Your WR Draft Board for the Bills

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

All of this is really good....except Tank Dell.  He's not a gimmick WR.  His elusiveness and agility on route running is ridiculous. 

He has seasons of 90 and 100 receptions with 29 TDs over the last 2 years...the most in college football
 

That said, I don't know if the Bills will want to take him.  They just signed Harty who is also under  5'9

 

He is SOOO small. I really like his game. But he will get bludgeoned over the middle in the NFL where he did a lot of his best work in college. He had clearly bulked for the combine (which affected his 40 time because he is faster than 4.49) and even with bulking he was 165lbs. I think he probably plays at least 5lbs lighter than that. I think he will have to be used a LOT behind the line of scrimmage. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If I am Brandon Beane and I am starting from the assumption that Josh Allen is my QB (obviously) and Ken Dorsey is my OC.

 

Round 1

1. Jordan Addison - the best route runner in the class and the Bills tend to value route running above all other WR traits.

 

2. JSN - highest floor. He is the starting slot day 1 and is going to produce as a rookie so long as he stays healthy. I think he has enough flex to play some outside receiver down the road.

 

3. Quentin Johnston - it hasn't been their MO at receiver particularly but we know Beane likes toolsy traits guys otherwise. Little disappointed in his 40 time and hands are a huge question mark.

 

If any of those 3 are there at #27 I'd take them almost regardless of who else is on the board. 

 

4. Jalin Hyatt - only if the board falls a certain way and only if a trade back isn't there. He is 1 dimensional but the deep ball is the most valuable of single dimensions and I think the thing that is getting missed a bit by his critics is how well he tracks the deep ball. Not many vertical only receiver prospects I have seen that track it as well as him.

 

Round 2

5. Josh Downs - limited to a slot only but he is a plug and play starting slot for the next 4 years and possibly a second contract too.

 

Again if he is on the board at #59 and we haven't gone receiver round 1 I'd draft no matter what (he likely isn't though).

 

6. Rashee Rice - only if the board fell a certain way but he is the best route runner of the "2nd tier" guys and as above the Bills value that. 

 

7. Cedric Tillman - have him above Rice on my general board but switch them as a Bills fit. He is a bit Gabe Davis esque to me. Not a big separator but probably more elusive ball in hand (and more reliable hands). 

 

Round 3 

8. Xavier Hutchinson - again it's route running. He is the best route runner of that tier of guys and while he doesn't pop on tape he is reliable. 

 

9. Marvin Mims - he might higher on their board because he has some speed and big play threat but he drops too many balls and I think they might have had their fill of that.

 

10. AT Perry - decent route runner, uses leverage well. Again doesn't jump off the tape but has some upside. 

 

11. Tank Dell - not sure if they'd take him in the 3rd but he is a gimmick receiver who can do some of the old Isaiah McKenzie stuff and has some return value.

 

 

 

 

Only changes I'd make is that Mingo would be #5 on my list and AT Perry would be off entirely.   After the round 1 guys I pretty much bounce up to early 3rd round or later values but I think you are right that those round 2 guys go round 2. 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Quentin Johnston

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Zay Flowers

Jordan Addison

Jalin Hyatt

Josh Downs

Nathaniel "Tank" Dell

 

I'd only be interested in the Top 4 in the 1st Round. Quentin Johnston is the best fit as far as size, speed, and outside playability.

 

My hope is that the WR's fall as a whole and that teams go with JSN and Zay first and that Johnston is within striking range of a trade up that wouldn't require much compensation.

Pretty much this. I couldn’t care which WR it is, but if we want one, we’re probably going to have to trade up-  20-26: seattle, LAC, Balt, Viking, jags, giants, cowboys are all in the market for a playmaking WR or TE (jags not taking a WR, but they could take Kincaid or Mayer).

[CaptnCoke11]

I think Zay Flowers is the perfect fit.  Elite separation and lateral agility.  Great route runner and really good hands.  The size is the only negative.  

