Peter King/FMIA/PFT 1st Round Mock Draft

[MrEpsYtown]

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php

 

King is 35th in accuracy

[BarleyNY]

45 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

 

agreed. The only way that is remote possibility is if Gabe Davis has a massive season. Like the season many of us were thinking he was capable of going into this past season. But if he does that, then the bills will probably just sign him long-term and keep him.

 

I agree. It’d be nice if he blew up, but I think we know who he is now. The question will be how the Bills value him versus what he can get in FA next year. With all the other places we are spending I think they wind up letting him walk, but you never know. Put your offer out there and let the player look around. They usually leave (Edmunds) but sometimes they come back (Poyer). 

[chongli]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

It is very possible the Bills will Franchise Tag Gabe and then could find a trading partner...like they did with Peerless Price several years ago. 

 

No chance. If no trade partner is found, the Bills are stuck paying the tag amount.

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Welcome to the draft process. Your first time?

lmao not the slightest. Still amazes me to the day ha ha

[NewEra]

49 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Exactly. Way too low to go at 27. It would be a ridiculous reach. And I trust DJ way more than Peter King. King’s throwing darts. He’s terrible at these mocks.

It’s not so bad if you look at other rankings.  Dane Brugler, who I prefer over anyone in the business, has him 41st overall.  Ahead of several players that are often being mocked in rd 1:  Tippman 43, Uzomah, 44, McDonald 46, Jack Campbell 52, John Michael-Schmitz 59, Dawand Jones 62, Cam Smith 66.  
 

Considering the talent in this draft class, taking downs @ 27 would be a reach….but  nowhere near a ridiculous reach.  I think he’s the 2nd best slot WR in the class (behind a WR that will likely go to 20).  He doesn’t have any question marks about his ability.  The only question mark about where he’ll be drafted is the value of the position he plays, Slot only.  Many don’t view slot only WRs as worthy of 1st rd picks, for good reason.  You can usually find solid slot for 2-7M a year.  He’s going to be a very good player as long as he isn’t drafted to a terrible situation imo.  The kid can get open and catch the ball on the reg.  He’s pretty filthy. 
 

that said-  I don’t think we’d get value in drafting him @ 27-  trading down and drafting him is optimal (if he is in fact their target).  But how far can we go down and still get him.  Tough question to answer but I could see him going in the first few picks of rd 2.

[34-78-83]

42 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I don't see RB as an overwhelming need.  I like our RB room well enough.   Harris can run powerfully inside but get outside too.  Cook is a quick outside guy who can catch.  And Hines was woefully underutilized as a pass-catcher last year.  In space, he's dynamic.  

 

But to say drafting Bijan makes "zero sense," I think, is an exaggeration.  The Bills want a better running game - he gives us that.  But the Bills are a passing team - Bijan can line up as a receiver and perform well there.  When the Bills huddled up with Bijan, defenses wouldn't know if he'd be lining up as an RB or WR.  Bijan's versatility would be useful in the Bills offense.  

 

King has Bijan going in the top ten.  Maybe.   But if he falls to 27, I have to admit that I'd be tempted if I was the GM.  It would depend on who else is available - maybe another player I like as much but fills a bigger need.  

Reasonable reply even though I still wouldn't touch it. If that were the case though, they better then trade away Cook for some value for it to make any sense at all.

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I like Downs better than Zay and Addison.  Runs routes like Stevie Johnson and has excellent hands.  BSF than Beasley too

Lets break that down and see.

 

Josh Downs NC 5'9 171 LBS  Speed 4.48

Receiving grade 86.5

Drop Rate 3.1%

Grade vs man 92.1

Ranked 8th in slot catches

Ranked 12th in Slot Yards

Contested catches 13 27th   **** 5' freaking 9 inches and he is ranked 27th in contested catches? I had to go double check this number to believe it. wow. 

 

Zay Flowers BC 5'9 182 LBS Speed 4.42

Receiving grade 76.1

Drop Rate 10.3% ***Yikes

Grade vs man 59.4 

Ranked 184th in slot catches **** despite size this shows he likes to play outside. 

