On Running Backs

[Einstein's Dog]

My reasons against taking an RB in the 1st:

 

1.  Finances - the Bills are going with an inexpensive RB room.  Taking an RB at 27 is a $2,5M addition, more than Cooks or Harris make now.

 

2. Offensive philosophy - the Bills have what may arguably be the best 25-30 yard passer in football.  I want the offense to be built around that.

 

3.  5th year option - generally you don't want to be the team that is doing the second contract for an aging RB.  Those contracts are expensive and the RB will generally start fading earlier than other positions.  Also lately 1st round RBs won't serve their fifth year without a new contract - Zeke/Bell.

 

4.  Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else.  For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

54 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

4.  Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else.  For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

 

This is where Beane screwed up the most in using three day two picks on RB's over the last four drafts. Yes, he missed on Cody Ford at guard, but I'm willing to bet had he used two more day two picks on o-line rather than RB over the last four years that at least one of them would have hit and would still be on the team.

 

Instead, he drafted three RB's. Two of which are no longer on the team. 

 

IMO, we should have drafted Singletary as we did and then drafted o-line rather than each of Moss and Cook. And this year we would be looking to draft Singletary's replacement. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Absolutely can’t disagree with a lot of this.  

 

 

 

 

 

However, what the “analytics” are doing is defending analytics - we get it - OVER TIME the math says blah blah….

 

But these numbers can’t quantify:

 

1.  that CMC saved the 49ers season.  
2. RBs don’t matter but Singletary wasn’t good enough and we went looking for RB help

3. Fournette is a major reason why the Bucs won the SB

4. The Chiefs made the “grave mistake” of taking a RB in the first round - a horrible use of a pick - but still won the Super Bowl albeit a year later and with another RB - but the pick didn’t hurt them. 
5. Saquan Barkley carried the Giants to the playoffs.  He was a first round pick.  
 

 

We are over thinking RBs.  Basically everyone wants a good one but doesn’t want to pay in draft capital or money.  
 

The argument in his tweets is that circumstance determines a RBs success.  I mean sure - but some RBs are elite some are good some are meh and some stink.  Essentially argues for “it doesn’t matter your RB.”  
 

It’s ridiculous.  

 

If you had a do over - Breece Hall or Elam?  Trade for CMC?  Not really looking to debate that for the 100th time I’m just making a point.  
 

 

I think the injury risk is the problem.  You know they’ll miss time.  I don’t think that should dissuade you from picking them high.   

 

It just depends on the team and where - say the Bears take Bijan at 9 - dumb.  
 

The Cowboys at 26?  I think that’s a great spot and pick.  

 

The future of the RB position is going to be interesting.  

 

 

 

Almost nothing you said is true...........much of it is utterly ridiculous.

 

Not sure why some people are so desperate to go out of their way to deny decades of accumulated data.

 

It's not "over-thought"..........RB's are of little consequence when it comes to winning a Super Bowl and having one who requires a lot of touches is likely a burden on SB aspirations.

 

Hearing that Derrick Henry is headed to the Eagles.........that's a good recipe for a step back for the Eagles.

Edited April 22, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[hondo in seattle]

The devaluation of RBs is interesting.  Go back to the 70s and most of the #1 overall draft picks, and most of the Heisman winners, were RBs as I recall.   Because they were on the cover of magazines and signing big contracts, the best athletes wanted to be running backs.  

 

Now you often hear, "Running backs are a dime a dozen."  These days the best athletes become WRs, CBs, and sometimes even QBs.  And, yep, the stats about the comparative unimportance of RBs are impressive.

 

Yet, imagine if there were an OJ or a Jim Brown available in the draft.  A preternaturally talented RB would add wins to your season - if your scouts were smart enough to identify him.    

 

But, as others point out, a good running game does not necessarily require a good RB.  I'm old enough to have witnessed unheralded Willie Ellison run for 247 yards - the NFL record at the time - through gaping holes back in '71.

 

An offense that's multifaceted and can run inside or outside, throw short or deep, is extremely difficult to defend.  That's what I want to see from the Bills.   The passing game works better when the defenders respect the run.  

[Big Blitz]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Almost nothing you said is true...........much of it is utterly ridiculous.

 

Not sure why some people are so desperate to go out of their way to deny decades of accumulated data.

 

It's not "over-thought"..........RB's are of little consequence when it comes to winning a Super Bowl and having one who requires a lot of touches is likely a burden on SB aspirations.

 

Yea I’ll differ to John Lynch on that one.  

