On Running Backs

[Goin Breakdown]

I think of it in a couple of ways-

Tannahill (spelling may be off, idc)  becomes a better QB when everyone is fearing Henry. 
and then

Mixon runs all over us because we are fearing Burrow and chase. 
so with this is still want a good RB. Not all RBs have equal qualities such as strength, vision, stop and go, speed. 

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

All teams have needs the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with one of the worst Wr cores in Super Bowl history . If u really want to get down to it it’s the QB and the trenches that make the biggest difference in the NFL and if u just look at the Super Bowl winning teams u will see that .  The most common denominator of winning Superbowls are great QBs and Lines play.
 

1st rd Wrs hardly ever win the Superbowl even in this modern day game the Wrs that have won are usually later rd pks like Tyreek Hill or Cooper Kupp . Mof since 2008 there’s only been a few 1st rd Wrs that won the Super Bowl Mike Evans with Tampa and Demariyus Thomas but that Bronco team didn’t win because of there passing game Peyton was a shell of himself.  I know u got all these needs listed but what we really are missing is Superstar talent and that’s across the board not just at a few positions. 

It’s always QB and the trenches that dictate success. Without those in place the skill positions can’t be effective. 

[Warriorspikes51]

If Robinson is there at 27, you take him. He’s a top 10 or top 5 on every Big Board

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

A perfect example is Saquan...Giants were morons for passing on a QB with having Eli on one last leg during a QB rich draft (could have landed Allen) to take a RB.  However, it was not wrong for Saquan to be drafted in the top 10, he was that good and proved to be that good in the NFL.  Just specifically having the 2nd overall pick and taking a RB instead of a QB to groom for a season behind Eli was definitely a mistake.  Especially when you see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were still on the board.  Then again, if they favored either Rosen or Donald, then Saquan worked out to be the better choice lol even the fundamentally it was still a bad strategy.  HOWEVER, it was not a mistake for Saquan to be drafted in the first round or even top 10, he proved to be worth the early selection.  

 

I am not advocating for drafting a RB in the first round, I am just pushing back on those tweets trying indicate its always wrong to pick a RB in the first round.  Which is just a stupid notion.  

 

 

But who was the BPA at the time?   Josh Allen coming off an unspectacular career in a lowly regarded conference.......or SAQUON BARKLEY.......coming off 3800 total yards in a major conference the prior two seasons?

 

This is where people who try to sell the logic of "BPA" as the reason to select Barkley stray far off target.    You literally do that further down thread while out of the other side of your mouth calling the Giants morons for taking Barkley instead of a QB.

 

The reality is that without positional value BPA is an irrelevant distinction.

 

As for your last statement..........what is the great advantage to being RIGHT about selecting a RB in round 1?    If you think the middling career Saquon Barkley has had  justifies a top 10 selection you are dead wrong.   But even if he strung together 5 seasons where he was always a top 5 RB...........what's that juice worth as an organization?   Saying it's not "always wrong"........especially when it almost always is and defnitely WAS in Barkley's case.........is hardly a reason to just do it!   

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But who was the BPA at the time?   Josh Allen coming off an unspectacular career in a lowly regarded conference.......or SAQUON BARKLEY.......coming off 3800 total yards in a major conference the prior two seasons?

 

This is where people who try to sell the logic of "BPA" as the reason to select Barkley stray far off target.    You literally do that further down thread while out of the other side of your mouth calling the Giants morons for taking Barkley instead of a QB.

 

The reality is that without positional value BPA is an irrelevant distinction.

 

As for your last statement..........what is the great advantage to being RIGHT about selecting a RB in round 1?    If you think the middling career Saquon Barkley has had  justifies a top 10 selection you are dead wrong.   But even if he strung together 5 seasons where he was always a top 5 RB...........what's that juice worth as an organization?   Saying it's not "always wrong"........especially when it almost always is and defnitely WAS in Barkley's case.........is hardly a reason to just do it!   

 

What are you talking about?  Josh Allen was almost the #1 overall pick, its not like anyone expected him to go late in the draft.  There was still Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar too.  

 

You don't take a RB 2nd overall in a rich QB draft class when your team needs a QB.   

 

Your reply makes no sense what so ever.  All I said was taking a RB in the first is NOT always wrong.  You know the first round has 32 picks in it right? LMAO.  And I said Barkely was a top 10 talent, but it was NOT correct to choose a RB over a QB in the top 10 when your team needed a QB.  I guarantee you if you polled 100 GMs all 100 would say the same thing.  But that didn't mean Barkely is a mistake to take in the top 10 if another team needed a RB and had chosen him if the Giants were smart enough to go QB instead of Barkley.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What are you talking about?  Josh Allen was almost the #1 overall pick, its not like anyone expected him to go late in the draft.  There was still Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar too.  

