Gunner's 2023 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[dave mcbride]

@GunnerBill, did you see this bit in Peter King's column today regarding Stroud?

 

'I can never tell anymore if the cacophony of voices around a dominant story is real, or if the cacophony constitutes an echo chamber. So many people “cover” the draft, and there is so much information boomeranging around the internet and in NFL offices where info is king. Twice over the weekend, I asked coaches who said they “heard” Stroud was dropping: Without naming names, could you be specific? Because sometimes they might be hearing from coaches or personnel people employed by the teams involved in scouting the quarterbacks, which is valuable. Sometimes they might be hearing from people who are not involved in the decision-making. Or from people who saw Bob McGinn of Tyler Dunne’s “Go Long” Substack report that Stroud bombed the S2 cognitive test increasingly trusted by teams as a key part of their scouting regimen. The S2 test measures how fast a player can process information and make decisions; Bryce Young, McGinn reported, got the best score of quarterbacks at 98 on a 100-point scale. Stroud, per McGinn, got an 18.

 

I don’t think anything should be ignored. The S2 test is a key piece of a 500-piece jigsaw puzzle. But what about the corner pieces of the puzzle for Stroud, the ones that really matter? Nov. 20, 2021, Columbus: 32-of-35 passing, 432 yards, six TDs in a win over Michigan State. Oct. 29, 2022, State College: 26-of-33 passing for 354 yards in a win over Penn State. And his last, and biggest, game as a collegian, the college football playoff semifinal four months ago against mighty Georgia: 23-of-34, 348 yards, four TDs, zero picks, 41 points engineered.

...

One thing re: the sudden knocks about Stroud, which absolutely should not be ignored but absolutely should be put into perspective – This from one exec of a team, a winning team, that respects the S2 athlete-processing test that, per McGinn, had Stroud grade very low: “All of a sudden the S2 test is the Bible. Why? It’s a smart test. But how did the guy play? How was his tape?”'

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/24/fmia-peter-king-mock-draft-bryce-young-panthers/

 

My own take: I have no dog in this fight, but I will say college football ain't the pros. College football defenses run far, far less complex schemes than pro defenses.

Edited April 24, 2023 by dave mcbride

[CA OC Bills Fan]

Thank you for the evaluation, Gunner.

 

I've been wanting to post something for a bit but wasn't sure where to put this LAMP. You gave me the perfect opportunity!

 

First, I don't follow college at all. I start to listen to the draft talk but rarely watch videos of the prospects. That being said, of course I've heard about the top QBs and typically base my opinions mostly just be hearing what the talking heads and other fans like you say.

 

So, hearing mostly about Bryce Young and CJ Stroud over the last several months, I wasn't so sure what to think. Then, when my son was home from San Diego State U. a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned to him (who follows even less than I do) about the two QBs and he told me that Bryce Young was local, went to Mater Dei in Orange County CA. I reminded him that we went to the semi-finals in late 2019 and saw Mater Dei crush Mission Viejo (his school). He said Bryce Young was the QB we saw. I remember posting about going to that game and what I saw in Bryce. 

 

This is what I posted on December 30, 2019. I made the post primarily because “Super Cade” was the honorary captain for the Mission Viejo team but then added what I saw in this HS QB, Bryce Young:

“By the way, at that game, Bryce Young, the QB for Mater Dei was amazing. He threw for over 500 yards before they pulled him, I think in the 3rd but may have been early 4th. The first play of the game was a 53 yard strike, second play was called back due to illegal receiver downfield but was a completion to what would have been a touchdown. He had 7 touchdown passes and many amazing throws. He's going to Alabama next year and I can't wait to see how he does with SEC competition.” Of course, since I don't follow college football, I completely forgot about him until the recent talk and even then didn't put 2 and 2 together until my son and I started talking about the draft.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/221957-new-espn-story-on-“super-cade”-also-featuring-josh-allen-darnold-watson-mahomes/?do=findComment&comment=6293641

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

I think young could be good but I see his ceiling as kyler Murray. 

 

Murray because of his height has the highest rate of batted balls in the league 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I think young could be good but I see his ceiling as kyler Murray. 

 

Murray because of his height has the highest rate of batted balls in the league 

 

True. But batted balls were a bit of an issue for Kyler in college too whereas they weren't for Bryce. But then maybe that is partly about quality of their respective olines too. 

 

Definitely a fair concern.

