts level receiver coming out at the position and you are still spending a first round pick on a slot guy. I care a bit less about it in this draft than I would normally given the weakness at the top of the class, but would be remiss of me not to mention it. Secondly, he is 23, will turn 24 in October and by the end of his 5 year rookie deal will be 29. Again, in this class because of covid and additional eligibility there are a lot of older prospects. But the reality is he is likely a one contract guy unless he really turns into one of the elite weapons in the league at the position. In terms of weaknesses in his game... he can't really block. Beane skirted around it a bit in the presser and said it without saying it but his blocking consists of "can he get in the way and just hold a guy up for half a second." That is less of a problem for the Bills if their plan is lots of 12 personnel with Knox but say Dawson misses time your choice then is try and ask Kincaid to play as your traditional tight end and go with a slot receiver or, more likely, bring out Gilliam, an extra blocker or a blocking tight end who offers nothing as a pass catcher and in those situations you are definitely reducing the dynamism of your offense. I also thing he can be bullied a touch when you get a really physical player against him in coverage. There were not many that could compete in that regard in the PAC 12 but there will be some of them in the NFL. If I was Baltimore for instance I'd say to Kyle Hamilton - just go plan man on Kincaid, get physical and we will play 10 v 10 elsewhere. None of the above should be seen as me hammering the pick, I understand it and I think given where the board was at it was one of the better potential outcomes. But it is right to show both sides. 

 

He becomes only the second player on our offense drafted in the first round. So at least in that regard Josh won't be a club of 1 anymore! The challenge now is on Josh and Ken Dorsey to find a way to utilise our two tight ends to maximise their ability. No good crying about weapons you don't have. In Diggs, Knox and now Kincaid they have three guys who you can really create with. And if they can't it is on them. For Ken Dorsey in particular failure with this group now and spells of the season where "run Josh Allen" seems to be our only offense should leave him out of a job next January. 

 

My Mock

I matched my personal best from last year by correctly mocking 27 of the eventual first rounders (and given that this was 27/31 and not 27/32 I think it probably counts as a new PB!) The guys I missed on were Quentin Johnston and Mazi Smith (both of whom I knew were very possible 1sts I just couldn't find a slot for) plus Jack Campbell (shocker to me) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah who I actually had at #31 to the Chiefs in version 2.0 before swapping out for McDonald in the final version.

 

I also had 6 exact player and team matches (not all at the exact spots given some of the trade activity). That was up from 4 last year and in an unpredictable 1st round I am pretty happy with that. There were then a further 6 right position, wrong player (which is a tick down on my average of about 8 there) and 6 where I missed a player's exact draft slot (not the team but the position) by one.... including literally just having Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee to the Saints and Bengals the wrong way round. 

 

I will score it by the Fantasy Pros mock methodology later too. Which seems to be the most respect of the scoring formulas people use for mocks these days. 

 

Player(s) I was high on...

I have two of my 11 first round grades still on the board in Joey Porter Jnr and Brian Branch. Branch surprises me less because he is a safety (I know he played some corner in college too but I'm not sure that will work in the NFL) and positional value comes into play but I am really surprised by Porter sliding. To an extent I get Forbes (ball skills) and Banks (potential) jumping him but if you asked me which corner in this class has the best pure coverage skillset to go play in an NFL game tomorrow it is Porter. I wonder if the Steelers complete the family fairytale by drafting him with the first pick on day 2 and letting him follow in his father's footsteps? That would be one hell of a story. 

 

Player I was down on...

I was kind of surprised that there were no major reaches down the board. There were no "John Schneider moments" in the days when the Seahwaks would draft late in the first and pick a 3rd round prospect. Nor was there a Cole Strange moment. Belichick actually got the 4th best player in the draft my board at pick #17, and screwed the Jets and Rodgers in the process. The two lowest graded players by my board to get selected last night were the two Smiths - Mazi and Nolan - who are both later 2nds on my board. I know I am lower than most on Nolan Smith but his tape screams athlete who still needs to learn to play football to me. That said, the value and the fit in Philly where he can play just as a situational pass rusher his first couple of years while they try and develop him further makes some sense. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

