RD 1, Pick 25: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

[1ManRaid]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

ALL the negative emoticons on this thread are the same 5%ers we have to tolerate here every day. “PEOPLE” is being too kind. Bobby Heenan referred to these ‘folks’ as humanoids. That they’re all together in their Hate Spew and cluelessness tells you all you need to know. 
I think it’s a fine pick and probably worth losing a 4th rounder to trade up for. I believe he was the lone remaining player we had with a 1st Round grade, so we did well at #25 imo.

 

We did GREAT to get him at 25.

 

But yes, these "humanoids" were inevitably going to complain about not getting "their guy", regardless of the value of getting a top 10 talent and top 1 TE that far down the round.  No accounting for the run on WRs ahead of us, or the remaining OLs and LBs not having grades worth the pick.  It's easy to say we should have traded down, ignoring THEY WANTED KINCAID.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree...  We got two speedy wideouts in free agency and now a jumbo slot guy with good hands.  We needed a big target with good hands.  I won't say our receiver corps is elite but it's solid - certainly better than last year.  I just hope Gabe gets over the dropsies.  

 

My biggest offensive worry remains the OL.  The two new guards will help some but not enough.  I don't think the OL gets fixed this year.  

 

 

Bergeron, Avila, Mauch (all probably gone before 59, alas), Tippmann, Schmitz (might be there.)

Duncan and Steen in the third. Some solid day 2 talent for the oline. 

[ytownblofan]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is Davis is not good. Teams will just put a good corner on Kincaid because Davis never commands a double team. 
You can’t put a good corner on Kincaid if Hopkins is on our team, which is my entire point. Kincaid is a brilliant pick if Beane has something else planned. 

 

For the sake of argument, let's say this is true. How many "good corners" do most teams carry? 1 maybe 2. Cool, let's say 2 just for the argument, one on Diggs with likely bracket coverage, and the other "good corner" on Kincaid. Does that leave a team's 3rd best corner alone on an island against Davis? 

 

I present you, Gabe Davis, against an average corner, with no safety help:

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by ytownblofan

[In Summary]

8 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We could trade for Hopkins without taking the “win at any cost” approach. 

Agree

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He doesn’t have to be Kelce.  We need to win a Super Bowl with him for

gim to be a successful pick.  
 

He needs to convert key 3rd downs, be a red zone weapon and be Josh’s go-to scramble drill option that will be open when he’s not.  The most dependable ball catching machine.  
 

He doesn’t have to be the next best tight end ever.  

 

Exactly. 

In his 2018-2020 prime, Beasley was a 1D machine.  39, 37, 53 1D, falling off to 34 in 2021 with a corresponding fall-off in the Bills offense.  Last season, McKenzie had 30, and not all from the slot.

 

Look at Philly.   His yardage totals aren't outstanding, but Goeddert has been a 1D MACHINE For them.  42 and 40 the last two seasons.

Look at the Falcons.  Pitt had 43 1D as a rookie, with the Ghost of Matt Ryan hurling the ball. 

The question isn't whether a strong route-running TE can contribute on a team without 2 great WR.  Clearly they can.  The question is whether Josh will target him.

 

[26TrapDraw]

Love the way this kid plays. He will be an automatic chain mover when Josh rolls out and dumps it off to him in the flat. You can move him all over the place and I think he can beat almost every linebacker in the league 1 on 1 and probably most strong safeties. If he’s used right in 2 TE sets like we hear Dorsey wants to do then we got ourselves a player. Think the kid will be special. 

[frostbitmic]

17 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

BTW, not for nothing but what do we do when Dorsey lines him up, always, at FB?

 

 

I'm guessing Dorsey was up all night designing plays for this guy. He just got himself a potential game changing weapon, he'll create ways to use him.

[PrimeTime101]

9 minutes ago, ytownblofan said:

 

For the sake of argument, let's say this is true. How many "good corners" do most teams carry? 1 maybe 2. Cool, let's say 2 just for the argument, one on Diggs with likely bracket coverage, and the other "good corner" on Kincaid. Does that leave a team's 3rd best corner alone on an island against Davis? 

 

I present you, Gabe Davis, against an average corner with no safety help:

 

 

I would not bother with this. I am shocked he dug himself out of the last hole he put himself in to even post today...

 

And yes.. you are absolutely right. 

