Gonzo 2 Rounder (4 Days out)

[gonzo1105]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Did you just say your mock draft is "very" realistic while saying more than 2/3rds is going to be wrong?  Isn't that kind of a contradiction?  No need to get so defensive about something you expect to be mostly wrong about because someone thinks its going to fall different.  Like I said, kudos for the work, I just don't think some of the places you have guys going is realistic.  Just my opinion, nothing more nothing less.  We all just have opinions, like your mock is your opinion, others having a different mock is just an opinion.  And the one universal truth is all these mocks will be wrong anyway.

 

But to your point of giving us a top 3 LB in the 2nd not making any sense...the point was rather than using a first round pick on a BACKUP player at a position we DONT feature (TE), I would rather have the top LB (as to a top 3 one in the 2nd) in the first and take someone else at WR, OL, or even TE in the 2nd.

 

I am not even advocating for a LB in the first, I both want and think it is going to be a WR personally.  I am just saying taking a TE who is going to get maybe 20-30 targets as the 7th or 8th priority in our offense this year with our first round pick is less appealing than drafting someone who will likely have a bigger role in our team this year. 

 

2/3rd will be wrong because one pick that is wrong throws off a whole draft. I bet I have a ton of guys that will go in the first round though just might not be to the right team. Again I gave you a top 3 LB in the 2nd round(Top LBs': Campbell, Simpson, Sanders). None of these players are first round caliber. Drafting one at 27 is a waste. I gave you arguably a top 15 player in this draft at 27 and gave you one of the top 3 LB's at 59 and your doing nothing but moaning and groaning about it. 

 

Fine just for you I'll draft Campbell at 27 and you can have Marvin Mims at 59 just to make you feel good about yourself. Their two worse players than Kincaid and Simpson but that's what you want because they'll be featured more supposedly like Kaair Elam was last year or James Cook or Terell Bernard (oh wait that didnt happen either)

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think you’re making a lot of assumptions. Who on the board is available in this mock that you would take to upgrade the WR core with this pick or on the offensive line? Q Johnson who is a Gabe Davis clone and gives you nothing different? O’Cyrus Torrence who’s a terrible scheme fit. Don’t change it up you wanted a LB, I gave you one at 59 for you only to say that you’d rather take one at 27 when in this mock the first one doesn’t come off the board at 48. 
 

You’d be getting terrible value at 27. I could see the Bills taking a Bergeron at 59. 
 

It’s funny how perception kills fans openness to things. If I gave you Campbell and Bergeron in the first two rounds you’d love it but in reality I would have reached a half a round at 27 to fill need and I’ll be honest I’m not sure the Bills are taking LB at all. 
 

Most of the top TEs were also saddled with bad QB play and to be honest with you, Kincaid isn’t really a TE he’s a big WR like Pitts. The difference is you’re drafting Kincaid at 27 versus Pitts with pick 4. The Bills have a top 3 QB in the NFL for Kincaid to work with vs Pitts who had a dead arm Matt Ryan and now Desmond Ridder. His career is dead until he leaves Atlanta 

 

No disrespect, but you just told @newcam2012he is making a lot of assumptions, but then followed that up with a bunch of assumptions like "Q. Johnson is just a Gabe Davis clone" and "the first LB doesn't come off the board until pick 48".  The Gabe Davis comparison just feels like a lazy assumption given they are not really that similar in how they play nor are they anywhere near the same kind of prospect coming out of college.  

 

More importantly, you realize that this is most likely the last year we have Davis who there is very little chance they pay what he can get in Free Agency next season to keep him right?  Having an opportunity to draft a WR at 27 that has WR1 potential has a lot of value, especially considering the alternative is a 2nd string TE who might only get 20-30 targets at most behind Knox.  

 

And no disrespect, but you can't defend not taking a LB at 27 by saying "I gave you one at 59".  When deciding who to pick at 27 it is not known who will be there at pick 59, so that is a completely irrelevant statement to what decision should be made while actually deciding who the pick should be at 27.

 

You seem a bit defensive about your mock, and you shouldn't be, especially given all mocks are wrong.  But I think the point you are missing from those who have a differing opinion, is that they doubt we are going to prioritize a second TE over some of the other guys you still had on the board in your mock.  Doesn't matter at all who you mocked to us in the 2nd, its about what choice would be best while sitting on the clock at 27.  Personally, I think they would take the WR in Johnston in your mock, but I could also see them taking someone else at OL, LB, or DL there too over a TE.  

