Beane vs Whaley vs Donahoe Drafting

[78thealltimegreat]

19 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Right? Arguably the best player on the defense and certified All-Pro. And you can’t leave Allen out of the conversation considering the huge amount of draft capital (who otherwise could’ve given Beane more chances to acquire talent) used to move up and the fact that the pick actually hit for the most important position. Diggs = 1st Round pick in my book. Another massive hit. Some of these so called “busts” still haven’t even fully developed yet. Rousseau, Basham, Elam, etc could all become great. OP should make this list a few years from now. It’s too early

Milano was Doug Whaley 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results.  I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent =  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

 

My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). 

 

-For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022  /  2021-2022

-For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017

-For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005

 

I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was.

 

These are the results:

 

 

If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. 

 

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

Beane=  Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

 

 

Dude, thinking this is proves what you say it does says a lot more about how desperate you were to believe what you thought coming in than it does about the draft results of each guy. A lot more.

 

First, while I don't like Whaley's reign at all, it's not fair to assign the 2017 class to him. He was working under McDermott that year, and no matter what you think that means, it's not fair to give him credit or blame for what happened. He only had four years here, and I get that that means you only have four years to work with on Whaley, but there are other ways to handle that problem than assigning a year when the buck didn't stop with him to his total.

 

You say, "If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to an AV total of 97 and 86 ..."

 

And that's simply a desire to twist to support what you want to believe. You don't subtract a guy's best result and then compare him to other people without subtracting from them. You just don't. Unless of course you're desperately trying to lower his score compared to that of the others.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dude, thinking this is proves what you say it does says a lot more about how desperate you were to believe what you thought coming in than it does about the draft results of each guy. A lot more.

Huh? It's data. Interpret it as you wish. I don't have some long posting agenda on this topic.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year.

 

Agree I wouldn't give Whaley credit for White, but if you were giving him credit for that pick, would think then Milano also should be under Whaley as he'd rank in his top 5.

 

When you remove Beane's pick of Allen, you really need to recognize that he gave up draft picks in order to move up.  Without Allen Beane would have had some higher picks, even if only half of them were highly rated players, likely his grade would have been higher. 

 

Does this formula somehow take into account he traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, again depriving himself of maybe another good player. 

 

Bottom line IMO to be fair, you need to look at his actual number and not remove Allen from the equation as that pick factored in other ways top his total score.

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, bobobonators said:

The argument of “if you take away Allen, Beane is just mediocre at drafting” is asinine. Even more so bc Allen wasn’t a cant miss prospect. 
 

If you take Apple away from Steve Jobs he was just a dude in a weird turtleneck.
 

We should remove life’s greatest accomplishments from some of the posters on here, and then tell them how average they really are. 

 

Yes, McBeane have to be given credit for the drafting of Allen exactly because he was not a consensus "can't miss" prospect. In fact at least as many people thought Allen would be a bust (we are a bit lucky that the Jets took Darnold).

 

As far as the other thoughts above, this is exactly why you shouldn't "evaluate" a prospect based on highlights.

 

Regarding Donahoe, he did try to move up for Roethlisberger but failed. And even 20 years ago he understood the importance of the quarterback enough to then pursue Drew Bledsoe who was considered an excellent QB at that time.

 

The margin between success and failure is usually much less than people think.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Enemarty]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

He tried. I read something one time about how he had a deal in place with the Jaguars who were picking 9th in that 04 draft so he could try and grab Roethlisberger. The Jaguars were high on Reggie Williams the WR and told Donahoe if Williams was there, they would not make the deal. Well he ended up being there, the Jags stayed put and took him and we lost out on Roethlisberger to the Steelers. The most frustrating part about that whole thing is Reggie Williams ended up being a terrible draft pick by the Jaguars and they ruined everything by picking a complete bust

This is exactly why Beane wins the prize running away.  Beane wanted Allen and made multiple moves to go get his man, or at least get someone if Allen is off the board.  TD settled for a draft day scenario that was really out of his control.  And Whaley/Nix had a discussion over beers one night that getting a franchise quarterback would be a good idea.  I do give TD props for the Bledsoe trade - but not going to get Ben - and then moving to get JPL.  It all felt a bit lazy at the time and we payed the price.  Speaking of price...

