RD 1, Pick 25: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I am confused by all this WR talk. He’s a TE, not a slot WR. In the NFL his mismatch is going to be boxing out strong safeties and beating linebackers up seams and crossing routes. Then some quirky shovel passes and whatnot. 
 

If he’s a WR, than he’ll draw coverage from a strong DB that can most certainly run with him, and over the top help.. because he seems to be the Bills deep threat(??)

 

To make this pick worth it, creativity that the Bills haven’t shown last year, needs to happen. Kelce type play designs need to happen. That’s a first round TE. But Kelce makes it work because he’s so damn good, and he’s got the best QB in football working together with him as the primary target. If Kincaid is just going to go out there and bag 50 catches for 500 yds and 5 touchdowns then what the hell is going on here..

I think Kelce is his ceiling, but you are talking about a future HOF and one of the best to ever play the position. No one expects Kincaid will have Kelce's production right out of the gate. He's a big slot, or a flex TE. 

[Billz4ever]

35 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I am confused by all this WR talk. He’s a TE, not a slot WR. In the NFL his mismatch is going to be boxing out strong safeties and beating linebackers up seams and crossing routes. Then some quirky shovel passes and whatnot. 
 

If he’s a WR, than he’ll draw coverage from a strong DB that can most certainly run with him, and over the top help.. because he seems to be the Bills deep threat(??)

 

To make this pick worth it, creativity that the Bills haven’t shown last year, needs to happen. Kelce type play designs need to happen. That’s a first round TE. But Kelce makes it work because he’s so damn good, and he’s got the best QB in football working together with him as the primary target. If Kincaid is just going to go out there and bag 50 catches for 500 yds and 5 touchdowns then what the hell is going on here..

 

The guy considered the best in the business (Travis Kelce) had 67 catches, 862 yards and five TDs, not to mention 4 fumbles (3 lost) his rookie season.  Let's not place any unrealistic expectations on Kincaid please.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I am confused by all this WR talk. He’s a TE, not a slot WR. In the NFL his mismatch is going to be boxing out strong safeties and beating linebackers up seams and crossing routes. Then some quirky shovel passes and whatnot. 
 

If he’s a WR, than he’ll draw coverage from a strong DB that can most certainly run with him, and over the top help.. because he seems to be the Bills deep threat(??)

 

To make this pick worth it, creativity that the Bills haven’t shown last year, needs to happen. Kelce type play designs need to happen. That’s a first round TE. But Kelce makes it work because he’s so damn good, and he’s got the best QB in football working together with him as the primary target. If Kincaid is just going to go out there and bag 50 catches for 500 yds and 5 touchdowns then what the hell is going on here..

 

 

It's a valid concern.   He needs to be a better receiver than a lot of very good TE's before him for it to work the way Beane was talking it up.  It's probably most notable that putting a good CB on Jimmy Graham basically erased his impact in Seattle.  And in Buffalo we have seen Antoine Winfield and Tre White really neutralize Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski at times in the past.   He really needs to be in the range of Kyle Pitts or Kelce.   If he just ends up being an upgrade on Knox they will need to upgrade the quality of targets at WR.   Which would already have been on the immediate to-do list with Diggs getting up there in age.  

Edited April 30, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's a valid concern.   He needs to be a better receiver than a lot of very good TE's before him for it to work the way Beane was talking it up.  It's probably most notable that putting a good CB on Jimmy Graham basically erased his impact in Seattle.  And in Buffalo we have seen Antoine Winfield and Tre White really neutralize Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski at times, recently.   He really needs to be in the range of Kyle Pitts or Kelce.   If he just ends up being an upgrade on Knox they will need to upgrade the quality of targets at WR.   Which would already have been on the immediate to-do list with Diggs getting up there in age.  

I know Kincaid isn’t the best blocker, but I am guessing if teams want to cover him with a corner it will create advantages in the run game for Buffalo. Kind of a pick your poison. Now the defense has to play two tight ends in a nickel set, which really hurt the Bills 4-2-5 the last couple of years. It sounds like that is the plan for the Bills. Beane said teams would play their two tight end sets with heavy base personnel. The Bills want to force the other teams to defend their run game in a sub package. Also if they want to double Diggs they will have to play single high safety. The strategy puts pressure on defenses. 

