This might be the perfect WR class for the Bills to draft one in the mid rounds

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I changed the title. I don't think many of you got my point.

 

There are 14 WRs ranked in the top 100 (Brugler). I think some of you are bizarrely of the belief that it's 1st round WR or bust because no one else will be worthwhile.

 

I think that's misguided 

 

I disagree 

I do like Rice and Mingo as third round picks if that's the way it plays out. I'd take a shot with Bryce Ford-Wheaton as a later round developmental project with good size. I wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year, because you could see this was going to be a down year at the position then.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

This WR class is just so underwhelming that I don't think given where we pick would be much of an upgrade of what we have right now.  Next year's class has to be better.  Right?  I'm thinking more long term with Josh anyways.  I'd prefer a tackle that can play both sides and push Spencer Brown for his job.  Maybe eventually take over for Dion Dawkins.  My ideal first three picks would be something along the lines of Wright in the first, Campbell or Sanders in the 2nd, and then maybe take a chance on someone like Mauch (assuming Avilia is off the board) in the 3rd.  Kick him inside to develop as a guard.

 

 

Actually I think next years WR class will probably be worse.   This one lacks a sure thing at the top but I think that the rest of the class is getting docked a bit for that.    Guys like JSN and Addison would have been first rounders in a strong WR draft coming off their 2021 performances had they been in the draft of 2022, IMO.   Others in this class like Xavier Hutchinson were getting some buzz as early rounders going into January last year prior to opting to stay in school.   Yeah.........you aren't likely to get a Tee Higgins late 1 or early 2 this year but it's not a class of bums at WR.   And this might be a year where you can include a couple TE's as receivers if your OC promises to utilize them.  

 

I think the likelihood at this point(based on boards that aren't really reflective of the teams themselves) is that the best value available to the Bills at a premium position at #27 will be edge rusher.    I don't love that it falls down that way but you shouldn't Cody-Ford yourself as an organization because you perceive a need at a non-premium position matters.   They kinda' don't.........and with one injury almost any position could be a glaring need 4-6 months from now so needs to me really aren't that compelling on draft day.     

[Nephilim17]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I think we've drafted enough late-round WR and we really need to make an early round investment. 

I absolutely agree. Just don't use a 1st on a slot guy. It's nuts that we have Diggs turning 30 this year and no one being groomed to replace him. Maybe Davis was hoped to be that guy, but with a QB like Allen we should be taking a shot every year at a potentially starting outside receiver and hopefully a guy with good traits.

I think most people are in agreement we can take a slot guy but not in the first. I think.

[John from Riverside]

20 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Congrats on that glass half full perspective.  Diggs is almost 30.  Davis has been underwhelming as WR2 who's in the last year of his contract.  We should be looking to draft a future Diggs replacement who can play on the outside as the WR2 in the meantime. Unfortunately, this WR draft class is abhorrent. 

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

Only having six picks would pry be the only reason.  I expect at least one though in the first three rounds.  Too many WR pre draft visits to think otherwise.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I do like Rice and Mingo as third round picks if that's the way it plays out. I'd take a shot with Bryce Ford-Wheaton as a later round developmental project with good size. I wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year, because you could see this was going to be a down year at the position then.

 

Well... I think the discrepancy here is that you're assuming that the Bills will/should be targeting a WR with size

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I changed the title. I don't think many of you got my point.

 

There are 14 WRs ranked in the top 100 (Brugler). I think some of you are bizarrely of the belief that it's 1st round WR or bust because no one else will be worthwhile.

 

I think that's misguided 

 

I disagree 

 

My perception has been that this a weaker receiver class (it is a weaker draft class in general) but that the weakness at receiver is most pronounced in the first two rounds. 

 

But given your point re. Dane Brugler (who I am a big fan of, he is one of the best around IMO) I have just done a bit of a compare and contrast my board, his board, 2022 and 2023. I started by counting in my top 100 this year and I also, by an interesting quirk, have 14. I've compared my 14 to Dane's. We have 10 that we both have in that 14.... 4 that we differ on. The four he has as top 100 grades that I don't are my receivers 15, 16, 17 and 18. The four I have top 100 grades on that he doesn't are his receivers 15, 16, 17, and 18. We both have AT Perry as WR14 and the last WR in our top 100. He has a 3rd-4th borderline on him, I have him a point lower on my board as a high 4th rounder.

 

I compared us both to last year as well, because the way to compare the strength of a position group isn't just relative to the other position groups in a draft... especially not when most recognise it as a weaker draft... but to compare it relative to other classes. And it's fair to say Dane and I differed a little more, though not massively, in 2022. 

