A Question That Has Haunted Me - What If 2017 Draft Was Different By That Trade Back ?

[ddaryl]

If the Bills drafted Mahomes in 2017 we would have similiar problems because of sub par drafting and a bend don't break D, coupled with inferior coaching compared to Reid

[DieHardBillsFan]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:10 PM, T master said:

Okay let me first say that i am ecstatic that we have Josh Allen as our QB he fits exactly what the Bills are in most every way a guy that had to work & is still working to be the best version of himself every year not only for the Bills but the community yet i have often wondered or had this question of what if ?

 

In 2017 the Bills got a really good player in the first round of the draft & i understand why they traded away there pick to the Chiefs to add draft capital to add other picks & even though Tre White has been a really good player taken in the 1st for the Bills just what would the Bills look like if they would have kept that pick instead of trading it & drafted Mahomes ? 🤔

 

Has any on else here ever wondered just what might have been if that would have taken place ? Also i wonder the thoughts of those in charge of that draft about Mahomes did they think he wasn't that good or was there something they heard in a interview that they didn't like ?

 

In 2017 that was the year before Beane came here correct ? Whaley was still the GM at the time or am i thinking wrong, i know we got Josh in 2018 which again i am very glad of he is a beast but this question has alway haunted me in some ways would the Bills now have 2 SB's under their belt if that would have happened ?

 

Or in part is the reason why Mahomes is so good is because of the leadership of the offensive guru that is Andy Reid ? I know this is a question that would only be answered if we had a crystal ball to see what the change would be like but was wondering if you all have thought this as i have .

 

I know we all have had thoughts in the past of why certain players were passed over & hind sight is definitely 20/20 to all the arm chair QB's in the Bills mafia but after seeing what Mahomes has been able to do in the relatively short time he has been in the NFL i ask the "What IF" question & wonder if any here have done the same ? 

Double down the Diggs trade and keep the Justin Jefferson pick.

[The Jokeman]

Well if we draft Mahomes in the 1st then we don't have the extra 3rd to move up to take Zay Jones. So hypothetically the Panthers take Zay and we get Curtis Samuel. It also means we don't get the Rams' 5th which we used to move up and get Dion Dawkins son instead draft G Dan Feeley or OT Antonio Garcia. Yet would still own pick 149 which might mean we take LB Jaylon Brown and then with pick 163 we take Nathan Peterman instead of Matt Milano. Leaving us with 171 to take LB Ukeme Eligwe and no Tanner Villejo at 195 and most likely take CB Marcus Sayles.

[90sBills]

10 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Nope. There were two major football leagues in the 60's: the NFL and the AFL. Both leagues have a right to call their champions world champions, just like before the NCAA football playoffs when the voters voted and there was a split championship (like in 2003, where they AP voted for USC and the coaches' poll had LSU). Oh, and a number of those AFL teams did beat the NFL early on for the SB, like KC in SB IV and the Jets in SB III.

So let me follow this logic. The NFL and AFL winners had the right to call themselves world champions even though the two didn’t played and the NFL was the more established league. And this means, in your mind, the Bills have two wannabe ‘Superbowls’?

 

Man I hope you don’t bring this line of thinking when discussing Bills football with others in person. As for me there’s no replacing the real thing no matter how much twisted logic gets applied. I want an actual Superbowl with a Lombardi Trophy 🏆 

[Jauronimo]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:09 PM, NoSaint said:

I’m just surprised no one else wondered about drafting mahomes before 

I dont think anyone has made the connection until now.

[90sBills]

8 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Championships fine.Best statistical start? Didn’t Allen just surpass Marino for most TDs in a players first 5 seasons? 

Yeah sure. That’s the same hollow record as the Herbert one with best stats first 2 yrs starting blah blah. Both are possible because of a technicality. Which, of course, was Mahomes sitting out his first year. If you took Mahomes’ 1st 5 Starting years it’s not even close. There’s a reason he has won 2 league MVPs and our guy hasn’t right?

 

But that should not be the focus for Bills fans. Mahomes is great for KC. Awesome. Allen is very good as well. Let’s see if he can take that next step and win a 🏆 

[SCBills]

Mahomes was drafted to a playoff caliber team, with an offensive mind at HC and was able to sit a year before taking the field.  

 

It's hard to argue with Mahomes greatness, given the results thus far.

 

However one can also contrast that with what Allen was given... which was one of the worst collections of offensive talent ever assembled in the modern era for his rookie year, and then yes... improvement, but even then, nothing earth shattering until we traded for Diggs.  

