A Question That Has Haunted Me - What If 2017 Draft Was Different By That Trade Back ?

[Mat68]

22 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I’ve thought about this as well. Mahomes has had the best start of any qb in the history of the league in terms of championships and individual records. With or without Reid he was going to be elite and taken any team to contention and probably a title. So of course Bills fans will wonder what if. But I truly think even if the Bills didn’t make that trade they wouldn’t have taken Mahomes at 10. They didn’t have the coaching foresight to see the talent in him. Not many did otherwise he’d went #1.

 

 

Having Hunt Hill Kelcle and Ried wasnt Ivory Jones and Clay.  Mahomes would have faced a similar road that Allen had. 

[Zerovoltz]

First...the simple answer is the Bills would still have Josh Allen almost certainly.  I'll explain that below.

 

Let's once again go back over how that all played out....

 

Early in 2017, the Pegulas did some wierd stuff when they hired Sean McDermott, a defensive minded HC...just a couple months before the draft.  They retained Whaley to help with the draft and all parties knew that Whaley would be gone, and that a new GM would be hired AFTER the draft.  This is important because while Whaley and Terry Pegual both liked Mahomes, McDermott wasn't a QB evaluator, and he didn't want to make a call on the next franchise QB until the new GM was in place and they could all evaluate and get on the same page when they made such a huge and important choice.  Going into the 2017 Draft, the Bills were NOT taking a QB...even if they had stayed at 10, that pick wasn't Mahomes.  It's been well established that the Saints were set to draft Mahomes at pick 11 if he was there....that would be different.  I speculate that if the bills stayed at 10, maybe the pick would have been Marshon Lattimore, who the Saints ended up with at 11.  IDK.  Anyhow...The Bills still would have arrived at the 2018 draft, with Beane and needing a QB.  They likely would have had a similar draft position and assets, minus the extra 1st they got from the Mahomes trade.  HOWEVER....the Bills did not use draft capital involved in the Mahomes trade to manuever for Allen.  That draft capital had more to do with manuevering for Edwards.  The Bills loved Allen..and they were in position to get him regardless of the Mahomes trade or not.

 

So...  Not much difference..Allen would still be your QB......Lattimore instead of White?  

 

Biggest difference owuld be Mahomes as a Saint....with Sean Payton.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Zerovoltz
date

[chongli]

I'll take Josh over Mahommes any day. In the end, we'll see who has more SB rings.

[Maynard]

22 hours ago, freddyjj said:

God…can you imagine loving/defending these people?

[Success]

There is a lot more to KC's 2 SB's than Mahomes.  

 

I'd argue that both Mahomes & Allen have been as good in the playoffs, and also had as much struggle at times.  But Reid's coaching and the balanced composition of their team has made a very big difference.

 

And I think McD is good. But he's not as good as Reid, and the Bills team, for the most part, has been very top heavy w/ Allen, Diggs and just a few others.  KC has been deeper and better.

 

[Ya Digg?]

Wait, the Bills could’ve had Mahomes?!?!

[Utah John]

Not taking anything away from Mahomes, but he did get really lucky with respect to his surroundings.  First, he got to redshirt his rookie year, learning on the job while watching Alex Smith run the offense.  No too-early pressure on Mahomes, and plenty of time for him to figure out what's what in the pros.  Second, he got Andy Reid as his HC, a brilliant offensive mind who consistently outthinks opponent coaches and who keeps coming up with creative ways for Mahomes to use his talents.  Third and fourth, Kelce and Hill.  Fifth, a front office that keeps finding ways to keep the roster intact even as players come and go.  When a weakness appears in a given season, that area becomes a strength the next.  

 

Again, this is nothing against Mahomes, but it's worth considering whether he'd have done as well in Buffalo or anywhere else.  

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, chongli said:

I'll take Josh over Mahommes any day. In the end, we'll see who has more SB rings.

Is this hubris, delusional, or sarcasm?

 

Most fans that follow the Bills just hope (wish) for ONE Superbowl win just to know what that feeling is like. For a franchise that hasn’t won a Superbowl ever don’t you think it’s unrealistic to expect multiple? Just because your bias for Allen won’t allow for the possibility of Mahomes being better? 

 

Mahomes can be the best right now or the best ever as long as the Bills get one. It isn’t a competition between Mahomes vs Allen. At least it shouldn’t be. It’s a team sport where success is measured by Superbowl wins. Let’s get that one. Bills fans deserve this. 

[GETTOTHE50]

2 hours ago, Success said:

There is a lot more to KC's 2 SB's than Mahomes.  

 

I'd argue that both Mahomes & Allen have been as good in the playoffs, and also had as much struggle at times.  But Reid's coaching and the balanced composition of their team has made a very big difference.