 

In 2022 I had 17 WRs in my top 100, the 17th being my #96 overall player - Khalil Shakir, on whom I had a late 3rd round grade. Dane again had 14 WRs in his top 100 with the 14th and final being Wan'dale Robinson with a 3rd-4th borderline grade (he then did have Austin and Shakir who were my WR16 and WR17 as his WR15 and WR16 and just outside the top 100). The one we disagreed on really was Justyn Ross and he made clear on his write up he had downgraded him because of medicals whereas I don't downgrade people on medicals because I don't have access to the same level of info as people like Dane so I grade them on the tape and then just asterisk them. The other difference we both have is last year I had 12 WRs with at worst a 2nd-3rd borderline grade. Dane had 10. This year I have 7, he has 8. At the very top Dane had 5 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 1 first and four borderline and I had 4 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 0 firsts and two borderline. 

 

My conclusions from this exercise:

 

1. It is definitely a weaker wide receiver class at the very top of the draft.

2. That continues to be the case through the 2nd round.

3. While it remains, overall, slightly weaker than last year by the end of round 3 / early round 4 it has evened out much more.

 

I think one final thing to throw into the pot might be that the only guys you'd say had a proper "impact" as rookies last year were the guys I had ranked as WR1-7 (Olave, Williams, Wilson, London, Watson, Dotson, Pickens) and had 1st, borderline or high 2nds on. Dane had a slightly different order he had Pickens WR8 and Watson WR10. But the point being that while, of course, the Bills can draft a wide receiver later in the draft... rounds 3 and 4 might be particularly rich in "value" at receiver the chance that you find someone who can come in and make an impact, compete with Gabe or even win the starting slot job is slim. After their moves in FA I wouldn't particularly say the Bills need at receiver is a "depth" thing. It is an impact thing, they need more guys who can make those difference making plays. 

 

So while, I see your point, I think the idea we can take a lower priority position at #27 because there are receivers who might be available later is not wrong, but inherently risky. 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My perception has been that this a weaker receiver class (it is a weaker draft class in general) but that the weakness at receiver is most pronounced in the first two rounds. 

 

But given your point re. Dane Brugler (who I am a big fan of, he is one of the best around IMO) I have just done a bit of a compare and contrast my board, his board, 2022 and 2023. I started by counting in my top 100 this year and I also, by an interesting quirk, have 14. I've compared my 14 to Dane's. We have 10 that we both have in that 14.... 4 that we differ on. The four he has as top 100 grades that I don't are my receivers 15, 16, 17 and 18. The four I have top 100 grades on that he doesn't are his receivers 15, 16, 17, and 18. We both have AT Perry as WR14 and the last WR in our top 100. He has a 3rd-4th borderline on him, I have him a point lower on my board as a high 4th rounder.

 

I compared us both to last year as well, because the way to compare the strength of a position group isn't just relative to the other position groups in a draft... especially not when most recognise it as a weaker draft... but to compare it relative to other classes. And it's fair to say Dane and I differed a little more, though not massively, in 2022. 

 

In 2022 I had 17 WRs in my top 100, the 17th being my #96 overall player - Khalil Shakir, on whom I had a late 3rd round grade. Dane again had 14 WRs in his top 100 with the 14th and final being Wan'dale Robinson with a 3rd-4th borderline grade (he then did have Austin and Shakir who were my WR16 and WR17 as his WR15 and WR16 and just outside the top 100). The one we disagreed on really was Justyn Ross and he made clear on his write up he had downgraded him because of medicals whereas I don't downgrade people on medicals because I don't have access to the same level of info as people like Dane so I grade them on the tape and then just asterisk them. The other difference we both have is last year I had 12 WRs with at worst a 2nd-3rd borderline grade. Dane had 10. This year I have 7, he has 8. At the very top Dane had 5 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 1 first and four borderline and I had 4 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 0 firsts and two borderline. 

 

My conclusions from this exercise:

 

1. It is definitely a weaker wide receiver class at the very top of the draft.

2. That continues to be the case through the 2nd round.

3. While it remains, overall, slightly weaker than last year by the end of round 3 / early round 4 it has evened out much more.

 

I think one final thing to throw into the pot might be that the only guys you'd say had a proper "impact" as rookies last year were the guys I had ranked as WR1-7 (Olave, Williams, Wilson, London, Watson, Dotson, Pickens) and had 1st, borderline or high 2nds on. Dane had a slightly different order he had Pickens WR8 and Watson WR10. But the point being that while, of course, the Bills can draft a wide receiver later in the draft... rounds 3 and 4 might be particularly rich in "value" at receiver the chance that you find someone who can come in and make an impact, compete with Gabe or even win the starting slot job is slim. After their moves in FA I wouldn't particularly say the Bills need at receiver is a "depth" thing. It is an impact thing, they need more guys who can make those difference making plays. 