 

Since then, we have failed to give Allen anywhere close to the OL Mahomes has (typically) had and the weaponry, up until last year was far superior in KC... even last year, after trading Tyreek, it was likely a wash. 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by SCBills

[Success]

12 hours ago, 808 said:

Mahomes is a better qb imo. Its not equal talent. 
physical traits josh is bigger. 
mahomes has just as strong of an arm. 
 

josh still doesnt throw guys open as much as he likes to see them open then rips it. He gets the job done so its not that big of a deal. 
 

but PM doesnt make the same mistakes and doesnt gamble as much. Hes got rings. And has broken soo many records already. 
this doesnt mean josh is garbage. He is really good too its not that big of a deal. But mahomes is clearly better imo . And as a bills fan im fine with that. Idk why some take it soo personal. Both are really really good. Chill

 

Opinions will always vary on that stuff.  But personally, I wouldn't trade Allen for Mahomes.

 

I don't think KC fans would trade either. Both guys are suited for their teams, but I think the talent differential is negligible.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:10 PM, T master said:

Okay let me first say that i am ecstatic that we have Josh Allen as our QB he fits exactly what the Bills are in most every way a guy that had to work & is still working to be the best version of himself every year not only for the Bills but the community yet i have often wondered or had this question of what if ?

 

In 2017 the Bills got a really good player in the first round of the draft & i understand why they traded away there pick to the Chiefs to add draft capital to add other picks & even though Tre White has been a really good player taken in the 1st for the Bills just what would the Bills look like if they would have kept that pick instead of trading it & drafted Mahomes ? 🤔

 

Has any on else here ever wondered just what might have been if that would have taken place ? Also i wonder the thoughts of those in charge of that draft about Mahomes did they think he wasn't that good or was there something they heard in a interview that they didn't like ?

 

In 2017 that was the year before Beane came here correct ? Whaley was still the GM at the time or am i thinking wrong, i know we got Josh in 2018 which again i am very glad of he is a beast but this question has alway haunted me in some ways would the Bills now have 2 SB's under their belt if that would have happened ?

 

Or in part is the reason why Mahomes is so good is because of the leadership of the offensive guru that is Andy Reid ? I know this is a question that would only be answered if we had a crystal ball to see what the change would be like but was wondering if you all have thought this as i have .

 

I know we all have had thoughts in the past of why certain players were passed over & hind sight is definitely 20/20 to all the arm chair QB's in the Bills mafia but after seeing what Mahomes has been able to do in the relatively short time he has been in the NFL i ask the "What IF" question & wonder if any here have done the same ? 

 

One of things I'd read in an article was that McD stated he didn't want to draft a QB in 2017 as he hadn't had time to study them enough.

 

Until Jan 2017 4 months prior to the draft he didn't know he'd even be a head coach and all his focus to that point was on the defensive side with Carolina.  Yes that still gave him 4 months to study things, but likely those 4 months were spend putting together a staff, etc.  Likely many things a brand new HC needed to do.

 

Also if he had drafted Mahomes or someone else, he'd be going off the scouting reports of a group of people he likely knew little about and off the scouting reports of a team that hadn't done that great and had drafted M Darious and gave up alot to move up in the draft for Watkins.  Would you have wanted to put much faith in them?

Edited April 17, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, 97bills said:

Same way I see it… Mahomes and Allen are pretty much equal in talent, ITS THE COACHES!!!! Mahomes has one of the best play designers , and always seems to call the right play at the right time… guys wide open for walk in T.D in the Super Bowl. And Allen has Dorsey a rookie play caller. Who doesn’t know how to design plays. Look at our running backs for that evidence, I just hope Dorsey learned a lot last year or it might be two years wasted, and us finding a new OC. 

A coach can make all the plays he wants.  He needs a great QB to execute it.  Mahomes made those clutch plays in those 17 seconds to get them to FG range, just like how Allen ran over those KC defenders in the regular season game.    Mahomes makes a little more plays than Allen right now.  Hopefully, the script will be flipped this year.   

 

[chongli]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

So let me follow this logic. The NFL and AFL winners had the right to call themselves world champions even though the two didn’t played and the NFL was the more established league. And this means, in your mind, the Bills have two wannabe ‘Superbowls’?