 

 

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Hearing that Derrick Henry is headed to the Eagles.........that's a good recipe for a step back for the Eagles.

 

No it won’t.  That’s absurd.  

[Don Otreply]

We already got one (three) they’re very nice…

[gjv]

Based on evaluations of most Draft Prospect evaluators, Bijon Robinson is an RB in the mold of Saquon Barkley with the additional skill set of a slot receiver. An NFL team can build an offense around this three-down back. I can see the Bills rushing him 12 to 15 times a game and throwing to him 5 to 8 passes/gm. I don't think there is another player in the draft, who could fall within a reasonable trade-up cost, that could have a more profound impact on the Bills offense for the next 5 seasons.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Yea I’ll differ to John Lynch on that one.  

 

 

 

No it won’t.  That’s absurd.  

 

 

The RB the 49ers traded to make room for McCaffrey was averaging over 5 yards per carry..........McCaffrey finished with a Singletary-esque 4.7 ypc as a 49er last season.    RB's in that offense tend to average 5 ypc and 9 yards per reception.   He was a step down running the ball and a step up from Jeff Wilson in the pass game but still........as with all RB's........throwing to him was less effective than throwing the ball to a good slot receiver.    

 

What "saved" the 49ers season was Brock Purdy and a weak NFC.     The Chiefs absolutely speedboated them in SF despite McCaffrey's best efforts because teams that live by the run ultimately die by the pass in the NFL today.

 

And yes,  the obligation to give Derrick Henry 20 touches per game promises to undermine the Eagles offense come playoff time.......just as it has for other teams with feature RB's for a very long time now. 

[Big Blitz]

3 minutes ago, gjv said:

Based on evaluations of most Draft Prospect evaluators, Bijon Robinson is an RB in the mold of Saquon Barkley with the additional skill set of a slot receiver. An NFL team can build an offense around this three-down back. I can see the Bills rushing him 12 to 15 times a game and throwing to him 5 to 8 passes/gm. I don't think there is another player in the draft, who could fall within a reasonable trade-up cost, that could have a more profound impact on the Bills offense for the next 5 seasons.

 

I agree and it’s a pick you absolutely make at 27 if the RD 1 WR and OTs you want are gone.  
 

Based on other needs that we can fill later, and strength and depth we have at other spots - that’s why you take Bijan. 
 

You don’t avoid him because the data says RD 1 RBs aren’t worth it.  
 

That thinking gets you Zach Moss.   

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The RB the 49ers traded to make room for McCaffrey was averaging over 5 yards per carry..........McCaffrey finished with a Singletary-esque 4.7 ypc as a 49er last season.    RB's in that offense tend to average 5 ypc and 9 yards per reception.   He was a step down running the ball and a step up from Jeff Wilson in the pass game but still........as with all RB's........throwing to him was less effective than throwing the ball to a good slot receiver.    

 

What "saved" the 49ers season was Brock Purdy and a weak NFC.     The Chiefs absolutely speedboated them in SF despite McCaffrey's best efforts because teams that live by the run ultimately die by the pass in the NFL today.

 

And yes,  the obligation to give Derrick Henry 20 touches per game promises to undermine the Eagles offense come playoff time.......just as it has for other teams with feature RB's for a very long time now. 

 

 

What did the eye test tell you our offense needed most - besides Josh to be elite all the time.  

[Solomon Grundy]

4 minutes ago, gjv said:

Based on evaluations of most Draft Prospect evaluators, Bijon Robinson is an RB in the mold of Saquon Barkley with the additional skill set of a slot receiver. An NFL team can build an offense around this three-down back. I can see the Bills rushing him 12 to 15 times a game and throwing to him 5 to 8 passes/gm. I don't think there is another player in the draft, who could fall within a reasonable trade-up cost, that could have a more profound impact on the Bills offense for the next 5 seasons.

And give us a legit chance to win the AFC and ultimately the Super Bowl. I don't know about the rest of the forum, but I'm ready to win the title within the next 5 years. Long term sustainability be damned!! 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The RB the 49ers traded to make room for McCaffrey was averaging over 5 yards per carry..........McCaffrey finished with a Singletary-esque 4.7 ypc as a 49er last season.    RB's in that offense tend to average 5 ypc and 9 yards per reception.   He was a step down running the ball and a step up from Jeff Wilson in the pass game but still........as with all RB's........throwing to him was less effective than throwing the ball to a good slot receiver.    

 

What "saved" the 49ers season was Brock Purdy and a weak NFC.     The Chiefs absolutely speedboated them in SF despite McCaffrey's best efforts because teams that live by the run ultimately die by the pass in the NFL today.

