Beane vs Whaley vs Donahoe Drafting

[Mikie2times]

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results.  I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent =  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

 

My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). 

 

-For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022  /  2021-2022

-For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017

-For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005

 

I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was.

 

These are the results:

 

 

If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. 

 

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

Beane=  Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by KzooMike

[Einstein]

This should get the homers riled up

[strive_for_five_guy]

No Milano in Beane’s top 5?

[Buffalo03]

It's Donahoe, not Donahue and his first draft was awesome 

 

2001

RD 1. Nate Clements

RD 2. Aaron Schobel

RD 2. Travis Henry 

 

Were his first 3 draft picks. It went downhill after that though 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Buffalo03

[Billl]

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

No Milano in Beane’s top 5?

No Jerry Rice either.

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

It's Donahoe, not Donahue and his first draft was awesome 

 

Nate Clements

Aaron Schobel

And Travis Henry 

 

We're his first 3 draft picks. It went downhill after that though 

 

In 2003 he took McGee, Kelsey, McGahee and Crowell. That was also a solid draft.

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

No Milano in Beane’s top 5?

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. 

 

8 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

It's Donahoe, not Donahue and his first draft was awesome 

 

2001

RD 1. Nate Clements

RD 2. Aaron Schobel

RD 3. Travis Henry 

 

Were his first 3 draft picks. It went downhill after that though 

Dumb error, I corrected it outside the graph, thank you. 

 

I wouldn't go that far. McGee was outstanding, McGahee was a wasted pick, but a decent player. Lee Evans was also very good. Then you have the start of our high motor dynasty which could have been worse.  I mean is Schobel not currently better than any of our DL picks? 

Edited April 19, 2023 by KzooMike

[Buffalo03]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

In 2003 he took McGee, Kelsey, McGahee and Crowell. That was also a solid draft.

2002 was mediocre and his 04 and 05 drafts were terrible. But he did have 2 good drafts especially that 01 draft

[Einstein]

Just now, Buffalo03 said:

2002 was mediocre and his 04 and 05 drafts were terrible. But he did have 2 good drafts especially that 01 draft

 

Sounds like Beane.

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. 

 

Dumb error, I corrected it outside the graph, thank you. 

 

I wouldn't go that far. McGee was outstanding, McGahee was a wasted pick, but a decent player. Lee Evans was also very good. Then you have the start of our high motor dynasty which could have been worse.  I mean is Schobel not currently better than any of our DL picks? 

He did have another decent draft in 03 McGahee, Kelsay, Angelo Crowell and Terrence McGee were good but his 02, 04 and 05 drafts were awful. Josh Reed was ok, Lee Evans was good but outside of those picks, the other drafts were failures

[Draconator]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Sounds like Beane.

But did Whaley or Dona-hoe have Kyle Brandt eat a 3 day old Chicken Wing live at the draft? 

Beane wins.

[GETTOTHE50]

wow beane was great at the first draft but average in the last couple so surprised.

 

its not like he had more picks and early draft position in the first draft as compared to the rest.

 

that has nothing to do with it.

 

[MJS]

Ultimately, it comes down to whether you hit on a QB or not. Beane was able to do that and the others weren't. Simple as that.

[Richard Noggin]

17 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

 

If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. 

 

Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned:

Beane=  Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds

Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨

Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel 

 

 

Love the post as both a thought exercise and as an actual attempt to compare different regimes' drafting. Thanks for posting.

 

As for the bolded, however, why would you "subtract Allen from Beane"?! He got the most important pick right, the first time. And it wasn't a top-2 or even top-5 consensus elite prospect. It was a projection. And they were arguably the only team that got it right (long-term) that year. 

 

Before I hit "submit reply" I'm realizing you are only offering that Allen-less comparison to show that Beane is still average otherwise, and not some Whaley-esque disaster.

[Buffalo03]

Not sure why Donahoe drafted McGahee though. Henry had 1400 yards in 02 and 1300 yards in 03. 2700 yards in 2 seasons

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Ultimately, it comes down to whether you hit on a QB or not. Beane was able to do that and the others weren't. Simple as that.

Yup.  If Donahoe trades up to get Big Ben rather than Losman, the history books would be entirely different.

[strive_for_five_guy]

16 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. 

My bad, forgot he was drafted way back then.

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

He did have another decent draft in 03 McGahee, Kelsay, Angelo Crowell and Terrence McGee were good but his 02, 04 and 05 drafts were awful. Josh Reed was ok, Lee Evans was good but outside of those picks, the other drafts were failures

 

The 02 draft was not awful at all. It was average to above average. Denney, Reed, Wire and Williams.

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yup.  If Donahoe trades up to get Big Ben rather than Losman, the history books would be entirely different.

I wanna puke over that one. Hell, I remember exactly where I was when Ben was drafted. 😕

11 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Love the post as both a thought exercise and as an actual attempt to compare different regimes' drafting. Thanks for posting.

 

As for the bolded, however, why would you "subtract Allen from Beane"?! He got the most important pick right, the first time. And it wasn't a top-2 or even top-5 consensus elite prospect. It was a projection. And they were arguably the only team that got it right (long-term) that year. 

 

Before I hit "submit reply" I'm realizing you are only offering that Allen-less comparison to show that Beane is still average otherwise, and not some Whaley-esque disaster.

I don’t disagree with this. I think the thought of a single draft pick basically ceiling the fate of an entire body of work is a little crazy to me, but it’s the way it is. It didn’t go TD’s way in this area and history will never be kind as a result. In broader terms I don’t think the ability of the two is very different. I think TD has arguably out drafted him, at the least it’s neutral, and he likely did better in FA, but Beane has won the two biggest areas, QB and Coach. 

15 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Not sure why Donahoe drafted McGahee though. Henry had 1400 yards in 02 and 1300 yards in 03. 2700 yards in 2 seasons

Henry sure did decline though didn’t he? But ya. That will always be puzzling. Was really fun at first though.  

[Buffalo03]

23 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yup.  If Donahoe trades up to get Big Ben rather than Losman, the history books would be entirely different.

He tried. I read something one time about how he had a deal in place with the Jaguars who were picking 9th in that 04 draft so he could try and grab Roethlisberger. The Jaguars were high on Reggie Williams the WR and told Donahoe if Williams was there, they would not make the deal. Well he ended up being there, the Jags stayed put and took him and we lost out on Roethlisberger to the Steelers. The most frustrating part about that whole thing is Reggie Williams ended up being a terrible draft pick by the Jaguars and they ruined everything by picking a complete bust

Edited April 19, 2023 by Buffalo03