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Also **** or get off the pot is a common phrase in America.  Even Canadians use it but they say “Poop quick or your behind will freeze on the outhouse”.

 

A similar phrase here in the states is "Fish or cut bait" which basically means the same thing... "don't just stand there, do something."

 

21 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I think young could be good but I see his ceiling as kyler Murray. 

 

Murray because of his height has the highest rate of batted balls in the league 

 

As I recall, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Bryce Young all had low numbers of batted balls in college.

 

That hasn't translated well into the NFL for Murray.

 

Also, avoidance of batted balls can mean that the QB is giving up on plays that taller QBs can make meaning that a low number isn't a wholly positive metric.

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

As I recall, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Bryce Young all had low numbers of batted balls in college.

 

That hasn't translated well into the NFL for Murray.

 

Also, avoidance of batted balls can mean that the QB is giving up on plays that taller QBs can make meaning that a low number isn't a wholly positive metric.

 

 

Kyler had 5 in 14 games his final year. Not awful but indicative of some sort of issue.

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I think if you were a GM for one of the teams drafting top 5 you would take him because you need a QB.  FO's in the league are going to disagree with you Thursday. 

I think if I was a GM… And I was about the hitch my wagon to him first or second overall

 

I don’t think I would be the GM of the team in five years

 

Sure he will get drafted early… And as I said I don’t think he will pan out

 

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think if I was a GM… And I was about the hitch my wagon to him first or second overall

 

I don’t think I would be the GM of the team in five years

 

Sure he will get drafted early… And as I said I don’t think he will pan out

 

 

Again get all this, but the reality is if you are a GM you don't get 3, 4, 5 years to wait on your perfefct QB and know you will be in a position to draft him. You might get lucky and land needing a QB when a good class hits. You might not. But at some point you gotta take your shot. 

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again get all this, but the reality is if you are a GM you don't get 3, 4, 5 years to wait on your perfefct QB and know you will be in a position to draft him. You might get lucky and land needing a QB when a good class hits. You might not. But at some point you gotta take your shot. 

If I was a GM picking top five… I would rather trade for Aaron Rodgers for a year or two

 

Or go get bridge quarterback for a season

 

The bills got mediocrity out of Tyrod Taylor and a playoff… A GM can build a good team in three seasons Which can mask QB play 

 

I’m not drafting a scrub like Zach Wilson second overall

 

I would much rather take Hendon hooker in the 4th

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

If I was a GM picking top five… I would rather trade for Aaron Rodgers for a year or two

 

Or go get bridge quarterback for a season

 

The bills got mediocrity out of Tyrod Taylor and a playoff… A GM can build a good team in three seasons Which can mask QB play 

 

I’m not drafting a scrub like Zach Wilson second overall

 

I would much rather take Hendon hooker in the 4th

 

I'd love to take Hooker in the 4th. Don't think he lasts that long. 

 

The problem with bridge QBs is they have to be a bridge to somewhere. Carolina and Indy have built bridges that ended with their GMs being in "draft me a QB or you are fired" territory as this class emerges. Denver bridged their way right past Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I am only ever in favour of a bridge as part of a specific plan. The Tyrod paycut bridge the Bills built in 2017 should be the model for a bridge.

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd love to take Hooker in the 4th. Don't think he lasts that long. 

 

The problem with bridge QBs is they have to be a bridge to somewhere. Carolina and Indy have built bridges that ended with their GMs being in "draft me a QB or you are fired" territory as this class emerges. Denver bridged their way right past Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I am only ever in favour of a bridge as part of a specific plan. The Tyrod paycut bridge the Bills built in 2017 should be the model for a bridge.

That’s why the GM needs to have a legitimate plan

 

The Chiefs went 35 years without starting a quarterback they took in the first round… before mahomes 

 

They always figured out The quarterback game pretty well without investing a top pick in the 2000s…. Until they saw the guy… Trent green and Matt cassell to Alex smith all had some success there… all had at least a 10 win season 

 

Now I’m not saying it’s smart to wait 25 years to draft a quarterback in the 1st…. But I wouldn’t draft one just to draft one

Edited April 24, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s why the GM needs to have a legitimate plan

 

The Chiefs went 35 years without starting a quarterback they took in the first round… before mahomes 

 

They always figured out The quarterback game pretty well without investing a top pick in the 2000s…. Until they saw the guy… Trent green and Matt cassell to Alex smith all had some success there… all had at least a 10 win season 

 

Now I’m not saying it’s smart to wait 25 years to draft a quarterback in the 1st…. But I wouldn’t draft one just to draft one

 

Yea but 3 GMs lost their jobs in the process (if we accept Veach was really im charge before the 2017 draft, which he was) that is part of the point. 

