Pre-Draft: Bills already much better than last year

[CSBill]

For what its worth (which is not much):

 

Safety- Much Better ... Agree

 

Corner- Same/Slightly Better ... Agree

 

Linebacker- Significant downgrade ... DIsagree, downgrade, but I do not think "significant"

 

DT- Same ... Agree

 

DE- Same ... Agree

 

QB- Same ... Agree

RB- Same ... Disagree, I feel this is much better with Cook in year 2 and Harris and Hines are strong compliments

 

TE- Same  ... Agree (and I hope we add here by drafting one of the top guys at 27)

 

WR- Slightly Better ... Disagree, this all depends on Davis -- was last year an aberration, or the norm?

 

OT- Same ... Agree, I'm very curious to see where Doyle is at, I felt he was going to push Brown for a significant role last year

 

IOL- Better ... Agree, Bates' replacement will be drafted and Bates will eventually be Morse's replacement.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

I understand the premise, a few thoughts

 

1.  Until Von Miller is playing at full rate, I think DE has be be downgrade

2.  A lot is the same but some guys are aging for instance the safeties, at some point that starts to decline on the field.

3.  It is not clear the perceived slight upgrades outweigh the downgrades, especially at MLB

4.  RB could be an upgrade as is today.

5.  The best path to improving the team through an improved defensive philosophy/in game coaching and Josh Allen making some minor improvements (mostly taking some shorter passes quickly on certain snaps).  QB is upgradeable as good as it is today!

[Chaos]

The Bills already were the best or near the best at some incredbly important metrics.  Wins - near the best. But the gap from Best to near the best is huge due to the playoff rules.  The improved AFC East vs the previously highly over rated AFC West makes it unlikely the Bills will improve to the best record. Offense - Near the best overall. Fewest punts in season. #1 PFF rated QB. #1-3 by most meaningful statistical categories.  There really is not meaningful room for increased production from the QB position.  Point production was pretty solid too. I know we fantasize about winning games 41-38 (and we can), but there are only so many possessions in a game, and the Bills are pretty good already at turning possessions into points. 

 

Where the Bills ranked worst or near the worst last year was 1) translating regular season success into playoff success 2)injury luck.    The only meaningful move the Bills made to address (1) is to become the only NFL team without a named DC. As a general rule novelty does not translate into success in the NFL.  Hopefully injury luck is better.  But the big four on defense, White, Miller, Poyer and Hyde all enter this season with a worse injury history than they entered last season.   White in particular is a glaring potential giant success or huge dud.  Last year the expectation at the beginning of the season was that White would come  back, get a few games in and be the old great Pre-2022 Tre White.  That never happened.  White did not even flash glimpses of his old self last year.  He he returns to pre-2022 form, that will be the biggest improvement on the team. If he stays at 2022 form, the team has cornerback problem. 

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, khlax3 said:

I just want to say up front sorry for the long post. We are 1 week out from the draft and I thought it would be a good idea to take a look position by position to see where the bills were from a roster standpoint compared to the majority of last year compared to the current roster.

 

Saftey- Much Better

For the majority of 2022 the roster was an injured poyer, Hamlin getting is first starting experience, Johnson who was a major disappointment, and Lewis/marlowe. In 2023 we are looking at a healthy Poyer and Hyde as well as Rapp (who is starting caliber) and Hamlin who now has experimence playing meaningful minutes

 

Corner- Same/Slightly Better

I went back and forth between same and better for this position. The players are for the most part the same but I expect this group to be better this year. White will be 1 1/2 removed from injury and have an offseason to get back into the grove and playing shape, Elam and benford are going into year 2 and showed promise in year 1, and we also have Jackson and Johnson back.