[Thrivefourfive]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I think Kelce is his ceiling, but you are talking about a future HOF and one of the best to ever play the position. No one expects Kincaid will have Kelce's production right out of the gate. He's a big slot, or a flex TE. 

Please count me in that group as well. Kelce’s numbers are from his talent, QB’s talent, his coaches.. play design. If Allen were his quarterback in KC, I think Kelce’s numbers drop a bit. Just my opinion.

 

Of course we’d be insane not to take Kelce’s career right now for Kincaid. But I think even if he had all of the above help as Kelce does, he’s not touching those numbers. And that’s fine. But for a rd 1, that cost the team to move into, and the declare for “Help for Josh!” he’s going to have to do big numbers to be a success. 80 catches, 900 yds, 8+ TDs (not as a rookie or even year 2 or 3, but it has to trend that way and he’ll need a four year avg of those number in his prime).

Edited April 30, 2023 by Thrivefourfive

[Pokebball]

3 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

Not to pick nits, but "Utahite" is a mineral, a residentr of Utah is a "Utahn." That always stuck with me because it just looks and sounds weird.

 

Heartening to hear about how disappointed everyone who is not a Bills fan is in the Bills making Kincaid the pick at 25OA.

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Please count me in that group as well. Kelce’s numbers are from his talent, QB’s talent, his coaches.. play design. If Allen were his quarterback in KC, I think Kelce’s numbers drop a bit. Just my opinion.

 

Of course we’d be insane not to take Kelce’s career right now for Kincaid. But I think even if he had all of the above help as Kelce does, he’s not touching those numbers. And that’s fine. But for a rd 1, that cost the team to move into, and the declare for “Help for Josh!” he’s going to have to do big numbers to be a success. 80 catches, 900 yds, 8+ TDs (not as a rookie or even year 2 or 3, but it has to trend that way and he’ll need a four year avg of those number in his prime).

I was going to tell you those were really lofty expectations, but the edit clarified the meaning. He could fall somewhat short of that and still be a weapon and good player, but if he is special the way I believe he needs that kind of production to fully justify the pick.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I know Kincaid isn’t the best blocker, but I am guessing if teams want to cover him with a corner it will create advantages in the run game for Buffalo. Kind of a pick your poison. Now the defense has to play two tight ends in a nickel set, which really hurt the Bills 4-2-5 the last couple of years. It sounds like that is the plan for the Bills. Beane said teams would play their two tight end sets with heavy base personnel. The Bills want to force the other teams to defend their run game in a sub package. Also if they want to double Diggs they will have to play single high safety. The strategy puts pressure on defenses. 

 

 

Definitely agree it should provide a big advantage in the running game........in all situations..........but getting the Bills to run the ball more is at least something of a win for the opposing defense if how they defend the pass doesn't have to change.    That's where the floor of the strategy would fail to be a 1st-round-pick kinda' result, IMO.   For it to really work out.......Kincaid needs to be able to regularly beat the defensive back in the passing game.   And it's the confidence that he can do just that which made the Bills use that pick on him,  IMO.   As PFF noted he was the best receiving weapon in the draft.   

[Warcodered]

 

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Definitely agree it should provide a big advantage in the running game........in all situations..........but getting the Bills to run the ball more is at least something of a win for the opposing defense if how they defend the pass doesn't have to change.    That's where the floor of the strategy would fail to be a 1st-round-pick kinda' result, IMO.   For it to really work out.......Kincaid needs to be able to regularly beat the defensive back in the passing game.   And it's the confidence that he can do just that which made the Bills use that pick on him,  IMO.   As PFF noted he was the best receiving weapon in the draft.   

I guess I would also add that hopefully Kincaid can beat people with his size and route running. Jimmy Graham was always super raw, one year of college football, and really never a great route runner. He was jumping over people and there was never really much savvy to his game. The savvy was in the way Sean Payton used him in NO. That was the difference when he moved to Seattle imo. 
 