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Only changes I'd make is that Mingo would be #5 on my list and AT Perry would be off entirely.   After the round 1 guys I pretty much bounce up to early 3rd round or later values but I think you are right that those round 2 guys go round 2. 

 

Meh I don't particularly like Mingo. I see too many balls end up as contested catches even when he has a beat on his defender initially. He is a 4th rounder for me though I think he will go before that. 

 

To be clear of the "Round 2" guys Downs is the only one I have a "round 2" grade on. Tillman and Rice are high round 3 grades but because we are about half a round short in terms of 1st rounders every other round gets bumped up until round four.... the high 2nd round grades will likely go round 1, the high round 3 grades will likely go round 2. 

 

That was more the guys I'd be willing to take in each round than where I grade them. 

3 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think Zay Flowers is the perfect fit.  Elite separation and lateral agility.  Great route runner and really good hands.  The size is the only negative.  

 

And the alligator arms. 

[Nephilim17]

It seems like Downs and Flowers are both explosive smaller receivers. But as Flowers has the really short arms. I caught the tail end of a convo between Chris Brown and some PFF guy (I think) who said that no one in the NFL has ever had a 1000-yard season with a wingspan as small as Flowers. That was concerning, hoping that a guy can buck a trend that goes back to the beginning of these measurements.

 

I've read that Downs is very good in traffic so that seems to be a plus for him (and versus Flowers). Downs sounds like he gives you a lot of what Flowers does, without that concern, and is likely to go later. 

 

Is there any reason to strongly consider Flowers over Downs given his very short arms?

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Meh I don't particularly like Mingo. I see too many balls end up as contested catches even when he has a beat on his defender initially. He is a 4th rounder for me though I think he will go before that. 

 

To be clear of the "Round 2" guys Downs is the only one I have a "round 2" grade on. Tillman and Rice are high round 3 grades but because we are about half a round short in terms of 1st rounders every other round gets bumped up until round four.... the high 2nd round grades will likely go round 1, the high round 3 grades will likely go round 2. 

 

That was more the guys I'd be willing to take in each round than where I grade them. 

 

And the alligator arms. 

Non issue for the style he plays.  He’s not going to be involved in a lot of contested situations 

[Dan in Owego]

Mingo will be gone somewhere later 1st or early second. 

[Bills Bud]

Quinten Johnston and A.T. Perry the only ones I'm interested in, or getting Hopkins or Evans from a trade would be even better.

[NeverOutNick]

I’m doing based on Tiers with no rounds specific at this time because outside of Zay I’m not sure there is a real round 1 receiver in this class but man there are a plethora of guys with day 2 grades

 

Tier 1

 

1. Zay Flowers - SPECIAL! He is the only WR in this draft i absolutely love day 1. I don’t care about his size and catch radius but if he was built like Q Johnston he would be a top 10 pick. He’s the only WR in my top 5 who hasn’t had a top QB who will be drafted in the NFL throwing him the ball AND HE STILL put up huge stats. Makes playing WR look easy and can play anywhere on the field because he’s got such a knack for getting separation underneath and vertically and like I’ve said in other threads he is a human algorithm for getting the absolute most yards after catch 

 

Tier 2

 

2. Quentin Johnston - I like how he boxes out defenders with his long frame. I want him to be Andre Johnson but he’s not. I don’t know if he’s got that dawg in him but at worst he’s a poor man’s Higgins. But because of his potential and fit to the Bills offense, he’s the only other WR outside of flowers I would take over one of the top 5 O lineman in this class

 

3. Jordan Addison - I like his has hands better than JSN and he plays the sidelines very well with a good feel for out of bounds. I think he’s got better upside then JSN because he can play multiple positions and has more game changing ability but right now he’s not the natural separator that JSN is with his route running (but he’s still very good at it), and he needs to get stronger/thicker to hold up in the NFL. The more I watch the more I like him and would honestly take him in the draft over JSN but I’m not trading up for either unless all it takes is a 4th or later

