The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[Chaos]

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Chaos

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27.

 

#2 TE is a need, but OL and LB should be addressed first. There is a ton of depth at TE in this draft, so we should get the best OT while there are some left and wait until the 3rd for a guy like Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker.

[Chaos]

Just now, Allen2Diggs said:

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27

You are free to disagree. It is a partially free country. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Baring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

It they go offense in the first, this is a plausible list. I'd be surprised if Kincaid or Wright are there at 27. Mayer, maybe. I'd rather take Washington, though Mayer is the more complete player right now. Not sure what to make of Flowers -- super skilled, but tiny with midget arms. He probably still goes before the Bills' pick.

[Chaos]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Not sure what to make of Flowers -- super skilled, but tiny with midget arms

Bills don't seem troubled by taking players without prototype measurements.  I am not saying I would pick Flowers.  This is what I think the Bills will do though. 

[NeverOutNick]

11 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I like your premise but it’s flawed because Flowers and Wright would be ahead of both Mayer and Kincaid based on talent and a more glaring need. I do like all 5 of those players though and even if I don’t think Washington is worth a top 30 selection, I would be happy with any of those 5 players being our first pick. 
 

but hopefully Flowers and Wright are off the board if one of the TEs are selected 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NeverOutNick

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Chaos said:

Bills don't seem troubled by taking players without prototype measurements.  I am not saying I would pick Flowers.  This is what I think the Bills will do though. 

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

Flowers is 100% not just a slot receiver. Just because he’s small doesn’t make him pigeon holed to the slot. Kid is special and can play anywhere. Great vertical and inside/out game. Is Tyreek Hill just a slot? Was Antonio Brown? Those dude are the same height as Zay

[Warriorspikes51]

Washington could literally have 10 + TDs as a rookie if used in the Red Zone.

he’d also bring some unpredictability as he can be an extra OT on runs or a real threat in pass game

Edited April 22, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[sonyab1974]

What is the schedule for the draft when they show the Bills?

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, NeverOutNick said:

Flowers is 100% not just a slot receiver. Just because he’s small doesn’t make him pigeon holed to the slot. Kid is special and can play anywhere. Great vertical and inside/out game. Is Tyreek Hill just a slot? Was Antonio Brown? Those dude are the same height as Zay

Guess we'll see. He did play outside in college, but numerous draft profiles question whether he'll be able to do so at the pro level. His small arms give him a smaller catch radius and he's had a problem with drops. I personally would prefer a larger receiver, but there's no doubt he's talented.

[LABILLBACKER]

I absolutely love Darnell Wright and want him as our long term RT.  But if by some miracle JSN, Flowers or Kincaid are there then I'll pray Beane has his scouts on the right page.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

24 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I like your premise but it’s flawed because Flowers and Wright would be ahead of both Mayer and Kincaid based on talent and a more glaring need. I do like all 5 of those players though and even if I don’t think Washington is worth a top 30 selection, I would be happy with any of those 5 players being our first pick. 
 

but hopefully Flowers and Wright are off the board if one of the TEs are selected 

I think Wright and Flowers aren't even first rounders in most years. The three TEs are all legit, although with Washington it is more with the upside.

[Maynard]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I absolutely love Darnell Wright and want him as our long term RT.  But if by some miracle JSN, Flowers or Kincaid are there then I'll pray Beane has his scouts on the right page.  

I think Wright will be long gone. I’ve read Chicago has a real thing for him. 

[GunnerBill]

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him. 

As long as small is just a couple spots and no more than a 4th round pick that’s fine. Still need OL help day 2

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

 

I am not lobbying for Flowers.  But FWIW, Greg Cosell, who has watched a minute of NFL film, profiled Zay Flowers as a WR he saw as being able to play at "all 3 levels" in the NFL.

 

To the OP, I'll point out that the same argument people make against drafting ILB in the first, applies to some extent to TE. 

 

The top 10 WR in the league have $20-$30M/yr AAV contracts.

The top 2 TE in the league have contracts over $15M AAV, Kelce is $14.3M, then it tails off down to $10 Even Engram at $11M

 

By the way of the top 10 salary TE in AAV, only two (Njoku and Engram) were drafted in the 1st round.

[TheBeaneBandit]

At least for his first year and beyond unless he gets very serious about strength training.....two words for Wright: Big Softie.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

As long as small is just a couple spots and no more than a 4th round pick that’s fine. Still need OL help day 2

 

We can get contribution from a 4th rounder, with a little luck. I hope the draft falls to us and we can sit put… or find a partner to move back a little. One thing we know for sure is Beane is not afraid to move around. 

[RiotAct]

31 minutes ago, sonyab1974 said:

What is the schedule for the draft when they show the Bills?

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is