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Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round?


WickedGame

Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round?   

171 members have voted

  1. 1. Will the Bills make a draft selection in the first round?

    • Yes, of course.
      87
    • No, they’ll trade back to round 2.
      80
    • No, they’ll trade their 1st round pick (and maybe more) for a current NFL player.
      4


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I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

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They either will or they won't. It's 50-50.

 

I'll say this: if they make the pick they will say that it was the last guy they had a round 1 grade on no matter if they did or didn't (Elam). If they don't pick they will talk about how their 2nd round guy had a round 1 grade anyhow (Ford, Epenesa). Funny how that works!

Edited by KDIGGZ
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Dream scenario is trading down with AZ for Hopkins. Imagine coming out of the first two rounds with Hopkins, OT Harrison and a starting MLB.

 

I cant imagine who AZ would want to trade up for though.

 

I think it's going to be very difficult to trade down this draft. Best chance is if Hooker is there at the end of Rd 1 and a team want to move back to the end of the first to get him. Seattle and Detroit come to mind. 

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6 minutes ago, Process said:

Dream scenario is trading down with AZ for Hopkins. Imagine coming out of the first two rounds with Hopkins, OT Harrison and a starting MLB.

 

I cant imagine who AZ would want to trade up for though.

 

I think it's going to be very difficult to trade down this draft. Best chance is if Hooker is there at the end of Rd 1 and a team want to move back to the end of the first to get him. Seattle and Detroit come to mind. 

Hopkins is a pipedream and not necessary.  

 

But agree about Hooker, or someone who might be very high on a TE that slips.  That's the most likely way a team is interested in moving up (without us wanting to draft same position/player).

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7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I was just thinking about this again yesterday when I read Bucky Brooks' article on NFL.com.  He has 5 guys graded as ALL PROS and 10 guys graded as PRO BOWLERS. 

 

So what would we get at 27?  An average starter?   Probably not a 1st round talent.  So why waste a 1st round pick on a 2nd round talent?  I'm not entirely convinced but I think Beane may indeed trade down.

 

www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-overachievers-in-this-class

 

 

I do hear you, but honestly, every year there are usually somewhere between roughly 15 and 20 first round grades. At 27 we're rarely going to get a guy to fall to us, unless our grading greatly differs from most on someone, which could easily happen, really.

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I think a trade back would largely depend on how far back they’d have to go and what they’re getting in return. 

Would it be worth getting pick # 50 (for example) and an extra 3rd-round pick? 


Is there a team with multiple twos who want to move into round 1?  Would Beane accept a couple of middle twos for pick # 27?


Would a veteran player and another pick do it?  I don’t see that happening since a team would usually only part with a decent player for cap reasons. The Bills are already being creative with their limited cap space. 
 

In my opinion, it could go any way. Beane could just as likely send one of our players away to relieve cap and move closer to a prospect with a first  round grade. 
 

If there’s any movement by Beane and the Bills, I don’t think it will happen until they’re well into round 1 and there’s a clearer picture of what options will be available at # 27. 

 

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26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I do hear you, but honestly, every year there are usually somewhere between roughly 15 and 20 first round grades. At 27 we're rarely going to get a guy to fall to us, unless our grading greatly differs from most on someone, which could easily happen, really.

 

I had 18 and 4 borderlines last year. 18 ands 5 borderlines in 2021. I have 11 and 5 borderlines this year. It is definitely less likely a guy falls to #27 this year than other years. But equally You are going to get 4, maybe 5 QBs go earlyish... only one of whom is in my 11+5 so there is a chance that pushes some talent down. 

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I'd say there's around an 80 to 90% chance we pick in the first round.  Either a first round graded player by the Bills falls to them, they can't find a trade partner to move down into the second round with, they move up like they did last year for Elam who was their last first round grade, or they don't want to risk the highest guy on their board (with a 2nd round grade) not falling to them in the second round.

 

There may be a qb needy team after Hooker to get ahead of the Saints at #29.  That's pry where the Bills could find a trade down partner.  Not likely but possible.

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This draft just doesn’t have the high end talent of others. I don’t think that the Bills pick at 27. Beane LOVES to go up to get his guy. There is a lot of talk about going down but I think it’s just as likely that they go up.
 

Ideally, I’d like to see them do something like 27 & 2024 4th for Hopkins and 34. 

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