Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president in 2024?

[Big Blitz]

Correct.  
 

 

 

[SCBills]

The level of suppression/censorship from media & tech towards RFK is absolutely insane. 
 

YouTube, especially, is out of control. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

15 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That's all correct. And you've basically confirmed my take: we don't know anything specific (for example, recent cancer, heart disease, obesity, etc.) that would lead us to believe that he's less likely to survive to 86 than most men his age. So there's your 58% chance. Which means a 42% chance that Kamala Harris becomes President if Biden is reelected. (Maybe that should be your campaign messaging, Republicans? But it's a messaging that gets easier to pull off if your candidate is in his/her 40s, 50s, or even 60s as opposed to his late 70s ...)

 

Of course, he may be unusually fit, at least physically, for a man his age such that his life expectancy would be greater than the average. But again, we just don't know. So if an insurance company were selling him an annuity, they'd be betting on him living 8.5 more years, on average.

I understand your point, but this is not a future value of money conversation, this is a mortality question on a specific individual.  That’s a different discussion than if Biden were tossing a cool million or two  into the Emerging Bribery Scandal Fund at Vanguard.  Ignoring signs of physical and cognitive decline, and all that comes with it, is not something an insurance company would do, though they might well take the cash on the annuity.  When considering it from the perspective of “us”, we’ll be divided into the “Everything is fine, he looks amazing!” and “He’s disintegrating before our eyes”.
 

Both angles are guesstimates, both have limitations, but I will say this—if an 80 year old R was shuffling around the WH, making up words,  speaking of friends and family long gone, routinely confused names of people long gone, facts related to tragic occurrences, who’s gait and balance caused stumbling and falls, the perspective from the other side of the aisle would be exactly, precisely that which R voters hold with respect to Biden.  I think we both know that, and we both know why. 
 

Now, on the campaign,  I think the suggestion that hi-lighting the likelihood of a Harris presidency is somewhat irrelevant.  People that cast a vote for Biden-Harris knew who she was, knew what she represented, and Biden was a tired old man in 2020.   That was part of the analysis. 
 

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

6 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Ignoring signs of physical and cognitive decline, and all that comes with it, is not something an insurance company would do, though they might well take the cash on the annuity.  When considering it from the perspective of “us”, we’ll be divided into the “Everything is fine, he looks amazing!” and “He’s disintegrating before our eyes”.

And of course people are free to vote based on their assessment of Biden's mental and physical state.

My comment here was limited to the actual actuarial odds of Biden surviving until the end of a second term. And on that, it's basically 60/40 (survive/not survive).

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

And of course people are free to vote based on their assessment of Biden's mental and physical state.

My comment here was limited to the actual actuarial odds of Biden surviving until the end of a second term. And on that, it's basically 60/40 (survive/not survive).

I’m sorry for being a pain, but not the actuarial odds of “Biden” surviving, the actuarial odds of a “male” of a certain age, all other things being equal.  There is a difference, and it’s important distinction.  

[The Frankish Reich]

16 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I’m sorry for being a pain, but not the actuarial odds of “Biden” surviving, the actuarial odds of a “male” of a certain age, all other things being equal.  There is a difference, and it’s important distinction.  

Yes, there is. But other than the medical records the White House releases (which may, of course, be somewhat selective) we have no reason to believe that Biden has any unusual condition that would cause us to deviate from the average. In other words, the over/under is 8.5 more years of life.

Now if you know any insider information like "my cousin's wife is a nurse at Walter Reed, and she saw a report showing that Biden is being treated for chronic kidney disease," feel free to bet the under. Anecdotal stuff like "Biden sure seems to be slowing down physically and mentally" wouldn't change my assessment of the odds. It's akin to "Hillary stumbled badly trying to get into that limo, she probably has serious brain damage and won't be able to serve out her term." Or "why does Trump need to hold a water glass with two hands."

