When it comes to drafting a linebacker, is value in the eye of the beholder?

[Sherlock Holmes]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Lol-  33, 73 and 188 for Ed Oliver?  
 

bwhahahahahahahahahahaha

What if there isn’t a guy that they want most?  Draft 101-  don’t reach to fill a need with your first pick. 
 

I think Dodson and Spector will be nearly as good, if not better than Campbell in 2023.  
 

I also think Overshown will make it to our rd 3.  - I think he’s mid late 3rd- early 4th but we’ll see

Oliver and some picks for Cooper Kupp

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Oliver and some picks for Cooper Kupp

Lol, we can dream

[Paup 1995MVP]

19 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

it seems like most of the LB's you mentioned were drafted lower then their projection.  Except for Terrel Bernard.  But the Bills overdrafted him and Tremaine Edmunds.  (I know a lot of you thought Tremaine was excellent and he was only 19 when drafted.  But his instincts for the position are terrible.  And trading up to the middle of the first round for him was a mistake.)  As for Bernard, hopefully he can step his game up to the level of at least a 3rd round pick.  Because he did not show much last year.  

 

Nick Bolton has been excellent for the Chiefs.  And Micah Parsons is a special player, who has lived up to the hype coming out of Penn State.  Overall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

iOverall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

What?  Our average-ish starting RB just got $3.5M while our average-ish starting LB just got $18.5M

[TheyCallMeAndy]

8 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

it seems like most of the LB's you mentioned were drafted lower then their projection.  Except for Terrel Bernard.  But the Bills overdrafted him and Tremaine Edmunds.  (I know a lot of you thought Tremaine was excellent and he was only 19 when drafted.  But his instincts for the position are terrible.  And trading up to the middle of the first round for him was a mistake.)  As for Bernard, hopefully he can step his game up to the level of at least a 3rd round pick.  Because he did not show much last year.  

 

Nick Bolton has been excellent for the Chiefs.  And Micah Parsons is a special player, who has lived up to the hype coming out of Penn State.  Overall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

The point I was suggesting was maybe there is no over or under drafting when it comes to LBers because of how a guy may fit a scheme, and I had a few examples of guys who didn’t necessarily go where they were projected.

 

I showed Bernard because I was curious and I figured others may be too. 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Someone posted Joe Marino's Locked On podcast from a few days ago I think where he discusses Gabe Davis at length. I thought it was pretty fair, looking at what is good in his game and what is not. Some of the negative issues are not likely to change, imo. I searched for this so I could advise you where to find it, but the keywords I tried did not bring it up. It's probably somewhere in the endless Hopkins' thread. I like the RB room considerably more than you. I think Cook is better than a 3rd down specialist. Damien Harris is more than a goal line specialist, provided he can stay healthy. Hines could offer more if Dorsey learns how to make use of pass catching running backs.

 

If you don't go LB early, there isn't a lot. Some suggest Henley or Overshown but they are not inside lbs. Not writing home about any of them. I like Trenton Simpson, then Drew Sanders, then Campbell, so I am an outlier from those who are enamored with Capt. Jack. If they take him, I suppose he is a safe, high floor guy, but I think his ceiling is limited. Of course, if we pick him I'll hope he is great. He's old school and that is both admirable and easy to like. I think Campbell is Paul Posluszny. Another fella on here suggested Jack Del Rio as a comp. I just don't like him at 27 and I don't like the notion that one is forced to take a first round lb because of need. I believe McDermott ought to be able to do more with less. They need to stop gobbling up the first round picks on D. It's possible, of course, that there won't be an offensive player worth taking at 27, but I'd still prefer to give priority there unless it's just plain obvious there is no one worth the pick on that side of the ball. Folks don't think TE2 is valuable enough, but I make an exception for Dalton Kincaid. I think he's a weapon and likely better than any WR available at 27.

 

I'll be . . . unhappy, if they go LB, DT with the first two picks which I surmise is their natural bent. If you wait to the second round for an offensive player, I like Matthew Bergeron and Darnell Washington, though Washington goes well before 59. (TE is one of the richer positions in the draft and I think Dorsey should make 12 personnel a base formation. Some folks don't like that. Jimmy crack corn and I don't care.) I do agree that Beane needs a strong draft, so whether I agree with his strategy or not, we're all hoping he hits.

 

What were the nuts-n-bolts of the Davis analysis, do you remember?   Sounds interesting.  

 

I think I found it on youtube, I'll listen as well.  

 

I'm generally in agreement with you on not consuming even more of our resources on D in rounds 1 & 2, just saying that if we do go D it should be a LB simply because we don't have any after Milano.  Doing more with less is one thing, but trying to do something with next-to-nothing is a whole other thing.  