Kincaid isn’t quite the explosive athlete Graham was, but he seems to have some deep knowledge of coverages and a ton of savvy in his game to go along with speed and huge hands. If Kincaid is truly a roided up Beasley, he could be unstoppable in this offense. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I am confused by all this WR talk. He’s a TE, not a slot WR. In the NFL his mismatch is going to be boxing out strong safeties and beating linebackers up seams and crossing routes. Then some quirky shovel passes and whatnot. 
 

If he’s a WR, than he’ll draw coverage from a strong DB that can most certainly run with him, and over the top help.. because he seems to be the Bills deep threat(??)

 

To make this pick worth it, creativity that the Bills haven’t shown last year, needs to happen. Kelce type play designs need to happen. That’s a first round TE. But Kelce makes it work because he’s so damn good, and he’s got the best QB in football working together with him as the primary target. If Kincaid is just going to go out there and bag 50 catches for 500 yds and 5 touchdowns then what the hell is going on here..

Yeah, Travis Kelce is the obvious blueprint for what Kincaid can become.  Of course he’s not going to be Kelce right out of the box, but there’s no reason he can’t be Kelce-like.  The other teams in the AFC should be very concerned…

[Chaos]

On 4/28/2023 at 6:08 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

It'll be super interesting to see how many snaps Kincaid gets. I feel he'll get more than Dawson Knox and I won't be surprised if he gets more than Gabriel Davis.

Kincaid will get more than all other slot receivers combined.  I think Knox gets the same number as last year. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Redzone 15 yard line Shotgun formation:

 

Davis  Knox           Kincaid  Shorter  Diggs

 

some big targets!

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Redzone 15 yard line Shotgun formation:

 

Davis  Knox           Kincaid  Shorter  Diggs

 

some big targets!

Torrence to help block, makes the redzone running option very viable too. This is the key to adding Kincaid. 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Redzone 15 yard line Shotgun formation:

 

Davis  Knox           Kincaid  Shorter  Diggs

 

some big targets!

I just want to trot Harty out next to the behemoths. Confusion and laughter should work to our advantage.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I just want to trot Harty out next to the behemoths. Confusion and laughter should work to our advantage.

haha sounds good to me! 

[Thrivefourfive]

When we look at Kincaid advantages, I think his hands are freaky great. Eye test shows he’s a different looking ball grabber (ha). Hopkins-ish way of reaching out and smoothly clapping down, and the ball basically becomes part his person at that point. 

[TBBills Fan]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Has anyone told the Utahns/Utahites they have funny liquor laws? 

We wouldn't be able to have a beer and discuss this topic there today, legally 

[Demongyz]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Has anyone told the Utahns/Utahites they have funny liquor laws? 

It's really not that strange at all.  They don't have the law on beer anymore, and even Oregon requires you purchase alcohol from a state owned liquor store.  So Utah is pretty much like Oregon without the weed and heroin.

 

Edit:  I think you still can only order 1 drink at a time at a restaurant and must order food, or would be required to get a "membership" to go to a bar.  It wasn't that big of a deal the only time I've gone to a bar in Utah as my friend sponsored me, it was really weird though.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Demongyz

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Demongyz said:

It's really not that strange at all.  They don't have the law on beer anymore, and even Oregon requires you purchase alcohol from a state owned liquor store.  So Utah is pretty much like Oregon without the weed and heroin.

 

I’m glad to hear it may have straightened out. We were in Park City many years ago, and there was a thing about 3.2% beer and you had to be a “member” to be able to drink in a bar. I went to a place like 3 nights in a row buying drinks and food, and the next night some guy asks “are you a member?”  My blank stare answered his question. 

 

I moved to Hilton Head, SC after college. Back then SC  had those airplane mini-bottles in bars. Even going back to a Bills game the liquor store guy said something about even the tonic could not be 100% alcohol free. 

 

I’m not sure what’s accurate or what is not, but there are some goofy old laws out there! 

 

I think I heard that after prohibition each area got to make their own rules, and they varied widely. 

 

 

.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Augie