McBean’s draft history and who we draft at 27

[Tipster19]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

well thought out post, thanks for sharing. Go Bills!

[LEBills]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

They likely are.  They've had Shakir in the system for a year and went out and got 2 more slot receivers (although at 6'1" and 219# with 4.45 speed, I could see Sherfield playing outside).

Addison can play all over the field which is a positive.

 

IMO, Sherfield is an upgraded Kumerow, Harty is an upgraded McKenzie, Shakir is being trained for that old Gabe Davis WR4 role.

 

I think there is room on the team for a third receiver, even one that plays a lot in the slot like Addison would on this team.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

great post!!
 

I think they make an exception for Hyatt.

 

elite speed: check

age: check

production: 5 TD’s against Bama can count for a second year of production hahahaha

[Chaos]

16 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I recently read an analysis of younger vs older draft picks. There did seem to be something to taking the younger prospects - even in the early seasons after being drafted. It wasn’t so much that their production was off the charts great so much as the older prospects did relatively poorly overall. Even the best GMs have a hit rate below 50%. 

I don't think younger age causes success. Many of the very best players leave college early because they are ready.  But young age isn't a feature, as much as it is a side effect in those cases. 

[Chicken Boo]

The ceiling is so much higher on Jalin Hyatt.  I hope Beane goes for the explosive guy this team desperately needs.  

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I don't think younger age causes success. Many of the very best players leave college early because they are ready.  But young age isn't a feature, as much as it is a side effect in those cases. 

I think that’s the reasoning. If a player can excel in college at a younger age, then they have a better chance at being a good pro than a player who doesn’t excel in college until they are among the oldest players competing. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

I’d say he’s trading down but it feels like no one wants to move up.   

They'll be few trade down partners with roughly 15 or so true 1st round talents.  Unfortunately players like JSN, Flowers, Addison, Wright, Bijan and Kincaid will all be gone.  I agree 27 is a very awkward position for this draft.  I could live with Branch, Harrison or M. Smith but still praying for a trade down to 2nd. 

[Dr. Who]

50 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

The ceiling is so much higher on Jalin Hyatt.  I hope Beane goes for the explosive guy this team desperately needs.  

I've been thinking of him as a second rounder. The Tennessee offense just didn't require much of a route tree from him and the scheme bought him a lot of open space that is harder to come by in the pro game. When you look at the potential, however, it is a high ceiling, so I'm coming around towards thinking maybe he should be a consideration at 27.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I've been thinking of him as a second rounder. The Tennessee offense just didn't require much of a route tree from him and the scheme bought him a lot of open space that is harder to come by in the pro game. When you look at the potential, however, it is a high ceiling, so I'm coming around towards thinking maybe he should be a consideration at 27.

I don’t have a top 30 grade in Hyatt but he’s is in the top 50

 

i love his gait… he didn’t blaze a 4.3 but he gallops like a thoroughbred 

 

I think he’s a lee evans type guy , without the polish rn 

[John from Riverside]

I may be wrong on this, but I think that you’re wrong on the age of Tremaine Edmunds, when he was drafted

[Nephilim17]

Interesting observations, OP. Thanks.

That said, the 21 and under thing, that may be more of a fluke than a criterion of Beane's.

 

I don't see the logic in drafting someone 21 over 22 or even 23 as a 22-year-old after a five year contract is 26 at the end of his first 5-year contract and a new 4-year deal still only makes him 30 at the end of a second 4-year deal. Or 31 at the end of a second 4-year deal for a guy who is 23.

 

Trying to draft based on who you're gonna give a third contract to based on age is nuts, IMHO. 

If you get a player to stick around for 9 years that should be a win. Who cares if he's 30, 31 or 32 after that.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Nephilim17

[LEBills]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I may be wrong on this, but I think that you’re wrong on the age of Tremaine Edmunds, when he was drafted

“21 years old or younger” 👍

 

Pretty sure Tremaine was in his way to prom when we drafted him

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

Are you seriously excluding the best WR in the draft due to “lack of production”?

 

I would hope that you realize this glaring error indicates that you’re clueless, thus rendering your entire post worthless. 

[LEBills]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

Interesting observations, OP. Thanks.

That said, the 21 and under thing, that may be more of a fluke than a criterion of Beane's.

 

I don't see the logic in drafting someone 21 over 22 or even 23 as a 22-year-old after a five year contract is 26 at the end of his first 5-year contract and a new 4-year deal still only makes him 30 at the end of a second 4-year deal. Or 31 at the end of a second 4-year deal for a guy who is 23. Trying to draft based on who you're gonna give a third contract to based on age is nuts, IMJHO. 

If you get a player to stick around for 9 years that should be a win. Who cares if he's 30, 31 or 32 after that.

 

I’m not really diving into the logic of it, just something that keeps happening the last 5 years. As we look to narrow down who we may draft this year, that just happens to be one thing they all had in common.

 

When you pair a young age with two years of production (basically starting being productive in college as a 19 year old) I think those two together give you a more full profile of what they look for.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

great post!!
 

I think they make an exception for Hyatt.

 

elite speed: check

age: check

production: 5 TD’s against Bama can count for a second year of production hahahaha

I think Hyatt is dynamic and his game speed is great 

 

but 4.40 is not elite anymore … If he ran a 4.30 I would take him 100% at 27

 

The 4.4 makes it tougher in the top 30 with his physicality … 4.4 isn’t elite on the radar anymore 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[LEBills]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

Are you seriously excluding the best WR in the draft due to “lack of production”?

 

I would hope that you realize this glaring error indicates that you’re clueless, thus rendering your entire post worthless. 

I don’t really think JSN will be there for the Bills if that’s what you mean. But he does not fit what they have drafted in the past. I would take him if he is there at 27

[Nephilim17]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think Hyatt is dynamic and his game speed is great 

 

but 4.40 is not elite anymore … If he ran a 4.30 I would take him 100% at 27

 

The 4.4 makes it tough are in the top 30 with his physicality 

I'm not a college fan but looking at Hyatt's highlights I thought for sure he'd be sub-4.40. Was shocked to see the second number of his run was not a 3.

Was the competition in the highlights just that slow or what? He looked so fast on the field.

[BillMafia716ix]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Again having Shakir, Harty and Sherfield, I can't see them taking a slot WR at 27. 

This. I expect them to draft an interior lineman or LB with their first pick. 

[pennstate10]

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I don’t really think JSN will be there for the Bills if that’s what you mean. But he does not fit what they have drafted in the past. I would take him if he is there at 27

But that’s not what you wrote. Here is what you wrote. 
 

“WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)”

 

I don’t know. When posters write stuff that’s obviously wrong, and then lie about it, that makes me think said poster’s opinions are useless. 
 

 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not a college fan but looking at Hyatt's highlights I thought for sure he'd be sub-4.40. Was shocked to see the second number of his run was not a 3.

Was the competition in the highlights just that slow or what? He looked so fast on the field.

So I’m very shocked he did not run sub 4.4

 

As someone who’s played coached and scouted for 30 years… I have a pretty good eye for 40s

 

I can see the difference between a 4.44 and a 4.49 pretty well… I could tell lavishka shenault a few years ago was a 4.5+ guy but since he ran by people everybody thought he must be 4.4s or 4.3s… it’s east to see he’s not 

 

now I pegged Hyatt as a 4.35 guy and a 4.40 is very surprising …. But runners have bad days … and his gait at 30 yards is perfect 

 

no wasted movement … I’m just bummed he probably had a bad day