Gunner's 2023 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

To add to what Gunner Bills said, Brandon Beane was quoted in today's Buffalo News article that the team ranks by round:

 

"The Bills assign grades by round, but that doesn’t mean they have 32 first-round players.

“A first-round guy is somebody, in an ideal world, you want to be a starter (early),” Beane said. “A second-round guy is somebody who is maybe not starting on Day 1, but hopefully becomes a starter.”

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/inside-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-process-meetings-mock-drafts-more-meetings-culminate-over-three-days/article_144a314c-e040-11ed-90c0-2bbd0a95d5aa.html

 

 

Beane the general manager Might assign a round to the grade of a player 

 

But most scouts are on a number based system now… 4.0-9.0

 

And you can get a general round based on the grade and position

 

And I would agree that there’s definitely not 32 guys with real first round grades … 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. He is that. It's the ceiling that is the question. He struggles out of structure and I just wonder if there is enough gamer there. But he will be the best of these as a rookie IMO. 

If he was willing to use his athleticism more… I think his ceiling would be raised

 

Problem is he’s never really wanted to use it which might cap his ceiling 

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. That is how teams do it from people I have spoken to. So my system 8.0 or above is true generational (none of those here). 7.0 or above is 1st round. 6.0 or above is 2nd round. 5.0 or above is third and so on.... 

 

You don't have to use the word round if that adds confusion for me it helps simplify it. 

 

9.0- generational

8.5- perennial all pro

8.0- all pro

7.5 Perennial pro bowl

7.0 pro bowl

6.5 (QB1 potential)

6.0 developmental 

5.5 high end backup starter potential 

5.0 backup 

4.5 QB3

4.0 Practice squad 

 

And then you have all of the Mishmash between them… 6.9 is boarderline pro bowl 

This is basically how I broke it down

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If he was willing to use his athleticism more… I think his ceiling would be raised

 

Problem is he’s never really wanted to use it which might cap his ceiling 

 

Yea he used in a bit in the playoff game. He looks naturally awkward running (which is odd given his athletic profile) but I agree if he could channel the athleticism into better performance when the play breaks down it would raise the ceiling.

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

9.0- generational

8.5- perennial all pro

8.0- all pro

7.5 Perennial pro bowl

7.0 pro bowl

6.5 (QB1 potential)

6.0 developmental 

5.5 high end backup starter potential 

5.0 backup 

4.5 QB3

4.0 Practice squad 

 

And then you have all of the Mishmash between them… 6.9 is boarderline pro bowl 

This is basically how I broke it down

 

 

 

 

I broke down my grading in another thread recently. I need a higher standard from non premium position guys.... so for example a long term starter at a premium position is a 1st rounder but to be a 1st rounder at a non-premium position I want perennial all pro type.

[Buffalo716]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he used in a bit in the playoff game. He looks naturally awkward running (which is odd given his athletic profile) but I agree if he could channel the athleticism into better performance when the play breaks down it would raise the ceiling.

 

 

I broke down my grading in another thread recently. I need a higher standard from non premium position guys.... so for example a long term starter at a premium position is a 1st rounder but to be a 1st rounder at a non-premium position I want perennial all pro type.

Yea I still grade non QBs on that scale but obviously 6.5 isn’t QB1 lol for a guard

 

but 6.5 would be day 1 starter … which would not be a round 1 grade for a guard for me … top 60 grade

 

If I’m taking a guard round one he’s gotta be a 7.0

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Mr. WEO]

Great work!

 

I’ve stood next to Young .  He’s certainly under 200 lbs. looks like a HS kid

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Great work!

