RD 1, Pick 25: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

[ytownblofan]

15 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Kincaid’s style makes perfect sense if we are still trying to obtain a WR2. Like brilliant sense. If we don’t draft one or get Hopkins, it’s a bit perplexing. 

 

We have a WR2, whether you want to admit it or not, we do. As you said, the stats speak for themselves.

 

Per Cover 1 

 

 

Now, obviously, this does not include his drop rate, which we can both agree is too high. But let's not sit here and say we do not have a WR2. Gabe is young, has loads of potential, and has put together a solid body of work. Could we improve the position? Certainly. Could we do a helluva lot worse, absolutely! Kincaid is only going to make this team, this offense, and I believe, Gabe Davis better. 

[inbetween]

This is a fantastic pick, great hands and more help to the O-line. Pete Mezelaars was a big reason we won four AFC Championships in a row. We have some good running backs that can go outside now in either direction with Knox and Kincaid in a two-tight end set. You can no longer just double team Diggs. Cross routes over the middle should make our offense less obvious to defend. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

50 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Yeah, I know. All the complaining here is a joke. I'm good. 👍

 

 

Dopey...yeah...we sour around here a lot don't we!  😅

 

Here is the thing that is silly though and why we shouldn't...

 

...it is sooooo long before we play.

 

That's what actually stinks a little about the draft.  After they finish up on Saturday I want a game on Sunday!

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Big Turk]

22 minutes ago, ytownblofan said:

 

We have a WR2, whether you want to admit it or not, we do. As you said, the stats speak for themselves.

 

Per Cover 1 

 

 

Now, obviously, this does not include his drop rate, which we can both agree is too high. But let's not sit here and say we do not have a WR2. Gabe is young, has loads of potential, and has put together a solid body of work. Could we improve the position? Certainly. Could we do a helluva lot worse, absolutely! Kincaid is only going to make this team, this offense, and I believe, Gabe Davis better. 

 

He was also hampered by that high ankle sprain a lot more than what was let on according to Beane.

[Buffalo716]

29 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think Beane loves him dual sport guys -

-baseball/football for S and DB (both Hyde and Poyer were high-level baseball players in HS)

-basketball/football for WR and TE

 

One of the things that made Stevie Johnson so hard to jam on the line were his basketball moves.  Beasley and McKenzie both played basketball - Beasley at 5'8" has video out there of him dunking, McKenzie claims he can dunk but I've seen no proof.

 

 

I wouldn’t doubt it

 

I’m not the tallest guy 5’9-5’10… I’ve always wanted to dunk

 

I can throw down a softball but not a basketball… Beasley and McKenzie probably dunk with authority

 

And Dalton is my favorite tight end Prospect in a long long time… The way he moves coupled with his hands… He will be Josh’s best friend

Edited April 28, 2023 by Buffalo716

[folz]

4 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is Davis is not good. Teams will just put a good corner on Kincaid because Davis never commands a double team. 
You can’t put a good corner on Kincaid if Hopkins is on our team, which is my entire point. Kincaid is a brilliant pick if Beane has something else planned. 

 

You are incorrect about that. Davis saw a good bit of double-teaming and/or bracketing last season also. Many opposing teams were not afraid of us doing any damage in the slot or with the run game, so they tried to take away Diggs and Davis both, and would take their chances over the middle of the field. The prior year (2021), he saw very little double teaming, because teams focused on Diggs and Beasley. 

 

Gabe Davis wasn't the problem with the offense last year, nor was Devin Singletary...it was the lack of weapons in the slot once Crowder went down (well and O-line too, but that's another discussion)). McKenzie was fast, but not good vs. zone. That's also why Josh didn't take the short/easy throws enough last year and seemed to go back to hero ball (well, lack of slot and his elbow injury). It's not because he forgot or regressed, it's because he didn't have players he could trust from that position. That's why they brought Cole back last year. And its also why Josh had to run more than they liked last year. This team self scouted, saw their biggest area of need, and addressed it with Kincaid and Deonte Harty. A big-body Cole Beasley (just meaning he knows how to play vs. zone and run great routes, great feet, great hands), and a more versatile and more consistent speedster in Harty (plus Shakir with a year under his belt now). We now have 6 players that can work the middle of the field (Harty, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Sherfield and Diggs). They made sure they weren't going to have the same issue as last season.