 

4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Plug and play but is there upside? The route running and short area quickness is exceptional because he creates alot of space and I believe he can occasionally play not just in the slot but he doesn’t wow me. He’s a solid WR but clearly has never been the best one throughout his career at OSU with Wilson, Olave and Harrison showing that #1 game changing WR potential 

 

5. Josh Downs - Natural slot WR with very good return instincts. Very sure handed and reliable. He’s a quicker Cole Beasley with ability to get downfield and make the contested catch. Earns the trust of his QB because he plays off his QB (Bease)

 

Tier 3 

 

6. Jonathan Mingo - Most potential in this draft class to be a star #1 WR but can a team develop him. Catch radius and contested catches look easy with him. Great athlete and has that hunger that I want to see out of Q Johnston. He’s already a good blocker and has some Deebo in him with his screen game but doesn’t look like a natural route runner. Hopefully this can be taught to him because he has amazing upside

 

7. Michael Wilson - Another WR I’d love the Bills to take a chance on round 3 or later if there. I think a lot of teams will see his upside, even though he didn’t have a lot of production because of injury and scheme. He killed at the senior bowl. He is very quick off the line of scrimmage, high points the catch with ease, has a natural route running ability that if healthy and if he wants it will only get better and is one of the few wide receivers in this class who could develop into a number one wide receiver on a team. 
 

8. Marvin Mims - Take the top of vertical threat and dynamic punt returner. He’s fast with good hands when focused but not great in press coverage and doesn’t run crisp routes. Needs some work on fine tuning his craft but as a deep threat he’s impressive and for a smaller guy he can high point the ball well. He’s another one where the more you watch the more you like the potential but needs good coaching to be a complete WR. 
 

9. Jalin Hyatt - Explosive vertical threat but for me that’s all he is right now. He fit the offense he was in Tennessee. Where’s the route tree? The contested catches? You can’t teach speed but right now he’s being overvalued by mock drafters and is more of a 3rd round pick as a taller Mike Wallace coming out of college. He’s higher on my list than others because of his speed and ability to make the deep ball catch look easy

 

10. A.T. Perry - Big WR, who the more I watched the more I moved him up the board because even though he doesn’t pop on film like I want a big guy too he doesn’t have a lot of flaws on film either. He also is a good route runner who works on his craft and that makes him have a higher ceiling than some of these “potential” guys. He’s a natural hands catcher and for a big guy he runs well

 

Tier 4

 

11. Kayshon Boutte - Biggest boom/bust guy in the draft as he has character and injury concerns but the star potential is there. He show lapses in concentration which is concerning but when the ball is in his hands he’s special. He’s fearless and a great RAC guy and even though he may be off a lot of teams boards I think he is another of a small group of WRs that could be a #1 WR on an NFL team. Because of the above mentioned risks I wouldn’t take a chance until Day 3 but he’s worth the risk at that point 

 

12. Jayden Reed - some dudes you just watch and like. He’s not the best athlete or very big but he’s a playmaker and he just feels like a Buffalo guy. He’s a versatile route runner with good feet but doesn’t get the separation like some of the top guys. He has a grittiness about him that feels blue collar and fights for the ball. He has more body catches than you’d like to see but tracks the ball very well in the air. 
 

13. Charlie Jones - Started his college career in Buffalo so I already liked him from the get go. Fearless and determined. He finds the soft spots in coverage and fights for every yard. He’s not the greatest athlete but makes up for it by playing hard and tough. Not the softest hands but catches the ball well and I like the way he runs routes. Not as smooth as some of the top guys. He’s a really good day 3 WR I’d be happy to have in Buffalo because he’ll pick up the dirty yards.
 

