2023 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

What do you see the Bills doing in round 2? I'm guessing it likely is D? Perhaps even for picks 2 and 3?

 

I think they will follow the board. I don't think it is going to be a "we must have position X" situation. 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Knox isn't a YAC guy. It's gone down over 4 years and his drop rate is creeping up again.  He dives/hits the ground on a lot of catches when he doesn't need to.  

 

When Knox is hit in stride, he's dangerous.  He's just not targeted enough or hit in stride enough. 

He's not a juker or shake people off like a Kelce.....he's a guy when he's moving, he's hard to stop.

 

[Motorin']

@GunnerBill I agree with your analysis of the Kincaid pick through and through. Definitely see him as a Big Slot receiver. The only place I slightly disagree is that slot isn't really a first round value pick. Sometimes it is. 

 

To me it's a question of production. Can your big slot put up #1 reciever numbers? With guys like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, the value is there. 

 

I said in several threads on the subject that the value is there for the Bills to take Kincaid at 27 if they think he's had the potential to be a 100 catch, 1,000 receiver. 

 

I think he was the best receiver left in the draft, the only one with a 1st round grade, and his size and mismatch factor put him ahead of Downs. 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

@GunnerBill I agree with your analysis of the Kincaid pick through and through. Definitely see him as a Big Slot receiver. The only place I slightly disagree is that slot isn't really a first round value pick. Sometimes it is. 

 

To me it's a question of production. Can your big slot put up #1 reciever numbers? With guys like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, the value is there. 

 

I said in several threads on the subject that the value is there for the Bills to take Kincaid at 27 if they think he's had the potential to be a 100 catch, 1,000 receiver. 

 

I think he was the best receiver left in the draft, the only one with a 1st round grade, and his size and mismatch factor put him ahead of Downs. 

 

 

 

I agree he was the best receiving option left. And I don't disagree if you get true elite tight end or slot performance it is worth it. Those three guys are all elite players. But you have to get that sort of elite level to make it worth it for me - in a normal year. If the Bille get 5 years averaging around 800 yards and 7 touchdowns from Kincaid given the talent pool and options in THIS draft... that would be pretty solid.

[Mr. WEO]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The drop rate isn't really going up again. It was a tick higher in 2022 than 2021 but both are well within the bounds of normal for a tight end. That was just normal year to year variance. For example Kelce's drop rate in 2021 was higher than both of Knox's past two years. Nobody would say Kelce has a drops problem. Knox DID have a drops problem his first two years. He has worked really hard to straighten that out.

 

There is  a tendency for lesser players to be compared to their position's best (even, perhaps, best ever) and say--"see?  even +++ had X drops/4INT games/X fumbles/etc".  The proportionally massive production difference that resulted in Kelce's drop rate of 7.5 or 5.3 compared to Knox's output that cost a 6.2% rate allows no convincing comparison. 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Good stuff Gunner.

 

The draft was fun because, in a weak draft, teams target specific players and move around for them instead of waiting and standing pat.  

 

As for the Bills' pick, I don't think they expected Kinkaid to get past Green Bay or the Chargers, but Green Bay reverted to its MO of picking a Rashaan Gary-like raw DE who will develop just in time for Love to lose his faith in the organization, and the Chargers just can't help themselves if they see a big boundary receiver option.  Both of those teams had glaring holes at a QB-friendly TE who could work the middle of the field, and both of them passed.

 

The most encouraging part of last night for me was Beane's comments (if they're to be believed) that he would've traded out of the pick if Kinkaid was gone, instead of reaching for a run-stopping DT like Mazi Smith or a guard like Torrence.  If he's telling the truth, it means he has a better grasp on positional value than I've been giving him credit for.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good stuff Gunner.

 

The draft was fun because, in a weak draft, teams target specific players and move around for them instead of waiting and standing pat.  

 

As for the Bills' pick, I don't think they expected Kinkaid to get past Green Bay or the Chargers, but Green Bay reverted to its MO of picking a Rashaan Gary-like raw DE who will develop just in time for Love to lose his faith in the organization, and the Chargers just can't help themselves if they see a big boundary receiver option.  Both of those teams had glaring holes at a QB-friendly TE who could work the middle of the field, and both of them passed.

 

The most encouraging part of last night for me was Beane's comments (if they're to be believed) that he would've traded out of the pick if Kinkaid was gone, instead of reaching for a run-stopping DT like Mazi Smith or a guard like Torrence.  If he's telling the truth, it means he has a better grasp on positional value than I've been giving him credit for.