 

Linebacker- Significant downgrade

2022 we had Edmunds and Milano along with Dodson, Bernard, Spector and matekovich. This year we return everyone but Edmunds and have Klien prior to the season but even if one or 2 of them exceed expectations it like will still be a significant downgrade from Edmunds

 

DT- Same

This is the same group as 202. Oliver, Phillips, Jones, Settle. All 4 guys dealt with injuries last season and you hope they came be better if healthy but at this point you can’t say they got better or worse than last year 

 

DE- Same

Just like DT we are returning the same group. Miller, Groot, Epenesa, Basham, Lawson. I went with same here as well even though Miller missed several games last season there is no gurantee he is healthy to start the season. Epenesa has his best year last year but I think he has hit his ceiling 

 

QB- Same

Hopefully Allen is healthy and we swapped kyle Allen for Kenuem. Kenuem may be better than Kyle Allen but ultimately if Josh is hurt the season is over anyway

RB- Same

2022 we had Singletary, cook, Moss, Jones, Gilliam. In 2023 we lose Jones who offered nothing at the position and singletary who is a significant loss but we get cook in year 2 who showed progress throughout the year, Hines will have an offseason to be incorporated into the offense, and Harris who I think is an equal player to singletary but is a better fit as he offers something the team was missing

 

TE- Same 

As of right now this position looks the same as last year but I expect to add someone in the draft

 

WR- Slightly Better

For the majority of 2022 we played with Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir and guys we were grabbing off the street. 2023 we have diggs who is great and Davis who is who he is. Shakir is going into year 2 and looked good when he got opportunities. I think Sheffield and Harty ar Euphrates to McKenzie and we have much more depth than last year

 

OT- Same

Dawkins, Brown, Doyle, Quessenberry.  2023 players look similair to 2022. Although I’m not willing to say this position group is better there is potential. Brown missed all last offseason with a back injury and should be able to participate this year. Doyle was injured all year and Quesenberry also battled multiple injuries. It’s also year 2 in Kromers system

 

IOL- Better

2022 was primarily saffold, Morse, bates with Van Rotten as the primary backup. Saffold was terrible replacing him with McGovern is a big upgrade. Bates will also be going into year 2 of starting and we are going into year 2 with Kromer. Edwards and Boettger as back up IOL is much better depth than last year.

 

Overall besides linebacker this team has already either stayed the same or improved across the board. We will add several players on the draft and FA that will continue to improve each position. There has been a lot of doom and gloom on this board since the season ended but the future looks good!

 

I think it’s easy to say that almost any team is better this time of year versus at the end of a long, grueling season. I don’t mean to pee in your Cheerios, it’s just the reality of how injuries can impact a team. Our defense’s performance will largely hinge on star players coming back from injury - Miller, White, Hyde and Poyer all had significant injuries and there are questions as to how well at least three of them will return to form. 

 

There is potential for the defense to be better - even with the significant loss of Edmunds. The drop off potential at MLB is so significant because of the lack of a quality replacement. Edmunds (finally) developed into a very good player last season and we will miss that production if we don’t replace it. And as improved as Edmunds was, replacing his production shouldn’t cost anywhere near $18M a season. 

 

A better gauge might be a comparison of our final roster with the 2022 opening day roster. 

[khlax3]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

A better gauge might be a comparison of our final roster with the 2022 opening day roster. 

I considered taking that approach however the injuries last year were so significant that a lot of guys went out for large chunks of the season. It’s actually pretty amazing how many wins we actually got with the injuries 

 

All of these player missed at least 3 out of 16 regular season games last year 

 

White

Elam

Benford

Poyer

Hyde

Edmunds

Groot

Miller

Phillips

Oliver

Kumerow

crowder

Morse

Doyle

Boettger

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

OP: Thanks for putting this together! I asked about something similar in another thread. Yes, I agree with your overall premise. When the smoke cleared I’d say the Bills pretty much decided (or the cap forced them to decide) to stay where they were. Not a bad idea given a 13-3 record and the logical, ready made excuse of 2022’s many injuries. It’s not like the roster is terribly old. So now they head into the draft with only one glaring hole…..they absolutely have to replace a MLB. The rest of the roster, just like every other team’s needs upgrades of course, but Edmunds spot is the only one with a truly untested replacement. 

[Simon Says]

11 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Without a OL pick in the top of the draft we're only marginally better on the OLine. Beane is doing his OL thing again, quantity not quality.  If what we have now is the starting line up we'll be throwing 40 times a game and relying on Super Josh to move the chains on 3rd and short. I am hoping for a new OL starter in this draft. RT preferably, but will be happy for a C or IOL that can actually move the LOS a few inches.

Morse isn't going anywhere.  So you think Brown is the weak link?