 

Not saying a TE is impossible at 27, because if he is the clear cut BPA then I expect Beane would stick to his board and add the talent if he say couldn't trade back.  But based on your mock, Kincaid is not the BPA and nor would I expect Kincaid to be the pick if the board fell this way.

 

 

[gonzo1105]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but you just told @newcam2012he is making a lot of assumptions, but then followed that up with a bunch of assumptions like "Q. Johnson is just a Gabe Davis clone" and "the first LB doesn't come off the board until pick 48".  The Gabe Davis comparison just feels like a lazy assumption given they are not really that similar in how they play nor are they anywhere near the same kind of prospect coming out of college.  

 

More importantly, you realize that this is most likely the last year we have Davis who there is very little chance they pay what he can get in Free Agency next season to keep him right?  Having an opportunity to draft a WR at 27 that has WR1 potential has a lot of value, especially considering the alternative is a 2nd string TE who might only get 20-30 targets at most behind Knox.  

 

And no disrespect, but you can't defend not taking a LB at 27 by saying "I gave you one at 59".  When deciding who to pick at 27 it is not known who will be there at pick 59, so that is a completely irrelevant statement to what decision should be made while actually deciding who the pick should be at 27.

 

You seem a bit defensive about your mock, and you shouldn't be, especially given all mocks are wrong.  But I think the point you are missing from those who have a differing opinion, is that they doubt we are going to prioritize a second TE over some of the other guys you still had on the board in your mock.  Doesn't matter at all who you mocked to us in the 2nd, its about what choice would be best while sitting on the clock at 27.  Personally, I think they would take the WR in Johnston in your mock, but I could also see them taking someone else at OL, LB, or DL there too over a TE.  

 

Not saying a TE is impossible at 27, because if he is the clear cut BPA then I expect Beane would stick to his board and add the talent if he say couldn't trade back.  But based on your mock, Kincaid is not the BPA and nor would I expect Kincaid to be the pick if the board fell this way.

 

 

 

Im defensive of it only in the fact that people can't be open to a different idea than LB/WR at 27. I have readily admitted that I could be wrong a lot. I do realize we can lose Gabe Davis next year and there are more than 2 rounds in a draft.

 

And yes in this scenario, Dalton Kincaid is the Best Player Available even over Quentin Johnson. Could the Bills still pass on him absolutely. I said in the pick info that they would consider a multitude of guys including WR's Quentin Johnson and Jalin Hyatt. How do you know they aren't going to prioritize Kincaid if they took him? A lot of people on this board are aching for a slot receiver to replace Beasley/McKenzie and upgrade there as Allen and the offense seemed to stall a bit because of the position.

 

So I pick a TE(really a big WR) who can line up in the slot and do a multitude of things from the slot including stretch the seams which Allen does best in the vertical passing game and you can't see beyond the fact that he'll be behind Dawson Knox which isn't true at all. Sure we can trot out 10 and 11 personnel again last year and be successful. Their going to be successful no matter who they draft because they have a top QB

 

The difference between me and you is that if the Bills don't take Kincaid and take Johnson/Hyatt/Bresee/Branch etc, you wont hear me getting on this message board lambasting the front office for their terrible pick because I'll get it regardless but if the Bills do take a guy like Kincaid over guys like Johnson/Campbell/ your love children you will be the first one on here telling people how terrible the pick was. 

[newcam2012]

38 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Im defensive of it only in the fact that people can't be open to a different idea than LB/WR at 27. I have readily admitted that I could be wrong a lot. I do realize we can lose Gabe Davis next year and there are more than 2 rounds in a draft.

 

And yes in this scenario, Dalton Kincaid is the Best Player Available even over Quentin Johnson. Could the Bills still pass on him absolutely. I said in the pick info that they would consider a multitude of guys including WR's Quentin Johnson and Jalin Hyatt. How do you know they aren't going to prioritize Kincaid if they took him? A lot of people on this board are aching for a slot receiver to replace Beasley/McKenzie and upgrade there as Allen and the offense seemed to stall a bit because of the position.