 

Man I hope you don’t bring this line of thinking when discussing Bills football with others in person. As for me there’s no replacing the real thing no matter how much twisted logic gets applied. I want an actual Superbowl with a Lombardi Trophy 🏆 

 

Buffalo won two AFL championships. What more could they do? Sure, I would have preferred if the two leagues played, but it's an imperfect world. And don't give me this "more established" stuff. Favorites don't always win. As I said, the Jets, from the AFL, beat the NFL in SB III, after Green Bay won the first two. The Bills, AFL champs in 1965 would have faced Green Bay in the Super Bowl, but it didn't begin until the next year. We'll never know. 

 

Do you give the Lakers full faith for winning their bubble championship, or put an asterisk next to Roger Maris's homerun mark? It amazes me some don't give Buffalo credit for being the best in one season. Either that or many don't know Buffalo's history.

[ganesh]

17 hours ago, 97bills said:

Same way I see it… Mahomes and Allen are pretty much equal in talent, ITS THE COACHES!!!! Mahomes has one of the best play designers , and always seems to call the right play at the right time… guys wide open for walk in T.D in the Super Bowl. And Allen has Dorsey a rookie play caller. Who doesn’t know how to design plays. Look at our running backs for that evidence, I just hope Dorsey learned a lot last year or it might be two years wasted, and us finding a new OC. 

A coach can make all the plays he wants.  He needs a great QB to execute it.  Mahomes made those clutch plays in those 17 seconds to get them to FG range, just like how Allen ran over those KC defenders in the regular season game.    Mahomes makes a little more plays than Allen right now.  Hopefully, the script will be flipped this year.   

 

A few years ago, the Bengals HC Taylor, was a laughing stock in the NFL...However, once he got Burrows he is not the real QB whisperer....give credit to Burrows.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by ganesh

[colin]

the simplest way to look at an allen vs mahomes comparison is see what happened in the two games in the playoffs recently where mahomes went down.

 

vs the browns in 2021 (post 2020 season, we got kinda trucked by KC at KC in that playoffs) mahomes goes down and his back up, a career back up, just held the team together well enough to win, and the kc d stepped up too.

 

vz jax in the most recent play offs, same back up no body qb comes in and kc just marches down the field w small play after small play setting up a slam dunk red zone score from inside the 5 or 10.

 

if you put that back up qb on the bills for one drive in a playoff game, he's getting sacked, fumbling, and possibly injured.  our roster at that point of both of those years was pure cheeks compared to KCs, especially on O.  our clown squad on OL couldn't sustain a double digit play drive without any penalties killing it, nor avoid big protection mistakes over and over.  our "weapons" were ball dropper davis, diggs who is great but would just be double covered, and knox.

 

in 2021 when the OL for KC got hurt to the point where they were fielding the same kinda trash we had in either of those years, mahomes couldn't make the plays that josh makes happen and looked lost.

[CheshireCT]

11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Everyone knew that the scouts and GM would be fired.  Whaley didn't hire McDermott.  

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/bills-scouts-bracing-for-a-post-draft-house-cleaning/

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/26/talk-in-buffalo-that-doug-whaley-could-be-on-the-way-out/

 

 

McDermott himself said he wasn't ready to draft a QB and wanted the new GM to be part of that process (he knew a new GM was coming) 

 

https://theathletic.com/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chiefs-bills-nfl-draft-trade-patrick-mahomes/16opv91al12zs1j8dzwew6ol9e

 

 

Whaley...after saying they had worked on a trade for weeks, and knew they were trading out of the pick ,then says....but it's alway a possibility....well, yeah, in the sense that if they were at 10 and Mahomes was on the board...it was in fact, possible...and so was Watson, and Deshone Kizer, etc.  

 

The Bills, were not in the QB market in 2017.

 

I mean plus this just makes sense....they wanted their new GM to be involved in one of the biggest franchise decisions. They did what was right for them, and they nailed it.

[90sBills]

30 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Buffalo won two AFL championships. What more could they do? Sure, I would have preferred if the two leagues played, but it's an imperfect world. And don't give me this "more established" stuff. Favorites don't always win. As I said, the Jets, from the AFL, beat the NFL in SB III, after Green Bay won the first two. The Bills, AFL champs in 1965 would have faced Green Bay in the Super Bowl, but it didn't begin until the next year. We'll never know. 

 

Do you give the Lakers full faith for winning their bubble championship, or put an asterisk next to Roger Maris's homerun mark? It amazes me some don't give Buffalo credit for being the best in one season. Either that or many don't know Buffalo's history.

It’s hard to give credit when the competition was not complete. When I said the NFL was more established I wasn’t implying that the NFL team would win if they’d played. I was implying there were more talent on that side as it was more established. So you can’t expect most Bills fans to be comforted by those distant championships from a bygone era when the Bills keep getting knocked out every January. That’s why Romo’s ill advised moniker ‘Mr. January’ for Allen during the WC around was very cringey. Takes on a whole different unintended meaning when you keep losing. 

