Peter King/FMIA/PFT 1st Round Mock Draft

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Rousseau and Edmunds both probably lived up to their draft status as rookies. Neither ripped up the league but both had very good rookie years.

 

 

 

I didn't say anything about draft status.

 

Tre White played at a pro bowl level as a rookie.   He was great.  That might even have been his best season.   He hit the ground running and didn't stop that season.

 

 That happens occasionally with a rookie but we don't expect that.

 

Quinn was implying that fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away.   In reality,  I don't think we do.

 

We definitely grade them on a curve.   You definitely did.  

 

I am a huge Rousseau fan but a 4 sack season like his rookie year would be terrible in 2023.  

 

An argument could be made that Edmunds best season was as a rookie and had 3 subsequent down seasons before rebounding in a contract year.   But even so it wasn't a spectacular,  pro bowl kinda' start.   And those kind of seasons aren't that unusual for MLB's........see the next MLB picked,  Shaq Leonard,  who was first team All Pro as a rookie.    Edmunds was notably poor in run defense and missed a very high % of tackles as a rookie.    He's never developed into the player the fans or organization hoped.

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, T master said:

All of these guys seem to forget the Bills have Shakir that last draft every one was saying how big of a steel this guy was & his position was slot receiver then with the pick up of Harte how many more slot guys do we need shoot they let Hodgins get away & that's where he made his hay in college .

 

Given all of the acquisitions on offense this off season & the losses on defense i hope they grab one of the stud LBers for our first pick I'm going on record with Sanders as my first rounder for this year .

 

 

Shakir can play outside or slot. 

 

I'm with Campbell and Sanders just where I am with Downs. I really like them, but not without a trade back.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I just can't excited about a slot only WR in the 1st round. It's an easy role to fill. The Chiefs got JuJu Smith-Schuster for basically $4 million. We got Beasley for $7.5 million AAV in his prime, and he was easily the best slot only WR in the league at his best. I wouldn't take Beasley even in his prime for a 1st round pick. He played a valuable role but not THAT valuable. That's the ceiling of what Downs could give us. No way I'm happy with that pick.

 

 

Agreed #27 is a bit high.

 

But Smith-Schuster isn't always a slot. He's versatile and generally runs a lot inside and out. 40% slot last year according to this:

 

https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-how-will-the-patriots-utilize-new-wr-juju-smith-schuster-in-the-offense#:~:text=Although 40 percent of his,the Pats also run regularly.

 

But I think people under-estimate how very valuable a really good slot guy can be to Allen. Beasley for a while there was an absolute third down machine for 1st downs. Having a guy who can get open on those plays really quick is huge for continuing drives.

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I didn't say anything about draft status.

 

Tre White played at a pro bowl level as a rookie.   He was great.  That might even have been his best season.   He hit the ground running and didn't stop that season.

 

 That happens occasionally with a rookie but we don't expect that.

 

Quinn was implying that fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away.   In reality,  I don't think we do.

 

We definitely grade them on a curve.   You definitely did.  

 

I am a huge Rousseau fan but a 4 sack season like his rookie year would be terrible in 2023.  

 

An argument could be made that Edmunds best season was as a rookie and had 3 subsequent down seasons before rebounding in a contract year.   But even so it wasn't a spectacular,  pro bowl kinda' start.   And those kind of seasons aren't that unusual for MLB's........see the next MLB picked,  Shaq Leonard,  who was first team All Pro as a rookie.    Edmunds was notably poor in run defense and missed a very high % of tackles as a rookie.    He's never developed into the player the fans or organization hoped.

 

 

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster.

 

Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed.

 

If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner.

 

"Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though.

 

Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

[T master]

19 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Shakir, while I like him...is not a guarantee to take a step forward.
I love the Harty signing, but his injury history is a caution flag.
Sherfield could really compete for WR3...
 

for me, I want the top 4 to look like this...

Diggs

______   Hopkins / Other Accomplished NFL WR via trade 

Davis
______  Rookie  (JSN/Addison/Flowers/Hyatt/Mingo) 

This would create a ton of competition and put us on the high end of offensive weaponry 

It's on the outer realms of reality....but certainly would get Bills Mafia very excited for the season 

 

 

But it could work out to be 

 

1) Diggs 

2) Sherfield - If utilized right in this scheme 

3) Shakir/Harte - slot 

4) Gabe 

Plus - Knox - Harris - Cook - Hines - Morris - Gilliam and the occasional Tommy Doyle appearance as a receiver/ TE & the new O linemen McGovern was used in many ways on offense Dorcey could get very creative with this line up .

 

Then if they can land a late round or UDFA - WR or TE after the draft or get Washington in the draft given the WR this season not being 1 very big & 2 no elite talent at the position i would rather they get Sanders that has a very high upside & versatility in the D in the first round & grab a WR later .

 

But that's just the fan in me i'm no expert for sure !!! 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster.

 

Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed.

 

If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner.

 

"Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though.

 

Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

 

 

His salary is just a function of timing........all 4 of those guys were picked in the same draft so they just hit their second contract signing time..........and two of them were picked after him.

 

All of them have been All Pro except Edmunds.

 

So yes, he fell short of expectations.   

 

Tre White and Shaq Leonard were their best selves as rookies.........so that happens too........they've never been better.   Some rookie actually are great and don't have a lot of room for improvement but I don't think fans expect that at all.    We are accustomed to works in progress.........we know the mantra about the biggest improvement period being the offseason between year 1 and 2, etc.. etc..   

 

Edmunds best year was quite possibly his first as well, but it's all relative because he never played close to the level of the aforementioned players.   He struggled against the run and missed by far a career high % of tackles as a rookie.........but play making and tangible pass defense trump those aspects.  

 

He made more plays....a career high in INT, his only 2 forced fumbles of his career and his most QB hits along with a career high in tackles.    He looked like a big play LB in the making and instead became the opposite.   And teams hadn't yet figured out that he lacked a nose for the ball in pass coverage so they didn't throw directly at him in coverage and register the outrageously high passer ratings like they did in 2020-2021. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 4/24/2023 at 8:12 AM, newcam2012 said:

I agree. Davis will likely get a nice contract offer from another team. Of course, a lot will depend on this season's play. 

 

I'd rather let Davis walk and draft a cheaper WR on a rookie contract. Davis is definetly replaceable. 

 

 

newcam, even if he has the exact same season this year that he had last year somebody is going to offer him no less...no less than 10 million per, for 3-5 years.  However, likely even more.

 

I agree with you completely.  No way. Time to move on.

 

 

[BigAl2526]

Gag!