 

And I think McD is good. But he's not as good as Reid, and the Bills team, for the most part, has been very top heavy w/ Allen, Diggs and just a few others.  KC has been deeper and better.

 

deeper on offense, but not defense or special teams. unfortunately, the latter two don’t make a difference when we play each other. 

[Dr.Sack]

Mahomes being in Buffalo wouldn’t really mean much 2017-2018 given a history of poor drafting, and lack of surrounding talent. Where it gets interesting is 2019 - assuming KC traded up for Allen in 2018. 

[808]

Mahomes is a better qb imo. Its not equal talent. 
physical traits josh is bigger. 
mahomes has just as strong of an arm. 
 

josh still doesnt throw guys open as much as he likes to see them open then rips it. He gets the job done so its not that big of a deal. 
 

but PM doesnt make the same mistakes and doesnt gamble as much. Hes got rings. And has broken soo many records already. 
this doesnt mean josh is garbage. He is really good too its not that big of a deal. But mahomes is clearly better imo . And as a bills fan im fine with that. Idk why some take it soo personal. Both are really really good. Chill

[Dr.Sack]

8 minutes ago, 808 said:

Mahomes is a better qb imo. Its not equal talent. 
physical traits josh is bigger. 
mahomes has just as strong of an arm. 
 

josh still doesnt throw guys open as much as he likes to see them open then rips it. He gets the job done so its not that big of a deal. 
 

but PM doesnt make the same mistakes and doesnt gamble as much. Hes got rings. And has broken soo many records already. 
this doesnt mean josh is garbage. He is really good too its not that big of a deal. But mahomes is clearly better imo . And as a bills fan im fine with that. Idk why some take it soo personal. Both are really really good. Chill

I’d argue Allen would have at least 1 title if we drafted Mahomes and the Chiefs traded up to get Allen in 2018. Would we have a championship? I am not so convinced considering our lack of complimentary running game, given Allen’s running production and not having Kelce or Hill. Reid clearly has gotten the most out of Mahomes talent.

[chongli]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Is this hubris, delusional, or sarcasm?

 

Most fans that follow the Bills just hope (wish) for ONE Superbowl win just to know what that feeling is like. For a franchise that hasn’t won a Superbowl ever don’t you think it’s unrealistic to expect multiple? Just because your bias for Allen won’t allow for the possibility of Mahomes being better? 

 

 

It's confidence. And the Bills already have two world championships, but the AFL title game back then wasn't called the Super Bowl. Buffalo got theirs in the 1964 and 1965, and KC got theirs in 1966 and 1970, 2019, and 2022 (the latter three being SB's). But SB or world championship, it's just a name. They have 4, we have 2.

Edited April 17, 2023 by chongli

[808]

4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

First...the simple answer is the Bills would still have Josh Allen almost certainly.  I'll explain that below.

 

Let's once again go back over how that all played out....

 

Early in 2017, the Pegulas did some wierd stuff when they hired Sean McDermott, a defensive minded HC...just a couple months before the draft.  They retained Whaley to help with the draft and all parties knew that Whaley would be gone, and that a new GM would be hired AFTER the draft.  This is important because while Whaley and Terry Pegual both liked Mahomes, McDermott wasn't a QB evaluator, and he didn't want to make a call on the next franchise QB until the new GM was in place and they could all evaluate and get on the same page when they made such a huge and important choice.  Going into the 2017 Draft, the Bills were NOT taking a QB...even if they had stayed at 10, that pick wasn't Mahomes.  It's been well established that the Saints were set to draft Mahomes at pick 11 if he was there....that would be different.  I speculate that if the bills stayed at 10, maybe the pick would have been Marshon Lattimore, who the Saints ended up with at 11.  IDK.  Anyhow...The Bills still would have arrived at the 2018 draft, with Beane and needing a QB.  They likely would have had a similar draft position and assets, minus the extra 1st they got from the Mahomes trade.  HOWEVER....the Bills did not use draft capital involved in the Mahomes trade to manuever for Allen.  That draft capital had more to do with manuevering for Edwards.  The Bills loved Allen..and they were in position to get him regardless of the Mahomes trade or not.

 

So...  Not much difference..Allen would still be your QB......Lattimore instead of White?  

 

Biggest difference owuld be Mahomes as a Saint....with Sean Payton.

 

Id urge you to go listen to the tyler dunne podcasts that have had whaley and monos. 
they are pretty upfront they your assumption that they were retained and knew they would be gone after doesnt really add up with them. 
 

also terry absolutely gushed over mahomes every chance he could get. But the rex hire got him in a weird spot and i think he wanted to let them do their jobs. 
 

but go give it a listen. I think it would change your mind on how that played out. 
 