 

So while, I see your point, I think the idea we can take a lower priority position at #27 because there are receivers who might be available later is not wrong, but inherently risky. 

 

Thanks Gunner. I genuinely appreciate the response.

 

I think you generally captured what I was trying to say in the 2nd to last paragraph at towards the end.

 

Since you have your scouting background, can you give us your favorite 1 or 2 WRs by round that you'd like to see in the draft?

 

Right now it seems like most have JSN as in a league of his own in this draft but still relatively within reach with a trade up. Do you agree? Would you do it?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Thanks Gunner. I genuinely appreciate the response.

 

I think you generally captured what I was trying to say in the 2nd to last paragraph at towards the end.

 

Since you have your scouting background, can you give us your favorite 1 or 2 WRs by round that you'd like to see in the draft?

 

Right now it seems like most have JSN as in a league of his own in this draft but still relatively within reach with a trade up. Do you agree? Would you do it?

 

I think JSN will go top 15 and no I wouldn't trade up that high. If Addison gets within 3 or 4 picks I might do it. I'd pick Quinten Johnston if he fell to #27 as well, and I could live with Jalin Hyatt. Round 2 I suspect the guys I like enough to select in that round will all be gone. Maybe Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman standing pat at #59 if one of them is there. Round 3 I think Xavier Hutchinson migh be there for us and he is my favourite of that tier of receivers so if we haven't addressed it by that point I'd take a swing on him, but I think he is more a developmental player than a day 1 impact player.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think JSN will go top 15 and no I wouldn't trade up that high. If Addison gets within 3 or 4 picks I might do it. I'd pick Quinten Johnston if he fell to #27 as well, and I could live with Jalin Hyatt. Round 2 I suspect the guys I like enough to select in that round will all be gone. Maybe Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman standing pat at #59 if one of them is there. Round 3 I think Xavier Hutchinson migh be there for us and he is my favourite of that tier of receivers so if we haven't addressed it by that point I'd take a swing on him, but I think he is more a developmental player than a day 1 impact player.

 

Zay Flowers?

 

Do you have a separate grade for Bills specific players? I appreciate that Joe Marino, for example, comes out with a separate Bills ranking.

 

And while I could see the push back against something like that, I think scheme/culture fit needs to be a consideration.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Zay Flowers?

 

Do you have a separate grade for Bills specific players? I appreciate that Joe Marino, for example, comes out with a separate Bills ranking.

 

And while I could see the push back against something like that, I think scheme/culture fit needs to be a consideration.

 

I wouldn't take Zay in round one myself. Someone will. But I wouldn't. I think he is so specific a player. He is small. He is light. And he has extremely short arms. It was one of the reasons Khalil Shakir fell to round 5 last year. 29 inch arms. Flowers is 29 and a quarter. The list of NFL receivers who have succeeded with arms that short is almost non-existent. I think the arms mean he will struggle to get off any type of press coverage, so you are limited to slot receiver and I think if you pigeon hole him into being a traditional slot you are not going to maximise his skillset. He is a guy you need to scheme in space. Lots of gimmick stuff, bubble screens, double pass concepts, end arounds and sweeps, pitch and toss plays, routes out of the backfield. If he went to San Francisco with Shanahan he would be a star, but unfortunately for him he will probably land somewhere where a team tries to pigeon hole him intona position rather than just saying "get it to him in space". 

 

I don't have a separate grade for Bills players but when I am watching someone I am thinking about scheme fits. Because that hurts the value of someone like Zay for me. He has to be used in such a specific way.... and a lot of offenses you look at and think "not their style, not their identity." 

 

For the Bills specifically a few traits they seem to value above others by position group:

 

- route running for receivers;

- athleticism for offensive linemen;

- size and blocking ability at tight end;

- length at edge;

- length at corner;

- smarts and coverage ability at safety.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sierra Foothills]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:29 AM, whorlnut said:

You “hope” the chiefs get a guy that you compare to tyreke hill and not the bills?  You must be a chiefs fan, because why would you want that to happen?

 

Look at his avatar.

 

On 4/15/2023 at 12:50 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

You can ALWAYS afford to wait on a slot-only WR in the draft.

 

And it's also not a need.    They have a slot-only in Harty.  

 

The reality is that they don't need a slot-only WR at all.........they need a boundary WR to bump Davis back to WR3 where he belongs.