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but 3 GMs lost their jobs in the process (if we accept Veach was really im charge before the 2017 draft, which he was) that is part of the point. 

I fully understand that

 

But each was able to actually have a bridge quarterback lead them to the playoffs… They just couldn’t complete the next step

 

I fully get what you’re saying you need to take a shot

I just think Bryce Young would get me fired

[The Frankish Reich]

7 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Spoiler alert: Luck was the most overhyped player in the history of football, especially from the mental aspect of the game.  He had physical talent for sure and seemed like an awesome dude and teammate but he got jitters in big spots and made dumb plays.  This was proven on several occasions and his early departure showed he just didn’t have the will to win a truly great QB needs.  That’s not a knock on him as a person.  The entire league was fooled.  The Colts actually ditched the greatest player in franchise history for him and eventually it put them into a still swirling tailspin.  Yet somehow to this day there is a large cult like group that will claim he was a success.

 

Well that’s certainly some revisionist history. Or 20/20 hindsight. Or whatever you want to call it. 
With or Without You, Andrew Luck Edition:

- Colts 2011 (Peyton out all year, Suck for Luck): 2-14

- Colts 2012 (Luck arrives): 11-5

- Colts 2017 (Luck out all year): 4-12

- Colts 2018 (Luck comeback): 10-6

- Colts 2019 (Luck shock retirement):

7-9

So value of Luck over a replacement level QB is something like +6 wins per season? 
We are spoiled in Buffalo now.
Depth of the off-season deep thoughts coming…
Q. What would we have done with Luck at QB in 2012 instead of Fitz?

A. We would have made the playoffs. Probably 10-6. Probably switching places with the Colts, who did make the playoffs with Luck. Chan Gailey would’ve stayed. No Doug Marrone. No EJ Manuel. No Rex Ryan. No Tyrod Taylor.

And then Luck would’ve retired on us in 2019, we would’ve tanked,

and we would have taken Joe Burrow with the first pick in 2020. And made the Super Bowl in 2021. 🤪
 

 

[4merper4mer]

43 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well that’s certainly some revisionist history. Or 20/20 hindsight. Or whatever you want to call it. 
With or Without You, Andrew Luck Edition:

- Colts 2011 (Peyton out all year, Suck for Luck): 2-14

- Colts 2012 (Luck arrives): 11-5

- Colts 2017 (Luck out all year): 4-12

- Colts 2018 (Luck comeback): 10-6

- Colts 2019 (Luck shock retirement):

7-9

So value of Luck over a replacement level QB is something like +6 wins per season? 
We are spoiled in Buffalo now.
Depth of the off-season deep thoughts coming…
Q. What would we have done with Luck at QB in 2012 instead of Fitz?

A. We would have made the playoffs. Probably 10-6. Probably switching places with the Colts, who did make the playoffs with Luck. Chan Gailey would’ve stayed. No Doug Marrone. No EJ Manuel. No Rex Ryan. No Tyrod Taylor.

And then Luck would’ve retired on us in 2019, we would’ve tanked,

and we would have taken Joe Burrow with the first pick in 2020. And made the Super Bowl in 2021. 🤪
 

 

Lol

 

You left out:

 

Colts pre-Luck records before they were losing on purpose

The undeniable fact that his record was on the back of the worst division in the history of football

In 2017 the Colts winning pct was better without a luck than with him.

Manning going to Denver and getting to two Super Bowls……a game that the Colts never sniffed with or since Luck

Many games choked away with brain farts

 

If you joined the Luck cult don’t let his career of insignificance and underachievement again DT expectation sway you.  Cults were meant to be lifelong commitments.

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol

 

You left out:

 

Colts pre-Luck records before they were losing on purpose

The undeniable fact that his record was on the back of the worst division in the history of football

In 2017 the Colts winning pct was better without a luck than with him.

Manning going to Denver and getting to two Super Bowls……a game that the Colts never sniffed with or since Luck

Many games choked away with brain farts

 

If you joined the Luck cult don’t let his career of insignificance and underachievement again DT expectation sway you.  Cults were meant to be lifelong commitments.