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We could trade for Hopkins without taking the “win at any cost” approach. 

 

It simply requires moving a piece to gain a piece. 
 

We could probably get back our 4th for Ed Oliver, clear 10M, have a manageable cap hit for DHop and only really need to figure out his cap hit next year in ‘24, with minimal dead cap into ‘25. 
 

However, if they’re not budging off pick 59, well… we kinda need that to draft Oliver’s replacement.  

 

Um..if we're moving a piece (Oliver) to gain a piece, then who is our 3TDT opposite Phillips (who is good, but struggles to stay on the field)?

That piece has to be replaced.

 

DHop's 2023 salary is $19.4M, 2024 is $14.9.  Last I looked, swapping a guy with a $10M salary for a guy with a $19.4M salary requires additional moves to be manageable.  I promise, the 31 yr old Hopkins is not signing up to take a pay cut, so the way to make it "manageable" is to extend Mr 31 yr old, "I needed PED to heal from my last injury" for 4-5 years.

 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, LEBills said:

I didn’t know teams shared that info and that makes me feel much better. As a receiver Kincaid is exactly the type of player we were missing, very excited.

 

The Bills are one of the clubs that are a member of BLESTO. There are other "scouting organizations" which share basic information about players including measurables and medical information:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_Scouting_Combine#Scouting_organizations

 

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

And all this comparing him to Pitts I don’t understand why a player hast to be compared to the most freak athlete at a position to be determined whether it’s a success or not suppose Dalton ends up being Mike Gesicki would that be a win? I think it would.

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Well that's kinda the point.... what is the success criteria. In most drafts would I call Mike Gesicki style production from a 1st round tight end a win? No. In this draft would I? Possibly. Although I think he is more Hunter Henry than Mike Gesicki in terms of style. Henry went early 2nd from memory, Gesicki a little later round 2. 

 

Looking at Kincaid he's definitely not Pitts (who is?) but he's not Gesicki either. Gesicki is more that long-bodied athlete who's more of an oversized receiver than a tight end... a bit more towards Darren Waller.

 

Kincaid, while not an "inline tight end" is a bit more compact and thick than Gesicki.

 

Hunter Henry's name came up as a comparable. Kincaid is much more of a fluid athlete than Henry. Henry looks more like a Mayer-type tight end.

 

Kincaid reminds me a great deal of Dallas Clark while others compare him to Zach Ertz. I think both are good comparisons as far as athletic profile.

 

 

4 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I sooo wish we had athletic testing on him, super curious to see where his speed, burst, and agility times would have been. 

 

Andy, I would say to watch the video. A lot of people get misinformed by measurables.

 

They look at the numbers and start having weird ideas such as "Dalton Kincaid is a duplicate of Dawson Knox." One would only come to that conclusion if they looked at measurables and not video.

 

4 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Skip Bayless

@RealSkipBayless

·

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I WAS ONE PICK AWAY FROM DALTON KINCAID -- AND BUFFALO LEAP-FROGGED MY COWBOYS AND STOLE HIM RIGHT OUT FROM UNDER JERRY'S UPTURNED NOSE. DEVASTATING.

 

I depise Skip Bayless but he wrote for the Dallas Morning News for a long time and is very wired into the Cowboys organization. If he says that the Cowboys wanted Kincaid, that leaves very little doubt.

 

 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I'm guessing Dorsey was up all night designing plays for this guy. He just got himself a potential game changing weapon, he'll create ways to use him.

 

I had the same thought.  Would not surprise me if any "War Room" photos of Dorsey show deep holes under his eyes.

[sonyab1974]

I saw video clips of him playing in games, and WOW!!! He is good. Glad he is chosen.

[buffaloboyinATL]

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We could trade for Hopkins without taking the “win at any cost” approach. 

 

It simply requires moving a piece to gain a piece. 
 

We could probably get back our 4th for Ed Oliver, clear 10M, have a manageable cap hit for DHop and only really need to figure out his cap hit next year in ‘24, with minimal dead cap into ‘25. 
 

However, if they’re not budging off pick 59, well… we kinda need that to draft Oliver’s replacement.  

Yeah, I have been thinking this is a possibility too, but there is no one on the roster today, that I can think of, that would fill Ed's role.  So as you said, we would likely need to add one in round 3, if Hopkins costs us our 2nd.  If we find a serviceable "replacement" for Ed O, I guess Kincaid, Hopkins, best DT available and OL/LB in Rd 4, would be a pretty good first 4 rounds...