I am tired of signing older, washed up veterans who,big deal, are 'versatile" . Give me a guy who EXCELS at ONE position  

[The Jokeman]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

1. We are worse at safety and for the time being MLB.  We are returning two aging vets that were injured last year. Hamlin is a good story but he wasn't that good on the field. If they don't draft a MLB then the on field play will probably be worse but at a considerably reduced cost.

2. OT is worse. Dawkins regressed in 2022 and Brown failed to improve. Really hurting at OT but I think this will be addressed in round 1-3.

3. IOL - should be better against the pass and depth is probably better too

 

MLB, OT, WR, Edge, TE. I will take four of those 5 in any order in the first four rounds. 

 

1. Taylor Rapp is better than any other safety we had last year not named Hyde or Poyer, hence the original thought we are better and I agree. Yes, Hyde and Poyer are older and might diminish yet until I see it on the field I can't say it's happened yet. Poyer played through injuries all season, all the more power to him but at times it hurt the D but he was still our best option. 

 

[BarleyNY]

53 minutes ago, khlax3 said:

I considered taking that approach however the injuries last year were so significant that a lot of guys went out for large chunks of the season. It’s actually pretty amazing how many wins we actually got with the injuries 

 

All of these player missed at least 3 out of 16 regular season games last year 

 

White

Elam

Benford

Poyer

Hyde

Edmunds

Groot

Miller

Phillips

Oliver

Kumerow

crowder

Morse

Doyle

Boettger

 

 

 

From an injury standpoint last season was certainly a very bad one for the Bills, so that makes sense. I worry about them this season because we have so many important players coming back from injuries - and because I don’t think enough was done to protect Allen.

 

Also it’s a house rule that I’m not allowed to say anything that might jinx the Bills. Three gameday rules in my house:

- My daughter wears her Diggs socks. 

- My wife does not put Bills bandanas on our dogs. 

- And I repeatedly have been told (How exactly was that phrased by my family and friends again? Oh yes, I remember.) to “Shut the f*** up!” The official rule is now “Dad shuts the f*** up.”

[mushypeaches]

I really don't care much about any of these off-season moves until we can build a sustainably good OL

 

Our ceiling is exactly where it has been the last 2 years without improvement there

[SCBills]

I agree with much of what the OP has stated.  I would argue that I like our RB room far more than last years.  Cook in Year 2, Hines with a full off-season and I like the Damien Harris fit on this team far more than Singletary.  

 

Pre-Draft, assessing this team's talent/potential.. A lot of it hinges on players returning from injury.

 

Can Brown stay healthy?  Can he get in a full off-season allowing him the chance to realize his elite level potential?  This OL is looking solid if Brown can at least be average.. but we're missing that (perceived) stud OL that KC has and that Miami/Cinci etc., have signed in recent years.  Brown has the potential to be that.. he also has an extremely low floor. 

 

Our Defense could be a Top 5 unit.. IF... guys we're counting on return to say, 90%, of what they were pre-injury.  Von, Tre, Hyde and Poyer.  Von missed half of last year, Tre was a shell of himself working back from injury, Hyde missed most of the year and Poyer probably should not have been playing towards the end of the season.. he was being held together by duct tape because we had no other options. 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by SCBills

[BuffaloRebound]

Draft is about next year as much as it is about this year.  DT is definitely the biggest need on the team next year since Phillips, Jones, Oliver, and Settle are all free agents next year.  Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Beane takes a DT with our 1st pick. 

[ProcessTruster]

I would totally play it back with this roster, esp with vastly improved health at Corner, Safety and O Line.    Beane made many solid additions in FA.

 

The draft will be nice and some new talent for future years will appear, but this team just needs to play better on Playoff game day, plain and simple ( as they will be there ) .   

[Eastport bills]

14 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Without a OL pick in the top of the draft we're only marginally better on the OLine. Beane is doing his OL thing again, quantity not quality.  If what we have now is the starting line up we'll be throwing 40 times a game and relying on Super Josh to move the chains on 3rd and short. I am hoping for a new OL starter in this draft. RT preferably, but will be happy for a C or IOL that can actually move the LOS a few inches.