 

You don't take a RB 2nd overall in a rich QB draft class when your team needs a QB.   

 

Your reply makes no sense what so ever.  All I said was taking a RB in the first is NOT always wrong.  You know the first round has 32 picks in it right? LMAO.  And I said Barkely was a top 10 talent, but it was NOT correct to choose a RB over a QB in the top 10 when your team needed a QB.  I guarantee you if you polled 100 GMs all 100 would say the same thing.  But that didn't mean Barkely is a mistake to take in the top 10 if another team needed a RB and had chosen him if the Giants were smart enough to go QB instead of Barkley.

 

 

 

 

Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick.   That should be enough said but where someone was or "almost" was selected in your hypothetical has nothing to do with BPA..........which is your sales pitch for the Bills selecting Bijan Robinson later in the discussion.   

 

You said that Barkley has justified a top 10 selection with his play.   I don't know how you can expect to go from there to saying anything rational.  That is just a ridiculous take.   His overall production has been middling.   You might want to shelve that take.

 

Every year there is a new "great" RB......sometimes 2 like the dynamic duo of Najee and Etienne a couple years ago........that gets people trying to rationalize why they should be selected in round 1.   And in recent history it has, in fact, always turned out poorly for that team.    Considering that the first round generally produces 40%-50% of players who justify good second contracts.........taking a RB in round 1 has proven to be a consistently poor decision regardless of their hype.    That's what matters.   Not whether this ONE TIME might be the extreme outlier. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

Devin Singletary had a career 4.7 yards per carry. You could argue it was because we don't feature the RB position in this offense but then your argument would have to be that we will feature the RB in this offense. Which we won't. If we address the line, Harris, Cook, and Hines will be just fine. If you want one more guy I can give you half a dozen 3rd/4th/5th round picks that can give you replacement value. Betting on above replacement value at a position that declines rapidly and using premium assets to do so makes zero sense.  

 

Agree emphatically.  Given we're in a passing era with a pass-first offense and have an All-Star QB, I'm reasonably happy with our diverse RB room.  I'm not sure how much confidence I have in Dorsey scheming either run or pass plays for RBs.  But the big issue is the OL.  A better OL will bodyguard our QB better and open holes for the backs.  

 

Looking at value-added in the RB position, I don't know how much we can get in the draft.  Seems like bigger upgrades are probably available elsewhere.  Though I don't know how I'd feel if Bijon was available at 27 but I'm certainly not itching to trade up for him.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

If the argument over injuries is a concern - then what’s it matter?  
 

Just plug in the next guy to your system that will absolutely see the same fronts or boxes.  
 

Should get the same results right?  Like New England when they lost Stevenson, the Titans lost Henry last year, Hall and the Jets.  
 

 

If you’re picking a RB in top 10 your team sucks anyway and no single RB is going to save it.  
 

RBs need to land in the right spot like most every other player but with them, I believe the data your getting back comparing 1st round picks vs later has to be skewed to bad team drafting them vs a good one.  
 

Perfect spots for Bijan and the team drafting him:  Vikings (if they trade Cook), Cowboys, Bills, Eagles at 30.  

If the Bills get Bijan all these fans will lose there minds until they actually see him on the field slicing up those 6 man fronts and making life a lot easier on Josh. I don’t think Bijan will make it to us I would love to get Tucker in the 4th or 5th rd he’s gonna be great to and would absolutely kill it in our offense. 

[Mr. WEO]

but...but..."Shady" said....!

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The system had everything to do with Purdy's success.   He's a perfect fit.   There is no hesitation in his game and he makes all the throws the offense asks of him very well.   If he had 2018 Matt Breida he would have done just as well or better...........and he'd have been fine if they had just kept Jeff Wilson........who, as I illustrated,  was a bigger threat running the ball.    Anyone who thinks that Purdy is some sort of creation made possible by McCaffrey just doesn't know what they are watching.

 

Not sure how some of you as Bills fans..........who have literally watched the Bills refuse to put a 3rd LB on the field regardless of the situation..........don't realize that NFL defenses prefer you to take the short 4.7 yards per rush and 8-9 yards per reception gains of a good RB rather than being beaten for 10+ yard pops in the pass game.    

 

If the Bills are regularly a top 5 defense and they do it that way.........then why do you think other teams are suddenly hyper-focused on stopping an opposing RB?    

 

Just because they have a big name?   It's a figment of your imagination. 

 

The modern defensive logic is very simple:   the more plays you make an offense run........the more likely they will make a mistake on offense that undermines their drive.    Small-bite, RB-centric game plans are loaded with opportunity for mistakes.   

 

Again........this is not 1990.   The rules favor the downfield passing game immensely now and you don't have 7 years of control over players on their first contracts any longer and practice time is limited so it's a very different looking running game.

