2023 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

I absolutely loved that first round! It was bonkers, it was crazy, there were trades all over the place and there was a nice balance between the things that felt true in January (Young and Stroud 1&2, Will Anderson being the first non-QB, the Titans being all in on offensive line, Nolan Smith being a late 1st) and the things that have been trendier as we have gone through the process (Emmanuel Forbes going high, the receiver run not starting until later, Darnell Wright being a top 10 pick)!!  So here are my thoughts on where that leaves us with day 1 in the books.

 

The Bills Pick

In what felt very much like a repeat of last year Brandon Beane flipped his 4th round pick to move up a few spots in the latter portion of round 1 to make sure he snagged a guy who was high on his board before the drop off in talent hit. Beane confirmed in the press conference last night that the Bills did not have first round grades on all four of the receivers that went in that crazy run from pick 20 to pick 23, however I still believe that there were at least a couple of guys in that run that they would have coveted at #27. Once all 4 were gone he started calling up - the Giants and Jacksonville - to get ahead of the Cowboys for Dalton Kincaid. So what I like about the pick and the process is it says to me that there was an absolute commitment to getting a weapon for Josh Allen. The AFC is an arms race right now. The Bengals have great weapons, the Chargers just added a dynamic element to their offensive skill positions, the Ravens have suddenly gone from a weak set of weapons to a potentially nice looking combination. The Bills have got to make sure they keep up and their focus was clearly on adding an offensive playmaker. Kincaid was the 18th overall player on my big board and by the time the Bills picked he was the 5th best remaining and the best remaining offensive player.

 

As for Kincaid himself, I think he does shift the paradigm and said so in another thread recently. This is a guy you can put on the field with Dawson Knox and create a bunch of different mismatches. He essentially is your Cole Beasley replacement in a different body type. He is a "big slot" more than a true tight end. He runs really good routes for a tight end, he has very good hands and Brandon Beane talked about his "feel" for coverages being Beasley-esque and I see where he was going with that. I was not a fan of any of the other tight ends at this spot for the Bills because they were less athletic versions of Dawson Knox and I thought taking a slot receiver off the field to put say Michael Mayer out there made us less dynamic, not more. I don't feel that way about Kincaid. He adds a completely new dynamic to the offense and working out if you play the Bills 12 personnel in base or nickel is going to be a constant challenge for defensive coordinators. I also think personality wise... he feels like a kid who will get on great with Josh, and get on great with Dawson. 

 

Okay, so what do I like less about the pick. Positional value is still positional value and while Kincaid is more of a big slot than he is a true tight end he isn't a Kyle Pitts level receiver coming out at the position and you are still spending a first round pick on a slot guy. I care a bit less about it in this draft than I would normally given the weakness at the top of the class, but would be remiss of me not to mention it. Secondly, he is 23, will turn 24 in October and by the end of his 5 year rookie deal will be 29. Again, in this class because of covid and additional eligibility there are a lot of older prospects. But the reality is he is likely a one contract guy unless he really turns into one of the elite weapons in the league at the position. In terms of weaknesses in his game... he can't really block. Beane skirted around it a bit in the presser and said it without saying it but his blocking consists of "can he get in the way and just hold a guy up for half a second." That is less of a problem for the Bills if their plan is lots of 12 personnel with Knox but say Dawson misses time your choice then is try and ask Kincaid to play as your traditional tight end and go with a slot receiver or, more likely, bring out Gilliam, an extra blocker or a blocking tight end who offers nothing as a pass catcher and in those situations you are definitely reducing the dynamism of your offense. I also thing he can be bullied a touch when you get a really physical player against him in coverage. There were not many that could compete in that regard in the PAC 12 but there will be some of them in the NFL. If I was Baltimore for instance I'd say to Kyle Hamilton - just go plan man on Kincaid, get physical and we will play 10 v 10 elsewhere. None of the above should be seen as me hammering the pick, I understand it and I think given where the board was at it was one of the better potential outcomes. But it is right to show both sides. 

 

He becomes only the second player on our offense drafted in the first round. So at least in that regard Josh won't be a club of 1 anymore! The challenge now is on Josh and Ken Dorsey to find a way to utilise our two tight ends to maximise their ability. No good crying about weapons you don't have. In Diggs, Knox and now Kincaid they have three guys who you can really create with. And if they can't it is on them. For Ken Dorsey in particular failure with this group now and spells of the season where "run Josh Allen" seems to be our only offense should leave him out of a job next January. 

