Beane vs Whaley vs Donahoe Drafting

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

This is mostly true. He was forced out of Pittsburgh after a power struggle with Cowherd.  So when he became GM he hired young, inexperienced coaches that wouldn’t pose any threat like Cowher did.  
 

Ironically, after Donahoe Ralph Wilson felt burned.  For the rest of his time in Buffalo he refused to hire a GM that he didn’t personally know or have a relationship with already.  That resulted in the comical hires of Marv Levy, Russ Brandon and Buddy Nix ugh

This is a really good post. In the end it really hurt both people. TD and Ralph.

[Einstein's Dog]

16 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Love the post as both a thought exercise and as an actual attempt to compare different regimes' drafting. Thanks for posting.

 

As for the bolded, however, why would you "subtract Allen from Beane"?! He got the most important pick right, the first time. And it wasn't a top-2 or even top-5 consensus elite prospect. It was a projection. And they were arguably the only team that got it right (long-term) that year. 

 

Before I hit "submit reply" I'm realizing you are only offering that Allen-less comparison to show that Beane is still average otherwise, and not some Whaley-esque disaster.

But shouldn't even an Allen-less comparison have the other GM's subtracting their best player?  Beane wins "best player award", and then compare the rest of the field.

 

 

[Beck Water]

17 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results.  I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent =  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

 

My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). 

 

-For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022  /  2021-2022

-For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017

-For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005

 

I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was.

 

These are the results:

 

 

If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. 

 

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

Beane=  Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

 

I don't understand how you are computing AV for a draft. 

 

If you're giving Whaley 2017, for example, just Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano sum to AV of 141.  Are you averaging, or what? and over what # of players, because Beane didn't draft 26 players in 2022.....

 

Likewise as far as AV is concerned, Matt Milano has a wAV of 50, Robert Woods has a wAV of 56, Sammy Watkins has a wAV of 43, Tre White 46, and Dion Dawkins 45.  So totally not understanding how Preston Brown 34, Robert Woods, John Miller 31, Tre White and Dawkins would be Whaley's best 5 as far as AV is concerned.

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Not true… Beane traded a 1st round pick to acquire Diggs.  
 

The problem with Whaley is that he couldn’t see that his QB was trash…

He took players off the board and made the draft picks… that’s why you can’t give Whaley credit for 2017 like the OP did

 

I agree but got responses stating, no it was Whaleys draft.  McD even had a press conference stating Whaley did all the work so that proves it.  But my take is take that with a grain of salt as talk is cheap!

 

There was a post a month or 2 ago showing that in the past 4 to 5 years the Bills used as many draft picks on offensive players as defense.  I do think the OP's thinking in some cases was a bit flawed, but still showed not a huge difference in number of players selected.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Dan Darragh]

7 hours ago, Manther said:

I am not confident that is the case.  It might have been a good run with Donahoe if the Bills traded up and drafted Rotho something.  It would have changed the trajectory with the butterfly effect.  Donahoe had some good qualities.  Ralph Wilson would have trusted him more if we had Roethlisberger and had more success.

 

In all reality, if we drafted Roethlisberger the last 20 years would be totally different.

Right, Ben wouldn't have been ruined by Jauron/Fewell/Gailey/Marrone/Rex/Lynn

 

Prolly woulda won a coupla Superbowls.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I wouldn't say he missed on Bledsoe. Bledsoe was still productive when he got here. Donahoe's biggest problem was the coaches he hired. Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey were the worst guys to lead those teams

 

When Bledsoe arrived, the first half of his 1st season, he was great, then we played NE and he looked very bad.  Maybe it was a fluke, butthen played NE 2nd time late in year and Belichick again made him look terrible.  After that starting in year 2, teams knew how to defend Bledsoe and never looked all that good after that point.

 

When he came to Buffalo the other team in the running was the Bengals, but Bledsoe preferred Buffalo so he ended up here.  The way schedules work out you only play other teams in conference every 3 years except team who ends in same standing position.  I recall couple years afterwards looking at the schedules and NE did not play the Bengals for the first 3 years he was in Buffalo.  I always wondered though if he had gone to Bengals, would he have looked much better as wouldn't have been subject to Belichick exposing his weaknesses.  You can argue other team would have figured it out, but for the first 8 to 10 games in Buffalo, no one else could stop him very much.

