The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Not really. Big part of getting it right was being lucky.  But sometimes one gets lucky. 

Cmon Chaos revel in the our victory lol. We’re a small select group that was on this train well before the pick last night. Puff that Chaos chest out lol

[CorkScrewHill]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills.

You nailed it .. well done. I looked at so many mocks .. and you were the only person that I saw that projected Kincaid!

[Green Lightning]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Nice work and well reasoned.

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

You nailed it .. well done. I looked at so many mocks .. and you were the only person that I saw that projected Kincaid!

I think if you lumped the TEs and WRs into a category called "pass catchers" he sort of jumps off the page as the best help for the Bills.  Two weeks before the draft, I would not have thought he had a chance to fall to the Bills, but about a week before the draft, he started sliding in a lot of the better internet draft algorithms. This seemed to be based on medical problem rumors. So I thought there was a chance he would slide. 

[BobbyC81]

On 4/23/2023 at 4:26 AM, newcam2012 said:

I'm being a little facetious here but I wouldn't mind every pick to be offensive. 

 

The game has dramatically changed and offense wins playoff games and super bowls not defense. 

 

The vaunted Philly offense was shredded by the Chiefs. The 49er defense couldn't get it done. 

 

Give Allen protection and more weapons. That's the absolute best chance for the Bills to win in the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run. 

The Bills have made many “offensive “ picks over the years.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Well kudos for nailing that one

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Bbb is this you?

[Don Otreply]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Kudos to you Chaos, you where spot on.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

I read that the Cowboys received calls from the Chiefs and the Raiders for pick 26 so it’s logical to think they were also calling the Bills 

Every team likely receives calls every 5 minutes IMO. 

[StHustle]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

and the bunched panties award goes to our very own beta :

 

I changed my disagree to a Lombardi. 

So hear me out...It wasn't that I disagreed with your whole post. I disagrees with Washington. I felt no way we'd stand pat and take him in the first. I didn't think Kincaid or Flowers had a chance to reach us so I disagreed with even putting them on the list.

 

End of the day you were right. Good job 🏆

[filthymcnasty08]

NAILED it!  Impressive.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

and the bunched panties award goes to our very own beta :

Lol, no it’s more I have never seen someone take a victory lap after making a list of people for one pick and one person on the list ended up happening. 
 

But I gave you kudos for having Kincaid as your top choice.  Like I said, I didn’t think it was realistic he we would be there.  But for that I was wrong, never saw him getting past Chargers or Cowboys.  Although not sure I was totally wrong about that, Cowboys seemed pretty dejected about our pick and pretty sure he was their guy.  
 

I did correctly predict the trade to 25 though specifically to get ahead of Cowboys 2 weeks ago.  Stated the Cowboys were a problem for us as there was a good chance who we are targeting g could also be their top target as both teams could go after a WR or TE depending how the board fell.  Albeit I figured it would more likely be for Addison or JSN if they got that close.  

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Yantha]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

 

I'm eating crow.  Can I change my reaction to "Agree"?  LOL

Nice call.

[QCity]

Some great takes in this thread 😂

[AmishRifle]

@Chaos great job.  I know you attributed some of this to luck but that’s what happens when preparation meets opportunity!!

[T master]

On 4/22/2023 at 3:31 PM, Allen2Diggs said:

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27.

 

#2 TE is a need, but OL and LB should be addressed first. There is a ton of depth at TE in this draft, so we should get the best OT while there are some left and wait until the 3rd for a guy like Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker.

 

I have to agree the way the players fell I thought that filling the ILB position & given the fact that the 2nd best ILB of the draft was still there & has a huge upside that would have been a target to keep the D relevant going forward for the next 5 years .

 

Schoonmaker fell to where the Bills could have had him & they could have kept their 4th round pick & from anything i've read he is a more well rounded TE not a WR that player the TE position . 

 

But i being a fan just don't get a lot of the picks that the Bills pull off but i guess that's just me . Given who was available at our pick i thought they could have made a better one & not given up another pick by doing so .

Edited April 29, 2023 by T master

[CapeBreton]

Well done Professor @Chaos 
 

Did you place any bets on the Bills picking TE on first round? It was paying 35-1!

[Ga boy]

Udaman Chaos!  Now tell me what # he will wear.

[Turbo44]

On 4/28/2023 at 8:15 AM, Chaos said:

I think if you lumped the TEs and WRs into a category called "pass catchers" he sort of jumps off the page as the best help for the Bills.  Two weeks before the draft, I would not have thought he had a chance to fall to the Bills, but about a week before the draft, he started sliding in a lot of the better internet draft algorithms. This seemed to be based on medical problem rumors. So I thought there was a chance he would slide. 

Yeah great analysis - you nailed it as we got the best receiver in the draft, wr or te. I wonder if they had him rated ahead of all the wr’s

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Nice job !!