 

So I pick a TE(really a big WR) who can line up in the slot and do a multitude of things from the slot including stretch the seams which Allen does best in the vertical passing game and you can't see beyond the fact that he'll be behind Dawson Knox which isn't true at all. Sure we can trot out 10 and 11 personnel again last year and be successful. Their going to be successful no matter who they draft because they have a top QB

 

The difference between me and you is that if the Bills don't take Kincaid and take Johnson/Hyatt/Bresee/Branch etc, you wont hear me getting on this message board lambasting the front office for their terrible pick because I'll get it regardless but if the Bills do take a guy like Kincaid over guys like Johnson/Campbell/ your love children you will be the first one on here telling people how terrible the pick was. 

Kincaid just isn't a smart pick for the Bills. TE is not a priority and the Bills offensive scheme isn't TE orientated. His usage is likely limited and likely moves the needle in a limited fashion. 

 

I'm relatively confident a better player and fit will be available at 27. If not, I'm pretty confident the Bills can trade back or up to get their player. I just don't see Kincaid being on the Bills radar. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by newcam2012

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Kincaid just isn't a smart pick for the Bills. TE is not a priority and the Bills offensive scheme isn't TE orientated. His usage is likely limited and likely moves the needle in a limited fashion. 

 

I'm relatively confident a better player and fit will be available at 27. If not, I'm pretty confident the Bills can trade back or up to get their player. I just don't see Kincaid being on the Bills refer. 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that a trade back is likely if only because the value at WR isn't likely at 27 and they do want to draft one for sure as noted by their 5 top 30 visits with WR's. In this model there are no trades. I think they want to walk away with more than 6 players drafted for sure.  I will also say for the naysayers on TE's they did meet with 3 guys on top 30 visits and another one was suspected as someone mentioned a 4th being a possibility and they are all high round TE's. Musgrave and Washington are going to go in round 2 and Schoonmaker is probably a 3rd round guy. None of the guys they met with are lower than a 3rd round grade which means it seems likely they are going to take a TE fairly high in this draft even if its not round 1. 

[starrymessenger]

If you think Dorsey is capable of working two TE sets as a regular component of his offence and you think Kincaid is the BPA at 27 and the best remaining WR then there are at least reasons for taking him there. Thing is he can't really serve as an in-line blocker. For those favouring a TE early maybe LaPorta would be a better all round selection. He's a weapon for sure and reports I've seen say he's a good blocker. 

[gonzo1105]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

If you think Dorsey is capable of working two TE sets as a regular component of his offence and you think Kincaid is the BPA at 27 and the best remaining WR then there are at least reasons for taking him there. Thing is he can't really serve as an in-line blocker. For those favouring a TE early maybe LaPorta would be a better all round selection. He's a weapon for sure and reports I've seen say he's a good blocker. 

 

LaPorta isn't really a blocker either to be honest. If your looking for all around TE's who can do both your looking at Darnell Washington(arguable), Tucker Kraft, and Luke Schoonmaker at least when it comes to the early guys. There are some other guys who can block later in the draft but have limited upside in the passing game. 

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

The difference between me and you is that if the Bills don't take Kincaid and take Johnson/Hyatt/Bresee/Branch etc, you wont hear me getting on this message board lambasting the front office for their terrible pick because I'll get it regardless but if the Bills do take a guy like Kincaid over guys like Johnson/Campbell/ your love children you will be the first one on here telling people how terrible the pick was. 

 

For the record, I am the last person you should say that to.  Go pull up any thread on any player drafted on draft night and you will not find a single post made by me flipping out telling people the pick was terrible.  If we draft someone I didn't expect (like Bernard last year, Boogie, etc) the first thing I do is try and learn more about the player and look for the optimism that our Front Office might have saw to make the pick.  Not the other way around, so you are way off base here.  

 

Worse yet, I have said I expect us to draft a TE, and we should.  I even said I would be fine if the board fell where the BPA was a TE at 27 and Beane stuck true to his board.  I even said that I am always for taking the talent, and if a TE was the clear BPA I would be fine with it.  

 

Honestly, this is where I exit the convo.  You are just way too defensive to the point you are towing the line of dragging this into the mud for no reason and now just making baseless rants when I all I was doing was politely discussing your mock with you.  If you can't handle open polite open discussion about your mock, maybe don't subject yourself to other opinions by posting a mock draft thread.  

 

All good...GoBills

 

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

LaPorta isn't really a blocker either to be honest. If your looking for all around TE's who can do both your looking at Darnell Washington(arguable), Tucker Kraft, and Luke Schoonmaker at least when it comes to the early guys. There are some other guys who can block later in the draft but have limited upside in the passing game. 