14. Xavier Hutchinson - He’s another guy I just like watching. He’s had some drops and that’s concerning but I like how he bodies out defenders to make the catch. He’s a good route runner but doesn’t separate as much as you’d like but because he’s bigger he always puts himself in a winnable situation to make the catch. He’s not going to wow you in any one thing but he’s just a good WR and if he can clean up his drop rate will make a QB very happy and live up to his nickname “clutch”ison 
 

15. Parker Washington - First off he’s built like a running back. Looks like he’s got short tree trunks for thighs. He’s fun to watch and I love how he snatches the ball out of the air. I don’t think his ceiling is that high but he’s dependable and sure handed and that will make him last in the NFL as a slot guy for a long time 

 

16. Tank Dell - I may be lower on him than I should be…For a little guy I expect him to be faster but what he lacks in straight line speed he makes up for in shiftiness. He’s actually a pretty decent route runner and a natural hands catcher. He doesn’t have the quickness and not as sure handed as Josh downs is but as far as slot only fits he’s not far behind Josh. 
 

17. Tyler Scott - Looks faster on field than his 40 time. Another very good vertical threat who needs refinement with his route tree and although I like his quickness more than some of the WRs ahead of him, he drops too many balls for me to have him higher. He has a higher ceiling than some of the guys ahead of him because he plays so fast and can contribute early on if a team uses him as a gadget player 

 

18. Cedric Tillman - He reminds me of a taller and less athletic Gabe Davis. Gabe is a better deep threat as well. He’s a solid #3 WR with ability to get to a #2 and will be a solid NFL WR because of his effort. He’s a willing blocker and consistently puts his body on the line to make a play because he is not a great athlete with a high ceiling but is a fighter and I like that even if the upside isn’t there
 

19. Rashee Rice - He’s another of a small amount of tall WRs in this class and loves to show off his athleticism by making the jump ball catch sometimes jumping when he doesn’t need to but he’s a big play WR with good RAC ability. He's also a big effort guy in every aspect of his game which I love but he’s not a smooth route runner and he’s not as strong as some of the other big WRs like Mingo and Tillman but the main reason he’s so low is because he drops too many balls. If a WR can’t catch consistently it’s a big knock down the board for me

 

20. Andrei Iosivas - not a lot of film on this guy but from the limited amount I’ve seen on him, I see a WR who runs smooth for such a big target. He’s got some game speed and nice hands and is probably worth the gamble to a team that has a year or 2 to develop him into something. He could be a Diamond in the rough with how much athletic ability he has and looks like he has some nice hands on him where he’s not making body catches 

 

I may have to dig deeper into some of the guys that didn’t make the cut but that’s a solid first take. Enjoy

Edited April 20, 2023 by NeverOutNick

[NeverOutNick]

On 4/18/2023 at 1:35 AM, GunnerBill said:

If I am Brandon Beane and I am starting from the assumption that Josh Allen is my QB (obviously) and Ken Dorsey is my OC.

 

Round 1

1. Jordan Addison - the best route runner in the class and the Bills tend to value route running above all other WR traits.

 

2. JSN - highest floor. He is the starting slot day 1 and is going to produce as a rookie so long as he stays healthy. I think he has enough flex to play some outside receiver down the road.

 

3. Quentin Johnston - it hasn't been their MO at receiver particularly but we know Beane likes toolsy traits guys otherwise. Little disappointed in his 40 time and hands are a huge question mark.

 

If any of those 3 are there at #27 I'd take them almost regardless of who else is on the board. 

 

4. Jalin Hyatt - only if the board falls a certain way and only if a trade back isn't there. He is 1 dimensional but the deep ball is the most valuable of single dimensions and I think the thing that is getting missed a bit by his critics is how well he tracks the deep ball. Not many vertical only receiver prospects I have seen that track it as well as him.

 

Round 2

5. Josh Downs - limited to a slot only but he is a plug and play starting slot for the next 4 years and possibly a second contract too.

