McBean’s draft history and who we draft at 27

[LEBills]

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I feel we may be at an awkard spot at #27 if there is a run on offensive tackles. I think Beane will try his best to trade down for more picks and then move up the draft board to get his guy. OT and ILB are the obvious holes, but TE are DT also need to be addressed.

 

It seems like Beane makes more draft day trades than any other GM.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Allen2Diggs

[Big Blitz]

I’d say he’s trading down but it feels like no one wants to move up.   

[LEBills]

8 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I feel we may be at an awkard spot at #27 if there is a run on offensive tackles. I think Beane will try his best to trade down for more picks and then move up the draft board to get his guy. OT and ILB are the obvious holes, but TE are DT also need to be addressed.

 

It seems like Beane makes more draft day trades than any other GM.

 

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I’d say he’s trading down but it feels like no one wants to move up.   

Whether we trade up, stay put or trade back the draft targets likely remain the same barring a large move. just more on the list would be available/gone.

 

We traded up for Josh and Tremaine who fit all of the criteria

 

When we didn’t have a first rounder due to the Diggs trade, AJ Epenesa again fit the criteria

[ClemsonBills]

Tremaine wasn’t 21 when drafted. I don’t even know if he’s 21 yet…

[LEBills]

Just now, ClemsonBills said:

Tremaine wasn’t 21 when drafted. I don’t even know if he’s 21 yet…

 21 or younger 👍 sorry if that wasn’t clear in the post. 

[BigAl2526]

9 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I feel we may be at an awkard spot at #27 if there is a run on offensive tackles. I think Beane will try his best to trade down for more picks and then move up the draft board to get his guy. OT and ILB are the obvious holes, but TE are DT also need to be addressed.

 

It seems like Beane makes more draft day trades than any other GM.

Yes, I think the Bills are very likely feeling like they are in a difficult spot at #27.  By most estimates there are less than 20 players in the draft that would normally be considered first round caliber.  Odds are slim that one of the top 20 will last until #27.  A month ago, I said I thought it was more likely that the Bills trade down rather than up, if they do swing a trade.  The other day, Beane basically confirmed my thinking.  Of course, given the paucity of elite talent in this draft, it makes finding a partner in a trade who wants to move up to #27 that much more difficult to find.  If Buffalo makes a pick at #27, I'm pretty certain that a lot more of us will be unhappy with the pick than thrilled with it.

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, LEBills said:

 

Whether we trade up, stay put or trade back the draft targets likely remain the same barring a large move. just more on the list would be available/gone.

 

We traded up for Josh and Tremaine who fit all of the criteria

 

When we didn’t have a first rounder due to the Diggs trade, AJ Epenesa again fit the criteria

Pretty impressive sleuth work.

[Big Blitz]

If stuck, just take Downs - guaranteed starter in the slot.  That’s a win.  
 

I’m only sold that Harty is a weapon.  Not a regular slot guy.  Injury history to.  
 

If my OTs aren’t there, and Addison is gone - go Josh Downs.

 

 

Starting slot WR.  Arguably the best one in this class.  

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

If stuck, just take Downs - guaranteed starter in the slot.  That’s a win.  
 

I’m only sold that Harty is a weapon.  Not a regular slot guy.  Injury history to.  
 

If my OTs aren’t there, and Addison is gone - go Josh Downs.

 

 

Starting slot WR.  Arguably the best one in this class.  

Even better, trade 27 for 34. Pick up Hopkins, take Downs at the top of the second.

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

If stuck, just take Downs - guaranteed starter in the slot.  That’s a win.  
 

I’m only sold that Harty is a weapon.  Not a regular slot guy.  Injury history to.  
 

If my OTs aren’t there, and Addison is gone - go Josh Downs.

 

 

Starting slot WR.  Arguably the best one in this class.  

Downs is awesome and would match what the Bills look for. The only thing with him is he had 0 top 30 visits. Not one team brought him in. I’m guessing here, but I think he is going to go later than people are expecting. Like James Cook territory. 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Downs is awesome and would match what the Bills look for. The only thing with him is he had 0 top 30 visits. Not one team brought him in. I’m guessing here, but I think he is going to go later than people are expecting. Like James Cook territory. 

Awesome if he is there at 59. Given your parameters, and we know the Bills brought Darnell Washington in for a visit, what if he passed their team medicals? Wouldn't he be a consideration?

[Doc]

Again having Shakir, Harty and Sherfield, I can't see them taking a slot WR at 27. 

[BADOLBILZ]

40 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I feel we may be at an awkard spot at #27 if there is a run on offensive tackles.

 

 

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

[Chaos]

50 minutes ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

This is a good analysis, but I don’t think the age strategy has worked out. Teams gain no advantage “developing” young players.  They just lose valuable rookie contract production. Any chance Beane has learned this ?

[Simon Says]

The trend for the NFL (this century,especially, last decade) has been to draft the 21 year olds,so nothing unique about the Bills picking 21 year olds. With the wage scale,there is less incentive to stay in college:  players want to start earning ,so they can get into their second contract earlier and make significantly more money. Your logic is flawed.

 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

Nice work. Thank you for posting. 

[LEBills]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Awesome if he is there at 59. Given your parameters, and we know the Bills brought Darnell Washington in for a visit, what if he passed their team medicals? Wouldn't he be a consideration?

I think he would, probably around Mayer’s level. The production may be a little lacking for him as well but since his main value is blocking it may be tough to judge.

 

15 minutes ago, Doc said:

Again having Shakir, Harty and Sherfield, I can't see them taking a slot WR at 27. 

I hope they don’t look at that list and say “we good at slot receiver”

 

4 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

The trend for the NFL (this century,especially, last decade) has been to draft the 21 year olds,so nothing unique about the Bills picking 21 year olds. With the wage scale,there is less incentive to stay in college:  players want to start earning ,so they can get into their second contract earlier and make significantly more money. Your logic is flawed.

 

Yea it’s not just 21, there are other criteria. Over the course of 5 years it is not a guarantee but more of an educated guess.

 

12 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is a good analysis, but I don’t think the age strategy has worked out. Teams gain no advantage “developing” young players.  They just lose valuable rookie contract production. Any chance Beane has learned this ?

Not necessarily what I would do, but the Bills seem to have a type that I am using to guess. We will see on Thursday!

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is a good analysis, but I don’t think the age strategy has worked out. Teams gain no advantage “developing” young players.  They just lose valuable rookie contract production. Any chance Beane has learned this ?

I recently read an analysis of younger vs older draft picks. There did seem to be something to taking the younger prospects - even in the early seasons after being drafted. It wasn’t so much that their production was off the charts great so much as the older prospects did relatively poorly overall. Even the best GMs have a hit rate below 50%. 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

I hope they don’t look at that list and say “we good at slot receiver”

 

They likely are.  They've had Shakir in the system for a year and went out and got 2 more slot receivers (although at 6'1" and 219# with 4.45 speed, I could see Sherfield playing outside).