Peter King/FMIA/PFT 1st Round Mock Draft

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There’s never 27 1st round grades but magically whoever the Bills draft will be a 1st rounder on their board I’m sure. Wink wink.

 

AJ Epenesa was a 1st round grade Beane said. I don’t believe him, but that’s what he said.

12 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I feel like Downs could be a guy we target but he’s strictly a slot. Albeit a very good slot who may have the best hands in the WR class. I just feel like if that’s where we go we can probably trade back a little and get him in the second for some added value 

I’ve been wondering about slot WR value. That’s what the Bills want and need. But value wise those guys are typically mid round picks. Times are changing though with most teams running 11 personnel.

 

This draft the top 3 WRs are slot guys.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’ll be signed this summer. Going no where. He’s their WR 2/3 of the now and future.

Would not bet on that.

[aristocrat]

Downs didn’t visit so if we’re taking wr it’s flowers or Addison 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s never 27 1st round grades but magically whoever the Bills draft will be a 1st rounder on their board I’m sure. Wink wink.

 

AJ Epenesa was a 1st round grade Beane said. I don’t believe him, but that’s what he said.

There are at best around 16 first round grades in this draft. Highly unlikely any of them fall to 27, but possible. Maybe one falls into the low 20s and Beane trades up if he covets the player.

[34-78-83]

36 minutes ago, zow2 said:

There was a time I thought the Bills were going to draft Bijan Robinson.  That ship has sailed. With every passing week he moves higher and higher.  Peter K has him in the top-10.  

Regardless of how good he is or where he lands, that move would make less than zero sense for the Bills with the QB they have, the offense they run with and the RB personnel they already have in place (Cook is perfect for this offense, and Harris can get needed yards). It would be amongst the worst drafting strategies in Bills history, and there have been some bad ones especially the ones outside of Beane and Polian. 

[newcam2012]

 

I'm not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse. He was plenty heathly for most of the season: especially down the stretch. He simply didn't produce as well as many fans expected. 

 

Davis arguably has one of the best QBs throwing him the ball. One of the best QBs extending plays. Ask yourself how much better does Allen make Davis? What kind of WR would he be with an average QB? I'd argue Allen makes Davis look better than he is. 

 

One stat that really rears its ugly head is Gabe's catch rate and drops. His catch ratio was 51% and his drop rate was 10%  You just can't spin that into goodness. At best, he's a mediocre number two with an elite QB padding his stats. Imho, he's as replaceable as it gets.

 

No way is he worth a 15 million plus contract. Imho, the prudent strategic move would be to trade him, let him walk, sign Dhop, or draft a promising WR saving millions on a rookie contract. 

[Motorin']

16 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Yeah don't love a slot guy there. Nice explosion and speed, but it's the definition of meh. 

 

For me, my "no's" in the first round are typically:  

RTs

IOL - Zack Martin/Quentin Nelson level players are the exception

Non elite slot WRs without standout traits

blocking TEs

Run defensing edge guys who don't get sacks

Nose tackles

RBs other than Saquon/Bijan level guys

small/short QBs

 

To me Downs is a non elite smaller slot with meh traits. If he's running in the 4.3s it's a different story at that size. 

 

 

Downs does have elite hands. He catches everything. Caught 94 passes on 116 targets last year. 

 

In our offense that's near the top of the league in drops, there's something to be said for that. 

 

I do prefer an inside/ outside threat though if we're looking for a new #2 receiver. 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Would not bet on that.

He’s everything they want in a player. Consistency issues sure, but Knox had them as well. Knox is everything they want in a player. We’ll see a similar contract.

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s never 27 1st round grades but magically whoever the Bills draft will be a 1st rounder on their board I’m sure. Wink wink.

 

AJ Epenesa was a 1st round grade Beane said. I don’t believe him, but that’s what he said.

I’ve been wondering about slot WR value. That’s what the Bills want and need. But value wise those guys are typically mid round picks. Times are changing though with most teams running 11 personnel.

Just because the Bills have a first round grade does not mean others do, nor that they are right.  Obviously, people didn’t have the grade on JA17 that the Bills did, they were right.  Looks like the rest of the league was right on AJE.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s everything they want in a player. Consistency issues sure, but Knox had them as well. Knox is everything they want in a player. We’ll see a similar contract.

Despite the glowing rhetoric about how they love Gabe Davis' work ethic, I think this is a prove it year for him. I believe he is pretty much the player you see now which imo is a low end WR2. He might see that second contract, but I would not confidently assert it.

[DCofNC]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s everything they want in a player. Consistency issues sure, but Knox had them as well. Knox is everything they want in a player. We’ll see a similar contract.

Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and disagree.  He’s the type of guy you are happy to have on a rookie deal.  Paying a guy who’s often injured (though playing), and wildly inconsistent, is not a guy you want to pay 10-12M a year.

[dave mcbride]

51 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Downs is probably somewhere around the 35th - 40th best player. Roughly. Haven't crept into the Bills draft room, so I don't know how they see him, but that seems to be the general consensus.

 

They might not have the chance to trade back. But IMO if they can't trade back, Downs won't be who they go with. 

 

Guess we'll see. Again, I like Downs a lot. Just not at #27.

Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 posted today. He has Downs at 60th: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2023-nfl-draft-class.

[whorlnut]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There’s never 27 1st round grades but magically whoever the Bills draft will be a 1st rounder on their board I’m sure. Wink wink.

 

AJ Epenesa was a 1st round grade Beane said. I don’t believe him, but that’s what he said.

I’ve been wondering about slot WR value. That’s what the Bills want and need. But value wise those guys are typically mid round picks. Times are changing though with most teams running 11 personnel.

 

This draft the top 3 WRs are slot guys.

You don’t get it. If the bills have 15 first round grades and other teams take players that they have graded later, then first round graded players fall. It’s very conceivable that there will be a player or players that might be there that are graded as firsts. 

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 posted today. He has Downs at 60th: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2023-nfl-draft-class.

I'd consider him at 59 if we did not take a WR in the first. I like him, but I am not in agreement with the folks that think slot is the priority at receiver.

[JoPoy88]

14 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 posted today. He has Downs at 60th: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2023-nfl-draft-class.

Exactly. Way too low to go at 27. It would be a ridiculous reach. And I trust DJ way more than Peter King. King’s throwing darts. He’s terrible at these mocks.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

 

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I think there’s zero chance of the Bills tagging Davis. The projected WR franchise tag in 2024 is $24M. Transition is $21.3M. That would be insane. His market value would probably be around 4/$50M. You could sign him to that contract, guarantee the first two seasons and get him for two years for the price of the FT. And the cap hits would be structured much better.

 

Also what team would be stupid enough to trade for Davis on a 1 year $24M contract? Insanity. 

 

 

agreed. The only way that is remote possibility is if Gabe Davis has a massive season. Like the season many of us were thinking he was capable of going into this past season. But if he does that, then the bills will probably just sign him long-term and keep him.

[Solomon Grundy]

If Beane takes Josh Downs at 27, I'm gonna petition to bring back Doug Whaley on draft day

[hondo in seattle]

46 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Regardless of how good he is or where he lands, that move would make less than zero sense for the Bills with the QB they have, the offense they run with and the RB personnel they already have in place (Cook is perfect for this offense, and Harris can get needed yards). It would be amongst the worst drafting strategies in Bills history, and there have been some bad ones especially the ones outside of Beane and Polian. 

 

I don't see RB as an overwhelming need.  I like our RB room well enough.   Harris can run powerfully inside but get outside too.  Cook is a quick outside guy who can catch.  And Hines was woefully underutilized as a pass-catcher last year.  In space, he's dynamic.  

 

But to say drafting Bijan makes "zero sense," I think, is an exaggeration.  The Bills want a better running game - he gives us that.  But the Bills are a passing team - Bijan can line up as a receiver and perform well there.  When the Bills huddled up with Bijan, defenses wouldn't know if he'd be lining up as an RB or WR.  Bijan's versatility would be useful in the Bills offense.  

 

King has Bijan going in the top ten.  Maybe.   But if he falls to 27, I have to admit that I'd be tempted if I was the GM.  It would depend on who else is available - maybe another player I like as much but fills a bigger need.  

[KOKBILLS]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Released this morning on the polarizing NFL blog, ProFootballTalk.

 

King's first round consists of:

 

• 5 QBs
• 1 Trade with Tenessee moving up to #3 (Arizona trades down to #11) to take Ohio State QB CJ Stroud
• 5 Edge players
• 1 DT (Jalen Carter of course)
• 4 CBs
• 2 RBs (Bijan Robinson is taken before the Bills pick)
• 4 OTs (including Skoronski, all taken before the Bills pick)
• 3 TEs
• 1 Safety
• 4 WRs (JSN is the first taken by PIT at #17)
• 1 Guard (O'Cyrus Torrence to KC at #31)
• The Bills taking Josh Downs WR North Carolina at #27 (after JSN, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison and with Jalin Hyatt and Quentin Johnston still available)

 

It's not behind a paywall:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/24/fmia-peter-king-mock-draft-bryce-young-panthers/

 

so read 'em and weep!

 

 

 

Not a fan of Downs at #27...Not even a little bit.

[Airseven]

I’m polarized!