I think just the trade action early. I actually like the eventual outcome for both Houston and Arizona. Houston got a Quarterback, and it got one of the two true blue chippers in this class without ruining their 2024 draft. I would not have been in favour of giving up a 2024 first if it was their only one, or if they had spent it on anyone other than Carter or Anderson. But all they have essentially done is punted their "spare" first rounder forward a year to try and kick start the Demeco Ryans era now. And I think that makes sense. They have been waiting to try and re-start the franchise for two years. It was time for them to put some actual effort into it. And for Arizona originally I thought it was a bad move. Despite picking up an extra first this is a team with multiple needs and they moved back so far that they risked being out of even the second tier of prospects. I really like Paris Johnson Jnr. He was my #5 overall player. I think when you look at the success of Charles Cross last year in Seattle you have to be looking for these quick footed pass protecting left tackles these days in the top 10 rather than the old bulldozer stereotype. In terms of a single pick I didn't see anyone who had John Schneider and Pete Carrol going with Devon Witherspoon. I like it, I understand it, well played fellas.  

 

Worst Pick

Worst single pick is the Chicago Bears taking a right tackle only - who we KNOW is a right tackle only because he tried and failed to be a left tackle in college - at 10th overall. That is horrific value. A top 10 pick on a right tackle who is a better run blocker than pass protector and to be honest who I don't see any real special traits in. Even if he hits, what good is it if Justin Fields who isn't the fastest processor in the world is being buried from the blindside every time he drops back to pass. They spent a high 2nd round pick on Teven Jenkins, another overhyped college right tackle, just two sodding years ago. They have tried him at left tackle, right tackle and both guard spots since to try and rescue some value from that pick. Remember folks insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting better results. That franchise has been a trainwreck for a long time now since the days when Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith at least gave it some level of respectability in the 00s. 

 

While I'm on a roll ragging on the NFC North a word for the Lions. To this point I have been a fan of the job Brad Holmes has done as GM rebuilding that team. They have picked the best football players and have focused on premium positions - left tackle, edge rusher, wide receiver. But It was @BADOLBILZ who was saying the other day in the context of the Bills that is kind of easier to stick to that rule of thumb when you don't feel you are close. Once you feel you are close there can be a tendency to start looking at your roster and attacking those "needs" you have to get you over the top. Having the 12th and 18th picks in the NFL draft and coming away with a running back and an off the ball middle linebacker is just bad draft strategy in the modern NFL. The 1990s just called in Detroit. They want their draft back. I don't hate Campbell or Gibbs as players, but I hate it as an approach to team building in 2023. 

 

Big Board Check

So after all that what is left as we head into day two? Here is the top 15 best available by my big board:

 

1. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

2. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

3. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

4. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

5. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

6. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

7. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

8. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

9. John Michael Schmitz, IOL, Minnesota

10. Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

11. O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

12. Josh Downs, WR, UNC

13. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse

14. Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

15. Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech

 

That will do it for the day 1 debrief. Day 2 is normally my favourite day of the draft, so hope everyone enjoys. I will be updating my best remaining list about every 10 picks from now in the Draft live thread as we go along and I'll be back here tomorrow morning to breakdown day 2!!

WWE Crowd chants. I hope you do this for day 2 as well. THANK YOU! 

 

 

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

This gets said a lot, yet he had only 51 passes over 20 yards--12 of those over 40 yards, out of 567 attempts. 

 

A pass from 10-20 yds is classed as an "intermediate" throw, so I'm not sure what point your data show.

 

How many throws did Josh take, especially at the end of the season, that were 0-5 yds?  And what was his on-target percentage - not catch %, where maybe the RB or receiver dug him out by reaching or going low, where he threw a ball the receiver could catch in stride? 

 

I'm sure there is a source for these data, but I don't have one.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I feel like Detroit blew it pretty badly. They took a RB early but yet still missed out on Bijan by what, 4 picks? That's pretty deflating. If you are going to go RB at 12 at least make sure you do what you have to do, moving up 5 or 6 spots to get the #1 guy. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

A pass from 10-20 yds is classed as an "intermediate" throw, so I'm not sure what point your data show.

