JSN Top 30 Visit with Bills

[whorlnut]

15 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Obviously not everyone realizes this or I wouldn;t have had an all day argument with individuals attacking my take we had better weapons that just weren't used correctly or injured. Instead claiming  how bad our wrs are compared to KC's and that we need to get all new weapons because that's how KC did it. Insead of realizing KC schemes to the players to get open and quickly. 

This is why people are arguing you. You can call others childish, but having a different opinion other than yours isn’t childish. Saying we have better weapons is proven false all across the board. You are right about one thing though…this isn’t worth arguing…mostly because what you are writing as a fact is just your opinion. The numbers prove otherwise. 

14 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Eh, age and injury has a big effect. You can be talented and still end up getting vet mins. See our very own Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips for examples.

I won't lie a lot of my criteria is personal eye test and probably has some bias towards Bills players due to watching them more. But, I still argue many posters on this board act like our players are scrubs and every other teams players are gods. 

You just proved what I said earlier…you have fanboy glasses on that are blinding reality. No one is saying we have scrubs, but there is room for upgrades at several positions. I think most people would agree with this. 

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

A quick google search “nfl leader drops 2023” all the top results come up Gabe Davis tied for the lead with 7.  
 

how true those stats are, idk.  But it’s easy to understand why people would think he led the league in drops

 

Well, if you look at the stats at Pro Football Reference, the leader in drops is Zay Jones with 13, followed by Amari Cooper with 12 and Ja'mar Chase with 11, then Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, Gerald Everett, Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, and Romeo Dobbs all at 9.  Right on their heels would be Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs with 8.

 

Which is why I think drop % is an important metric because a lot of those guys have a high # of drops due to having a high # of targets - but as a % of their targets it's not so bad. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s a pure X though. I think the Bills want some immediate help in the slot. Those guys are more quick twitch.

 

They don't need another slot. Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield all work better in the slot. Davis played in the slot some as a rookie. They need a legit X receiver to compete with Davis and at the very least have someone to take over the WR2 role when he inevitably walks next offseason.

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, dje85 said:

I can agree with that

I didn't mean they were getting veteran minimums but they are getting  less than what their talent would be worth based on comparable stats and production at the position due to age and injury history. A healthy Phillips is well worth the deal we signed him to last year meanwhile he is only getting 750k plus incentives in his one year deal this year. Which if isn't the veteran minimum it is low enough to make my point stand.   

 

? Phillips contract is $2.79M plus incentives, of which enough are "likely to be earned" to make it a $3M contract

I'm not sure where you're getting 750k plus incentives, that would be way below vet minimum salary for a player of his tenure.

 

So Phillips got $4.8M last season and $3M this season, which likely reflects the "efficient FA market" weighing in on his value and while it's far from vet minimum (~3x higher), it agree with the point that injuries and production do influence FA value -

 

- which kind of loops back to the point that, while not perfect, what a player is offered in FA is a reflection of how 32 GMs in the league perceive their productivity.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They don't need another slot. Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield all work better in the slot. Davis played in the slot some as a rookie. They need a legit X receiver to compete with Davis and at the very least have someone to take over the WR2 role when he inevitably walks next offseason.

Bad news for you. I don’t think they’re trying to replace Davis yet. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Davis get a Dawson Knox like contract during camp.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[dje85]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

? Phillips contract is $2.79M plus incentives, of which enough are "likely to be earned" to make it a $3M contract

I'm not sure where you're getting 750k plus incentives, that would be way below vet minimum salary for a player of his tenure.

 

So Phillips got $4.8M last season and $3M this season, which likely reflects the "efficient FA market" weighing in on his value and while it's far from vet minimum (~3x higher), it agree with the point that injuries and production do influence FA value -

 

- which kind of loops back to the point that, while not perfect, what a player is offered in FA is a reflection of how 32 GMs in the league perceive their productivity.

Aaron Wilson

@AaronWilson_NFL

·

1h

#Bills deal for Jordan Phillips one-year, $1.805 million salary $720,000 guaranteed), $500,000 signing bonus after passing physical, $35,000 per game active roster bonus, up to $595,000, $100K offseason workout bonus, playtime incentive up to $750K, sacks incentive up to $850K

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Aaron Wilson

@AaronWilson_NFL

·

1h

#Bills deal for Jordan Phillips one-year, $1.805 million salary $720,000 guaranteed), $500,000 signing bonus after passing physical, $35,000 per game active roster bonus, up to $595,000, $100K offseason workout bonus, playtime incentive up to $750K, sacks incentive up to $850K

 

Well that's better than initially reported!!