 

My Mock

I matched my personal best from last year by correctly mocking 27 of the eventual first rounders (and given that this was 27/31 and not 27/32 I think it probably counts as a new PB!) The guys I missed on were Quentin Johnston and Mazi Smith (both of whom I knew were very possible 1sts I just couldn't find a slot for) plus Jack Campbell (shocker to me) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah who I actually had at #31 to the Chiefs in version 2.0 before swapping out for McDonald in the final version.

 

I also had 6 exact player and team matches (not all at the exact spots given some of the trade activity). That was up from 4 last year and in an unpredictable 1st round I am pretty happy with that. There were then a further 6 right position, wrong player (which is a tick down on my average of about 8 there) and 6 where I missed a player's exact draft slot (not the team but the position) by one.... including literally just having Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee to the Saints and Bengals the wrong way round. 

 

I will score it by the Fantasy Pros mock methodology later too. Which seems to be the most respect of the scoring formulas people use for mocks these days. 

 

Player(s) I was high on...

I have two of my 11 first round grades still on the board in Joey Porter Jnr and Brian Branch. Branch surprises me less because he is a safety (I know he played some corner in college too but I'm not sure that will work in the NFL) and positional value comes into play but I am really surprised by Porter sliding. To an extent I get Forbes (ball skills) and Banks (potential) jumping him but if you asked me which corner in this class has the best pure coverage skillset to go play in an NFL game tomorrow it is Porter. I wonder if the Steelers complete the family fairytale by drafting him with the first pick on day 2 and letting him follow in his father's footsteps? That would be one hell of a story. 

 

Player I was down on...

I was kind of surprised that there were no major reaches down the board. There were no "John Schneider moments" in the days when the Seahwaks would draft late in the first and pick a 3rd round prospect. Nor was there a Cole Strange moment. Belichick actually got the 4th best player in the draft my board at pick #17, and screwed the Jets and Rodgers in the process. The two lowest graded players by my board to get selected last night were the two Smiths - Mazi and Nolan - who are both later 2nds on my board. I know I am lower than most on Nolan Smith but his tape screams athlete who still needs to learn to play football to me. That said, the value and the fit in Philly where he can play just as a situational pass rusher his first couple of years while they try and develop him further makes some sense. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

I think just the trade action early. I actually like the eventual outcome for both Houston and Arizona. Houston got a Quarterback, and it got one of the two true blue chippers in this class without ruining their 2024 draft. I would not have been in favour of giving up a 2024 first if it was their only one, or if they had spent it on anyone other than Carter or Anderson. But all they have essentially done is punted their "spare" first rounder forward a year to try and kick start the Demeco Ryans era now. And I think that makes sense. They have been waiting to try and re-start the franchise for two years. It was time for them to put some actual effort into it. And for Arizona originally I thought it was a bad move. Despite picking up an extra first this is a team with multiple needs and they moved back so far that they risked being out of even the second tier of prospects. I really like Paris Johnson Jnr. He was my #5 overall player. I think when you look at the success of Charles Cross last year in Seattle you have to be looking for these quick footed pass protecting left tackles these days in the top 10 rather than the old bulldozer stereotype. In terms of a single pick I didn't see anyone who had John Schneider and Pete Carrol going with Devon Witherspoon. I like it, I understand it, well played fellas.  

 

Worst Pick

Worst single pick is the Chicago Bears taking a right tackle only - who we KNOW is a right tackle only because he tried and failed to be a left tackle in college - at 10th overall. That is horrific value. A top 10 pick on a right tackle who is a better run blocker than pass protector and to be honest who I don't see any real special traits in. Even if he hits, what good is it if Justin Fields who isn't the fastest processor in the world is being buried from the blindside every time he drops back to pass. They spent a high 2nd round pick on Teven Jenkins, another overhyped college right tackle, just two sodding years ago. They have tried him at left tackle, right tackle and both guard spots since to try and rescue some value from that pick. Remember folks insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting better results. That franchise has been a trainwreck for a long time now since the days when Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith at least gave it some level of respectability in the 00s. 

 

While I'm on a roll ragging on the NFC North a word for the Lions. To this point I have been a fan of the job Brad Holmes has done as GM rebuilding that team. They have picked the best football players and have focused on premium positions - left tackle, edge rusher, wide receiver. But It was @BADOLBILZ who was saying the other day in the context of the Bills that is kind of easier to stick to that rule of thumb when you don't feel you are close. Once you feel you are close there can be a tendency to start looking at your roster and attacking those "needs" you have to get you over the top. Having the 12th and 18th picks in the NFL draft and coming away with a running back and an off the ball middle linebacker is just bad draft strategy in the modern NFL. The 1990s just called in Detroit. They want their draft back. I don't hate Campbell or Gibbs as players, but I hate it as an approach to team building in 2023. 