 

And yes,  the obligation to give Derrick Henry 20 touches per game promises to undermine the Eagles offense come playoff time.......just as it has for other teams with feature RB's for a very long time now. 

Do you really believe that CMC didn't have anything to do with Brock Purdy's success? You can't diminish the thread he was to opposing defenses out of the backfield. Had the Niners had anyone that could've thrown the ball 10 yards downfield we might've had a different outcome in the championship game

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, gjv said:

Based on evaluations of most Draft Prospect evaluators, Bijon Robinson is an RB in the mold of Saquon Barkley with the additional skill set of a slot receiver. An NFL team can build an offense around this three-down back. I can see the Bills rushing him 12 to 15 times a game and throwing to him 5 to 8 passes/gm. I don't think there is another player in the draft, who could fall within a reasonable trade-up cost, that could have a more profound impact on the Bills offense for the next 5 seasons.

 

 

Individual RB's don't have much impact on the overall running game of teams.   As mentioned in the data that the OP orginally posted and objected to........first round RB's don't tend to average more per carry than those taken later.    

 

Case in point..........you're RB standard of Saquon Barkley.    Not once since Devin Singletary entered the league has Barkley averaged as many yards per carry as Singletary.    Most of that time it's not even been close.

 

As for Robinson as a slot receiver........NOBODY is a better receiving RB than Christian McCaffrey..........he literally could have chosen to be a receiver instead of a RB........... and he's just a meager career 8.5 yards per reception player.     That doesn't cut it in the passing game of today.   Throwing to the RB is almost a gimmick now and there are always players who can catch the ball from the RB position kicking around cheap in UFA.

 

ACTUAL slot receivers have replaced the receiving back in the passing game.    Cole Beasley in 2020, for instance, averaged 11.8 yards per reception.   Ideally you are getting 11-15 yards per reception from your slot receiver depending on your style of offense.   That's a whole lot more production than the 6-9 yards per catch that most RB's are capable of. 

[SCBills]

Twitter ablaze based off whatever connections this guy is supposed to have to Henry’s agent. 
 

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

2 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

A nugget that may or may not support this.. The last five Superbowls.. 9 of 10 teams had a running back that was drafted in the first 2 rounds (although it may not have been by them)

Yup and only 2 of those teams had a Wr drafted in the first . 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Twitter ablaze based off whatever connections this guy is supposed to have to Henry’s agent. 
 

 

Nice!! This takes Bijan off the table for them. Keep on sliding baby

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As for Robinson as a slot receiver........NOBODY is a better receiving RB than Christian McCaffrey..........he literally could have chosen to be a receiver instead of a RB........... and he's just a meager career 8.5 yards per reception player.

Nobody thought Thurman would've been the receiving threat he was based off his collegiate play

[Big Blitz]

If the argument over injuries is a concern - then what’s it matter?  
 

Just plug in the next guy to your system that will absolutely see the same fronts or boxes.  
 

Should get the same results right?  Like New England when they lost Stevenson, the Titans lost Henry last year, Hall and the Jets.  
 

 

If you’re picking a RB in top 10 your team sucks anyway and no single RB is going to save it.  
 

RBs need to land in the right spot like most every other player but with them, I believe the data your getting back comparing 1st round picks vs later has to be skewed to bad team drafting them vs a good one.  
 

Perfect spots for Bijan and the team drafting him:  Vikings (if they trade Cook), Cowboys, Bills, Eagles at 30.  

Edited April 22, 2023 by Big Blitz

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

If you had a do over - Breece Hall or Elam?  Trade for CMC?  Not really looking to debate that for the 100th time I’m just making a point.  
 

Your post was solid until this.  Way too early to know if Bills should have taken Hall instead of Elam.  Hall tore an ACL and Elam flashed while also showing areas to grow.  One thing I know, is no one studies harder than Elam, and if he reaches his potential, hands down he is the much better choice over any RB.  

 

And the trade for CMC was an awful trade in terms of what the Niners gave up for any other team other than the Niners.  CMC would have been a 1 year rental for us and the Niners gave up a bounty.  We would not have the money to retain him and still build out the rest of the roster.  The Niners are not paying a big QB contract and have an entire offense built around the run game and short passes, a game CMC was tailored made for.  The Bills would not have used CMC to the same degree here either.

 

In terms of the rest of the post...I disagree with those tweets too, there is no logic to pass on a RB in the first round.  Someone showing statistically its a higher risk pick does not equate to every pick busts or doesn't return value.  So when there is a special prospect available, passing on him is not automatically the right choice because he is a RB.  For example, if Bijan falls to us at 27, Bills should sprint to the podium.  