 

What I will staunchly say is that if Beane doesn't get some impact play from at least one or two of his draft picks this season, IMO it's the beginning of the end of him in Buffalo.  May take a couple seasons, but how long can someone live off of the reputation of a single draft pick a half-decade prior or longer.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’ll start the barrage-  we’re set with cook.  He’s going to be our best RB for the next 3 seasons.  We won’t be drafting a RB in the top 3 rounds.  I thought he was electric down the stretch- 5.7 ypc behind a pretty bad OL.  
 

Dean-  has done nothing.  You can’t really be “fair” when said player hasn’t done anything to warrant praise.  Or has he?  What’s he done?

 

He should be good. I liked the player in college.  He’s playing behind a monster DL with a good pass rush and is flanked by great corners.  
 

I really like what I’ve seen from Cook.  Imo, the only thing that you’ll be talking about next year, when you come back to your bookmark, is his TDs.  The red zone carries will likely go Allen and Harris, and rightly so.  

 

We'll see.  I'll bet you a beer.  LOL  

 

I don't see Cook doing anything more than Singletary ever has, particularly with Damien Harris there.  If the team really believed that he was a 3-down RB they wouldn't have traded for Harris.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

What were the nuts-n-bolts of the Davis analysis, do you remember?   Sounds interesting.  

 

I think I found it on youtube, I'll listen as well.  

 

I'm generally in agreement with you on not consuming even more of our resources on D in rounds 1 & 2, just saying that if we do go D it should be a LB simply because we don't have any after Milano.  Doing more with less is one thing, but trying to do something with next-to-nothing is a whole other thing.  

 

What I will staunchly say is that if Beane doesn't get some impact play from at least one or two of his draft picks this season, IMO it's the beginning of the end of him in Buffalo.  May take a couple seasons, but how long can someone live off of the reputation of a single draft pick a half-decade prior or longer.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very pithy reduction of Marino: He doesn't think greater health is going to alter his contributions. He thinks Davis has developed into what he is. Davis has slow build up speed. He gets open downfield. He isn't a threat for short and intermediate balls. He puts himself into a good position to catch the ball, but his technique for actually catching is not ideal. Marino says he is a "horizontal clapper" and has probably been catching that way from the beginning. Rather than forming a kind of diamond with his hands to softly catch the ball, he tries to clap his hands onto it which is a method that intrinsically has a higher miss rate. Davis' numbers are good for a WR2, but they are somewhat deceptive for a high volume passing offense. Marino thinks he is a superior WR4; an adequate WR2 whose flaws will be something you have to live with.

[nosejob]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see.  I'll bet you a beer.  LOL  

 

I don't see Cook doing anything more than Singletary ever has, particularly with Damien Harris there.  If the team really believed that he was a 3-down RB they wouldn't have traded for Harris.  

 

 

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

Can’t make this stuff up

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

23 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

Well with the way the draft looks right now...I think there are a lot of positions that are going to be team specific as to who is drafted at what spot. 

 

The "experts" mock drafts will be in complete shambles. After maybe the 18th or 19th pick many of the guys selected will likely have round 1 grades by some teams and a 3rd or 4th rounder by others. My prediction is there will be a LOT of guys taken that the Mel Kipers of the world throw the word "reach" out there after the pick. And they will be baffled at some of the guys that they love sliding a complete round or 2 later then they predicted. But teams will grade based on their systems and different guys will get taken over more popular picks. We see it to some extent every year...but I think this year is going to be insane with unexpected picks and late 1st round trades. Buffalo may be in an EXCELLENT spot to trade back.

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Very pithy reduction of Marino: He doesn't think greater health is going to alter his contributions. He thinks Davis has developed into what he is. Davis has slow build up speed. He gets open downfield. He isn't a threat for short and intermediate balls. He puts himself into a good position to catch the ball, but his technique for actually catching is not ideal. Marino says he is a "horizontal clapper" and has probably been catching that way from the beginning. Rather than forming a kind of diamond with his hands to softly catch the ball, he tries to clap his hands onto it which is a method that intrinsically has a higher miss rate. Davis' numbers are good for a WR2, but they are somewhat deceptive for a high volume passing offense. Marino thinks he is a superior WR4; an adequate WR2 whose flaws will be something you have to live with.

 

I've watched Marino's video and he did not show any video at all.  I have a difficult time with just talk not accompanied by video.  It' one thing to say something, it's another to back it up with evidence.  

 

I also watched this one;       Gabe Davis' Top Plays Of The 2022 NFL Season | Buffalo Bills    It won't link here for some reason.  

 

I saw at least five routes the he ran, and that video was over half of his catches.  I saw some very clutch nigh uncatchable passes in there as well that he caught.  