 

But if you personally can find solace in those old championships then more power to ya! 👍

 

 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:23 PM, GETTOTHE50 said:

Mahomes has arguably the greatest offensive minded coach in history, along with a top 5 tight end in history, and a really solid offensive line.

 

If Allen had Reid + Kelce + offensive line, then he would win MVP and the superbowl every year for the next decade.

Yeah but Allen has a really cool secondary, right?

[90sBills]

20 minutes ago, colin said:

the simplest way to look at an allen vs mahomes comparison is see what happened in the two games in the playoffs recently where mahomes went down.

 

vs the browns in 2021 (post 2020 season, we got kinda trucked by KC at KC in that playoffs) mahomes goes down and his back up, a career back up, just held the team together well enough to win, and the kc d stepped up too.

 

vz jax in the most recent play offs, same back up no body qb comes in and kc just marches down the field w small play after small play setting up a slam dunk red zone score from inside the 5 or 10.

 

if you put that back up qb on the bills for one drive in a playoff game, he's getting sacked, fumbling, and possibly injured.  our roster at that point of both of those years was pure cheeks compared to KCs, especially on O.  our clown squad on OL couldn't sustain a double digit play drive without any penalties killing it, nor avoid big protection mistakes over and over.  our "weapons" were ball dropper davis, diggs who is great but would just be double covered, and knox.

 

in 2021 when the OL for KC got hurt to the point where they were fielding the same kinda trash we had in either of those years, mahomes couldn't make the plays that josh makes happen and looked lost.

So you’re saying Henne could’ve won those Superbowls for KC? As for Mahomes looking lost after his OL got hurt…was this the season they thrashed us in the AFCCG (‘20-‘21) or the season he broke all Bills fans hearts in 13 sec (‘21-‘22)? Cuz he didn’t looked very lost in those games. He did struggled in the Superbowl against TB when 4 starting linemen were out. I guess that’s what you meant?

[ShakAttack]

Funny thing is, I was wondering about a “what if” last night myself.

 

What if the Ravens never fumble on the 1 yard line against the bengals and we never had to face the Bengals - the team that was clearly our WORST matchup in the nfl - and hosted the Ravens at home in the divisional round instead?

 

We would then move on to play KC on a neutral field, a team that we have actually had success against over the past 2 seasons, and I highly doubt the team would have shown up “tired” or “uninspired” for a rematch against the Chiefs. 
 

What might have happened in that scenario? The scenario that SHOULD have happened if not for a VERY lucky break for the Bengals in the WC round? 

 

Perhaps the Bills are Super Bowl champions and we never have this conversation about 2017… Never know…

[chongli]

23 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

It’s hard to give credit when the competition was not complete. When I said the NFL was more established I wasn’t implying that the NFL team would win if they’d played. I was implying there were more talent on that side as it was more established. So you can’t expect most Bills fans to be comforted by those distant championships from a bygone era when the Bills keep getting knocked out every January. That’s why Romo’s ill advised moniker ‘Mr. January’ for Allen during the WC around was very cringey. Takes on a whole different unintended meaning when you keep losing. 

 

But if you personally can find solace in those old championships then more power to ya! 👍

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, you make a fair point and give a good explanation. I now see what you meant. Make no mistake about it I want at least one SB win too. The two Bills AFL championships were actually before I was born, but it is all I (and all Buffalo fans) have. 

 

[And I agree: Romo's comment was premature.]

 

Let's just win it...finally, and get the monkey off our back.

[corta765]

So without getting into the Allen v Mahomes piece, the 2017 draft literally set the table for the current Bills. Buffalo added Tre, Milano, & Dawkins 3 top starting players plus with the KC trade it also was used to get Allen & Edmunds by extension of the draft capital they had. The Bills literally added 5 top starters which included their QB to build a new base. Had the Bills drafted Mahomes you are not getting half of that and without going down the rabbit hole Mahomes is in a much different starting point himself then in KC. Circumstance and surroundings matter in every sports and organization and what worked somewhere does not mean it will work in the next. Remember the Bills cap situation itself in 2017 and 2018 was f*cked. EVEN if Mahomes went off you were not building around him until 2019 with more established pieces. By comparison while KC had a tighter cap they were in a far more ready made situation out of the get go something that took Buffalo 3 years to do. It is just so incredibly difficult to play What If when things are so vastly different in so many capacities.