Ranked 7 184th in Slot Yards ****Shows he is not a slot guy

Contested catches 149th *** bad number for a dude that plays outside a lot. 

 

This just does not make sense to me how Flowers is ranked so high other than the hard numbers on yards received.

 

Jordan Addison 5'11 173 LBS Speed 4.49  *** Did not put slot numbers cause its clear he is an outside WR and not slot

Receiving grade 82.4

Drop Rate 3.3

Grade vs man 76.2

Contested catches 443rd  **** I mean jesus... 443'rd for an outside WR this is really bad

 

 

I wanted to do this to be blinded by the stats and pay attention to the grades.  Flowers and Addison have to many red flags for me... so I 1000% agree with your statement. I think in many other Drafts Flowers and Addison would be round late round 2 guys and not late round 1.  Doing this footwork has actually changed my mind on Flowers. 

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Downs does have elite hands. He catches everything. Caught 94 passes on 116 targets last year. 

 

In our offense that's near the top of the league in drops, there's something to be said for that. 

 

I do prefer an inside/ outside threat though if we're looking for a new #2 receiver. 

 

 

 

The same was said about Zay Jones.. who also was from a Carolina school.. not the same, but yeah.  Elite anything is nothing until it’s in the NFL and shows that it’s a great asset along with all the other intangibles being at very least, REALLY good.  Not saying he won’t be good or anything if that nature, but 1 skill does not define an NFL player.

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

25 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Lets break that down and see.

 

Josh Downs NC 5'9 171 LBS  Speed 4.48

Receiving grade 86.5

Drop Rate 3.1%

Grade vs man 92.1

Ranked 8th in slot catches

Ranked 12th in Slot Yards

Contested catches 13 27th   **** 5' freaking 9 inches and he is ranked 27th in contested catches? I had to go double check this number to believe it. wow. 

 

Zay Flowers BC 5'9 182 LBS Speed 4.42

Receiving grade 76.1

Drop Rate 10.3% ***Yikes

Grade vs man 59.4 

Ranked 184th in slot catches **** despite size this shows he likes to play outside. 

Ranked 7 184th in Slot Yards ****Shows he is not a slot guy

Contested catches 149th *** bad number for a dude that plays outside a lot. 

 

This just does not make sense to me how Flowers is ranked so high other than the hard numbers on yards received.

 

Jordan Addison 5'11 173 LBS Speed 4.49  *** Did not put slot numbers cause its clear he is an outside WR and not slot

Receiving grade 82.4

Drop Rate 3.3

Grade vs man 76.2

Contested catches 443rd  **** I mean jesus... 443'rd for an outside WR this is really bad

 

 

I wanted to do this to be blinded by the stats and pay attention to the grades.  Flowers and Addison have to many red flags for me... so I 1000% agree with your statement. I think in many other Drafts Flowers and Addison would be round late round 2 guys and not late round 1.  Doing this footwork has actually changed my mind on Flowers. 

Nice breakdown.  I watch a ton of ACC (sad I know) and I honestly didn’t know how short Downs was because he plays way bigger than his size. He’s a gamerand plays with fire. 
The only thing I’d say about him compared to Zay is that Downs has played with 2 very good QBs and a solid running game in a wide open offense.
Zay not so much. But give me Downs over anyone not names JSN at WR.

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I don't see RB as an overwhelming need.  I like our RB room well enough.   Harris can run powerfully inside but get outside too.  Cook is a quick outside guy who can catch.  And Hines was woefully underutilized as a pass-catcher last year.  In space, he's dynamic.  

 

But to say drafting Bijan makes "zero sense," I think, is an exaggeration.  The Bills want a better running game - he gives us that.  But the Bills are a passing team - Bijan can line up as a receiver and perform well there.  When the Bills huddled up with Bijan, defenses wouldn't know if he'd be lining up as an RB or WR.  Bijan's versatility would be useful in the Bills offense.  

 

King has Bijan going in the top ten.  Maybe.   But if he falls to 27, I have to admit that I'd be tempted if I was the GM.  It would depend on who else is available - maybe another player I like as much but fills a bigger need.  