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bad news for you. I don’t think they’re trying to replace Davis yet. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Davis get a Dawson Knox like contract during camp.

Not sure he will get a contract but he will get a chance to prove himself this year. 
 

it’s hilarious all the knee jerk fans have. Davis was a fan favorite. Now after having a “bad” year (and his numbers are in par with a lot of number 2s), he’s a bum. I think he’s primed for a really good year. 
 

that said, we still need a couple more wrs. JSN would absolutely perfect for this team.

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They don't need another slot. Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield all work better in the slot. Davis played in the slot some as a rookie. They need a legit X receiver to compete with Davis and at the very least have someone to take over the WR2 role when he inevitably walks next offseason.

With all due respect, dudes like all those guys you named should never stop you from trying to better the position. Those are all very meh players.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not sure he will get a contract but he will get a chance to prove himself this year. 
 

it’s hilarious all the knee jerk fans have. Davis was a fan favorite. Now after having a “bad” year (and his numbers are in par with a lot of number 2s), he’s a bum. I think he’s primed for a really good year. 
 

that said, we still need a couple more wrs. JSN would absolutely perfect for this team.

With all due respect, dudes like all those guys you named should never stop you from trying to better the position. Those are all very meh players.

I can’t see them going into the season with Davis and Oliver ready to be UFA’s. They will get one of them done and possibly trade the other. It’s a similar situation as Edmunds and Knox.

 

 

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, if you look at the stats at Pro Football Reference, the leader in drops is Zay Jones with 13, followed by Amari Cooper with 12 and Ja'mar Chase with 11, then Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, Gerald Everett, Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, and Romeo Dobbs all at 9.  Right on their heels would be Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs with 8.

 

Which is why I think drop % is an important metric because a lot of those guys have a high # of drops due to having a high # of targets - but as a % of their targets it's not so bad. 

Right.  I’m just answering your question.  It’s all over the internet.  
 

your link doesn’t bring up that list for me. Just the main site.  
 

I agree drop% is much more important that drops. Which doesn’t really bode well for Gabe either.  He was just a guy last year and not good enough for me.  Hopefully he’s not good enough for the FO.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I can’t see them going into the season with Davis and Oliver ready to be UFA’s. They will get one of them done and possibly trade the other. It’s a similar situation as Edmunds and Knox.

 

 

I agree with that. I just don’t know what kinda of value you’re going to get for either. A top 5 pick just got traded for a 5th. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with that. I just don’t know what kinda of value you’re going to get for either. A top 5 pick just got traded for a 5th. 

Probably a package deal. But they’re signing one and my guess is Davis because Josh Allen loves him.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not sure he will get a contract but he will get a chance to prove himself this year. 
 

it’s hilarious all the knee jerk fans have. Davis was a fan favorite. Now after having a “bad” year (and his numbers are in par with a lot of number 2s), he’s a bum. I think he’s primed for a really good year. 
 

that said, we still need a couple more wrs. JSN would absolutely perfect for this team.

With all due respect, dudes like all those guys you named should never stop you from trying to better the position. Those are all very meh players.

Numbers don’t tell the story when you’re the #2 option for maybe the best QB in football.  Peerless price was WR2 and had 94 catches 1250 9 TDs on a team with a 1400+ yard 13 TD RB.  
 

The context of WR2 matters.  What team you’re on.  Who’s the QB  What’s the offense?  
 

I expected more.  If that’s what you want from your WR2 with Josh friggin Allen, you need to up your standards.  I sure hope Beane is.  

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With all due respect, dudes like all those guys you named should never stop you from trying to better the position. Those are all very meh players.

 

Maybe, but I wouldn't be looking for a primarily slot player in the 1st round anyways. They gave a decently sized contract to Harty. Shakir showed promise. I'm good with leaning on those two players and using our 1st rounder on a more premium role.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Numbers don’t tell the story when you’re the #2 option for maybe the best QB in football.  Peerless price was WR2 and had 94 catches 1250 9 TDs on a team with a 1400+ yard 13 TD RB.  
 