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

Fun fact, AJ Epenesa had more sacks last year than Chris Kelsay had in any year of his 10 year career.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KelsCh21.htm

 

In what way is that fact, fun? Just asking... 

 

3 hours ago, tonawandarock said:

you could also make the case that josh fell into his lap...

 

 

3 hours ago, MJS said:

He traded up twice to get him.

 

Beane deserves some credit because he worked aggresively to get into a position to draft Josh Allen. But then he was arguably outmaneuvered in the end by the Jets... who then relinquished their advantage by drafting Darnold.

 

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This is mostly true. He was forced out of Pittsburgh after a power struggle with Cowherd.  So when he became GM he hired young, inexperienced coaches that wouldn’t pose any threat like Cowher did.  
 

Ironically, after Donahoe Ralph Wilson felt burned.  For the rest of his time in Buffalo he refused to hire a GM that he didn’t personally know or have a relationship with already.  That resulted in the comical hires of Marv Levy, Russ Brandon and Buddy Nix ugh

 

To add, Donahoe hired Cowher when Cowher was just 35 years old. Gregg Williams was 43 years old when Donahoe hired him.

 

To the overall discussion (as stated elsewhere), the margin between "success" and "failure" is often very thin... meaning varying shades of grey... not black and white.

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't understand how you are computing AV for a draft. 

 

If you're giving Whaley 2017, for example, just Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano sum to AV of 141.  Are you averaging, or what? and over what # of players, because Beane didn't draft 26 players in 2022.....

 

Likewise as far as AV is concerned, Matt Milano has a wAV of 50, Robert Woods has a wAV of 56, Sammy Watkins has a wAV of 43, Tre White 46, and Dion Dawkins 45.  So totally not understanding how Preston Brown 34, Robert Woods, John Miller 31, Tre White and Dawkins would be Whaley's best 5 as far as AV is concerned.

 

 

Ya, it's a tad confusing. I'm not looking at total player AV since draft. Somebody else on this site actually did that. I'm looking at any player selected by that GM during his tenure, then looking at the total players remaining in each of the GM's 4th year and 5th year (TD only made it until year 5 and Whaley really didn't). Then what is the total AV score of all drafted players in that 4th year and 5th year. So not what they did all the way up until the 4th and 5th year, but just that year. So for the 2017 draft, it was only catching the rookie years of White, Dawkins, and Milano. That's why I kept saying even in giving Whaley 2017, it really didn't impact much. 

 

Why did I just look at these years? TD had 5 drafts, Whaley had 4 (5 if you give him 2017) and Beane just completed his 5th. So it eliminated the player development argument. It captured draft contributions over a sustained time in a like way. It also offset some of the current conditions each inherited, showing what the teams looked like 4-5 years after they arrived. So a different look for sure. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by KzooMike

[Einstein]

4 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

Fun fact, AJ Epenesa had more sacks last year than Chris Kelsay had in any year of his 10 year career.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KelsCh21.htm

 

Doesn't surprise me. Kelsay wasn't a sack machine. His job was creating pressure and pushing QB's into Schobel's arms.

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But shouldn't even an Allen-less comparison have the other GM's subtracting their best player?  

 

His point is that 1 player can be a massive outlier and you can't judge a GM based on 1 player. No other GM got as lucky as Beane got with 1 player. Yes, he gets credit for it, but we need to look at what else has done and one way to do that is to temporarily remove the outlier.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

In what way is that fact, fun? Just asking... 

 

 

 

 

Beane deserves some credit because he worked aggresively to get into a position to draft Josh Allen. But then he was arguably outmaneuvered in the end by the Jets... who then relinquished their advantage by drafting Darnold.

 

 

To add, Donahoe hired Cowher when Cowher was just 35 years old. Gregg Williams was 43 years old when Donahoe hired him.

 

To the overall discussion (as stated elsewhere), the margin between "success" and "failure" is often very thin... meaning varying shades of grey... not black and white.

 

 

 

 

But I do believe that what happened with Cowher directly influenced the types of HC candidates he brought into Buffalo

[Einstein's Dog]

22 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

His point is that 1 player can be a massive outlier and you can't judge a GM based on 1 player. No other GM got as lucky as Beane got with 1 player. Yes, he gets credit for it, but we need to look at what else has done and one way to do that is to temporarily remove the outlier.

I understand his point.  What I am saying is his method of trying to prove it is flawed. 