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, 808 said:

Id urge you to go listen to the tyler dunne podcasts that have had whaley and monos. 
they are pretty upfront they your assumption that they were retained and knew they would be gone after doesnt really add up with them. 
 

also terry absolutely gushed over mahomes every chance he could get. But the rex hire got him in a weird spot and i think he wanted to let them do their jobs. 
 

but go give it a listen. I think it would change your mind on how that played out. 
 

 

Everyone knew that the scouts and GM would be fired.  Whaley didn't hire McDermott.  

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/bills-scouts-bracing-for-a-post-draft-house-cleaning/

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/26/talk-in-buffalo-that-doug-whaley-could-be-on-the-way-out/

 

 

McDermott himself said he wasn't ready to draft a QB and wanted the new GM to be part of that process (he knew a new GM was coming) 

 

https://theathletic.com/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chiefs-bills-nfl-draft-trade-patrick-mahomes/16opv91al12zs1j8dzwew6ol9e

 

 

Whaley...after saying they had worked on a trade for weeks, and knew they were trading out of the pick ,then says....but it's alway a possibility....well, yeah, in the sense that if they were at 10 and Mahomes was on the board...it was in fact, possible...and so was Watson, and Deshone Kizer, etc.  

 

The Bills, were not in the QB market in 2017.

[90sBills]

58 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

It's confidence. And the Bills already have two world championships, but the AFL title game back then wasn't called the Super Bowl. Buffalo got theirs in the 1964 and 1965, and KC got theirs in 1969 and 1970, 2019, and 2022 (the latter three being SB's). But SB or world championship, it's just a name. They have 4, we have 2.

Really??? You’re counting AFL titles as equal to Superbowls? That’s like touting a USFL or XFL championship if those leagues happen to merge with the NFL at some point in the future. C’mon man. That’s straight crazy talk. Maybe that’s where your misplaced confidence is coming from.

 

I don’t have much confidence that they could win multiple championships. I just hope that Allen and the team can learn from their mistakes and able to get it done ONE year. Probably in a year that KC is down. I mean, Mahomes can’t be in every AFCCG can he? 

[chongli]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Really??? You’re counting AFL titles as equal to Superbowls? That’s like touting a USFL or XFL championship if those leagues happen to merge with the NFL at some point in the future. C’mon man. That’s straight crazy talk. Maybe that’s where your misplaced confidence is coming from.

 

 

Nope. There were two major football leagues in the 60's: the NFL and the AFL. Both leagues have a right to call their champions world champions, just like before the NCAA football playoffs when the voters voted and there was a split championship (like in 2003, where they AP voted for USC and the coaches' poll had LSU). Oh, and a number of those AFL teams did beat the NFL early on for the SB, like KC in SB IV and the Jets in SB III.

[808]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Everyone knew that the scouts and GM would be fired.  Whaley didn't hire McDermott.  

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/bills-scouts-bracing-for-a-post-draft-house-cleaning/

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/26/talk-in-buffalo-that-doug-whaley-could-be-on-the-way-out/

 

 

McDermott himself said he wasn't ready to draft a QB and wanted the new GM to be part of that process (he knew a new GM was coming) 

 

https://theathletic.com/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chiefs-bills-nfl-draft-trade-patrick-mahomes/16opv91al12zs1j8dzwew6ol9e

 

 

Whaley...after saying they had worked on a trade for weeks, and knew they were trading out of the pick ,then says....but it's alway a possibility....well, yeah, in the sense that if they were at 10 and Mahomes was on the board...it was in fact, possible...and so was Watson, and Deshone Kizer, etc.  

 

The Bills, were not in the QB market in 2017.

Did you happen to listen to the pods with monos/whaley talking about that draft? 
also the sammy watkins draft episode is good too. 
 

Should give it a listen its pretty insightful. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:44 PM, 90sBills said:

I’ve thought about this as well. Mahomes has had the best start of any qb in the history of the league in terms of championships and individual records. With or without Reid he was going to be elite and taken any team to contention and probably a title. So of course Bills fans will wonder what if. But I truly think even if the Bills didn’t make that trade they wouldn’t have taken Mahomes at 10. They didn’t have the coaching foresight to see the talent in him. Not many did otherwise he’d went #1.

 

 

Championships fine.Best statistical start? Didn’t Allen just surpass Marino for most TDs in a players first 5 seasons? 

[bmur66]

Tyrod Taylor was the QB and they didn't draft a QB when they were picking at 10. I was jumping up and down for Mahomes. McD and Beane were lucky the way it worked out with getting Allen or we would probably be looking at a new coach by now.