 

Again if he is on the board at #59 and we haven't gone receiver round 1 I'd draft no matter what (he likely isn't though).

 

6. Rashee Rice - only if the board fell a certain way but he is the best route runner of the "2nd tier" guys and as above the Bills value that. 

 

7. Cedric Tillman - have him above Rice on my general board but switch them as a Bills fit. He is a bit Gabe Davis esque to me. Not a big separator but probably more elusive ball in hand (and more reliable hands). 

 

Round 3 

8. Xavier Hutchinson - again it's route running. He is the best route runner of that tier of guys and while he doesn't pop on tape he is reliable. 

 

9. Marvin Mims - he might higher on their board because he has some speed and big play threat but he drops too many balls and I think they might have had their fill of that.

 

10. AT Perry - decent route runner, uses leverage well. Again doesn't jump off the tape but has some upside. 

 

11. Tank Dell - not sure if they'd take him in the 3rd but he is a gimmick receiver who can do some of the old Isaiah McKenzie stuff and has some return value.

 

 

I’m just looking through all the other peoples rankings and noticed that me and you think pretty similar on Tillman and Hutchinson. So we’re not too far off even though you hate my boy Zay lol

[John from Riverside]

On 4/18/2023 at 7:49 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

He is SOOO small. I really like his game. But he will get bludgeoned over the middle in the NFL where he did a lot of his best work in college. He had clearly bulked for the combine (which affected his 40 time because he is faster than 4.49) and even with bulking he was 165lbs. I think he probably plays at least 5lbs lighter than that. I think he will have to be used a LOT behind the line of scrimmage. 

I just think we have that rule filled with Deonte Harti

 

Can we get a big physical receiver that can also separate a little bit.

[TailgateChef]

Parker Washington.  I see some Hines Ward.  Tough, versatile, great hands.  Hope he makes it to #130 because of the so-so athleticism.

 

[Alphadawg7]

No need to discuss the guys in round 1 and 2, this is a pretty good consensus in no particular order who those guys are.  BUT, what if we don't land a WR in the first 2 rounds nor land a vet like say Hopkins?

 

They guy IMHO that is not getting enough discussion and has the potential to be a day 3 steal is:  KAYSHON BOUTTE, LSU

 

Coming into this past season, he was expected to be a first round pick, maybe the best WR in the class.  He was coming off a serious injury and this season wasn't quite what it needed to be.  But all the skills and star potential are still there, and coming into the NFL now a full year removed from that serious ankle injury, this guy has  a ton of potential to be the steal of the draft.  

 

Granted, I know there are some rumblings in terms of character concerns, but honestly coming in and learning from someone like Diggs could be the ideal fit for him.  I have total confidence in our locker room, and even more confidence in that WR room that the right environment is in place for this kid to excel.  I would take him as early as the third and would run to the podium if he was there in the 4th or 5th rounds.  I hate to use this comparison both because this guy is one of the best to ever do it and also an absolute nut job...but there are times watching him on film that his game reminds me a bit of Antonio Brown.

 

He is the definition of a boom or bust prospect, but I think the potential reward out weights the risk if we don't land a WR earlier in the draft or say via trade like Hopkins.  

[NewEra]

18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I just think we have that rule filled with Deonte Harti

 

Can we get a big physical receiver that can also separate a little bit.

A big physical receiver that can also separate?  In this draft?  🤣 

 

next year maybe

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No need to discuss the guys in round 1 and 2, this is a pretty good consensus in no particular order who those guys are.  BUT, what if we don't land a WR in the first 2 rounds nor land a vet like say Hopkins?

 

They guy IMHO that is not getting enough discussion and has the potential to be a day 3 steal is:  KAYSHON BOUTTE, LSU

 

Coming into this past season, he was expected to be a first round pick, maybe the best WR in the class.  He was coming off a serious injury and this season wasn't quite what it needed to be.  But all the skills and star potential are still there, and coming into the NFL now a full year removed from that serious ankle injury, this guy has  a ton of potential to be the steal of the draft.  