 

I was fine with the Willis McGahee pick.  TD used the pick he got from Atlanta for Peerless (now that was highway robbery) on what we all considered a transformative player once he recovered.  Replace one solid offensive contributor with the Barkley of his day.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Again, some of the players were good prospects and good picks, but our dysfunctional culture due to poor coaches, FO, and owner robbed those kids of ever reaching their full potential.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

No Milano in Beane’s top 5?

No because Beane wasn't in Buffalo for the 2017 NFL Draft. 

33 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree I wouldn't give Whaley credit for White, but if you were giving him credit for that pick, would think then Milano also should be under Whaley as he'd rank in his top 5.

 

When you remove Beane's pick of Allen, you really need to recognize that he gave up draft picks in order to move up.  Without Allen Beane would have had some higher picks, even if only half of them were highly rated players, likely his grade would have been higher. 

 

Does this formula somehow take into account he traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, again depriving himself of maybe another good player. 

 

Bottom line IMO to be fair, you need to look at his actual number and not remove Allen from the equation as that pick factored in other ways top his total score.

Whaley and his Scouting Staff was here for 2017. 

 

He gets White, Dawkins, Hyde and Poyer. 

 

Beane was not here yet, and there was an interview when Whaley left in which McDermott said that it was Whaley's staff that ran Free Agency and the Draft that year.

 

 

Beane does not get credit for those players. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

Huh? It's data. Interpret it as you wish. I don't have some long posting agenda on this topic.  

 

 

No. It's not data.

 

As I pointed out above, when you start pulling sleight-of-hand like eliminating Allen from Beane's score it's numbers pre-adjusted to show a chosen result.

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

It was one pick, not a company and lifetime of work. One pick. Further, I'm not even downgrading Beane, it's the defensive Nancy types like you that can't even discuss what is obvious. Dude hasn't drafted well outside of Allen. Pretty factual. It's really hurt us that he hasn't. Also pretty factual. Allen being bigger than it all, also factual but not the point of this thread. That much is pretty obvious I would think. I also think it's a tad bit crazy to think Beane didn't have an element of luck in the drafting of Allen. Even if that was always his guy, hitting on any QB is not an exact science and every GM needs some luck in that process. If you don't agree with that, do you honestly think Beane would hit on every franchise QB he swung at? Hell even 50%?  

For sure, Beane has had to lean on free agency heavily to supplement the roster and it worked - getting Brown and Beasley really kick-started the Bills passing revival and understanding that more talent at WR makes a difference. 

 

However, Ed Oliver over Jeff Simmons and Dexter Lawrence sticks out here. 

 

Cody Ford over DK Metcalf. 

 

The complete whiff on Zack Moss. 

 

Terrell Bernard seems to be heading down that path. 

 

Outside of Allen, the best draft pick Beane has made is Edmunds. 

 

 

The team is outstanding compared to what it had become in the later-Ralph years. And Beane secured Diggs, never giving up on the idea. But I agree that his drafting is ordinary and now you're competing in the finest margins. 

[colin]

10 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

He tried. I read something one time about how he had a deal in place with the Jaguars who were picking 9th in that 04 draft so he could try and grab Roethlisberger. The Jaguars were high on Reggie Williams the WR and told Donahoe if Williams was there, they would not make the deal. Well he ended up being there, the Jags stayed put and took him and we lost out on Roethlisberger to the Steelers. The most frustrating part about that whole thing is Reggie Williams ended up being a terrible draft pick by the Jaguars and they ruined everything by picking a complete bust

 

i remember that draft, that story, and all of it.  we passed on wilfork as well, who thought he'd be a bill.  and we went out and drafted lee evans, who was good, but just obliterated that by trading the pick that drafted aaron rogers to get jp losmon (and another pick too!).

 

we are the organization who traded away the picks for mahommes and rogers, 4 of the past 5 years MVPs and multiple super bowl winners.

 

lol

[Buffalo03]

43 minutes ago, Enemarty said:

This is exactly why Beane wins the prize running away.  Beane wanted Allen and made multiple moves to go get his man, or at least get someone if Allen is off the board.  TD settled for a draft day scenario that was really out of his control.  And Whaley/Nix had a discussion over beers one night that getting a franchise quarterback would be a good idea.  I do give TD props for the Bledsoe trade - but not going to get Ben - and then moving to get JPL.  It all felt a bit lazy at the time and we payed the price.  Speaking of price...