 

We all agree that Beane's best is substantially better than the others best.  Give Beane credit for winning the besties, but then take them all out.  You can look at what else was done but to compare it to the others you need to take out their best too.

 

It can be like saying an RB's good ypc was inflated because of an outlier 90 yd run so you're going to take it out.  And you compare it to another RB while you let them keep their 65 yarder.

[Albany,n.y.]

19 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

He tried. I read something one time about how he had a deal in place with the Jaguars who were picking 9th in that 04 draft so he could try and grab Roethlisberger. The Jaguars were high on Reggie Williams the WR and told Donahoe if Williams was there, they would not make the deal. Well he ended up being there, the Jags stayed put and took him and we lost out on Roethlisberger to the Steelers. The most frustrating part about that whole thing is Reggie Williams ended up being a terrible draft pick by the Jaguars and they ruined everything by picking a complete bust

Here's the problem with what Donahoe did vs what Beane did.  Donahoe gave himself very little room to trade up if his deal fell through. By trying to trade to 9 with a team that could veto the trade if their player was there gave Donahoe very little wiggle room since Pittsburgh was at #11.  He should have started looking to trade up much earlier in the draft. As soon as Rivers went at 4, Donahoe should have been on the phone with every team from 5 down.  I suspect he wasn't willing to offer enough-Penny wise, pound foolish.  Beane, on the other hand started at 21, moved up to 12 and had a trade in place to move up to 5.  Like Donahoe, the team he had the trade with backed out because a certain player was available.  However, Beane had enough room to still trade up before either Arizona or Miami could put together a trade up deal & ace the Bills out of Allen.  When the Denver trade fell through & Indy wasn't going to trade the pick, Beane still had the ammunition to trade up to 7.  Chances are if things got more competitive, Beane knew he had the extra #1 which no other team he'd be competing with had.  Beane showed the courage to make something happen, Donahoe didn't.  

[Sierra Foothills]

25 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Here's the problem with what Donahoe did vs what Beane did.  Donahoe gave himself very little room to trade up if his deal fell through. By trying to trade to 9 with a team that could veto the trade if their player was there gave Donahoe very little wiggle room since Pittsburgh was at #11.  He should have started looking to trade up much earlier in the draft. As soon as Rivers went at 4, Donahoe should have been on the phone with every team from 5 down.  I suspect he wasn't willing to offer enough-Penny wise, pound foolish.  Beane, on the other hand started at 21, moved up to 12 and had a trade in place to move up to 5.  Like Donahoe, the team he had the trade with backed out because a certain player was available.  However, Beane had enough room to still trade up before either Arizona or Miami could put together a trade up deal & ace the Bills out of Allen.  When the Denver trade fell through & Indy wasn't going to trade the pick, Beane still had the ammunition to trade up to 7.  Chances are if things got more competitive, Beane knew he had the extra #1 which no other team he'd be competing with had.  Beane showed the courage to make something happen, Donahoe didn't.  

 

This is a fair criticism of Donahoe but keep in mind that with each year since, the premium on the QB position has increased to the point where it seems we're now seeing QBs that are not worthy of their draft positions being taken at the top of the draft.

 

It's a very different landscape than the one that saw the Bills drafting TE Tony Hunter at #12 and then drafting QB Jim Kelly 2 picks later.

 

 

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

21 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. 

 

Dumb error, I corrected it outside the graph, thank you. 

 

I wouldn't go that far. McGee was outstanding, McGahee was a wasted pick, but a decent player. Lee Evans was also very good. Then you have the start of our high motor dynasty which could have been worse.  I mean is Schobel not currently better than any of our DL picks? 

Schobel certainly is.  But Rousseau has the potential to be at Schobel's level.  And maybe even a little better.  But that maybe wishful thinking.  

 

Terrance McGee was outstanding.  Great football player.  Agree about McGahee and Lee Evans.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

11 hours ago, Chuck Schick said:

Yuck

Love your user name.  That's a name from way back in the day.  LOL 

But my thoughts exactly when I think of Ryan Denney Coy Wire and big Teddy bear Mike Williams.  Was he afraid to play football?  What was wrong w that guy?  Josh Reed had some game.  He was not a complete bust.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

9 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

For sure, Beane has had to lean on free agency heavily to supplement the roster and it worked - getting Brown and Beasley really kick-started the Bills passing revival and understanding that more talent at WR makes a difference. 