 

I also watched his highlights of the Miami playoff game, 3 of his 6 catches were anything but "right to him."  Great catches.  

 

I then compared that to Allen's passes to Diggs in the same playoff game, whereas both posted about the same stats, and all but one pass to Diggs was on the money, and the one that wasn't also wasn't far off at all, in fact it may have deliberately been thrown slightly under to avoid the defender.  

 

I also noticed that not one of Diggs' passes was on a broken play whereas about half of Davis' seem to be.  That's relevant as well.  

 

IMO fans are being too hasty re: Davis.  

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

 

That's completely irrelevant to the conversation he and I were having.  There's no reason to go down that tangent.  

 

I will say however that Harris I don't expect much from.  He seems like Antowain Smith lite.  His best games were against us and I'm guessing that's why Beane liked him.  He's a JAG rusher.  But to your point, if Cook was going to be the main ball carrier, then why all the talk of needing a RB, and secondly, why sign Harris.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I've watched Marino's video and he did not show any video at all.  I have a difficult time with just talk not accompanied by video.  It' one thing to say something, it's another to back it up with evidence.  

 

I also watched this one;       Gabe Davis' Top Plays Of The 2022 NFL Season | Buffalo Bills    It won't link here for some reason.  

 

I saw at least five routes the he ran, and that video was over half of his catches.  I saw some very clutch nigh uncatchable passes in there as well that he caught.  

 

I also watched his highlights of the Miami playoff game, 3 of his 6 catches were anything but "right to him."  Great catches.  

 

I then compared that to Allen's passes to Diggs in the same playoff game, whereas both posted about the same stats, and all but one pass to Diggs was on the money, and the one that wasn't also wasn't far off at all, in fact it may have deliberately been thrown slightly under to avoid the defender.  

 

I also noticed that not one of Diggs' passes was on a broken play whereas about half of Davis' seem to be.  That's relevant as well.  

 

IMO fans are being too hasty re: Davis.  

 

 

 

 

Lack of video a definite deficit. Marino has a good reputation, apparently. I never watched him before that posted video, so I don't have an informed opinion beyond his reputation. I'm not happy with Davis, but I suspect no one better is going to be on the team to challenge him, so he'll have next year to prove himself one way or the other.

[2ForMacAdoo]

On 4/14/2023 at 9:30 AM, nosejob said:

I'm expecting surprises. Did we not learn anything last year? Sure Ed may have a good year, but in all likelihood someone will pay him stupid money next year.

I think Beane will take advantage of that during the draft....via trades. Let me dream a little....

 

rd.1.pick 27  Calijah Kancey DT

rd.2  Trade  Oliver to his hometown Houston for 33, 73 and 188. We could throw in a late 2024 if need be.

rd.2 pick 33 Jack Campbell

 

Trade: 59, 91 and 205 to Seattle for no. 37

rd. 2 Steve Avila (played C 2021, G 2022 and has played at both G spots)

 

rd.3 pick 73 Isaiah Foskey Edge   He can be listed and lined up at OLB while providing pass rush and or used at DE depending on Von's near and distant future.

 

rd.4 pick 130 BPA

rd.5 pick 137 BPA

rd.6 pick 188 BPA

 

I may have screwed up somewhere but all the trades were to teams with 2 picks in said rds. Flame away

You're assuming that hometown Houston will take hometown Ed's $10million+ 1 year salary off our hands and give us a 2nd, 3rd and 6th in return? In a dream world, sure, but why? When they can just wait out the 2023-2024 year, sign him to a mega contract if they like him so much and surrender zero draft assets to acquire him? Unfortunately, not happening.

[T master]

No matter what position the value is definitely in the eye of the team that is picking them . Each & every team has their own determination where a players value is for the round they are choosing them in Beane may have Campbell as a second round pick but the Ravens may have him higher .

 

GO back a couple of years when the Bills traded with the Chiefs & they took Mahomes & the Bills got Tre they apparently didn't think as highly of Mahomes as the chiefs did and look at them now . Tre is good but well you know where i'm going with this .

 

So definitely the personal preference is in who is doing the picking of each player .

[nosejob]

14 minutes ago, T master said:

No matter what position the value is definitely in the eye of the team that is picking them . Each & every team has their own determination where a players value is for the round they are choosing them in Beane may have Campbell as a second round pick but the Ravens may have him higher .

 

GO back a couple of years when the Bills traded with the Chiefs & they took Mahomes & the Bills got Tre they apparently didn't think as highly of Mahomes as the chiefs did and look at them now . Tre is good but well you know where i'm going with this .

 

So definitely the personal preference is in who is doing the picking of each player .

A good example might be Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.