 

Big Board Check

So after all that what is left as we head into day two? Here is the top 15 best available by my big board:

 

1. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

2. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

3. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

4. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

5. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

6. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

7. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

8. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

9. John Michael Schmitz, IOL, Minnesota

10. Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

11. O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

12. Josh Downs, WR, UNC

13. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse

14. Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

15. Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech

 

That will do it for the day 1 debrief. Day 2 is normally my favourite day of the draft, so hope everyone enjoys. I will be updating my best remaining list about every 10 picks from now in the Draft live thread as we go along and I'll be back here tomorrow morning to breakdown day 2!!

[No_Matter_What]

Morning Gunner. I am sitting here processing everything what happened yesterday and waiting for your debrief. And he it is!

 

I am going to read it, but meanwhile, I appreciate if you could check out the other thread about Day 2 potential Bills targets and answer my question about round 3 OL picks

[CNYfan]

59 is a long way away.

[newcam2012]

10 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

59 is a long way away.

I think Beane trades up to get a LB or Oline man

[John from Riverside]

Couple of things
 

I was shocked at how high Captain Jack Campbell went in the draft. I said there was no way in hell that he was going to make it to the bills second round pick, but I didn’t realize he was going to go before the bills first round pick shocker

 

I’d love to get Matthew Bergeron tomorrow

[BuffaloBillyG]

Excellent debrief. That first round was a bit crazy for sure and I expect the top half of the 2nd round to match that as teams will be trying to slide up for guys that slid. Should be a fun day. 

 

I maybe don't share the excitement over the DK pick quite yet as I really didn't look too hard at him believing he would be gone by the pick. The thing I keep coming back to in my mind is that (and while not directly comparing) he seems almost more like a Mike Gesicki type TE (better hands and better athlete from the sounds, though). While I also like Gesicki I've seen over and over how he would be a bad match for Buffalo.  So, a tad nervous about the fit for the moment. But the Bills have been looking for that receiving TE for a bit now (Hollister and Howard were failed attempts) so I do believe they have some ideas cooked up to maximize his potential.

 

I'm off today and will be doing a bit more homework on DK. He does seem like the type that I can get excited about once I see him a bit more. And of course the fan in me will talk myself into loving the pick by lunch more than likely. 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

Excellent stuff Gunner!  This was the only interesting draft in years.

 

Kincaid isn't Pitts, but Pitts is unique, so no knock there.  Kincaid is as good an athlete as Knox, with better hands.  This Offense has serious potential in a way it hadn't before.  They needed a playmaker on O and they got one.  Boom.

 

Biggest shock was Gonzalez dropping to 17.  NE actually moved down, picked up a 4th....and still got the best CB in the draft.

 

I wasn't shocked by the RBs taken in top 12.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[gonzo1105]

Kincaid isn’t Pitts but guess what Pitts doesn’t have Josh Allen either 

[DJB]

Like I wrote in the draft thread the NFL

offense has changed so much and RT is now a premium position not a devalued one.

 

Not arguing on the player but to think RT isn’t important is an archaic thinking view on the current NFL offensive landscape 

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Kincaid is as good an athlete as Knox, with better hands.

 

I think they're different types of athletes. Knox is more straight line explosive and can bulldoze defenders. Kincaid is much more fluid than Knox, his hip fluidity in particular is outstanding which is why he looks so smooth on the field. Knox can't do this:

 

That fluidity also makes him a great safety valve in a way that Knox never has been IMO. He has an uncanny ability to sit in holes in coverage, catch the ball, and then immediately turn and accelerate upfield. That skill set combined with his natural feel for making himself available makes him lethal against zone coverage. This is a part of Knox's game that I don't think ever really developed. He isn't particularly QB friendly.

 

Kincaid is going to be a high target player in this offense IMO and it won't be just because Allen and Dorsey decided to use their TEs more. It's because we added 2020 Cole Beasley back into the offense but 8 inches taller and 60 pounds heavier.

[stlbills13]

Great post Gunner

 

Kincaid has me excited. I just don't see the Bills trading up for him unless they felt very strongly about a specific role for him. Of course he has to come in, work hard, stay healthy, etc but he's a good player and adds a different dimension to the offense. My biggest fault with the offense last year was that it was too predictable. Kincaid alone can help change that. He's not Kelce but maybe he can be a Hockenson or a Goedert. If so, it's well worth the cost. 