If Bijan falls to 27, I’d probably take him.  The whole idea behind BPA is building a team full of talent at ALL positions.  Let’s ask this, would the team be better off with an Adrian Peterson type running the ball or the 5th rated OT in a weak class?  I think it’s obvious most would say, give me the HOF player at a position I don’t “need”, vs a borderline starter.  That’s why BPA is the way you build a team.  Not taking a guy because you have a pretty good one ( or in this case, you have no idea what you have), is the path to failure.    Not that it’s a perfect case, but what if the Cardinals passed on Mighty Mouse because they had Right Josh.  They would have set the team back years.   I’m not going to argue for Murray, I think he’s super overrated, but the point remains.

[PrimeTime101]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

The same was said about Zay Jones.. who also was from a Carolina school.. not the same, but yeah.  Elite anything is nothing until it’s in the NFL and shows that it’s a great asset along with all the other intangibles being at very least, REALLY good.  Not saying he won’t be good or anything if that nature, but 1 skill does not define an NFL player.

take a look at my pff breakdown above. Red Flags Tell me he does NOT have elite hands.

Drop Rate is a big one...

Grade vs man is the other.

 

A WR with good hands for me

A. has to be great at catching the rock

B. Be good and physical at breaking away from defenders, the first 5 yards. Low rating Vs man, Drop Rate, and having a fantastic QB to boot tells me his hands are not as good as scouts say they are. 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

 

You may want to edit this reply... on the other hand that may be a bad idea.

 

😁

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

 

 

[AuntieEm]

3 hours ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I like Downs better than Zay and Addison.  Runs routes like Stevie Johnson and has excellent hands.  BSF than Beasley too

 

   What is BSF?

[Sierra Foothills]

2 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

   What is BSF?

 

I think it's a metric used to analyze rappers.

 

[T master]

All of these guys seem to forget the Bills have Shakir that last draft every one was saying how big of a steel this guy was & his position was slot receiver then with the pick up of Harte how many more slot guys do we need shoot they let Hodgins get away & that's where he made his hay in college .

 

Given all of the acquisitions on offense this off season & the losses on defense i hope they grab one of the stud LBers for our first pick I'm going on record with Sanders as my first rounder for this year .

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

You don’t get it. If the bills have 15 first round grades and other teams take players that they have graded later, then first round graded players fall. It’s very conceivable that there will be a player or players that might be there that are graded as firsts. 

It’s possible but not likely.

 

Straight from the horses mouth:

 

[Warriorspikes51]

10 minutes ago, T master said:

All of these guys seem to forget the Bills have Shakir that last draft every one was saying how big of a steel this guy was & his position was slot receiver then with the pick up of Harte how many more slot guys do we need shoot they let Hodgins get away & that's where he made his hay in college .

 

Given all of the acquisitions on offense this off season & the losses on defense i hope they grab one of the stud LBers for our first pick I'm going on record with Sanders as my first rounder for this year .

 

Shakir, while I like him...is not a guarantee to take a step forward.
I love the Harty signing, but his injury history is a caution flag.
Sherfield could really compete for WR3...
 

for me, I want the top 4 to look like this...

Diggs

______   Hopkins / Other Accomplished NFL WR via trade 

Davis
______  Rookie  (JSN/Addison/Flowers/Hyatt/Mingo) 

This would create a ton of competition and put us on the high end of offensive weaponry 

It's on the outer realms of reality....but certainly would get Bills Mafia very excited for the season 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[AuntieEm]

2 hours ago, chongli said:

 

No chance. If no trade partner is found, the Bills are stuck paying the tag amount.

 

    I believe the poster is saying if Gabe Davis has a monster season they could tag and trade him if they couldn't get a deal done prior to FA.  If he has no improvements he might not even have a big market in FA.  

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s possible but not likely.

 

Straight from the horses mouth:

 

 

 

While the Bills haven't had any 1st round busts in the McBeane regime........the only one of them to play to their reputation and have a big impact as a rookie was Tre White.   So I think we are accustomed to modest rookie season expectations by now.   Aaron Quinn likes to hear himself talk though so it's just a wind-bag being a wind-bag.