 

However, Ed Oliver over Jeff Simmons and Dexter Lawrence sticks out here. 

 

Cody Ford over DK Metcalf. 

 

The complete whiff on Zack Moss. 

 

Terrell Bernard seems to be heading down that path. 

 

Outside of Allen, the best draft pick Beane has made is Edmunds. 

 

 

The team is outstanding compared to what it had become in the later-Ralph years. And Beane secured Diggs, never giving up on the idea. But I agree that his drafting is ordinary and now you're competing in the finest margins. 

Edmunds being the best pick by Beane outside of Allen maybe true.  But if its true that's a sad indictment on his drafting.  Because personally I don't think Tremaine Edmunds made much of a difference on the Bills fortunes in the 5 years he played for us.  He did not suck.  But he was not a difference maker.  And I would argue that the difference in the results of our team over the past 5 years would be negligible if Edmunds never played for us.  He just barely ever made a difference.  I would argue that Devin Singletary was at least as good as Edmunds at their respective positions.  And he was no star either.  And that Dawson Knox has probably been a better draft pick then Edmunds.  

[Sierra Foothills]

15 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Edmunds being the best pick by Beane outside of Allen maybe true.  But if its true that's a sad indictment on his drafting.  Because personally I don't think Tremaine Edmunds made much of a difference on the Bills fortunes in the 5 years he played for us.  He did not suck.  But he was not a difference maker.  And I would argue that the difference in the results of our team over the past 5 years would be negligible if Edmunds never played for us.  He just barely ever made a difference.  I would argue that Devin Singletary was at least as good as Edmunds at their respective positions.  And he was no star either.  And that Dawson Knox has probably been a better draft pick then Edmunds.  

 

FWIW we selected Edmunds at #16 after trading #22 and #65 to Baltimore to move up. We also received pick #154 in return from the Ravens and selected Siran Neal.

 

The #22 pick ended up being LB Rashaan Evans (currently a free agent) and the #65 pick became OT Brandon Parker who in spite of starting 32 of 54 career games, is currently listed as the backup at RT for the Raiders.

 

That said, there were plenty of other good players selected after the Edmunds pick:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NFL_Draft

 

 

[Buffalo03]

8 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

When Bledsoe arrived, the first half of his 1st season, he was great, then we played NE and he looked very bad.  Maybe it was a fluke, butthen played NE 2nd time late in year and Belichick again made him look terrible.  After that starting in year 2, teams knew how to defend Bledsoe and never looked all that good after that point.

 

When he came to Buffalo the other team in the running was the Bengals, but Bledsoe preferred Buffalo so he ended up here.  The way schedules work out you only play other teams in conference every 3 years except team who ends in same standing position.  I recall couple years afterwards looking at the schedules and NE did not play the Bengals for the first 3 years he was in Buffalo.  I always wondered though if he had gone to Bengals, would he have looked much better as wouldn't have been subject to Belichick exposing his weaknesses.  You can argue other team would have figured it out, but for the first 8 to 10 games in Buffalo, no one else could stop him very much.

He destroyed Belichick game 1 of 03. Bledsoe was still a good QB. He didn't miss on Bledsoe. He missed on Losman, not Bledsoe. You also have to think the team around Bledsoe wasn't all that great in 03 and he played well during the 6 game winning streak in 04. Was it elite level? No, but he was productive

[CheshireCT]

On 4/19/2023 at 5:56 AM, GETTOTHE50 said:

wow beane was great at the first draft but average in the last couple so surprised.

 

its not like he had more picks and early draft position in the first draft as compared to the rest.

 

that has nothing to do with it.

 

 

ding ding ding!

 

Exactly why the draft was designed the way it was, give the losing teams a chance to get better players and the winners get the scraps.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

So let me see if I have this right.  You are sitting around in the absolute depth of the off-season, waiting for something relevant to the team and/or NFL to actually happen.  In this period of nothingness, you sit around and think "Gee, this franchise has a god awful history of drafting and terrible GM hires, but Beane is the best of them."

 

You then make a chart and throw some numbers out there supporting your thesis, and conclude with a little analysis that the numbers basically support your initial thought.

 

LMFAO

 

 

😂

 

In other data driven observations:  1) water is wet; 2) the sky is blue; 3) people at this forum love to argue over nothing, for the sake of the exercise.