"We can't get an impact WR in the 2nd round"

[Warriorspikes51]

51 minutes ago, Success said:

It wouldn't shock me if we didn't pick a WR at all.

 

And I don't think that would a bad thing.  Improving the line should be the top priority.  Allen will make all of the guys we have stars if he has more time.

 

seems unlikely. We had a lot of visits with WR’s

[HappyDays]

Quote

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

 

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by HappyDays

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Go OT, Mingo, AND trade for Hopkins.  
 

That’s my dream scenario.   

^^
 

Yes I’m good with Wright at 27 - if no OT trade back again - assuming we’ve done so already with Arizona for Nuke

Wright, Mingo and trade a 3rd for Dhop would be a HR.  Dream scenario. 

[MJS]

Well, this WR draft kind of sucks, in my opinion.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

12 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Why am I seeing this loser mentality in every thread?

 

It's ok if you want to trade for DeAndre Hopkins or if you feel Beane has a bad track record in the 2nd round ... but multiple threads have these snarky little comments like "oh boy, can't wait to get another AJ Epenesa this year!!" 

 

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Again, totally fine if you like the certainty of trading for Hopkins, but acting like 2nd round picks are "overrated" is insane. Imagine having any of those guys above for cheap across from Diggs for the next 4 years. Now, imagine using the $20M/yr Hopkins is due on a DE/DT/OG/etc. from Free Agency... in ADDITION to still having Deebo, Brown, Higgins, etc. THAT is why 2nd round picks are valuable. Drop the "we never get it right :(" attitude and try a little optimism. 👍

 

Most of the best Wrs in NFL are drafted after the first rd . It’s kind of like the running back position when it comes to value in the draft but hardly anyone talks about it. U kind find great Wr’s threw out the draft. 

[Rigotz]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

Or…

 

Hold on…

 

Let me see if I can figure out how to do this…

 

Hmm…

 

Trade down?

[hondo in seattle]

Like a lot of fans, I was underwhelmed with our receiving corps last year (not including Diggs).  Still - and this is an admittedly a crazy idea though not as crazy as the infamous Ditka Ricky Williams draft - I wouldn't be upset if Beane drafted nothing but offensive linemen.   With 6 picks, we'd be bound to upgrade our line... wouldn't we?  

 

Give the receivers more time to gain separation and they'll get open.  

[BigAl2526]

I don't think it is certain that any WRs drafted in the first round will be an impact player.  Jazon Smith-Njigba has decent odds of being an impact player.  Beyond him, I think it is a crap shoot.

[Sierra Foothills]

14 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Still - and this is an admittedly a crazy idea though not as crazy as the infamous Ditka Ricky Williams draft - I wouldn't be upset if Beane drafted nothing but offensive linemen.   With 6 picks, we'd be bound to upgrade our line... wouldn't we?  

 

Give the receivers more time to gain separation and they'll get open.  

 

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxAn-oObwNlst0jdIBUCj1KYfSMDUOMQIf

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[LABILLBACKER]

21 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Most of the best Wrs in NFL are drafted after the first rd . It’s kind of like the running back position when it comes to value in the draft but hardly anyone talks about it. U kind find great Wr’s threw out the draft. 

This is very true. I think something like 23% of NFL players are udfa's.  If we don't land the wr we're after at 27 or 59, then hopefully we can trade for Dhop and look for udfa value. Ride Gabe for one final year.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/25/2023 at 4:33 AM, Rigotz said:

Why am I seeing this loser mentality in every thread?

 

It's ok if you want to trade for DeAndre Hopkins or if you feel Beane has a bad track record in the 2nd round ... but multiple threads have these snarky little comments like "oh boy, can't wait to get another AJ Epenesa this year!!" 

 

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Again, totally fine if you like the certainty of trading for Hopkins, but acting like 2nd round picks are "overrated" is insane. Imagine having any of those guys above for cheap across from Diggs for the next 4 years. Now, imagine using the $20M/yr Hopkins is due on a DE/DT/OG/etc. from Free Agency... in ADDITION to still having Deebo, Brown, Higgins, etc. THAT is why 2nd round picks are valuable. Drop the "we never get it right :(" attitude and try a little optimism. 👍

 

 

 

 

Yup. Good point.

 

It's also fair to point out that this year is a bit weaker than recent past years, but a 2nd round WR could easily turn out to be a terrific pick.

 

And IMO you're being a bit kind with the Hopkins folks. Unless Arizona eats a ton of his contract, he's just too expensive, and probably would cost too much in trade to be a one-year rental, yet we'd have a very hard time re-signing him after this year.

 

I think it's pretty unlikely we end up with him. Not impossible, but quite unlikely.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/25/2023 at 2:10 PM, HappyDays said:

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

 

 

Van Jefferson at #57

Metcalf at #64 (and Metcalf had injury problems in college but his fall was more from concerns about stiffness and a limited route tree and concerns he would need a lot of development)

Parris Campbell at #59 exactly\

Terry McLaurin at #76

Smith-Shuster at #62

Cooper Kupp at #69

Chris Godwin at #84

Tyler Boyd at #55

Tyreek in the 5th

 

You can still get guys at that level or later. 

 

It's not a dead zone.

 

Yes, the percentages go down the further back you go, but that absolutely does not mean you can't do very well there a pretty reasonable percentage of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

[BearNorth]

Since he posts WR numbers in terms of catches and TD's, Kelce was a third-rounder, probably the best tight end in league history.

 

 

[90sBills]

Evaluating players is such a subjective process. There will always be talent that drops to later rounds. Not sure if Beane is able to identify WR talent given his track record. 

[DCofNC]

On 4/24/2023 at 2:20 PM, John from Riverside said:

Do the numbers actually reflect that?

You are joking, right?  Pittman has far out produced Davis and he’s done it with half the QB throwing him the ball.

[jethro_tull]

Good points.  It is difficult to get an immediate impact WR in the first round, let alone he second