 

I’ve stood next to Young .  He’s certainly under 200 lbs. looks like a HS kid

That’s why I can’t give him a grade

 

Because his film and attributes are a boarderline 7.0

 

But The NFL is a grown man’s game… And I just can’t grade him correctly with that that diminutive size

 

I could not take him in the top 10

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s why I can’t give him a grade

 

Because his film and attributes are a boarderline 7.0

 

But The NFL is a grown man’s game… And I just can’t grade him correctly with that that diminutive size

 

I could not take him in the top 10

He’ll go 1 or 2

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

He’ll go 1 or 2

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

We have that expression in American English. We don’t have “put another shrimp on the barbey,” which may have been what you were thinking of.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We have that expression in American English. We don’t have “put another shrimp on the barbey,” which may have been what you were thinking of.

 

Haha. That one is not ours!

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

Yea I saw luck live his Fr and SO year and he was mentally above every QB I’ve ever seen at that age 

 

and he was athletic 

 

Bryce is mentally so good… he knows where to go … where to look safety’s off … his arm is live … he can run …. If he was 6’2 he would be a right handed Steve young 

 

now the comp is tough because … I do Value nfl size… like he doesn’t need 6’4… but he’s the smallest QB I’ve seen besides flutie who was not a top pick

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Haha. That one is not ours!

 

But you have “Unlimited Salad and Breadsticks”, right?   

[1st&ten]

Great review Gunner---thanks for your work. Will you be doing any other positions before the draft ?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 1st&ten said:

Great review Gunner---thanks for your work. Will you be doing any other positions before the draft ?

 

Not written up in this depth I am afraid (just time constraints) but my composite draft thread will be out Wednesday, which includes a breakdown of my top 100 and my top 5 rankings at every position. 

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

 

I think if you were a GM for one of the teams drafting top 5 you would take him because you need a QB.  FO's in the league are going to disagree with you Thursday. 

[4merper4mer]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

Spoiler alert: Luck was the most overhyped player in the history of football, especially from the mental aspect of the game.  He had physical talent for sure and seemed like an awesome dude and teammate but he got jitters in big spots and made dumb plays.  This was proven on several occasions and his early departure showed he just didn’t have the will to win a truly great QB needs.  That’s not a knock on him as a person.  The entire league was fooled.  The Colts actually ditched the greatest player in franchise history for him and eventually it put them into a still swirling tailspin.  Yet somehow to this day there is a large cult like group that will claim he was a success.

 

Also **** or get off the pot is a common phrase in America.  Even Canadians use it but they say “Poop quick or your behind will freeze on the outhouse”.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Spoiler alert: Luck was the most overhyped player in the history of football, especially from the mental aspect of the game.  He had physical talent for sure and seemed like an awesome dude and teammate but he got jitters in big spots and made dumb plays.  This was proven on several occasions and his early departure showed he just didn’t have the will to win a truly great QB needs.  That’s not a knock on him as a person.  The entire league was fooled.  The Colts actually ditched the greatest player in franchise history for him and eventually it put them into a still swirling tailspin.  Yet somehow to this day there is a large cult like group that will claim he was a success.

 

Also **** or get off the pot is a common phrase in America.  Even Canadians use it but they say “Poop quick or your behind will freeze on the outhouse”.

 

I am not arguing the toss on Luck. I was simply trying to come up with a QB who might have been considered as mentally prepared coming out as Young is. I couldn't think of anyone in the time I have been doing it (which takes you back to '14), and definitely nobody in 2013... so Luck was my guess. That was all my point was. Your opinion on Andrew Luck is well known. 

[4merper4mer]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not arguing the toss on Luck. I was simply trying to come up with a QB who might have been considered as mentally prepared coming out as Young is. I couldn't think of anyone in the time I have been doing it (which takes you back to '14), and definitely nobody in 2013... so Luck was my guess. That was all my point was. Your opinion on Andrew Luck is well known……and has been proven correct.

I took the liberty of adding a little at the end of your quote.

 

The point is that there is really no way to be certain….all you can do is your best.  Even when some things appear to be beyond doubt, like the mental aspects of Young’s game, you don’t know until you get there.  Davis Webb is widely seen as a future guru and likely had much of this mental capacity in college but clearly didn’t have everything else required.