 

And by the way, attacking the middle of the field more should also help to open up the run game, not just the boundary receivers (regardless of O-line improvement). And Cover1 (and gobills404) posted a crazy stat that like 75% of Kincaid's production from the slot went for first downs or touchdowns. That was exactly our problem last year, we couldn't move the chains over the middle consistently enough, so Josh was going for the big plays to try and hit kill shots.

 

 

I think Dalton Kincaid is just what the doctor ordered. Love this pick! Go Bills!

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by folz

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, folz said:

You are incorrect about that. Davis saw a good bit of double-teaming and/or bracketing last season also. Many opposing teams were not afraid of us doing any damage in the slot or with the run game, so they tried to take away Diggs and Davis both, and would take their chances over the middle of the field. The prior year (2021), he saw very little double teaming, because teams focused on Diggs and Beasley.

 

This. 

 

Not to you but to everyone else - teams watch film and learn to ignore the plays/players the team won't use.  That's part of how Lamar Jackson got "solved", right? teams learned he would only throw between the hashes, he wouldn't take the sideline throws.

 

Last year, the Bills couldn't run very well, and didn't have a guy who Josh Allen trusted to be on the same page and open for the short/intermediate slot routes vs. zone.  So they could choke down on Diggs and Davis with no harms.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, ytownblofan said:

 

We have a WR2, whether you want to admit it or not, we do. As you said, the stats speak for themselves.

 

Per Cover 1 

 

 

Now, obviously, this does not include his drop rate, which we can both agree is too high. But let's not sit here and say we do not have a WR2. Gabe is young, has loads of potential, and has put together a solid body of work. Could we improve the position? Certainly. Could we do a helluva lot worse, absolutely! Kincaid is only going to make this team, this offense, and I believe, Gabe Davis better. 

No offense but this is a bad graphic and full disclosure I am a big fan of the cover1 guys

 

categories 1-5 are all basically the same in that we know he gets the ball downfield at a high rate: that means TDs will be high, adot high, ypc high, and explosive play percentage (basically a deep reception) all high. It's not that meaningful. 1st down rate is similarly connected. The issue w Davis is that he doesn't do anything except catch the ball downfield that well, PLUS he's a dropper of catchable passes. That's not really wr2 material imo

[aristocrat]

50 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

he’s gonna 86 some dbs 

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

While I don't think Kincaid is going to be an every snap player, I think that there are some really great ways he can be used and his presence should be a big relief for Diggs and Davis.

 

Well the bolded is a very interesting point that hasn't been addressed in 50+ pages until you brought it up. Aside from the QB and the O-linemen, offensive skill position players rarely play every snap. But a relevant fact is that Travis Kelce played 79.60% of Kansas City's offensive snaps last year.

 

It'll be super interesting to see how many snaps Kincaid gets. I feel he'll get more than Dawson Knox and I won't be surprised if he gets more than Gabriel Davis.

 

8 hours ago, Beast said:

Heard on GR this morning that the last TE drafted in the 1st round to make an impact for the team drafting him was Marcedes Lewis in 2006.

 

Out of curiosity do you just post stuff without looking it up?

 

To set the record straight, Kyle Pitts had over 1000 yards receiving in 2021... his rookie year. And as a rookie your guy Marcedes Lewis had 126 yards receiving.

 

Pretty epic fail right here, Beast. 

 

7 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I always fear there’s too much buy in to the “character” type guy. Kincaid appears to be an A+ human being. Hope he’s an A NFL football player. 

 

Have you watched any video of Kincaid yet? If so do you have an opinion on what you saw?

 

5 hours ago, ngbills said:

Any guesses on how many rookie TE's have 500 yards+ receiving in the past 3 drafts?

 

Only one and that is Pitts. This can be a good move but expectations seem high that he immediately is a difference maker. I dont hate the pick, and I need to move on, but still dont get why we didn't get TJ Hock at the trade deadline. At the time everyone was like - we dont use two TE's, you dont understand the Bills offense we dont need another TE, blah blah blah.  

 

FWIW, since 2017 4 have over 500 yards and Pat Freiermuth had 497 yards as a rookie. As for TJ Hockenson Minnesota gave up a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for Hockenson and 2 4th rounders... plus the remainder of his contract which is $9.4 million for 2023. He cost too much.

 

5 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Only in Bills universe could 809 yards 9 TDs be “not in the same league” as 890 yards 8 TDs. 