I would have thought Mayer would be considered the best of the traditional TEs. I saw a lot of Washington. He's a phenomenal blocker and a sneaky RZ threat. I'm not sure you can expand his offensive capacity much beyond that. Still like him and he is my second favorite to Kincaid. Kincaid is an offensive threat all over the field, but not a blocker. I guess LaPorta is pretty good at both, but I'd rather go with one of the previously mentioned even though it is an unbalanced skill set. That said, I'm fine with LaPorta in the second.

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

For the record, I am the last person you should say that to.  Go pull up any thread on any player drafted on draft night and you will not find a single post made by me flipping out telling people the pick was terrible.  If we draft someone I didn't expect (like Bernard last year, Boogie, etc) the first thing I do is try and learn more about the player and look for the optimism that our Front Office might have saw to make the pick.  Not the other way around, so you are way off base here.  

 

Worse yet, I have said I expect us to draft a TE, and we should.  I even said I would be fine if the board fell where the BPA was a TE at 27 and Beane stuck true to his board.  I even said that I am always for taking the talent, and if a TE was the clear BPA I would be fine with it.  

 

Honestly, this is where I exit the convo.  You are just way too defensive to the point you are towing the line of dragging this into the mud for no reason and now just making baseless rants when I all I was doing was politely discussing your mock with you.  If you can't handle open polite open discussion about your mock, maybe don't subject yourself to other opinions by posting a mock draft thread.  

 

All good...GoBills

 

 

 

 

 

So I guess my question is to you then is who is better BPA in your opinion than Kincaid at 27 if the draft fell like this. I'm genuinely curious to this question. 

[newcam2012]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I would have thought Mayer would be considered the best of the traditional TEs. I saw a lot of Washington. He's a phenomenal blocker and a sneaky RZ threat. I'm not sure you can expand his offensive capacity much beyond that. Still like him and he is my second favorite to Kincaid. Kincaid is an offensive threat all over the field, but not a blocker. I guess LaPorta is pretty good at both, but I'd rather go with one of the previously mentioned even though it is an unbalanced skill set. That said, I'm fine with LaPorta in the second.

The Bills can definetly roll out Knox and Morris and be fine. Perhaps a late round TE pick. I'm not in favor of an early round TE pick. 

 

The Bills offense is just not TE friendly. They barely utilize Knox effectively in the passing game. I do not think Dorsey and his offense will suddenly be effective in two tight end sets. Nor do I think Kincaid unseats Knox for the starting role. 

 

I'd rather go boom or bust with Johnston than go with a hybrid TE whose likely to see limited playing time in a system that rarely takes advantage of the TE position.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by newcam2012

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills can definetly roll out Knox and Morris and be fine. Perhaps a late round TE pick. I'm not in favor of an early round TE pick. 

Yes, I know. I don't share your views on this matter.

They certainly were not fine last year with Morris on the team. The number of pre-draft meetings with TEs indicates to me the Bills think the status quo is insufficient.

[BillsFanForever19]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Quinton Johnson is a pretty scary pick. It's boom or bust in my eyes. His size is very appealing but his catching ability or lack of is equally concerning. I'd much rather prefer Addison, Flowers or Mims later in the draft. 

 

Most WR Prospects taken outside of the Top 5-10 are considered "Boom or Bust". There were similar concerns with DK Metcalf coming out. All prospects are not finished products and require coaching up coming to the Pro Level.

 

The guys you listed are Slot guys. Maybe Addison can play Outside, but he's pretty undersized when you figure in weight. We have that position covered. As we do our Starting TE. What we need is a true Outside WR opposite Diggs and someone who can at least share the 2 with Davis.

 

Johnston is far and away the top Outside WR in a Draft that doesn't have many of those. I think it would be crazy to pass on him in favor of a 2nd TE if he were to fall to us. If Johnston weren't there and if Dorsey was going to incorporate a lot of 12 personnel, I'd be open to Kincaid.

 

But I'm not convinced the team is all of a sudden looking to change the playbook and run 2 TE sets when they've not done that. And the need for a #2 or #2A/B on the Outside is far greater.

[newcam2012]

40 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, I know. I don't share your views on this matter.

They certainly were not fine last year with Morris on the team. The number of pre-draft meetings with TEs indicates to me the Bills think the status quo is insufficient.

The Bills use their TE position as a 3rd and 4th passing options much of the time. Knox gets good redzone looks and that will likely continue. 