 

And that WR2 will hopefully have some slot flexibility or if not then at least it would still allow Diggs to be in the slot and get the free release opportunities that slot receivers get and better matchups.  

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Look at his avatar.

 

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

I like Josh Downs, but not at 27.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Look at his avatar.

 

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

 

Slot-only is not a need.   They addressed that with Harty........who got paid like a starting slot WR unlike the flyers they took last season.

 

What they need is an outside receiver who can be GREAT at slot.

 

That's Stefon Diggs.........if they add another boundary threat.

 

I thought I spelled that out pretty clearly but apparently not.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Slot-only is not a need.   They addressed that with Harty........who got paid like a starting slot WR unlike the flyers they took last season.

 

What they need is an outside receiver who can be GREAT at slot.

 

That's Stefon Diggs.........if they add another boundary threat.

 

I thought I spelled that out pretty clearly but apparently not.

I think Addison is that player - a guy who can legit play inside and outside. He's a bit of a Diggs clone in his skill set (elite separator with top-of-the-route twitchiness along with a very large route tree for a college player). 

[Dr. Who]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think Addison is that player - a guy who can legit play inside and outside. He's a bit of a Diggs clone in his skill set (elite separator with top-of-the-route twitchiness along with a very large route tree for a college player). 

I hope Beane has the opportunity and the cajones to pay the price to trade up for him. Lots of folks saying he is meh. I don't think they appreciate sufficiently his skill set and the rarity of his developed route tree at the collegiate level. He's a true first rounder that perfectly matches a primary need at a position of value. 

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/15/2023 at 7:09 PM, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

 

Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty and Sherfield are all most likely locks.  Unless they go with 7 WRs, drafting 2 is unlikely.

 

General WR comments:

I can't see a "slot only" WR drafted (especially higher rounds).  Just doesn't make sense with Harty and Shakir penciled in for that.

Add that Diggs lines up in the slot a decent amount of the time and Sherfield able to do that, it just seems not to be in the cards this year.

 

As much as some fans don't want to hear it, Davis is the WR2 until his is displaced.  So, in my amateur football knowledge drafting a future WR2

(mainly outside, with a deep threat possibility) somewhere Day 2 seems to be the smart move for this season.  Jonathan Mingo seems to be

a possibility.  

 

I would also like to hear what players fit the bill in the 4th round.  Appreciate anyone with comments on that.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 4/15/2023 at 3:48 AM, freddyjj said:

One of the worst movies I’ve ever seen, if not the worst given the franchise behind it. 

6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty and Sherfield are all most likely locks.  Unless they go with 7 WRs, drafting 2 is unlikely.

 

General WR comments:

I can't see a "slot only" WR drafted (especially higher rounds).  Just doesn't make sense with Harty and Shakir penciled in for that.

Add that Diggs lines up in the slot a decent amount of the time and Sherfield able to do that, it just seems not to be in the cards this year.

 

As much as some fans don't want to hear it, Davis is the WR2 until his is displaced.  So, in my amateur football knowledge drafting a future WR2

(mainly outside, with a deep threat possibility) somewhere Day 2 seems to be the smart move for this season.  Jonathan Mingo seems to be

a possibility.  

 

I would also like to hear what players fit the bill in the 4th round.  Appreciate anyone with comments on that.

What’s obvious when you look at this list is there are no elite physical trait WRs on the roster. 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I hope Beane has the opportunity and the cajones to pay the price to trade up for him. Lots of folks saying he is meh. I don't think they appreciate sufficiently his skill set and the rarity of his developed route tree at the collegiate level. He's a true first rounder that perfectly matches a primary need at a position of value. 

I’d think the Steelers would enjoy picking him to reunite him with Kenny P.  

[Richard Noggin]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:09 PM, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

 

On 4/15/2023 at 11:52 PM, Doc Brown said:

Only having six picks would pry be the only reason.  I expect at least one though in the first three rounds.  Too many WR pre draft visits to think otherwise.  

 

I'd initially want to argue that the Bills depth chart is the reason drafting two WRs could be counterproductive:

 

Diggs

Davis

Shakir

Harty

Sherfield

 

Either one of those 5 is bumped off the roster, or one of the two drafted WRs is going to be a gameday inactive or practice squad poach candidate. 

 

Then again, the more I look at this, the more I disagree with my own initial reaction. Sure feels like Davis is a goner after this season, and it's probably smart to prepare for a post-Diggs future. Sherfield only signed for one year. Therefore, they should add at least one compelling WR prospect to the pipeline.