Beane vs Whaley vs Donahoe Drafting

[chongli]

2 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Not sure why Donahoe drafted McGahee though. Henry had 1400 yards in 02 and 1300 yards in 03. 2700 yards in 2 seasons

 

He was a top 5 pick who fell due the injury. It was too tempting to pass on him. He wouldn't be ready until 2004 at the earliest, so TD still could use Henry for most of his contract (who became a RFA in 2005), then would have McGahee later on still on a rookie deal. Plus, we actually traded McGahee later for two 3rds and a 7th, which is not a bad return.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

These kinds of comparisons are difficult at best.  Drafting position plays a huge part (drafting first vs 32nd).  Drafting to a very good roster vs drafting to a train wreck can make the player's contribution look worse than it really was.  I look at longevity in the league as a fair indicator of a player's overall value.  Players move around the league for a variety of reasons but the good contributors seem to be able to catch on with other teams and have long careers.

 

For me, I only need to look at the win/loss record to know who has done the better job.

[bobobonators]

The argument of “if you take away Allen, Beane is just mediocre at drafting” is asinine. Even more so bc Allen wasn’t a cant miss prospect. 
 

If you take Apple away from Steve Jobs he was just a dude in a weird turtleneck.
 

We should remove life’s greatest accomplishments from some of the posters on here, and then tell them how average they really are. 

[Freddie's Dead]

8 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

 

Interesting analysis, thanks for doing this.  Just one small bone to pick.  HTF can that POS McGahee be that high in AV when he had a 0.0 for 2003?

[JohnNord]

9 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results.  I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent =  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

 

My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). 

 

-For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022  /  2021-2022

-For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017

-For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005

 

I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was.

 

These are the results:

 

 

If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. 

 

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

Beane=  Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

 

This premise is flawed from the start because omitting Allen from the equation is like saying “if you removed the Norwood FG, Marv Levy is a Super Bowl winning coach.” 🙄

Not all of these draft picks are of equal value.  The #1 priority of most GM’s is to find a franchise QB so IMO it’s unfair to remove the most important pick from his resume.  Also Whaley and Donahue whiffed baldly on QB, so that should also be factored into their score.  
 

Another flaw is assigning the 2017 draft class to Whaley.  It was reported that while Whaley and staff did scoring, McDermott set the board and made the picks so I don’t feel it’s fair to attribute that players to Whaley.  
 

The other point is that the book has not been written on all of Beane’s picks.  There’s a chance Davis, Oliver, Rosseau and Brown (ugh) could have good years.  If that happens, Beane’s drafts look a lot better.  

Aside from this, if your main point was that Beane has been slightly better than Donahoe and that Whaley’s draft were really bad, I would agree.  Of course the biggest difference is that he nailed the only pick that matters as a GM, whereas Donahoe did not.

 

There are plenty of area where you can find fault with Beane as a GM but fortunately the big gambles he has taken on Josh have paid off and succeeded

Edited April 19, 2023 by JohnNord

[JohnNord]

9 hours ago, MJS said:

Ultimately, it comes down to whether you hit on a QB or not. Beane was able to do that and the others weren't. Simple as that.

The only draft picks that matters in a rebuild 

[Mikie2times]

44 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

The argument of “if you take away Allen, Beane is just mediocre at drafting” is asinine. Even more so bc Allen wasn’t a cant miss prospect. 
 

If you take Apple away from Steve Jobs he was just a dude in a weird turtleneck.
 

We should remove life’s greatest accomplishments from some of the posters on here, and then tell them how average they really are. 

It was one pick, not a company and lifetime of work. One pick. Further, I'm not even downgrading Beane, it's the defensive Nancy types like you that can't even discuss what is obvious. Dude hasn't drafted well outside of Allen. Pretty factual. It's really hurt us that he hasn't. Also pretty factual. Allen being bigger than it all, also factual but not the point of this thread. That much is pretty obvious I would think. I also think it's a tad bit crazy to think Beane didn't have an element of luck in the drafting of Allen. Even if that was always his guy, hitting on any QB is not an exact science and every GM needs some luck in that process. If you don't agree with that, do you honestly think Beane would hit on every franchise QB he swung at? Hell even 50%?