Okay... explain to me why the Niners gave up all that capital and Jeff Wilson for CMC?? 

[Inigo Montoya]

All I know is the the prospect of Andy Reid with Mahomes, Kelce, and Bijon Robinson would drive a stake through the heart of the Bills' Super Bowl aspirations for years.  It would be an unstoppable offense.  KC getting Robinson at pick 31 would be disgusting. 

 

If Bijon Robinson is there at pick 27, the Bills need to draft him.  Don't even answer the phone.  Turn in the card.

 

If he ends up in Andy Reid's offense we're done.

[BADOLBILZ]

40 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Okay... explain to me why the Niners gave up all that capital and Jeff Wilson for CMC?? 

 

Why did they trade 3 first rounders to move up to get Trey Lance when they had a QB on roster who had taken them to a SB and when their system is designed to not need(or showcase) elite traits QB's?

 

The answer is that they don't value draft picks the same way that other teams do and the way logic suggests that they should.

 

Trading early picks for a $10M+ RB like San Francisco isn't going to make you draft and develop the way that the Niners have......that goes for players AND coaches(who then become comp picks).............which is why some of their early round draft pick lunacy hasn't burned them more.

 

Still........how would that team stack up in the AFC?   Elite QB's are their kryptonite and the fact that their system isn't designed to maximize the production of an elite QB is part of the problem when they meet up with them.    Similar problem the Eagles have. 

 

And fwiw we aren't talking about the Chiefs here.......Shanahan lost the 1 SB he was in as a head coach and was the OC of the biggest blown lead in SB history for the Falcons and his system has a bizarre history of getting QB's injured despite being a heavy run team.    They aren't a gold standard.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[NastyNateSoldiers]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

This is where Beane screwed up the most in using three day two picks on RB's over the last four drafts. Yes, he missed on Cody Ford at guard, but I'm willing to bet had he used two more day two picks on o-line rather than RB over the last four years that at least one of them would have hit and would still be on the team.

 

Instead, he drafted three RB's. Two of which are no longer on the team. 

 

IMO, we should have drafted Singletary as we did and then drafted o-line rather than each of Moss and Cook. And this year we would be looking to draft Singletary's replacement. 

Should’ve never drafted that scrub Singletary either rather have taken Pollard in that draft . People don’t realize how much Singletary really sucks as a player he never took advantage of the lightest box in the league and when we needed a yd it felt like ten . The 2021 playoff game vs KC he was a big part of that loss not converting on a couple short yd plays . I’m glad he’s finally gone. 

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

All I know is the the prospect of Andy Reid with Mahomes, Kelce, and Bijon Robinson would drive a stake through the heart of the Bills' Super Bowl aspirations for years.  It would be an unstoppable offense.  KC getting Robinson at pick 31 would be disgusting. 

 

If Bijon Robinson is there at pick 27, the Bills need to draft him.  Don't even answer the phone.  Turn in the card.

 

If he ends up in Andy Reid's offense we're done.

@BADOLBILZ gave me an eyeroll emoji for my post above.  No reason why I’m wrong, of course, just an eye roll.

 

Andy Reid, best offensive coach in the NFL

Mahomes top 2 QB in the NFL

Travis Kelce top TE in the NFL

2nd best O-line in the NFL

 

And then you add what is likely to be the top three down RB in the NFL to that offense?

 

The Chiefs offense would be a point scoring  juggernaut and Josh can stand on his head all game long and we’re not keeping up with them score for score.

 

Where am I wrong here?  What do the Bills add in this draft on offense to keep up with that?

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What are you talking about?  Josh Allen was almost the #1 overall pick, its not like anyone expected him to go late in the draft.  There was still Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar too.  

 

You don't take a RB 2nd overall in a rich QB draft class when your team needs a QB.   

 

Your reply makes no sense what so ever.  All I said was taking a RB in the first is NOT always wrong.  You know the first round has 32 picks in it right? LMAO.  And I said Barkely was a top 10 talent, but it was NOT correct to choose a RB over a QB in the top 10 when your team needed a QB.  I guarantee you if you polled 100 GMs all 100 would say the same thing.  But that didn't mean Barkely is a mistake to take in the top 10 if another team needed a RB and had chosen him if the Giants were smart enough to go QB instead of Barkley.

 

 

The undeniable fact that the Giants should not have drafted Barkley at 2 overall has little or nothing to do with whether or not they needed a QB.  (Of course they should have selected Josh Allen, but at the time, they were still committed to Eli.)  If the Giants weren't going to take a QB themselves, they should have traded out of the pick with a team that wanted one of the QBs (like the Colts did that year, picking up three second round picks from the Jests to move from 3 to 6).  Taking a RB at 2 overall is ALWAYS a mistake, not just when you need a QB.      