[Billz4ever]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Exactly. 

In his 2018-2020 prime, Beasley was a 1D machine.  39, 37, 53 1D, falling off to 34 in 2021 with a corresponding fall-off in the Bills offense.  Last season, McKenzie had 30, and not all from the slot.

 

Look at Philly.   His yardage totals aren't outstanding, but Goeddert has been a 1D MACHINE For them.  42 and 40 the last two seasons.

Look at the Falcons.  Pitt had 43 1D as a rookie, with the Ghost of Matt Ryan hurling the ball. 

The question isn't whether a strong route-running TE can contribute on a team without 2 great WR.  Clearly they can.  The question is whether Josh will target him.

 

 

Beasley was one of Josh's favorite targets.  The slot role evaporated from the offense last season and it was evident.  Beasley was the safe outlet who always seemed to be able to find the hole in the zone and be there when Josh needed him. He wasn't there this past season and we saw Josh revert to hero ball at times.

 

I don't think Dorsey's playcalling helped the situation as I felt it fed Josh's bad behaviors at times and we didn't really use Knox as much as we should've either.   If Dorsey can truly reinvent the Cole Beasley role that Beane talked about Kincaid being, just in a different package, we will have the piece back that was so glaringly missing last season.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Billz4ever

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Um..if we're moving a piece (Oliver) to gain a piece, then who is our 3TDT opposite Phillips (who is good, but struggles to stay on the field)?

That piece has to be replaced.

 

DHop's 2023 salary is $19.4M, 2024 is $14.9.  Last I looked, swapping a guy with a $10M salary for a guy with a $19.4M salary requires additional moves to be manageable.  I promise, the 31 yr old Hopkins is not signing up to take a pay cut, so the way to make it "manageable" is to extend Mr 31 yr old, "I needed PED to heal from my last injury" for 4-5 years.

 

Pretty sure I addressed that with my last paragraph.  We’d need that pick 59 so draft his replacement.  If that’s what AZ demands, welp.. not going to happen. 
 

We’d have void years in his contract.  
 

It’s not ideal, but we’d likely have to deal with some dead cap in a Hopkins trade.   
 

Trading Oliver to offset 10M just allows for that to be manageable in terms of future years team building. 

[WideNine]

Awesome ceiling, but like most here I too wonder if he will get enough looks from Allen in this offense.

 

If Allen and Dorsey can make that purposeful shift targeting our TEs then this pick may look genius.

 

The top guy on Beane's board at that spot with Campbell going so early.

 

Hoping for a decent Mike and a solid 1-tech... then wherever the chips fall.

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by WideNine

[Dopey]

37 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

BTW, not for nothing but what do we do when Dorsey lines him up, always, at FB?

 

 

I know this is Toxic Bills Drive, but how about we complain about it if it actually happens? Geez.

[since79]

As the draft approached I started to look at this guy. What I like is he was a basketball player.  Some of the better pass catching TE were basketball players.  Tony Gonzales, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce all were basketball players.  Even our last good tight end Pete Metzellaars was a standout basketball player. They are great in traffic, know how to shield with their body, have a firm grip on the ball in the paint and find open space in smaller holes.  

 

This guy will be very valuable if he displays any of these traits at the pro level.   It has been a long time since we had a guy who actually stretched the seams.  A lot of Kincaid's highlights show that downfield ability.  He has big hands that are vacuums. I can't wait to see him lined up and see what miss matches he can create.

 

I

Edited April 28, 2023 by since79

[ngbills]

Any guesses on how many rookie TE's have 500 yards+ receiving in the past 3 drafts?

 

Only one and that is Pitts. This can be a good move but expectations seem high that he immediately is a difference maker. I dont hate the pick, and I need to move on, but still dont get why we didn't get TJ Hock at the trade deadline. At the time everyone was like - we dont use two TE's, you dont understand the Bills offense we dont need another TE, blah blah blah.  

[Shemp]

Draft Cam Rising -- Kincaid's QB -- as a possibly low draft pick or undrafted free agent QB? Not a bad idea.

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/utah-qb-cam-rising-2023-nfl-draft-projection-can-future-nfl-star#:~:text=He is likely looking to help with his,Cam Rising to move up on draft boards.