TSW Mock Draft Poll - Who Should the Bills select at #91

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Yep it absolutely does.  
 

I’m not remotely interested.  
 

Is it better to draft 20 year olds , develop them, and then not be able to afford to resign them when their rookie contracts are up.   The goal for even first round draft picks in the modern NFL is to get 5 productive years on rookie contracts. Full stop. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by Chaos

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Is it better to draft 20 year olds , develop them, and then not be able to afford to resign them when their rookie contracts are up.   The goal for even first round draft picks in the modern NFL is to get 5 productive years on rookie contracts. Full stop. 

 

Yes.  Every time.  
 

Trust the data

 

 

 

“The difference between a 21-year-old and 22-year-old prospect is tiny, but it’s significant when choosing between a 21-year-old and 23-year-old prospect. If teams are grading a younger prospect similarly and even slightly worse than an older one, the younger one is likely to end up being the better performer…..

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/nfl-draft-success-by-age/amp/
 

 

The OG we’re talking about is 24.  Not interested.  If you aren’t good enough for the draft at 23 you aren’t good enough.  

[Chaos]

Just now, Big Blitz said:

 

Yes.  Every time.  
 

Trust the data

 

 

 

“The difference between a 21-year-old and 22-year-old prospect is tiny, but it’s significant when choosing between a 21-year-old and 23-year-old prospect. If teams are grading a younger prospect similarly and even slightly worse than an older one, the younger one is likely to end up being the better performer…..

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/nfl-draft-success-by-age/amp/
 

 

The OG we’re talking about is 24.  Not interested.  If you aren’t good enough for the draft at 23 you aren’t good enough.  

the bolded part is a big part of this. Its useful for comparison, if the conditions are true, but it doesn't rule out the better prospect if they happen to be older. And again, you only get the first five years for sure.  

[NeverOutNick]

4 hours ago, section122 said:

Interested to hear who your top WRs are.

This weekend I’ll try and come up with a Tier’d list with detail. A couple quick notes about this WR class is that it’s boring at the top with no real #1 game changing types with first round grades but I actually do believe there are about 20 WRs that have skills to make it in the NFL. I don’t see star power like Pickens or Wilson last year but definitely some upside guys.

 

Zay Flowers is my favorite WR in the draft because he makes everything look easy. He’s a natural separator and like I’ve said before he’s like a human algorithm for finding the most precise route to gain the most yardage after catch. 
 

I like Q Johnston as my #2 but why doesn’t he stand out in big moments? Why did he get held to 3 yards vs Georgia in TCUs biggest game in program history? Is he just a big #2?
 

The 3 guys that have #1 WR potential are also HUGE risks because of character or injuries or both are Michael Wilson, Kayshon Boutte and Jonathan Mingo (I would take a shot on any of these guys in the 3-5th round range)

 

Josh Downs is fun to watch and will be an excellent slot WR 

 

Tillman reminds me of Gabe Davis. Love the potential but he’s so up and down with his performances. He makes it look easy and then he almost plays too relaxed to where he coasts along and makes me wonder where the heart is. 
 

Most of the taller receivers in this class aren’t great route runners (even though I don’t love JSN and Addison for where they are projected to go they are the best route runners) I do like the potential with this class in the YAC department.

 

3 other guys I just like because they pass my eye test of this guy could be nice on the bills and will also probably go later in the draft are Jayden Reed (watch this dude in the snow just feels like a Buffalo guy), Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Jones

 

I can dig deeper on more guys later but honestly if we can’t land Flowers or JSN (he’ll be gone) at 27 I’d take BPA round 1 and 2 (at least one of those picks better be O line) and round 3 take whoever remains out of Mingo, Wilson and Boutte (he may be off our board though

[OldTimer1960]

29 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I'm not arguing he is or isn't a 1st rnd pick. I just don’t believe he is the right wr for us and would be a poor choice given our needs and draft position. 

 

Drafting a MLB would make more sense than a wr that, imo, is no better than what we already have.

 

Does anything in Addison’s RAS score give you a warm and fuzzy feeling? Not me. Small and slow.

 

I'll pass thank you.

 

I’m concerned about how thin Addison is, but I think his smooth route running and good hands outweigh his metrics.  He just moves loose and smooth.  I’m not pounding the table for him, but of the WRs, he is one I could live with in round 1 (assuming JSN is gone).

[NewEra]

36 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I'm not arguing he is or isn't a 1st rnd pick. I just don’t believe he is the right wr for us and would be a poor choice given our needs and draft position. 

 

Drafting a MLB would make more sense than a wr that, imo, is no better than what we already have.

 

Does anything in Addison’s RAS score give you a warm and fuzzy feeling? Not me. Small and slow.

