When it comes to drafting a linebacker, is value in the eye of the beholder?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us are pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went 18th.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

Yeah I agree. I think it’s all about fit in the scheme today. But everybody's draft board is different. 
 

Also Dean went in the 2nd or 3rd I believe. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Yeah I agree. I think it’s all about fit in the scheme today. But everybody's draft board is different. 
 

Also Dean went in the 2nd or 3rd I believe. 

It was the 3rd round, good catch thank you! 

[stuvian]

Value is in the eye of tackling stats and tackling is a lost art

[BillsFanForever19]

3rd Round for Drew Sanders? That's a crazy projection. 90% of prognosticators have him has the 1st LB off the board and often the only MLB in the 1st Round, if any are taken at all.

Edited April 14, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Big Turk]

Depends on scheme and how well they think the player can fit into their scheme if he doesn't have any experience in it.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

23 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

3rd Round for Drew Sanders? That's a crazy projection. 90% of prognosticators have him has the 1st LB off the board and often the only MLB in the 1st Round, if any of at all.

I was surprised by that as well, but history has show big drops and rises are very common. 

[K-9]

Value is always in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to filling a major need. Picking at 27, it’s not much of a reach, if any, anyway.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

3rd Round for Drew Sanders? That's a crazy projection. 90% of prognosticators have him has the 1st LB off the board and often the only MLB in the 1st Round, if any are taken at all.

By the mid 50's both Campbell & Sanders will be gone.  We need to find a trade down partner. 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

By the mid 50's both Campbell & Sanders will be gone.  We need to find a trade down partner. 

 

I think, especially if we don't trade up in Round 1, trading up in Round 2 is the way to go. One of Simpson, Sanders, and Campbell will be reachable from 59 without having to give up too much. Will probably be a lot easier to trade up in this Draft than it will be to trade down.

[NewEra]

I still can’t believe we drafted Terrell ******* Bernard. 
 

sigh

[BillsFanForever19]

28 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I still can’t believe we drafted Terrell ******* Bernard. 
 

sigh

 

The plus side is that when we were on the clock for that pick, I was thinking WR. And the highest rated WR on the board to me at that point was Khalil Shakir, who we were able to steal in the 5th.

 

The downside is Dylan Parham should have been the pick and he was selected the very next pick and went on to start at Guard all season in his rookie year.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The plus side is that when we were on the clock for that pick, I was thinking WR. And the highest rated WR on the board to me at that point was Khalil Shakir, who we were able to steal in the 5th.

 

The downside is Dylan Parham should have been the pick and he was selected the very next pick and went on to start at Guard all season in his rookie year.

Same here regarding Shakir.  I was hoping for him over Bernard.  

 

Parham definitely would’ve been the better pick.  

[Bferra13]

1 hour ago, stuvian said:

Value is in the eye of tackling stats and tackling is a lost art

Yes and we really suck at it.

[gonzo1105]

Now go back in the last 5-10 years and look at the LBs selected and most of them have been busts. It’s a non premium position with a high bust rate double whammy there 

[Manther]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I think, especially if we don't trade up in Round 1, trading up in Round 2 is the way to go. One of Simpson, Sanders, and Campbell will be reachable from 59 without having to give up too much. Will probably be a lot easier to trade up in this Draft than it will be to trade down.

Interesting point.  I think a trade up would need to be with 2024 pick(s).  

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Manther said:

Interesting point.  I think a trade up would need to be with 2024 pick(s).  

 

We'll have an extra 3rd next season, which given the strength of this Draft, may be valuable enough with 59 to get us higher than normal.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Manther said:

Interesting point.  I think a trade up would need to be with 2024 pick(s).  

 

I do not want to give up a single pick in future drafts to move up in this bad draft. I'm happy to use this year's picks.... move back, move up, move around until your heart is content... but do not spend 2024 capital in this draft that would be a major, major error for me. 

 

As for the question - it is true at any position I think. Different teams have different schemes and different things that they want to prioritise. I suppose for the three linebackers at the top of this year's linebacking class though it is particularly true. 

 

• If I was running a coverage defense that wants to play a lot of nickel and dime and confuse you with different coverage looks I think I'd take Simpson - the teams that come to mind here are Buffalo, Dallas, Philadelphia
• If I was playing a simpler scheme with more base defense that is just about everyone playing fast downhill I think I'd take Campbell - the teams that come to mind here are Seattle, Detroit, Baltimore
• If I was playing a heavy blitz scheme I think I'd take Sanders - the teams that come to mind here are the Tampa, Kansas City and the Giants

Edited April 14, 2023 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanForever19]

8 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I was surprised by that as well, but history has show big drops and rises are very common. 

 

Yeah, but in the cases of JOK and Nakobe Dean their falls were due to Medical Issues. Nick Bolton had mid-1st Talent, but fell due to being undersized. 

[BillsFanForever19]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do not want to give up a single pick in future drafts to move up in this bad draft. I'm happy to use this year's picks.... move back, move up, move around until your heart is content... but do not spend 2024 capital in this draft that would be a major, major error for me. 

 

As for the question - it is true at any position I think. Different teams have different schemes and different things that they want to prioritise. I suppose for the three linebackers at the top of this year's linebacking class though it is particularly true. 

 

• If I was running a coverage defense that wants to play a lot of nickel and dime and confuse you with different coverage looks I think I'd take Simpson - the teams that come to mind here are Buffalo, Dallas, Philadelphia
• If I was playing a simpler scheme with more base defense that is just about everyone playing fast downhill I think I'd take Campbell - the teams that come to mind here are Seattle, Detroit, Baltimore
• If I was playing a heavy blitz scheme I think I'd take Sanders - the teams that come to mind here are the Tampa, Kansas City and the Giants

 

When it comes to next year's picks - we will have an extra 3rd. "Weak" class or not, if there is a position in need of addressing and a player that Beane values, I have no problem utilizing that extra 3rd now. Especially if it means getting the MLB he wants or missing out. But I'm not giving up anything more than one of our 3rds next season.

 

Good analysis on the LB's! I tend to agree that Trenton Simpson is a good fit for our Defense and Jack Campbell, not so much. But I think Drew Sanders fits as well. His comp from NFL.com is literally Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds, like Sanders coming out of College, was considered an athletic Pass Rusher. And he is who Beane targeted and selected. I don't think he'd pass on Sanders because he can also rush the passer.