 

The Bills offense is built largely on tight ends who can block. Just look at how often Knox is blocking instead if being targeted in the past game. Kincaid just isn't a fit for what the Bills do on offense. 

 

I just don't see how a newly drafted TE moves the needle much in the Bills offense system/scheme. 

 

The Bills desperately need a legit number 2 WR. Sorry Gabe ain't that guy! I'm really thinking that Beane will bring Dhop to Buffalo. That's a game changer move that opens up things for Diggs and Davis. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by newcam2012

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

With Diggs age and Davis in his final year, I think they would for sure take the WR over a TE.  Reality is Davis is likely gone after this season, there is no way they are going to pay him what he will fetch on the open market.  Getting a potential replacement for him certainly seems like a high priority for this front office given the amount of interest they have demonstrated between exploring acquisitions and draft visits.  Meanwhile, TE's most often grossly underperform to draft hype, especially their early years.  And any TE we bring in will be second string to Knox who we just extended and is young himself.  

 

So if one of the top WR's is still on the board at 27, I don't think there is much chance they take a TE over that WR.  Not saying we would never go TE, I mean if the board falls in a way where TE is the clear cut BPA at 27, I don't expect Beane to reach elsewhere and can see him taking the talent.  But I do think he would first try and trade down if that were the case.  

 

 

No argument that they want a WR for the reasons you stated, but I hope that they don’t reach for a prospect there just to fill that need.  WR is now a premium position, but picking a question mark prospect would be a mistake, in my opinion.  I don’t particularly like Johnston and Flowers, Addison, Downs are all so small. And Hyatt would be a big gamble.

 

Of course, all picks are gambles to some extent.

[gonzo1105]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills use their TE position as a 3rd and 4th passing options much of the time. Knox gets good redzone looks and that will likely continue. 

 

The Bills offense is built largely on tight ends who can block. Just look at how often Knox is blocking instead if being targeted in the past game. Kincaid just isn't a fit for what the Bills do on offense. 

 

I just don't see how a newly drafted TE moves the needle much in the Bills offense system/scheme. 

 

The Bills desperately need a legit number 2 WR. Sorry Gabe ain't that guy! I'm really thinking that Beane will bring Dhop to Buffalo. That's a game changer move that opens up things for Diggs and Davis. 

your not getting an immediate # 2 WR from this draft and Knox was blocking so much because Brown and Saffold were so awful and had to have him stay in 

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

No argument that they want a WR for the reasons you stated, but I hope that they don’t reach for a prospect there just to fill that need.  WR is now a premium position, but picking a question mark prospect would be a mistake, in my opinion.  I don’t particularly like Johnston and Flowers, Addison, Downs are all so small. And Hyatt would be a big gamble.

 

Of course, all picks are gambles to some extent.

 

Im on the same page, in no way do I want them to reach.  Which is why I won't be upset regardless of how it plays out, I trust Beane won't reach and will take who they feel is the BPA when they pick at 27 or if they trade up or down from 27.  

[newcam2012]

23 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

your not getting an immediate # 2 WR from this draft and Knox was blocking so much because Brown and Saffold were so awful and had to have him stay in 

That's why it's imperative that the Bills acquire Dhop. 

 

I suspect Knox will be still blocking often. Brown is a down right scary starting tackle. Hopefully, he can improve and stay healthy. 

 

Saffold was a terrible pick up by Beane. That whiff really hurt the Bills last year. This year's oline pick ups look much more promising. 

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im on the same page, in no way do I want them to reach.  Which is why I won't be upset regardless of how it plays out, I trust Beane won't reach and will take who they feel is the BPA when they pick at 27 or if they trade up or down from 27.  

You have much more faith in Beane than I do. 

[BillsNutHawaii]

Best, most realistic, thoughtful mock draft I have seen anywhere  on the internet - and I read them all!!  Thanks for all your efforts here and sharing with the rest of the TBD team!! 

[purple haze]

22 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Since when have the Bills used a TE as a legitimate weapon? I like the youngster but I have my doubts Dorsey will call plays and run an offense that fully takes advantage of his skills. 

Very nice analysis. Agree with your take. I'd be pretty bummed if the pick a TE at 27. For me it's oline or WR depending on whole is available. 

Bingo!

I think Darnell Washington might be a TE they would take.   He is massive, can block and has good athleticism and growing receiving skills.  Beane might look at him as a two in one.