 

I'll pass thank you.

 

You’re going to base whether you draft him or not on a RAS score?  Cmon man

[Big Blitz]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

the bolded part is a big part of this. Its useful for comparison, if the conditions are true, but it doesn't rule out the better prospect if they happen to be older. And again, you only get the first five years for sure.  

 

This was the deal with Gabe Davis.

 

 He was drafted young and as a bit of project prospect - we’re still waiting for the breakout but isn’t he younger then Tillman?  
 

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

This was the deal with Gabe Davis.

 

 He was drafted young and as a bit of project prospect - we’re still waiting for the breakout but isn’t he younger then Tillman?  
 

He may be younger and next year he won't be on a rookie contract.  He won't likely be affordable by the Bills.  

[LyndonvilleBill]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re going to base whether you draft him or not on a RAS score?  Cmon man

No, did you not read my first paragraph!? His poor RAS is just another part of why my opinion is obviously different than yours.

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

No, did you not read my first paragraph!? His poor RAS is just another part of why my opinion is obviously different than yours.

You didn’t give me one example of why he’s not worthy of the pick other than that, in you our opinion, Addison is not better than the WRs we have….. and he’s not a fit.   But why?  
 

Choosing a 2nd rd grade non premium position over a 1st rd grade premium position makes no sense no Matter how you want to explain it.  

to me it just comes down to you love Campbell and don’t love addison because of his RAS.  Because if you watched him run routes and maneuver around on the football field, it’s clear that he’s better than 13.  

and Gabe will be on a different team in 2024

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I like Sewell here. 9.04 RAS and downhill player. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You didn’t give me one example of why he’s not worthy of the pick other than that, in you our opinion, Addison is not better than the WRs we have….. and he’s not a fit.   But why?  
 

Choosing a 2nd rd grade non premium position over a 1st rd grade premium position makes no sense no Matter how you want to explain it.  

to me it just comes down to you love Campbell and don’t love addison because of his RAS.  Because if you watched him run routes and maneuver around on the football field, it’s clear that he’s better than 13.  

and Gabe will be on a different team in 2024

He's only a 1st rnd pick because of a week class. It's not because he is special in any way. Lacks speed, poor size, can't block, So he can run a route as long as nobody presses him. He's a slot receiver, not a wr1 or wr1b. We haven't seen what Shakir can do yet and he's bigger, faster and already has a year under his belt. It's not clear Gabe is not here in 24'. That's your opinion. I'll wait until this season plays out first.

 

I do like Campbell. I believe taking him with our first pick would be a much better choice and use of limited resources. There are several WRs after the 1st round that will be available and can be a wr2. There are less options for a good MLB after the top 3 and by what I've seen mock wise and rankings, all 3 will be gone before our 2nd pick. MLB right now is much weaker spot on the team than our wr group. Josh is a great qb and can elevate a wr's play. Josh doesn't have to have a 1st rnd wr to have success. 

[chongli]

I thought I read here the poll was supposed to close at 8 PM ET?

[Virgil]

9 minutes ago, chongli said:

I thought I read here the poll was supposed to close at 8 PM ET?

It did 

[chongli]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

It did 

 

Yes, it did. I apparently don't know how to calculate the difference between ET and PT. LOL. Sorry! 😄

[gobills404]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Haha, I lost my ***** in round 2 when we went DT and Wypler went the very next pick to Cincy.

 

Here in round 3, none of the OL is that impressive, and there are enough left, that we should be able to get one in round 4.

 

But the irony of TBD going DT and S after 3 months of crying about ignoring OL sure is something.

iOL has been addressed. Benton is the better player at a greater position of need. No brainer. Drafting an OL just for the sake of drafting and OL would be stupid.

Edited April 15, 2023 by gobills404

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner, does this mean that you think Zavala if drafted could become day 1 starter?

 

Also, to expand on this a little bit, could you please list all OL prospects who you would expect to be day 1 starters for the Bills (other than obvious top 3 OTs)?

 

Day 1, maybe. I certainly think he can start as a rookie. Obviously he has some vets infront of him and I don't think the Bills would rush him but I think he could earn starting time.

 

I think Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright would all probably start at right tackle. Anthony Harrison and Matthew Bergeron would also have a chance to start there (they'd be slight favourites in a camp battle with Spencer Brown IMO).

 

Inside Peter Skoronski would start. I think of they drafted Torrence (I don't think they would) they would be doing so with the idea that he is a day 1 starter. Steve Avila, John Michael Schmit and Joe Tippman would all have a chance to be too but would all be competing for one of the guard jobs. Morse will start at centre. And then Zavala as discussed.

 

So three tackles and two interior guys who would almost definitely start, plus two other tackles and three other interior guys who would have a shot.