The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, LEBills said:

We will find out soon. I hope but am doubtful they will go offense early and often this year

 

It's basically now or never in terms of them going offense heavy in the draft this year. Their tract record is basically defense and when they do go offense it is freaking RB. Feel like Beane knows the heat is on him to get some help on offense. He knows he hasn't exactly hit on his defensive draft picks to put it mildly and that taking RB's on day two has also not helped.  

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

@Chaos

 

I’d be happy with any of them as they all play on O.

 

That said, why did you omit addison from the list?   

My estimate is he will be gone. If he is not gone I would make him tied with Mayer on the list. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

17 hours ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

Tilt your head to the side. Much less disgusting experience. 

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

Torrence or Avila, along with McGovern will greatly improve the Bills line.  I am lately pretty stuck on the idea that redzone performance improvement is the primary thing the Bills need on offense, because I think the Bills already have shown to be the dominant offense between the 20's.   Torrence or Avila would help improve Red Zone performance.  The Bills really don't need "field stretchers" or "chain movers".  We are already punt fewer than any team in the NFL.  The Bills do have room for improvment in the redzone, and will benefit from better protection of Allen.  Olinemen at any position should help with both fo those things. 

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's basically now or never in terms of them going offense heavy in the draft this year. Their tract record is basically defense and when they do go offense it is freaking RB. Feel like Beane knows the heat is on him to get some help on offense. He knows he hasn't exactly hit on his defensive draft picks to put it mildly and that taking RB's on day two has also not helped.  

I hope so but the main positions on offense for upgrade are WR and RT and I’m not sure the Bills will feel the value is there at 27.

 

Foe defense, the positions are much more in line with the projected value at 27. LB, DT, DE. Plus, McDermott is calling plays now and I feel like he is going to want every position stacked to his liking. And McDermott has a big say in who the Bills draft as we have seen.

 

I hope we go offense for all of the first three rounds and more, but I am doubtful. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

3 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I hope so but the main positions on offense for upgrade are WR and RT and I’m not sure the Bills will feel the value is there at 27.

 

Foe defense, the positions are much more in line with the projected value at 27. LB, DT, DE. Plus, McDermott is calling plays now and I feel like he is going to want every position stacked to his liking. And McDermott has a big say in who the Bills draft as we have seen.

 

I hope we go offense for all of the first three rounds and more, but I am doubtful. 

I believe our first pick will be D as well. 

 

May the odds be ever in your favor.😉

 

https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2023/04/buffalo-bills-first-pick-predictions-odds-for-the-2023-nfl-draft.html

[TheBeaneBandit]

27 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

Not a sexy pick but I'm in if it helps protect Josh. 

15 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Tilt your head to the side. Much less disgusting experience. 

Torrence or Avila, along with McGovern will greatly improve the Bills line.  I am lately pretty stuck on the idea that redzone performance improvement is the primary thing the Bills need on offense, because I think the Bills already have shown to be the dominant offense between the 20's.   Torrence or Avila would help improve Red Zone performance.  The Bills really don't need "field stretchers" or "chain movers".  We are already punt fewer than any team in the NFL.  The Bills do have room for improvment in the redzone, and will benefit from better protection of Allen.  Olinemen at any position should help with both fo those things. 

What about Washington as a extra right tackle/weapon? Drafting him will kind of improve two positions if you will.

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

What about Washington as a extra right tackle/weapon? Drafting him will kind of improve two positions if you will.

I have Washington listed in my OP as one among the choices I expect. My reply on guard was simply a reply to a question regarding that position. I don't think they would take a guard ahead of Washington.  

[NeverOutNick]

39 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

I’d be ecstatic if that was the case…let’s build the O line up with actual good O line prospects from the draft instead of paying for retreads

[MrEpsYtown]

I still think it’s going to be one of the four receivers or defense. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Sure it does. You'd have a deadly two tight end set for 3 to 4 years and then when Knox contract is up that guy would be ready to come into his own and be the main man. Depending on the guy, you also have the ability to flex him all over. Kincaid=young Jimmy Graham.

Josh Allen loves to throw to wide receivers, not tight ends

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

The obvious exception to this being Josh Allen. 😁

Edited April 23, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

 

I think both are decent players. But how do they change the paradigm? Mayer is a good solid all around tight end. We have one of those. He is name Dawson Knox and he is much more athletically talented than Mayer and we already under use him. Knox is a better matchup weapon. Running Mayer out there instead of a slot receiver makes our O less dynamic IMO. Washington does bring something a bit different. He is an excellent blocker. But again he isn't as good as Knox in space or ball in his hand. So you want to spend a 1st on an in line blocking tight end who might have a bit of additonal redzone value (where Knox is already a top 5 contributor among tight ends)? I don't think that is good value. 

 

Don't get me wrong there are teams for whom Mayer in round 1 makes sense (less so Washington for me, but there you are). But the Bills are not one of them. 

 

Kincaid is a different category altogether. He is a genuine bona fide weapon. He doesn't really block. But 12 personnel where Kincaid and Knox are on the field together is a potential matchup nightmare for defenses so long as Dorsey and Allen can work out how to use them.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

might have a bit of additonal redzone value

Other than Red Zone, where are the Bills going to get better production on offense? Real question. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Other than Red Zone, where are the Bills going to get better production on offense? Real question. 

 

So your fewest punt stats is a good one, but it is HEAVILY influenced by the first 8 games. The Bills punted 15 times through their first 8 games last year. Fewer than 2 a game. They punted double that amount through their final 8 (30 times). 

 

That 30 in 8 games number pro-rata for 17 games would have put us at 14th fewest punts. We'd have punted more than the Falcons. So I don't think it is true to say we don't need help between the 20s. I also think a lot of the reliance on Josh's legs to move the chains down the stretch was because other elements of the offense stalled. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So your fewest punt stats is a good one, but it is HEAVILY influenced by the first 8 games. The Bills punted 15 times through their first 8 games last year. Fewer than 2 a game. They punted double that amount through their final 8 (30 times). 

 

That 30 in 8 games number pro-rata for 17 games would have put us at 14th fewest punts. We'd have punted more than the Falcons. So I don't think it is true to say we don't need help between the 20s. I also think a lot of the reliance on Josh's legs to move the chains down the stretch was because other elements of the offense stalled. 

I think the games after game 8 were very skewed by a UCL injury to a key player.  Those are the ones to toss as an aberation. 

[JohnNord]

17 hours ago, RiotAct said:

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is

More like 11:00 PM

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think the games after game 8 were very skewed by a UCL injury to a key player.  Those are the ones to toss as an aberation. 

 

That played a part for sure. But there were drops (Gabe and Isaiah particularly), lack of separation (Shakir) and some predictable play calling that were all factors too. 

[frostbitmic]

If offense is the choice in the first, I'm guessing it'll be Jordan Addison.

 

I still think the first round pick will either be a DE or a LB. With McDermott taking over the defense and wanting to be more aggressive, it's the perfect excuse to draft more D. McDermott had Kuechly running his D in Carolina and had Edmunds here, until now, watch out for Sanders or Campbell in the first.

 

1. Addison WR

2. Campbell LB

3. Wright T

4. Sanders LB

5. Kincaid TE