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

@BADOLBILZ gave me an eyeroll emoji for my post above.  No reason why I’m wrong, of course, just an eye roll.

 

Andy Reid, best offensive coach in the NFL

Mahomes top 2 QB in the NFL

Travis Kelce top TE in the NFL

2nd best O-line in the NFL

 

And then you add what is likely to be the top three down RB in the NFL to that offense?

 

The Chiefs offense would be a point scoring  juggernaut and Josh can stand on his head all game long and we’re not keeping up with them score for score.

 

Where am I wrong here?  What do the Bills add in this draft on offense to keep up with that?

 

 

I gave you an eyeroll because the same could have been said when they selected the then-spectacular Clyde Edwards Helaire.

 

We keep hearing that combining an elite RB with an elite QB is SOMEDAY going to lead to........apparently.........a RB who runs for 8 yards per carry........therefore not leading to less production per attempt than an elite QB throwing the ball on those plays.

 

And then that RB will also catches passes and produce just like a wide receiver so you aren't sacrificing throwing to said WR.

 

That's not how it works though.

 

The teams that have RB's that produce both a high volume of carries AND a high average per carry are the teams who are committed to running the football.

 

Light boxes sound tantalizing but teams that run the ball well consistently do it because that is their style of football.    Teams that don't have erratic results when they try to change their style.   Just too many mistakes can be made.

 

In today's NFL.......committing to run the football enough to feed a 20+ touch per game RB comes at the expense of your passing game.

 

It's just not the 1990's anymore where you need the run game to set up the pass.

 

Nowadays your elite QB can drop back and throw the ball 40+ times per game and dominate..........and maybe not even get sacked or turn the ball over..........and those yards per play are significantly higher than what you will get from ANY high use RB.    

[Inigo Montoya]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I gave you an eyeroll because the same could have been said when they selected the then-spectacular Clyde Edwards Helaire.

 

We keep hearing that combining an elite RB with an elite QB is SOMEDAY going to lead to........apparently.........a RB who runs for 8 yards per carry........therefore not leading to less production per attempt than an elite QB throwing the ball on those plays.

 

And then that RB will also catches passes and produce just like a wide receiver so you aren't sacrificing throwing to said WR.

 

That's not how it works though.

 

The teams that have RB's that produce both a high volume of carries AND a high average per carry are the teams who are committed to running the football.

 

Light boxes sound tantalizing but teams that run the ball well consistently do it because that is their style of football.    Teams that don't have erratic results when they try to change their style.   Just too many mistakes can be made.

 

In today's NFL.......committing to run the football enough to feed a 20+ touch per game RB comes at the expense of your passing game.

 

It's just not the 1990's anymore where you need the run game to set up the pass.

 

Nowadays your elite QB can drop back and throw the ball 40+ times per game and dominate..........and maybe not even get sacked or turn the ball over..........and those yards per play are significantly higher than what you will get from ANY high use RB.    

No one puts Bijon Robinson and Edwards-Helaire in the same sentence.  That’s comparing apples and toaster ovens.  
 

The Bills have an elite QB who does throw the ball 40 times a game and it’s obviously not been enough to win a championship.

 

Its easy to ignore the run game and drop everyone into coverage when there’s an average RB behind Allen or Mahomes.  Put Robinson back behind them and now you’ve gotta make a hard choice as a defense.  A smart QB, like Josh and Mahomes will audible every time to take advantage of the mismatch the defense gives them.

 

The Bills can field that advantage, or the Chiefs can field that advantage.  I know where I stand on that choice.

 

I hope the Texans draft him with one of their two first rounders and save us all from this and then the Bills can grab the two best O-linemen left on the board in the first two rounds.

[Big Blitz]

I think Pacheco pretty much solidified that the Chiefs won’t take Bijan. 
 

But the Bengals might.  Or the Eagles.  
 

I’d be shocked if he made it to day 2.  

 

[Inigo Montoya]

4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I think Pacheco pretty much solidified that the Chiefs won’t take Bijan. 
 

But the Bengals might.  Or the Eagles.  
 

I’d be shocked if he made it to day 2.  

 

If the Derrick Henry rumors are true I think you can take Philly out of the mix.

 

I’m not real excited to see Robinson lining up behind Burrow either.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Why did they trade 3 first rounders to move up to get Trey Lance when they had a QB on roster who had taken them to a SB and when their system is designed to not need(or showcase) elite traits QB's?

 

The answer is that they don't value draft picks the same way that other teams do and the way logic suggests that they should.

Or maybe in both circumstances they thought each move made their team better?? 

It seems to me that other teams that think they can win now are more into getting a known prospect than hoping/waiting on an unknown

Edited April 22, 2023 by Solomon Grundy