The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Well done Chaos. I like how you focused on the greatest need for the Bills, increased red zone efficiency. I just that it would be Darnell Washington and that he would fit that specific need better.
 

Does this also mean McDemott will never win a Super Bowl with the Bills?
 

I’m thinking yes given Chaos’ previous predictions regarding Super Bowl winning head coaches and franchise QB’s.

[RyanC883]

nice job!!

[BuffaloBob]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

this aged well. 

If you don’t say yourself!!  😆🫡

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/22/2023 at 2:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

 

You deserve your moment.  Take a bow.

[Beck Water]

On 4/22/2023 at 3:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

 

Congratulations, take a bow!

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

this aged well. 

 

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Well, I projected Kincaid as the Bills first pick.  And Kincaid was the Bills first pick.  

 

Kudos for listing Kincaid first, you definitely had that part right that he would be the BPA on Beanes board if he was there.  And I don't think there was much doubt Kincaid would be BPA at 27, but I think most (myself included) never believed Kincaid would reach us with teams ahead of us like Detroit, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, and Cowboys that could have all easily gone TE.  

 

However, Beane said none of the other guys on your list were in consideration and he was trading back if Kincaid was gone and that Kincaid was the only one left with a first round grade.  So for me, its just kinda weird to take a victory lap on someone being chosen off a list that mostly had wrong players on it.  But I will give you the kudos for at least having Kincaid listed first, which was accurate.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

However, Beane said none of the other guys on your list were in consideration and he was trading back if Kincaid was gone and that Kincaid was the only one left with a first round grade.  So for me, its just kinda weird to take a victory lap on someone being chosen off a list that mostly had wrong players on it.  But I will give you the kudos for at least having Kincaid listed first, which was accurate.  

 

That's called GM speak. I'd never want my GM to actually tell people what he was going to do. 

 

Also, if he doesn't find a trade partner, he would have to either draft a player at #27 or get the very short end of the stick on a trade back. So, chances are he still would have been stuck with the decision to choose a player at #27 in which case it could have been one that Chaos pinpointed. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That's called GM speak. I'd never want my GM to actually tell people what he was going to do. 

 

Also, if he doesn't find a trade partner, he would have to either draft a player at #27 or get the very short end of the stick on a trade back. So, chances are he still would have been stuck with the decision to choose a player at #27 in which case it could have been one that Chaos pinpointed. 

 

No he said he had already had a trade in place to trade down if Kincaid was gone.  That was the point, and no reason to say that if not true.  And it was clear Kincaid was the last player with a first round grade on the board by anyones measure, which Beane said was true for his board as well.  

[Pirate Angel]

This is almost like a Simpsons episode

[SoMAn]

Good call.

I was in complete agreement. 
My thought was that the Bills first 2 picks will be TE and DT, not necessarily in that order. 
Feel free to thumb your nose at all the posters who replied with ‘eye roll’, ‘laughing’, and ‘dislike’ emojis. 
 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

On 4/22/2023 at 3:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

You should play the lottery today. Good call!

[eball]

Well done @Chaos!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Good call!  You looked at it logically and didn't let biases influence you.

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:25 PM, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Nice Job Chaos! Who do you project as a 2 nd round pick based on the players still available?

[teef]

Nice.  Nice. 

[Sharky7337]

There's about 15 people who need to eat some major crow on this one!

[BarleyNY]

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Kudos for listing Kincaid first, you definitely had that part right that he would be the BPA on Beanes board if he was there.  And I don't think there was much doubt Kincaid would be BPA at 27, but I think most (myself included) never believed Kincaid would reach us with teams ahead of us like Detroit, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, and Cowboys that could have all easily gone TE.  

 

However, Beane said none of the other guys on your list were in consideration and he was trading back if Kincaid was gone and that Kincaid was the only one left with a first round grade.  So for me, its just kinda weird to take a victory lap on someone being chosen off a list that mostly had wrong players on it.  But I will give you the kudos for at least having Kincaid listed first, which was accurate.  

and the bunched panties award goes to our very own beta :

[gonzo1105]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That's called GM speak. I'd never want my GM to actually tell people what he was going to do. 

 

Also, if he doesn't find a trade partner, he would have to either draft a player at #27 or get the very short end of the stick on a trade back. So, chances are he still would have been stuck with the decision to choose a player at #27 in which case it could have been one that Chaos pinpointed. 

I read that the Cowboys received calls from the Chiefs and the Raiders for pick 26 so it’s logical to think they were also calling the Bills 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

There's about 15 people who need to eat some major crow on this one!

Not really. Big part of getting it right was being lucky.  But sometimes one gets lucky. 

4 minutes ago, Happy Days Lois & Clark said:

Nice Job Chaos! Who do you project as a 2 nd round pick based on the players still available?

That will be harder.  But I hope to have time between work and the draft to put a post up with that guess. But I am tempted to stay 1 for 1.  😃