[Pokebball]

26 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I’m sorry for being a pain, but not the actuarial odds of “Biden” surviving, the actuarial odds of a “male” of a certain age, all other things being equal.  There is a difference, and it’s important distinction.  

and the final chapter in each of our lives is normally not a good one. The final couple of years is normally filled with significant decline, required assistance, etc. A person isn't fit to serve/work in their final chapter. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

47 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Yes, there is. But other than the medical records the White House releases (which may, of course, be somewhat selective) we have no reason to believe that Biden has any unusual condition that would cause us to deviate from the average. In other words, the over/under is 8.5 more years of life.

Now if you know any insider information like "my cousin's wife is a nurse at Walter Reed, and she saw a report showing that Biden is being treated for chronic kidney disease," feel free to bet the under. Anecdotal stuff like "Biden sure seems to be slowing down physically and mentally" wouldn't change my assessment of the odds. It's akin to "Hillary stumbled badly trying to get into that limo, she probably has serious brain damage and won't be able to serve out her term." Or "why does Trump need to hold a water glass with two hands."

I respect your absolute commitment to the point, but that doesn’t change the reality, Frank. 
 

A voter voting considers every piece of data they choose to consume.  The data they choose to consume or disregard typically is relevant only insofar as the subject’s agenda and value offered.  
 

I don’t have any insider information, Frank, and the fact is the average voter that places absolute faith in a  White House report does so at his/her own peril.  
 

I can tell you Biden is declining at a predictably consistent pace.  Not long ago you mentioned that you felt Biden has been “broken” by the loss of his son In Iraq, so much so he has reimagined the facts of that family trashed.  You didn’t need an in-depth medical report from a team of experts to see that, yet you considered what you saw and know to be true.  

 

Anyway, time to move on. 
 

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

and the final chapter in each of our lives is normally not a good one. The final couple of years is normally filled with significant decline, required assistance, etc. A person isn't fit to serve/work in their final chapter. 

Absolutely a consideration.  Biden’s loved ones likely follow a pattern of readjusting his perspective, reminding him of important issues at times, allowing him to push forward with others in spite of inaccuracies for others.   
 

 

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

5 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I can tell you Biden is declining at a predictably consistent pace.  

I have spent a lot of time around 80-somethings in recent years (that has something to do with my own stage in life), and I can tell you that what I see with Biden is consistent with what I've seen with every single other one. 

But o.k., let's say his decline is unusually rapid.

Many people (me included) thought Reagan was losing it at a very fast pace in his run-up to the 1980 presidential election. And then it became clear to many more people that he was losing it by the time of his second term, say in 1987. He was 76 in 1987. And while we don't know for sure (no one can) whether that was the early stages of Alzheimer's, given that he was later diagnosed with it I think it's a fair to assume that.

Q. So how long did early-stage Alzheimer's Reagan live after beginning to show signs of that disease (being charitable, from 1987 on)? 

A. 17 years.

 

My point: even if Biden's doddering behavior means the worst possible diagnosis - Alzheimer's - that's extraordinarily unlikely to kill him in the next few years.

So that over/under of 8.5 years based on the actuarial tables? No reason to second guess it here.

Now could it be that like Reagan he is (or soon will become) unable to handle the job of President without effectively turning it over to an armada of advisors? Sure. Reagan did that, and the impression of those advisors that he was checked out probably contributed to some really bad ideas like Iran-Contra. Did the Republic survive? Yep. 

My second point: when dealing with a cognitively challenged president, or one who exhibits extremely poor judgement, the best thing is to have a stable team of level-headed advisors in place. In fact, a stable team of level-headed advisors is often preferable to a high-functioning know-it-all who refuses to take advice from persons with expertise in a particular area.

Edited June 28, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

21 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I have spent a lot of time around 80-somethings in recent years (that has something to do with my own stage in life), and I can tell you that what I see with Biden is consistent with what I've seen with every single other one. 

But o.k., let's say his decline is unusually rapid.

Many people (me included) thought Reagan was losing it at a very fast pace in his run-up to the 1980 presidential election. And then it became clear to many more people that he was losing it by the time of his second term, say in 1987. He was 76 in 1987. And while we don't know for sure (no one can) whether that was the early stages of Alzheimer's, given that he was later diagnosed with it I think it's a fair to assume that.