 

I was fine with the Willis McGahee pick.  TD used the pick he got from Atlanta for Peerless (now that was highway robbery) on what we all considered a transformative player once he recovered.  Replace one solid offensive contributor with the Barkley of his day.  

When he missed out on Roethlisberger, he should have just kept the 1st round pick the next year. If he would have, Aaron Rodgers would have fell right into his lap. Moving up for Losman was a desperate move for a player that didn't deserve it. We had Bledsoe for at least another year anyway, he should have just hung onto it. That move set us back even more

[Mikie2times]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No. It's not data.

 

As I pointed out above, when you start pulling sleight-of-hand like eliminating Allen from Beane's score it's numbers pre-adjusted to show a chosen result.

Dude, you either A) didn't understand the first post or B) chose to ignore a lot of information. The graph provided includes Allen. The premise is to not only look at how it has gone with Allen but without and using hard data to do so. Data that is better than opinion but certainly not perfect. I have no history of posting negative things about Beane. I don't think he has been very good at the draft outside Allen, but this is the first I have said as much. I think TD arguably drafted better outside of the QB spot. I recognize you can't subtract the QB spot. Allen is one of the most important picks in our Franchises history. I also recognize Beane will have to do a lot better outside of that. That is all. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by KzooMike

[hondo in seattle]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

Ultimately, it comes down to whether you hit on a QB or not. Beane was able to do that and the others weren't. Simple as that.

 

Being a GM is a weird occupation.  All draft picks are possibilities - none of them are sure hits.  As a GM, you're rolling the die throughout draft weekend.  You're hoping you've done your evaluations thoroughly enough that your probabilities of scoring a hit are greater than the other GMs.  

 

And maybe you succeed at that.  But if you don't hit on your QB, you're screwed.  Owners don't evaluate your process.  And they don't care how many hits you get if one of them isn't a signal caller. 

 

Beane's got job security for a while because he hit on Allen.  Had he missed that one pick - fair or not - he'd probably be gone by now.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

20 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

No because Beane wasn't in Buffalo for the 2017 NFL Draft. 

Whaley and his Scouting Staff was here for 2017. 

 

He gets White, Dawkins, Hyde and Poyer. 

 

Beane was not here yet, and there was an interview when Whaley left in which McDermott said that it was Whaley's staff that ran Free Agency and the Draft that year.

 

 

Beane does not get credit for those players. 

 

Hyde and Poyer weren't draft picks.

 

In spite of some of the conspiracy theories around, Beane had nothing to do with the 2017 draft.  But also don't believe it was Whaley's call either on whom to select.  Sure McD publicly stated Whaley ran the the draft and free agency.  But that could very easily mean Whaley did all the selections, but only after McD told him whom he wanted.  Maybe WRT free agents, Whaley handled the financial side of it and took care of the negotiations.  But he was effectively reporting to McD.

[Thurman#1]

You also don't compare a guy's drafts without comparing where he was drafting. The Bills had worse picks under Beane than they did under either of the others, due to their success. More wins, lower picks.

 

The best way to compare what kind of chance each guy had at picking good players is almost certainly by comparing the values of their draft picks. It's possibly worth arguing which chart to use, and if someone wants to go through this exercise with some of the other charts, go to it.

 

I used the old Jimmy Johnson chart.

 

Compare the values of their first round picks only, and it's close but Donahoe's picks were more valuable, with Donahoe's five totalling 5270 and Beane's five 5100.

 

Look at all the picks and it's fairly different. (Note: I eliminated all fractions, so if the value was 21.6, I used 21.0 and I also eliminated all picks under 3.0 points (the whole 7th round) to make it easier and because numbers that small have very little effect.

 

Beane's picks value was 7966 points. Donahoe's 9168. That's a very significant difference, and the fact that Donahoe's picks were worth more and yet your AV values say that Beane's choices had quite a bit higher AV values ... it says a lot.