Fella is allowed to develop, just like players.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There is  a tendency for lesser players to be compared to their position's best (even, perhaps, best ever) and say--"see?  even +++ had X drops/4INT games/X fumbles/etc".  The proportionally massive production difference that resulted in Kelce's drop rate of 7.5 or 5.3 compared to Knox's output that cost a 6.2% rate allows no convincing comparison. 

 

 

 

Yes but my point wasn't to compare Knox to Kelce. It was to compare their individual variance. 5.6% drops to 6.2% drops is well within the range of just normal seasonal varience - as evidenced by the variance others such as Kelce have had from year to year. It does not represent any sense that the drops issues are resurfacing which was what you were alluding to.

4 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good stuff Gunner.

 

The draft was fun because, in a weak draft, teams target specific players and move around for them instead of waiting and standing pat.  

 

As for the Bills' pick, I don't think they expected Kinkaid to get past Green Bay or the Chargers, but Green Bay reverted to its MO of picking a Rashaan Gary-like raw DE who will develop just in time for Love to lose his faith in the organization, and the Chargers just can't help themselves if they see a big boundary receiver option.  Both of those teams had glaring holes at a QB-friendly TE who could work the middle of the field, and both of them passed.

 

The most encouraging part of last night for me was Beane's comments (if they're to be believed) that he would've traded out of the pick if Kinkaid was gone, instead of reaching for a run-stopping DT like Mazi Smith or a guard like Torrence.  If he's telling the truth, it means he has a better grasp on positional value than I've been giving him credit for.

 

In fairness I think the Bills under Beane have always had a decent grasp of positional value in round 1. It is rounds 2 and 3 where some of their positional resource allocation has been wonky.

[John from Riverside]

19 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

@GunnerBill I agree with your analysis of the Kincaid pick through and through. Definitely see him as a Big Slot receiver. The only place I slightly disagree is that slot isn't really a first round value pick. Sometimes it is. 

 

To me it's a question of production. Can your big slot put up #1 reciever numbers? With guys like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, the value is there. 

 

I said in several threads on the subject that the value is there for the Bills to take Kincaid at 27 if they think he's had the potential to be a 100 catch, 1,000 receiver. 

 

I think he was the best receiver left in the draft, the only one with a 1st round grade, and his size and mismatch factor put him ahead of Downs. 

 

 

 

 

 

I just find it interesting how the majority of the wide receivers that had first round grades. We’re probably going to get regulated to the slot position and are a bunch of skinny Smurfs.
 

The bills decided to also take a player for the slot position, but it’s a big body

 

They just attacked it from a different direction

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I just find it interesting how the majority of the wide receivers that had first round grades. We’re probably going to get regulated to the slot position and are a bunch of skinny Smurfs.
 

The bills decided to also take a player for the slot position, but it’s a big body

 

They just attacked it from a different direction

 

I mean they didn't. I had JSN and Addison as borderline 1sts (one point ahead of Kincaid who I had as a high 2nd) and then had 2nd round grades on Johnston and Flowers. We don't know exactly what grades the Bills had but we do know, if Beane is telling the truth and he normally does, that they didn't have all 4 as 1st round grades. 

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean they didn't. I had JSN and Addison as borderline 1sts (one point ahead of Kincaid who I had as a high 2nd) and then had 2nd round grades on Johnston and Flowers. We don't know exactly what grades the Bills had but we do know, if Beane is telling the truth and he normally does, that they didn't have all 4 as 1st round grades. 

I meant from the majority of the mock drafts that I have been seeing the majority had them with these wide receivers, going relatively high with maybe the possibility of one of them, making it to the end of the first round in a lot of the mocks that I saw
 

Kincaid was the first rounder on literally 90% of the mock drafts that I saw

 

Not grades, but just where they were going to go in the draft

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I meant from the majority of the mock drafts that I have been seeing the majority had them with these wide receivers, going relatively high with maybe the possibility of one of them, making it to the end of the first round in a lot of the mocks that I saw
 

Kincaid was the first rounder on literally 90% of the mock drafts that I saw

 

Not grades, but just where they were going to go in the draft

 

I don't understand the point.... all 4 receivers and Kincaid were all being mocked in the first round. That isn't in dispute.