 

Granted, I know there are some rumblings in terms of character concerns, but honestly coming in and learning from someone like Diggs could be the ideal fit for him.  I have total confidence in our locker room, and even more confidence in that WR room that the right environment is in place for this kid to excel.  I would take him as early as the third and would run to the podium if he was there in the 4th or 5th rounds.  I hate to use this comparison both because this guy is one of the best to ever do it and also an absolute nut job...but there are times watching him on film that his game reminds me a bit of Antonio Brown.

 

He is the definition of a boom or bust prospect, but I think the potential reward out weights the risk if we don't land a WR earlier in the draft or say via trade like Hopkins.  

It’s anyone guess where he gets drafted but I don’t think he slips to our pick in rd 3.  Jmo.  
 

love the post and I agree.  2nd-3rd rd is where we’ll probably draft our WR

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

A big physical receiver that can also separate?  In this draft?  🤣 

 

next year maybe

It’s anyone guess where he gets drafted but I don’t think he slips to our pick in rd 3.  Jmo.  
 

love the post and I agree.  2nd-3rd rd is where we’ll probably draft our WR

 

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if someone took him late 2nd or in the 3rd before our pick.  I am actually concerned he ends up a KC Chief because he would be a great value add for them there and in a great place for him too.  

 

Where he will actually go is a puzzle...some people seem to forget he exists and I don't even see him in their top 15 or even top 20 WR rankings.  Then I see others who have him as high as 7 or 8 on the WR draft rankings.  Talk he could go in the 2nd-3rd and others talking like he will last until the 5th.

 

It kind of reminds me of Shakir last year...not for the same reasons, just on the wide range of where he could go.  There was talk he was a 2nd rounder, and others saw him in 3rd or 4th round.  He obviously lasted to us and got him in the 5th.  I personally thought back end of 2nd to mid 3rd was where he would probably go, I liked him a lot last year and was stoked when I came back to find us taking him in the 5th!  I also badly wanted Woolen in the 2nd (if we had not drafted Elam) and actually didn't think Woolen would last until our pick in the 2nd...so I was actually more stunned to see Woolen on the board still in the 5th too.  Most mocks I saw had him as a second rounder leading up to the draft and he was my favorite CB outside the top few guys in the whole draft. 

 

I badly wanted Russel Wilson that year he came out and was pounding the table for him in 2nd...then when he was on the board in the 3rd I was like they must be running to the podium to take him...and poof, my hopes are dashed when they call T.J. Graham...and I was like WTF and who who the F is that!?  I would have rather drafted TV character TJ Hooker than that micro WR, and we took him over Wilson?  UGH those days.  Graham had no business going in the 3rd round, and yet it took just one inept franchise to make that mistake...queue the Bills lmao.  

 

So sometimes you just never know where these guys are gonna go.  I would definitely be comfortable taking Boutte in the 3rd if we don't draft one in the first or second.  

[NewEra]

Agreed on all fronts. Good comparison to Shakir.  I had a 3rd rd grade on him but would’ve been happy if we took him when we took cook. Glad Beane played his has like he did instead of mine

[GunnerBill]

I like Boutte's tape (with the exception of his hands, way too many drops). I have a 3rd on him, but he has also already had two ankle surgeries and there are questions about his work ethic. Depending on what teams make of those he could go anywhere from round 3 to round 5 I think.

[BearNorth]

Hyatt was on Sirius NFL Channel this afternoon.  I feel the need for speed.

[OldTimer1960]

22 hours ago, TailgateChef said:

Parker Washington.  I see some Hines Ward.  Tough, versatile, great hands.  Hope he makes it to #130 because of the so-so athleticism.

 

I like him, but as Gunner pointed out - is he any better or different than Khalil Shakir?