The context of WR2 matters.  What team you’re on.  Who’s the QB  What’s the offense?  
 

I expected more.  If that’s what you want from your WR2 with Josh friggin Allen, you need to up your standards.  I sure hope Beane is.  

I agree 100%. It’s just how he went from good draft value to potential star to bum so quickly! Expectations are always moving. He is at best a 3rd option/ homer in threat. Still valuable but not a guy you want do count on all the time.

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Maybe, but I wouldn't be looking for a primarily slot player in the 1st round anyways. They gave a decently sized contract to Harty. Shakir showed promise. I'm good with leaning on those two players and using our 1st rounder on a more premium role.

I believe they think JAN can be an outside guy as well. He seems like the perfect compliment to our top “2” guys.

 

 I personally want a monster TE but that’s not happening.

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Maybe, but I wouldn't be looking for a primarily slot player in the 1st round anyways. They gave a decently sized contract to Harty. Shakir showed promise. I'm good with leaning on those two players and using our 1st rounder on a more premium role.

I hope I’m right in thinking we’re going to see a decent amount of Harty on the outside.  

[Beck Water]

27 minutes ago, dje85 said:

I won't lie a lot of my criteria is personal eye test and probably has some bias towards Bills players due to watching them more. But, I still argue many posters on this board act like our players are scrubs and every other teams players are gods. 

 

I'm certainly not gonna step into a vortex about how many posters on this board act or a straw man about "scrubs vs Gods".

 

I'm only concerned with discussing the contention made that KC has "worse talent" or that the Bills had "better/more" offensive weapons.
 

If you reference my previous post, it seems pretty clear that KC had more depth contributing at RB and more pass-catching from an RB (Singletary was #5 in the league for drop %).  Then there's the fact that Juju SS led his team in receptions and yards in his 2nd year (111 receptions, 1426 yds) after a 917 yd, 58 reception rookie tour.  So he's been productive with 2 QB and 2 OCs in 2 different schemes at this point.

 

Davis was certainly was given a lot of opportunity to contribute after being limited in his opportunities his first 2 seasons, but while personally, I would hardly call him a scrub or say he isn't a decent #2 WR, I would have to say that in terms of productivity Smith-Schuster has certainly got the edge, and I think part of that is better route running and better hands.

 

That brings us to McKenzie vs MVS - and I have to say, I think KC overpaid for MVS and didn't get the ROI they expected, but again - MVS production in KC last season was very consistent with his previous production in GB, it's not like he hadn't put up similar numbers for different OCs and a different QB.  While, given more opportunity, McKenzie had more production - but not what was hoped for.   I think it would be pretty hard to argue a higher degree of talent there vs. MVS.

 

I would never deny that Reid has become a strong offensive mind in the game, whereas Dorsey is just putting on his big boy britches and hasn't yet shown that they fit.  But I think it's easy to conflate 3 separate things - talent, scheme, and execution (across the offense, not just one player).  I saw players schemed open and not thrown to a good bit last season in Dorsey's scheme, so I don't think it's so simple as saying Oh Reid schemes those guys open and Dorsey doesn't.  I also saw open guys targeted who muffed it for us - Singletary is damned close to leading the league in drop %, Davis and McKenzie are right up there.  Seems to me that's on them, not on the scheme.

 

[NewEra]

53 minutes ago, dje85 said:

I can agree with that

I didn't mean they were getting veteran minimums but they are getting  less than what their talent would be worth based on comparable stats and production at the position due to age and injury history. A healthy Phillips is well worth the deal we signed him to last year meanwhile he is only getting 750k plus incentives in his one year deal this year. Which if isn't the veteran minimum it is low enough to make my point stand.   

But Phillips is rarely ever healthy….. so that has to be taken in conservation regarding his contract. Last season, he was even worth this year contract (3m)….. because, as always….. he was hurt

 

Edit:  just noticed he’s not getting 3M.  Thanks for posting that.

Edited April 11, 2023 by NewEra

[1ManRaid]

On 4/10/2023 at 3:43 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Diggs thinks Davis is a WR1.

 

If I recall correctly, he said WR1 was his ceiling, which it still is.  His sideline swag and deep threat ability are still largely untapped.

[Solomon Grundy]

Luke Schoonmaker is in Buffalo for a pre-draft visit