Q. So how long did early-stage Alzheimer's Reagan live after beginning to show signs of that disease (being charitable, from 1987 on)? 

A. 17 years.

 

My point: even if Biden's doddering behavior means the worst possible diagnosis - Alzheimer's - that's extraordinarily unlikely to kill him in the next few years.

So that over/under of 8.5 years based on the actuarial tables? No reason to second guess it here.

Now could it be that like Reagan he is (or soon will become) unable to handle the job of President without effectively turning it over to an armada of advisors? Sure. Reagan did that, and the impression of those advisors that he was checked out probably contributed to some really bad ideas like Iran-Contra. Did the Republic survive? Yep. 

My second point: when dealing with a cognitively challenged president, or one who exhibits extremely poor judgement, the best thing is to have a stable team of level-headed advisors in place. In fact, a stable team of level-headed advisors is often preferable to a high-functioning know-it-all who refuses to take advice from persons with expertise in a particular area.

I suppose it’s possible that Biden’s cognitive failings started much, much earlier as you’ve speculated with Reagan.  It would explain his removal of top secret/classified documents from his time in the Senate and as VP, that he lost track of the documents and they ended up near the extra paper towels and toilet paper in the First Garage. Maybe he just got turned around. Maybe he’s been dealing with this decline for 20 years already.  
 

As for the Republic surviving, sure, yes.  I said as much during Trump as well.  We push forward.  
 

 

 

 

[Doc]

Joke’s brain is going. Why would you want to re-elect someone who will only get worse? 

[JaCrispy]

21 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Correct.  
 

 

 

I hope he runs as an independent when the Democrat Party rigs the primary again…

Edited June 28, 2023 by JaCrispy

[B-Man]

 

 

Fear is obvious.

 

Not for Kennedy's strength, but due to Biden's weakness.

 

 

 

Jake Tapper says he would not host a town hall with liar RFK Jr.

 

https://twitchy.com/brettt/2023/06/28/jake-tapper-says-he-would-not-host-a-town-hall-with-liar-rfk-jr-n2384919

 

.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

[BillsFanNC]

@BillStime @Tiberius @redtail hawk @ChiGoose

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

22 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I suppose it’s possible that Biden’s cognitive failings started much, much earlier as you’ve speculated with Reagan.  It would explain his removal of top secret/classified documents from his time in the Senate and as VP, that he lost track of the documents and they ended up near the extra paper towels and toilet paper in the First Garage. Maybe he just got turned around. Maybe he’s been dealing with this decline for 20 years already.  
 

As for the Republic surviving, sure, yes.  I said as much during Trump as well.  We push forward.  
 

 

 

 

The debate on the President's heath could easily be settled if the administration would provide clarity and publicly release the evaluation of his current physical and mental condition.  What's the readout from the doctors?  While there is no requirement to do so its not uncommon. 

That would eliminate the need for all the fill-in-the-blanks back and forth speculation.

Rather I'm left to conclude he's in physical and mental decline and as typical the speed and severity is accelerating like it always does with the elderly quickly nearing the end.  My over/under is 6 months

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

42 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The debate on the President's heath could easily be settled if the administration would provide clarity and publicly release the evaluation of his current physical and mental condition.  What's the readout from the doctors?  While there is no requirement to do so its not uncommon. 

That would eliminate the need for all the fill-in-the-blanks back and forth speculation.

Rather I'm left to conclude he's in physical and mental decline and as typical the speed and severity is accelerating like it always does with the elderly quickly nearing the end.  My over/under is 6 months

 

I don’t know about that, and would think that’s probably inaccurate.    Biden has access to the best caregivers in the world with reason to keep him as healthy as possible.    
 

I only entered the chat because of the +\- 8 years.  We can see with our eyes what’s going on, and it is not promising.  

[BillsFanNC]

14 hours ago, BillsFanNC said:

@BillStime @Tiberius @redtail hawk @ChiGoose

 

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

The white face of black face of white supremacy.