 

Fascinating that I first read about your well-established anti-Luck perspective in THIS thread and that I've now seen it for the first time in real time in THIS thread. I have no quarrel with your Luck trutherism; just happy to witness it in action.

[Coach Tuesday]

On 4/24/2023 at 1:44 PM, Buffalo716 said:

I think if I was a GM… And I was about the hitch my wagon to him first or second overall

 

I don’t think I would be the GM of the team in five years

 

Sure he will get drafted early… And as I said I don’t think he will pan out

 

 

Bryce Young is going to be a fantastic case study.  He is too slight to play the position as it's traditionally understood.  But he's also maybe the fastest processor the position has ever seen.  He's legitimately a savant of some kind - off the charts smarts, anticipation and intangibles.  I too am glad I'm not the GM having to pick him, but as a fan I am excited to root for the kid.

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Bryce Young is going to be a fantastic case study.  He is too slight to play the position as it's traditionally understood.  But he's also maybe the fastest processor the position has ever seen.  He's legitimately a savant of some kind - off the charts smarts, anticipation and intangibles.  I too am glad I'm not the GM having to pick him, but as a fan I am excited to root for the kid.

I’m definitely not rooting for him to fail… I don’t root for anybody in my Sport to fail 

 

I know some really good scouts… Who do not care about his size… They have adopted their philosophy on quarterbacks to not care as much about height

 

And I agree he processes the game, so well … I can literally see a right handed Steve Young if he was 6’2… He is the most cerebral quarterback I’ve seen since luck

 

And his arm is good also… 

 

This is why he’s an enigma… Will football Go to a new mold where he can thrive or stay the same ….

 

Until I see the 5 foot10… Skinny first round kid make it… I can’t hitch my wagon

 

But God bless him

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Bryce Young is going to be a fantastic case study.  He is too slight to play the position as it's traditionally understood.  But he's also maybe the fastest processor the position has ever seen.  He's legitimately a savant of some kind - off the charts smarts, anticipation and intangibles.  I too am glad I'm not the GM having to pick him, but as a fan I am excited to root for the kid.

 

Yep. As I said above, if any kid can succeed at QB in the NFL at 5'10 it is Bryce Young. If he can't I think it would put anyone off ever trying again with an early pick.

[Buffalo716]

On 4/24/2023 at 9:59 AM, dave mcbride said:

@GunnerBill, did you see this bit in Peter King's column today regarding Stroud?

 

'I can never tell anymore if the cacophony of voices around a dominant story is real, or if the cacophony constitutes an echo chamber. So many people “cover” the draft, and there is so much information boomeranging around the internet and in NFL offices where info is king. Twice over the weekend, I asked coaches who said they “heard” Stroud was dropping: Without naming names, could you be specific? Because sometimes they might be hearing from coaches or personnel people employed by the teams involved in scouting the quarterbacks, which is valuable. Sometimes they might be hearing from people who are not involved in the decision-making. Or from people who saw Bob McGinn of Tyler Dunne’s “Go Long” Substack report that Stroud bombed the S2 cognitive test increasingly trusted by teams as a key part of their scouting regimen. The S2 test measures how fast a player can process information and make decisions; Bryce Young, McGinn reported, got the best score of quarterbacks at 98 on a 100-point scale. Stroud, per McGinn, got an 18.

 

I don’t think anything should be ignored. The S2 test is a key piece of a 500-piece jigsaw puzzle. But what about the corner pieces of the puzzle for Stroud, the ones that really matter? Nov. 20, 2021, Columbus: 32-of-35 passing, 432 yards, six TDs in a win over Michigan State. Oct. 29, 2022, State College: 26-of-33 passing for 354 yards in a win over Penn State. And his last, and biggest, game as a collegian, the college football playoff semifinal four months ago against mighty Georgia: 23-of-34, 348 yards, four TDs, zero picks, 41 points engineered.

...

One thing re: the sudden knocks about Stroud, which absolutely should not be ignored but absolutely should be put into perspective – This from one exec of a team, a winning team, that respects the S2 athlete-processing test that, per McGinn, had Stroud grade very low: “All of a sudden the S2 test is the Bible. Why? It’s a smart test. But how did the guy play? How was his tape?”'

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/24/fmia-peter-king-mock-draft-bryce-young-panthers/

 

My own take: I have no dog in this fight, but I will say college football ain't the pros. College football defenses run far, far less complex schemes than pro defenses.

Stroud won’t be a QB1

 

Though everything about him says he has it… Somethings off