 

49 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Interesting analysis, thanks for doing this.  Just one small bone to pick.  HTF can that POS McGahee be that high in AV when he had a 0.0 for 2003?

It's only looking at performance of all draft picks in 2004 and 2005. 

 

13 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

This premise is flawed from the start because omitting Allen from the equation is like saying “if you removed the Norwood FG, Marv Levy is a Super Bowl winning coach.” 🙄

Not all of these draft picks are of equal value.  The #1 priority of most GM’s is to find a franchise QB so IMO it’s unfair to remove the most important pick from his resume.  Also Whaley and Donahue whiffed baldly on QB, so that should also be factored into their score.  
 

Another flaw is assigning the 2017 draft class to Whaley.  It was reported that while Whaley and staff did scoring, McDermott set the board and made the picks so I don’t feel it’s fair to attribute that players to Whaley.  
 

The other point is that the book has not been written on all of Beane’s picks.  There’s a chance Davis, Oliver, Rosseau and Brown (ugh) could have good years.  If that happens, Beane’s drafts look a lot better.  

Aside from this, if your main point was that Beane has been slightly better than Donahoe and that Whaley’s draft were really bad, I would agree.  Of course the biggest difference is that he nailed the only pick that matters as a GM, whereas Donahoe did not.

 

There are plenty of area where you can find fault with Beane as a GM but fortunately the big gambles he has taken on Josh have paid off and succeeded

Nobody, including me said it was perfect and I even said the 2017 draft class was a bit of a nomad class, but for how the data is evaluated in this, it works pretty well. The 2017 draft picks didn't make up much scoring and including them allowed me to give Saint Doug one more year of evaluation which was much more rooted in the previous 4 years than 2017.

 

I didn't remove Allen. In the graph you see the performance with Allen. Is the statement true that outside Allen Beane has not drafted better than Donahoe? I would say it's true. Determining if that question is relevant or not is up to who is asking the question. I think it is very relevant given we won't be drafting a franchise QB again, we need to start hitting on our draft choices, and Beane hasn't shown a high ability to do so. So if you don't think it's relevant that Beane has not done well in drafting players that will be his targets for his remaining time as GM of this team that's fine. It also has no bearing that Beans draft picks still have plenty of years left. This data captures the exact same duration of time for every player in it. It does not give any consideration to anything past the maximum of 5 years in the league and that would only be the case if the player was drafted in the first year of the sample.   

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Not sure why Donahoe drafted McGahee though. Henry had 1400 yards in 02 and 1300 yards in 03. 2700 yards in 2 seasons

He probably passed a Quik Fill and saw Henry kanoodling with a 14 year old girl 

[Chuck Schick]

9 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The 02 draft was not awful at all. It was average to above average. Denney, Reed, Wire and Williams.

Yuck

[Mr. WEO]

Beane-Allen/(whaley+Nix)=infinity

[Bill from NYC]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

In 2003 he took McGee, Kelsey, McGahee and Crowell. That was also a solid draft.

Ya think? When we took RB Magahee in round 1 he was all but crippled. We had to wait more than a full season for him to play, and this behind an OL that sucked. 

 

Eric Steinbach was sitting there waiting for the Bills to draft. He of course wound up being a great LG for many years and was able to fill in at LT in a pinch. 

This is something that I would expect from McDermott, the true power in the Bills management. In the same circumstance McDermott would also certainly pass on the blocker but would go for a defensive back before a running back given the rule changes. 

 

The Bills neglect of the OL is nothing new. It is a decades old curse.

7 hours ago, chongli said:

 

He was a top 5 pick who fell due the injury. It was too tempting to pass on him. He wouldn't be ready until 2004 at the earliest, so TD still could use Henry for most of his contract (who became a RFA in 2005), then would have McGahee later on still on a rookie deal. Plus, we actually traded McGahee later for two 3rds and a 7th, which is not a bad return.