 

How many throws did Josh take, especially at the end of the season, that were 0-5 yds?  And what was his on-target percentage - not catch %, where maybe the RB or receiver dug him out by reaching or going low, where he threw a ball the receiver could catch in stride? 

 

I'm sure there is a source for these data, but I don't have one.

 

 

I was making the point that he wasn't bombing downfield in lieu of short passes.  Also, these figures include YAC, so "intermediate" throws are likely pretty short passes in the air.

 

If looking at all passes at least 10 yards, it's still only 28% of his attempts. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

TE is always the best friend of a QB under duress, yet Josh rarely tossed his way.  It's hard to believe it was because he was so wide open.

 

It is a mix of Josh trying to force too much deep and Dorsey not having enough playcalls where he is early enough in the progression.

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Devil's advocate...

 

I get the positional value argument.  But let's say both these guys turn out to be perennial all-pros and future HOFers.  

 

No All-Pro pick is a bad pick, regardless of position.  

 

That is the beauty of the draft. If a pick turns out to be an all pro no one cares when they were picked. Just seems like the Lions have forever doing who knows what. The many years ago drafting every WR possible with early picks to the last few years drafting TJ Hock and trading him, Jameson Williams is a potential bust, just traded Okudah for nothing. Now draft a RB and LB so early. Rough. 

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

 

I would love to get Bergeron, but trading up is the only way to do that.  No way he's falling that far when he's the best OT left.  I'm not OK with Spencer Brown there and I hope the FO isn't either.

 

We already traded away the 4th round pick so we don't have much to work with unless Beane is willing to dip into next year's as well.

 

 

Same, but I don't see how that happens without a trade up.  WIth our 4th already being traded, that makes it harder.

I'd rather get 2 or 3 quality starting prospects than 4 or 5 draft picks that will likely have less of an impact. 

 

I hope Beane can move up to get Bergeron.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a mix of Josh trying to force too much deep and Dorsey not having enough playcalls where he is early enough in the progression.

 

 Possibly--Dorsey seems out of his depth for sure.  He should have stopped at QB Coach. 

 

The data don't indicate he's going deep often enough to not target Knox or any particular player, though.

[Shaw66]

I just want to say thank you to Gunner for discussion and analysis of the Bills like this.   

 

His discussion of Day 1 is as good as you'll find anywhere.   You don't have to agree with him on every pick, any pick for that matter, but the overall quality of his knowledge and his explanations of why he likes one choice or another is excellent.  He talks about where his mocks were right and where they were wrong.   Just great stuff, from top to bottom.  

 

Thanks.  

[HappyDays]

Wasn't sure where to put this, I figured this thread was as good as any:

 

So if not for Kincaid slipping, looks like we would have traded down to #41. By the draft value chart that's a 230 point difference, and the Titans 3rd round pick (#72) happens to be worth exactly 230 points. Sounds like Beane passed up on an extra 3rd to take Kincaid so that shows you how much he liked him.

[No_Matter_What]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, I figured this thread was as good as any:

 

So if not for Kincaid slipping, looks like we would have traded down to #41. By the draft value chart that's a 230 point difference, and the Titans 3rd round pick (#72) happens to be worth exactly 230 points. Sounds like Beane passed up on an extra 3rd to take Kincaid so that shows you how much he liked him.

If true, he passed on 3rd and gave up 4th. Quite a lot. Doesn't matter if DK pans out.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

If true, he passed on 3rd and gave up 4th. Quite a lot. Doesn't matter if DK pans out.

 

Yep so Kincaid must have really been sticking out on Beane's board. The combined value we gave up of that possible 3rd and our own 4th is equivalent to the last pick of the 2nd round.

[No_Matter_What]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

That will do it for the day 1 debrief. Day 2 is normally my favourite day of the draft, so hope everyone enjoys. I will be updating my best remaining list about every 10 picks from now in the Draft live thread as we go along and I'll be back here tomorrow morning to breakdown day 2!!

Well apparently you didn't show up today, which is weird, so hopefully everything is fine and you just didn't have internet or something.😟

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Well apparently you didn't show up today, which is weird, so hopefully everything is fine and you just didn't have internet or something.😟

 

Yep. Apols. Ended up watching at my partner's where I didn't have my usual setup. All good just a bit life in the way yesterday