The untenable cap situation we have is because Beane’s FA acquisitions have been overpaid middle tier lineman and depth players that haven’t made an impact. Miller was a good add but overpaying a 33 yr old with an injury history, is a long term damaging commitment with plenty of risk. He has holes in this roster that he freed up cap space to address, yet he whiffed on great LB candidates and either a #2 receiver or  RT. If we’re going to make Josh’s life easier, we have to do better than these pedestrian acquisitions made by Beane. Look at the last two offseason moves made by Beech in KC. They’re paying Mahomes, Kelce, Brown and Jones but they consistently have better O-lines, D-lines, RBs and receivers. They draft better and evaluate FAs better.

[Captain_Quint]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

1. Taylor Rapp is better than any other safety we had last year not named Hyde or Poyer, hence the original thought we are better and I agree. Yes, Hyde and Poyer are older and might diminish yet until I see it on the field I can't say it's happened yet. Poyer played through injuries all season, all the more power to him but at times it hurt the D but he was still our best option. 

 

I agree about Poyer. By the end of the year, he was a liability. But the alternative wasn't any better with the 4th or 5th option.

I'm glad that we found a way to resign him so he didn't have to go out like that in Buffalo. I still think he's got another few seasons left playing at a high level. 

[Rocky Landing]

14 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think the running back room is better with Harris in and Cook going to see an increased role 

I'm of the unpopular opinion that Harris is a slight downgrade from Motor-- certainly a downgrade in terms of durability. But even if he's a slight upgrade, the ups and downs of the run game have hinged on the efficiency of the O-line more than the running backs, IMO. 

[Don Otreply]

We are better in the sense that Josh is healed up, we have one new starting level O-line guy who is better than Saffold, and two WRs that are likely better than those they are intended to replace, V Miller? Now there is a question mark on Von hopping he comes back to advertised performance. The team as a whole is currently healthier and should be far better that the end of last seasons version, I have hope that we come out guns blazing, and don’t beat ourselves with poor play calling and or execution.

 

GO  BILLS!!!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Bills already were the best or near the best at some incredbly important metrics.  Wins - near the best. But the gap from Best to near the best is huge due to the playoff rules.  The improved AFC East vs the previously highly over rated AFC West makes it unlikely the Bills will improve to the best record. Offense - Near the best overall. Fewest punts in season. #1 PFF rated QB. #1-3 by most meaningful statistical categories.  There really is not meaningful room for increased production from the QB position.  Point production was pretty solid too. I know we fantasize about winning games 41-38 (and we can), but there are only so many possessions in a game, and the Bills are pretty good already at turning possessions into points. 

 

Where the Bills ranked worst or near the worst last year was 1) translating regular season success into playoff success 2)injury luck.    The only meaningful move the Bills made to address (1) is to become the only NFL team without a named DC. As a general rule novelty does not translate into success in the NFL.  Hopefully injury luck is better.  But the big four on defense, White, Miller, Poyer and Hyde all enter this season with a worse injury history than they entered last season.   White in particular is a glaring potential giant success or huge dud.  Last year the expectation at the beginning of the season was that White would come  back, get a few games in and be the old great Pre-2022 Tre White.  That never happened.  White did not even flash glimpses of his old self last year.  He he returns to pre-2022 form, that will be the biggest improvement on the team. If he stays at 2022 form, the team has cornerback problem. 

Corner is least of the team's issues. White despite whatever the hell took so long to get him back on the field was starting to look better with each game played. Add the fact Elam was playing well bodes well. They still have Jackson and Benford for insurance. 

Even with losing Edmunds which I advocated for, the biggest issue on D will be the pass rush yet again. Rousseau was looking ok before injury then looked awful down the stretch. Miller will be lucky to be back by Halloween. No help in free agency. 

As it stands now if they don't draft an edge rusher, McD is going to have to get creative to get a pass rush. 

[jethro_tull]

DC- significant upgrade.  

[OldTimer1960]

10 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Imma disagree with you about RB and WR and call each a slight downgrade.  Both Singletary and McKittrick were better than a lot of people here gave them credit for.  I hope I can be proven wrong, but I don't think their production will be easily replaced.

I agree that Singletary was under-appreciated by many fans, but Cook and Harris are a fine combination.  If they have problems running the ball with those two, I think it will be on the OL or the scheme.

 

I liked that McKenzie appreciated the fans, but he is not a loss that I lose sleep over.  Remember, they released him because they think the guys they signed are better - it wasn’t like they couldn’t have afforded to keep him.

Edited April 20, 2023 by OldTimer1960