Sounds like a great way to build an NFL team. 🙄

Edited April 19, 2023 by Bill from NYC

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

No Milano in Beane’s top 5?

Right? Arguably the best player on the defense and certified All-Pro. And you can’t leave Allen out of the conversation considering the huge amount of draft capital (who otherwise could’ve given Beane more chances to acquire talent) used to move up and the fact that the pick actually hit for the most important position. Diggs = 1st Round pick in my book. Another massive hit. Some of these so called “busts” still haven’t even fully developed yet. Rousseau, Basham, Elam, etc could all become great. OP should make this list a few years from now. It’s too early

[Manther]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Not sure why Donahoe drafted McGahee though. Henry had 1400 yards in 02 and 1300 yards in 03. 2700 yards in 2 seasons

Totally agree and especially with a year of rehab as well.  However, RB was more valued then, but, I still don't get it and still don't like it.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Right? Arguably the best player on the defense and certified All-Pro. And you can’t leave Allen out of the conversation considering the huge amount of draft capital (who otherwise could’ve given Beane more chances to acquire talent) used to move up and the fact that the pick actually hit for the most important position. Diggs = 1st Round pick in my book. Another massive hit. Some of these so called “busts” still haven’t even fully developed yet. Rousseau, Basham, Elam, etc could all become great. OP should make this list a few years from now. It’s too early

It's reviewing the players at the exact same progression in time for each GM and Milano was not drafted by Beane. You don't have to give him to Whaley by any stretch and he factors very little in how this was done, but he 100% does not belong to Beane. 

[Manther]

9 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The 02 draft was not awful at all. It was average to above average. Denney, Reed, Wire and Williams.

Denney and Reed were JAGs.  Wire was a useful late round pick.  Which Williams?  Was that Mike Williams at #4?  

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Manther said:

Totally agree and especially with a year of rehab as well.  However, RB was more valued then, but, I still don't get it and still don't like it.

It was one of the more puzzling picks in our Franchises history. Henry declined quickly, but he was playing reasonably well. Certainly not poor enough to welcome an injured RB on a team with a lot of holes. 

[uticaclub]

9 hours ago, KzooMike said:

but Beane has won the two biggest areas, QB and Coach. 

He didn't hire the coach. McD is the reason Beane got hired. If you like Beane is a positive, if you don't it's a negative for McD.

[Dan Darragh]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

He tried. I read something one time about how he had a deal in place with the Jaguars who were picking 9th in that 04 draft so he could try and grab Roethlisberger. The Jaguars were high on Reggie Williams the WR and told Donahoe if Williams was there, they would not make the deal. Well he ended up being there, the Jags stayed put and took him and we lost out on Roethlisberger to the Steelers. The most frustrating part about that whole thing is Reggie Williams ended up being a terrible draft pick by the Jaguars and they ruined everything by picking a complete bust

If they Bills had drafted Roethlisberger they'd have ruined him just like they did with all their other QBs in that era. Ben is lucky he went to Pittsburgh.

[78thealltimegreat]

One thing I will say in Whaleys defense if he knew he had a QB like Allen he would have bent over backwards to get him skill talent.
Beane and his head coach are defense first guys they kinda use the Green Bay Packers model under Aaron Rogers the last 5 years. 

[Manther]

5 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

If they Bills had drafted Roethlisberger they'd have ruined him just like they did with all their other QBs in that era. Ben is lucky he went to Pittsburgh.

I am not confident that is the case.  It might have been a good run with Donahoe if the Bills traded up and drafted Rotho something.  It would have changed the trajectory with the butterfly effect.  Donahoe had some good qualities.  Ralph Wilson would have trusted him more if we had Roethlisberger and had more success.

 

In all reality, if we drafted Roethlisberger the last 20 years would be totally different.