[Royale with Cheese]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There is  a tendency for lesser players to be compared to their position's best (even, perhaps, best ever) and say--"see?  even +++ had X drops/4INT games/X fumbles/etc".  The proportionally massive production difference that resulted in Kelce's drop rate of 7.5 or 5.3 compared to Knox's output that cost a 6.2% rate allows no convincing comparison. 

 

 

 

Knox's drops have been the reason why he hasn't elevated his game above a good Tight End.  He has the physical skill sets to be a top 5 Tight End in the league.

He is open a lot and Josh doesn't throw his way often....I wonder if that's the reason?

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

@GunnerBill I agree with your analysis of the Kincaid pick through and through. Definitely see him as a Big Slot receiver. The only place I slightly disagree is that slot isn't really a first round value pick. Sometimes it is. 

 

To me it's a question of production. Can your big slot put up #1 reciever numbers? With guys like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, the value is there. 

 

I said in several threads on the subject that the value is there for the Bills to take Kincaid at 27 if they think he's had the potential to be a 100 catch, 1,000 receiver. 

 

I think he was the best receiver left in the draft, the only one with a 1st round grade, and his size and mismatch factor put him ahead of Downs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like the pick and see where you are coming from. I also see where @GunnerBill is coming from there. Because as good as those guys are, none of them were first round picks. Yeah, in hindsight, they should have been, but the positional value is not quite there when drafting. Maybe that is starting to change. 

[Mr. WEO]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Knox's drops have been the reason why he hasn't elevated his game above a good Tight End.  He has the physical skill sets to be a top 5 Tight End in the league.

He is open a lot and Josh doesn't throw his way often....I wonder if that's the reason?

 

I don't think he gets open a lot.  3 of his targets resulted in INTs. Some of that may be on Josh, but Knox's int number and % are second highest of the top 4 receivers on the team. 

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Agreed.  I see no reason why Knox doesn't get at least 90 targets a season.  Knox is more explosive than Kincaid and I think is better after the catch.

When Knox catches a ball in stride, he's dangerous. 

Reason, because the quarterback prefers to push the ball downfield and or run rather than take shorter routes.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

I don't think he gets open a lot.  3 of his targets resulted in INTs. Some of that may be on Josh, but Knox's int number and % are second highest of the top 4 receivers on the team. 

 

I haven't broken down the film because I don't have access to it.  The Cover 1 guys and Gunner have stated that Knox is open a lot after watching film.  

The few eye in the sky shots that these Twitter guys show, I've seen Knox open.  He's an athletic tight end...it's hard for linebackers to keep up with him and safeties are too small for him.  

1 minute ago, That's No Moon said:

Reason, because the quarterback prefers to push the ball downfield and or run rather than take shorter routes.

 

That's certainly a proponent of it but I've seen Knox down the seem or crossing over the middle downfield...Allen just isn't targeting him enough.

Kincaid can get downfield so it helps in that area.  If you stretch the linebackers thin with two athletic tight ends, it allows more field for Allen to scramble if he needs to run and I think it allows our running backs to be involved more in the passing game...I think.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I haven't broken down the film because I don't have access to it.  The Cover 1 guys and Gunner have stated that Knox is open a lot after watching film.  

The few eye in the sky shots that these Twitter guys show, I've seen Knox open.  He's an athletic tight end...it's hard for linebackers to keep up with him and safeties are too small for him.  

 

 

Well, on  most plays, there are a few guys open as part of the progression right?  If the primary target gets the pass, doesn't really matter if Knox was open. He's not just out there blocking----He has the 2nd lowest snaps of the top 4 receivers on the team but his targets to snaps ratio is the lowest. 

[ngbills]

To be a lions fan. Two top 20 picks and they get a RB and LB. 

[Billz4ever]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I think Beane trades up to get a LB or Oline man

 

I would love to get Bergeron, but trading up is the only way to do that.  No way he's falling that far when he's the best OT left.  I'm not OK with Spencer Brown there and I hope the FO isn't either.

 

We already traded away the 4th round pick so we don't have much to work with unless Beane is willing to dip into next year's as well.

 

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Couple of things
 

I was shocked at how high Captain Jack Campbell went in the draft. I said there was no way in hell that he was going to make it to the bills second round pick, but I didn’t realize he was going to go before the bills first round pick shocker

 

I’d love to get Matthew Bergeron tomorrow

 

Same, but I don't see how that happens without a trade up.  WIth our 4th already being traded, that makes it harder.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Billz4ever