 

51 posts and counting... way more than any other poster in this topic. I see that repeating your opinions is very important to you.

 

5 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Watch the tape.  

 

Exactly. Again, too many people looking at measurables and either not watching the video or not understanding what they're seeing on the video.

 

4 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

Just beating a dead horse over and over in here. 

 

True. 57 pages of repeating the same points over and over.  The bright side is that every 10 posts or so you come across something you were glad you read by one of our many knowledgeable posters...

 

Interesting that the good posters get in and get out. Meanwhile crap posters keep repeating the same crappy crap that you have to slog through to get to the good stuff. I think it's pathological.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Beast]

1 minute ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

To set the record straight, Kyle Pitts had over 1000 yards receiving in 2021... his rookie year. And as a rookie your guy Marcedes Lewis had 126 yards receiving.

 

Pretty epic fail right here, Beast. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, the only fail is your reading comprehension. Jeremy White said it on GR. I posted what I heard. I didn’t say it.

 

In fact, I like the pick.

[ytownblofan]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No offense but this is a bad graphic and full disclosure I am a big fan of the cover1 guys

 

categories 1-5 are all basically the same in that we know he gets the ball downfield at a high rate: that means TDs will be high, adot high, ypc high, and explosive play percentage (basically a deep reception) all high. It's not that meaningful. 1st down rate is similarly connected. The issue w Davis is that he doesn't do anything except catch the ball downfield that well, PLUS he's a dropper of catchable passes. That's not really wr2 material imo

no offense taken, I agree it doesn’t tell the whole story on Gabe. However, I also think it shows he hasn’t been this sub par wide receiver that some posters want to make him out to be. 
 

I think Gabe has been a victim of the routes he has been asked to run and has been a victim of the epic Divisional game. People expected him to put up 2 TDs and 100+ every game. Comparing his stats to other WR2 around the league, he is comparable or better than most. I also think we need to define what “WR2” is. Most of what people want is another WR1. 
 

 

[The Wiz]

19 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Can he block?  That's all TE's do in this offense.

So now that I'm not drunk, I have come around on this pick.

 

I don't do pre-draft scouting and all that stuff but knew enough at the time that I didn't think it was the right pick.  That being said, watching his game film and how fluid he is at the position, it's looking like a really nice pick.  My favorite name that I heard him called was SWole Beasley considering his size and skillset for opening up the middle of the field.

 

P.S. - As a bonus we jumped Dallas and F'd up their draft.

 

P.P.S - The last time I was absolutely against a pick was Josh so hopefully I can get a job with the Bills scouting department on who I wouldn't take if this kid turns out a stud also.

[Warriorspikes51]

Ian R on NFL Network just said he knows a lot of coaches and GMs loved our move for Kincaid. Peter Schrager said we didn’t expect to get him

 

Ian R also said Rams tried trading into 1st for Kincaid and other teams were interested in him as well

Edited April 28, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[Andy1]

One of the beautiful things about this pick is that with every 1st down and TD Kincaid gets, I will be smiling knowing that we robbed him from Dallas. 😁

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

iF your talking Kincaid blocking is considered a weakness for him. Which is why he is visioned as a hybrid slot WR/TE for us..... at least early on

He does well taking on LBs and DBs in space but yeah he just doesn’t have the size or length to be an effective in-line blocker. Having him out there instead of a slot WR will still be a boost to the run game though.

[Success]

We have needed a guy like this in the red zone. His skillset will help us in a variety of ways - but that could be the biggest.

 

Very tough match-up for opposing D's in the red zone.

 

[Sierra Foothills]

27 minutes ago, Beast said:

Actually, the only fail is your reading comprehension. Jeremy White said it on GR. I posted what I heard. I didn’t say it.

 

In fact, I like the pick.

 

Beast.

 

It seems completely implausible to believe that the last rookie tight end to make "an impact" is someone who was a rookie 17 years ago.

 

I guess I'm sensitive to misinformation and how it spreads... more of a political thing than a sports thing but all the same too.

 

Sorry to jump on you.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

I want to thank all the posters who had interesting takes about our new rookie TE and links to informative sources.

This is why I come on this board!

 

As to "enabling" a poster who clearly doesn't like the pick, all I can say is I wish you guys would refuse to be baited.

This is my least favorite part of this board.