 

Now where I think it comes into play more is let's say for example you are picking in the top 10 and there are stud prospects at OL, Edge, CB, DT on the board along with an stud RB prospect and your team also has needs at those other spots.  I would have a hard time prioritizing the RB there when those other positions are probably a more pressing need and higher priority.  But if I was picking in the top 10 and the BPA was a RB and that was also my teams biggest need, the team should take the RB.  

 

A perfect example is Saquan...Giants were morons for passing on a QB with having Eli on one last leg during a QB rich draft (could have landed Allen) to take a RB.  However, it was not wrong for Saquan to be drafted in the top 10, he was that good and proved to be that good in the NFL.  Just specifically having the 2nd overall pick and taking a RB instead of a QB to groom for a season behind Eli was definitely a mistake.  Especially when you see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were still on the board.  Then again, if they favored either Rosen or Donald, then Saquan worked out to be the better choice lol even the fundamentally it was still a bad strategy.  HOWEVER, it was not a mistake for Saquan to be drafted in the first round or even top 10, he proved to be worth the early selection.  

 

I am not advocating for drafting a RB in the first round, I am just pushing back on those tweets trying indicate its always wrong to pick a RB in the first round.  Which is just a stupid notion.  

Edited April 22, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Do you really believe that CMC didn't have anything to do with Brock Purdy's success? You can't diminish the thread he was to opposing defenses out of the backfield. Had the Niners had anyone that could've thrown the ball 10 yards downfield we might've had a different outcome in the championship game

 

 

The system had everything to do with Purdy's success.   He's a perfect fit.   There is no hesitation in his game and he makes all the throws the offense asks of him very well.   If he had 2018 Matt Breida he would have done just as well or better...........and he'd have been fine if they had just kept Jeff Wilson........who, as I illustrated,  was a bigger threat running the ball.    Anyone who thinks that Purdy is some sort of creation made possible by McCaffrey just doesn't know what they are watching.

 

Not sure how some of you as Bills fans..........who have literally watched the Bills refuse to put a 3rd LB on the field regardless of the situation..........don't realize that NFL defenses prefer you to take the short 4.7 yards per rush and 8-9 yards per reception gains of a good RB rather than being beaten for 10+ yard pops in the pass game.    

 

If the Bills are regularly a top 5 defense and they do it that way.........then why do you think other teams are suddenly hyper-focused on stopping an opposing RB?    

 

Just because they have a big name?   It's a figment of your imagination. 

 

The modern defensive logic is very simple:   the more plays you make an offense run........the more likely they will make a mistake on offense that undermines their drive.    Small-bite, RB-centric game plans are loaded with opportunity for mistakes.   

 

Again........this is not 1990.   The rules favor the downfield passing game immensely now and you don't have 7 years of control over players on their first contracts any longer and practice time is limited so it's a very different looking running game.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

My reasons against taking an RB in the 1st:

 

1.  Finances - the Bills are going with an inexpensive RB room.  Taking an RB at 27 is a $2,5M addition, more than Cooks or Harris make now.

 

2. Offensive philosophy - the Bills have what may arguably be the best 25-30 yard passer in football.  I want the offense to be built around that.

 

3.  5th year option - generally you don't want to be the team that is doing the second contract for an aging RB.  Those contracts are expensive and the RB will generally start fading earlier than other positions.  Also lately 1st round RBs won't serve their fifth year without a new contract - Zeke/Bell.

 

4.  Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else.  For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

 

I don't disagree with this, however, if Bijan fell to us at 27 he will be without question the BPA and I always advocate hard for taking the talent over reaching elsewhere.  And I would absolutely take him there.  

 

But, we are a downfield passing team, and I don't expect that to change even if we added Bijan.  I also feel pretty comfortable with a RB room of Harris, Cook, and Hines already, so I don't feel any pressure on this team to need to get a RB early.  It wouldn't suprise me though if they went after Bijans backup, RB Roschon Johnson in say the 3rd or 4th though with all his versatility and special teams value.  

[Mikie2times]

Devin Singletary had a career 4.7 yards per carry. You could argue it was because we don't feature the RB position in this offense but then your argument would have to be that we will feature the RB in this offense. Which we won't. If we address the line, Harris, Cook, and Hines will be just fine. If you want one more guy I can give you half a dozen 3rd/4th/5th round picks that can give you replacement value. Betting on above replacement value at a position that declines rapidly and using premium assets to do so makes zero sense.