 

One caveat to my method. I used the picks they actually used to select people. So if one guy traded better and got more value that way, my method didn't show or account for that, though in fact it should be a major point in favor of the cleverer trader. Anyone who wants to go back and look at the original points before the trades would be doing interesting work that would be worth seeing.

 

But right now, Beane looks quite a bit more successful than Donahue.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Hyde and Poyer weren't draft picks.

 

In spite of some of the conspiracy theories around, Beane had nothing to do with the 2017 draft.  But also don't believe it was Whaley's call either on whom to select.  Sure McD publicly stated Whaley ran the the draft and free agency.  But that could very easily mean Whaley did all the selections, but only after McD told him whom he wanted.  Maybe WRT free agents, Whaley handled the financial side of it and took care of the negotiations.  But he was effectively reporting to McD.

Yes, I understand that Hyde and Poyer weren't draft picks. 

 

I included them because they commonly get credited to Beane working behind the scenes. 

 

I don't believe McDermott telling was Whaley who to select. Sure he passes along what his staff wants in a player for the given system, but I don't buy that a Defensive Coordinator and first year Head Coach who had been in the building for 4-months was also hand selecting players that he personally scouted, that Whaley and his scouts were puppets. 

 

Because if we're saying that the 2017 Draft showed that McDermott knew to pick Tre, Dawkins, Milano, then why hasn't there been more draft hits after 2018 1st Round? 

 

That's 6-years ago now. 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Again, some of the players were good prospects and good picks, but our dysfunctional culture due to poor coaches, FO, and owner robbed those kids of ever reaching their full potential.

 

 

Fair enough, but equally, a GM has a ton to say about changing the culture. Beane a bit less so than others, as McDermott was already here, but Beane has stressed character in the players he's brought in in the draft, FA and trades. That makes a huge difference.

 

People have argued that Whaley didn't have a choice with Rexy, but that's fairly speculative. If he'd said he didn't want to work with Marrone or Rex, the Pegulas would almost certainly gotten rid of either Whaley or the coach he didn't like. I'd argue it would have been the coach gone, as they like Whaley a lot till they got a load of McDermott.

 

Donahoe had his choice and went with Greggo and Mularkey, neither of whom looked to me like they changed the culture all that much.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

For sure, Beane has had to lean on free agency heavily to supplement the roster and it worked - getting Brown and Beasley really kick-started the Bills passing revival and understanding that more talent at WR makes a difference. 

 

However, Ed Oliver over Jeff Simmons and Dexter Lawrence sticks out here. 

 

Cody Ford over DK Metcalf. 

 

The complete whiff on Zack Moss. 

 

Terrell Bernard seems to be heading down that path. 

 

Outside of Allen, the best draft pick Beane has made is Edmunds. 

 

 

The team is outstanding compared to what it had become in the later-Ralph years. And Beane secured Diggs, never giving up on the idea. But I agree that his drafting is ordinary and now you're competing in the finest margins. 

 

 

Oliver is a very good player. Not worth his pick, but probably not all that far below it. And you can't compare one guy and say we could have had this guy or two behind him. If you start doing that, you can make about 98% of all NFL draft picks in history look bad.

 

Ford was awful, as was Moss. With Bernard, you simply don't know. You don't. I don't. Nobody does yet.

 

Any idea how many teams have made two really bad picks and one that's questionable in the last five years? I'm betting all of them. Unfortunately that's the way it goes.

 

You have to also look at all of the really good picks on top of that. (Davis, Knox, Teller, Taron Johnson and Edmunds. Probably Rousseau, Benford and Shakir as well.) And the many solid picks.

 

His drafting hasn't been average. It's been better than that. Not terrific, but quite good.

 

Again, you're quite right about there being some failures. That happens. How is 1st rounder Edwards-Helaire turning out for KC, when they could have had Jonathan Taylor or Tee Higgins there, or Trevon Diggs? (See how that works with cherry-picking the better picks taken behind them?)

 

Or more misses in bright Chiefs red like Khalen Saunders in the 3rd? Dorian O'Daniel in the 3rd? Kpassagnon in the 2nd? Breeland Speaks in the 2nd? Even the best teams miss on a few. It's how the draft works.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. 

Or maybe it goes to Mcdermott and he should be drafting?