 

I loved the first round last night. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think they're different types of athletes. Knox is more straight line explosive and can bulldoze defenders. Kincaid is much more fluid than Knox, his hip fluidity in particular is outstanding which is why he looks so smooth on the field. Knox can't do this:

 

That fluidity also makes him a great safety valve in a way that Knox never has been IMO. He has an uncanny ability to sit in holes in coverage, catch the ball, and then immediately turn and accelerate upfield. That skill set combined with his natural feel for making himself available makes him lethal against zone coverage. This is a part of Knox's game that I don't think ever really developed. He isn't particularly QB friendly.

 

Kincaid is going to be a high target player in this offense IMO and it won't be just because Allen and Dorsey decided to use their TEs more. It's because we added 2020 Cole Beasley back into the offense but 8 inches taller and 60 pounds heavier.

 

While I agree Kincaid is a more fluent mover.... Knox is plenty QB friendly. He separates from defenders (in a different way) we just don't throw the ball to him.

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

My Mock

I matched my personal best from last year by correctly mocking 27 of the eventual first rounders (and given that this was 27/31 and not 27/32 I think it probably counts as a new PB!) The guys I missed on were Quentin Johnston and Mazi Smith (both of whom I knew were very possible 1sts I just couldn't find a slot for) plus Jack Campbell (shocker to me) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah who I actually had at #31 to the Chiefs in version 2.0 before swapping out for McDonald in the final version.

 

 

Big Board Check

So after all that what is left as we head into day two? Here is the top 15 best available by my big board:

 

1. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

2. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

3. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

4. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

5. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

6. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

7. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

8. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

9. John Michael Schmitz, IOL, Minnesota

10. Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

11. O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

12. Josh Downs, WR, UNC

13. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse

14. Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

15. Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech

 

That will do it for the day 1 debrief. Day 2 is normally my favourite day of the draft, so hope everyone enjoys. I will be updating my best remaining list about every 10 picks from now in the Draft live thread as we go along and I'll be back here tomorrow morning to breakdown day 2!!

Definitely a new record by percentage. Great job!

 

Is the omission of Will Levis an over-site, or are you that far down on him? I'd love to see O'Cyrus drop to us, otherwise, best defender available.

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While I agree Kincaid is a more fluent mover.... Knox is plenty QB friendly. He separates from defenders (in a different way) we just don't throw the ball to him.

 

When I say QB friendly I mean in a way where he instinctually knows how to make himself available in coverage gaps. I don't see that from Knox.

[dave mcbride]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

When I say QB friendly I mean in a way where he instinctually knows how to make himself available in coverage gaps. I don't see that from Knox.

Yes, Kincaid has a bit of Kelce in him. He can instinctually locate the soft spots in zones. He’s far more of a matchup nightmare than Knox, who is still a better than average TE.

Edited April 28, 2023 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

When I say QB friendly I mean in a way where he instinctually knows how to make himself available in coverage gaps. I don't see that from Knox.

 

No he doesn't have that same feel that I think Beane was referring to, in terms of when to sit. But he does the hard part - het gets open.

13 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Definitely a new record by percentage. Great job!

 

Is the omission of Will Levis an over-site, or are you that far down on him? I'd love to see O'Cyrus drop to us, otherwise, best defender available.

 

He is the 20th best available currently by my board.

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While I agree Kincaid is a more fluent mover.... Knox is plenty QB friendly. He separates from defenders (in a different way) we just don't throw the ball to him.

 

Agreed.  I see no reason why Knox doesn't get at least 90 targets a season.  Knox is more explosive than Kincaid and I think is better after the catch.

When Knox catches a ball in stride, he's dangerous. 

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Agreed.  I see no reason why Knox doesn't get at least 90 targets a season.  Knox is more explosive than Kincaid and I think is better after the catch.

When Knox catches a ball in stride, he's dangerous. 

 

Knox isn't a YAC guy. It's gone down over 4 years and his drop rate is creeping up again.  He dives/hits the ground on a lot of catches when he doesn't need to.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Knox isn't a YAC guy. It's gone down over 4 years and his drop rate is creeping up again.  He dives/hits the ground on a lot of catches when he doesn't need to.  

 

The drop rate isn't really going up again. It was a tick higher in 2022 than 2021 but both are well within the bounds of normal for a tight end. That was just normal year to year variance. For example Kelce's drop rate in 2021 was higher than both of Knox's past two years. Nobody would say Kelce has a drops problem. Knox DID have a drops problem his first two years. He has worked really hard to straighten that out.

[Big Turk]

What do you see the Bills doing in round 2? I'm guessing it likely is D? Perhaps even for picks 2 and 3?