JSN Top 30 Visit with Bills

[dje85]

5 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Lots to rip apart here. 
 

You talk about Davis being hurt, but you forget it was an ankle. It had nothing to do with his ability to catch the ball. Whoops. 
 

Didn’t have a crush on Moore at all. Just saying I’d rather have him over anyone who played the slot for us last year.

 

The “solid roster” idea was fabricated all season long. It wasn’t nearly as “solid” on offense as we had 2 boundary receivers, a gadget guy playing in the slot, a RT that was forced to start week one after back surgery because there wasn’t depth behind him, and an aging LG that couldn’t block the wind. Keep trying to convince this roster was better than it actually was. That’s your right. 
 

 

If you are healthy and can run and jump it effects your body position for where you catch the ball also the ability to separate from the cb so the catches are easier.. Absolutely effects catching.  Whoops yourself.  

 

Still would take Shakiir over Moore. 

 

Keep thinking your opinion and condescending tone is more relevant than mine that is your right and I disagree with it. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by dje85

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, dje85 said:

If you are healthy and can run and jump it effects your body position for where you catch the ball also the ability to separate from the cb so the catches are easier.. Absolutely effects catching.  Whoops yourself.  

 

Still would take Shakiir over Moore. 

 

Keep thinking your opinion and condescending tone is more relevant than mine that is your right and I disagree with it. 

My bad…Davis’s ankle caused him to have an almost 50/50 completion percentage on balls that were targeted to him. I’m sure that’s the reason…👍

[DapperCam]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What sign do you have that Josh is unhappy? And while Diggs definitely is, a lot of his unhappiness is reported as a breakdown of his relationship with Josh. I think you are guilty of putting 2 and 2 together and making 5. 

Apparently Allen advocated to bring back Beasley and John Brown at the end of the year. If true, that would be pretty strong evidence.

[dje85]

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

My bad…Davis’s ankle caused him to have an almost 50/50 completion percentage on balls that were targeted to him. I’m sure that’s the reason…👍

Still put up quality wr 2 stats - 836 yards 7 tds. You act like he didn't still put up good numbers. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

With Zay Flowers also coming for a visit it’s clear WR people. They’re drafting a WR in the 1st or 2nd round round. Rejoice.

 

They're apparently meeting with every WR except for Quentin Johnston. Smokescreen? The one WR they actually want to trade up for they aren't meeting?

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Still put up quality wr 2 stats - 836 yards 7 tds. You act like he didn't still put up good numbers. 

Amazing. Wow. Thing is…none of that matters when he’s leading the league in drops. Darn ankle…🙄

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They're apparently meeting with every WR except for Quentin Johnston. Smokescreen? The one WR they actually want to trade up for they aren't meeting?

This is a good point. Someone said that of all the pre draft meetings the last several years, the only player they drafted after meeting was Oliver. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They're apparently meeting with every WR except for Quentin Johnston. Smokescreen? The one WR they actually want to trade up for they aren't meeting?

We’ll see if he gets added to the visit list.

 

He’s a pure X though. I think the Bills want some immediate help in the slot. Those guys are more quick twitch.

 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, dje85 said:

You are telling me he had better / more offensive weapons on that Chiefs offense than the Bills did last year. I'm not arguing he had an amazing oline. I am saying weapons wise the Bills had way more, and still have way more.

 

KC receivers last season >300 yds:

Kelce (#3 in league for receptions, #8 for yards)

Juju S-S (#24 for receptions, #24 for yards, signed for $8.5M/yr, $16M guaranteed)

MVS (#93 for receptions, #55 for yards, $11M cap hit this year)

Jerick McKinnon (#81 for receptions, #67 for yards)

Justin Watson (#234  for receptions, #145 for yards)

 

KC running backs last season ~ 300 yds or more:

Isaiah Pacheco (#25 in yards, #33 in attempts)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (#66 for both)

Jerick McKinnon (#68 for yards, #65 for attempts)

 

Bills receivers last season >300 yds:

Diggs (#4 for receptions, #5 for yards)

Davis (#79 for receptions, #33 for yards)

Knox (#81 for receptions, #80 for yards)

McKenzie (#106 for receptions, #96 for yards, signed for vet minimum)

 

Bills running backs last season >300 yds:

Devin Singletary (#26 in yards, #30 in attempts)

James Cook (#45 in yards, # 55 in attempts)

 

I would like to understand and evaluate your argument that the Bills had better/more offensive weapons than the Chiefs last year, and still have better/more.

Thanks.

 

Both teams had a top quality #1 receiver - Kelce vs Diggs

KC had better production from their #2 and #3 receivers - #24 and #55 for yards vs #33 and #80 for yards

KC had better production from their #4 receiver - #67 for yards vs # 96 for yards

Bills may have had a slight edge in their #2 back but KC had a deeper RB room with 2 quality #2s

 

For FA, KC had a FA signed for 3 yr, $8.5M a year while the Bills had a FA signed for vet minimum and another for a VSB (vet salary benefit) contract if you want to consider Crowder.  So the Market spoke pretty loud and clear there.

 

Seems to me based upon data, that KC had the talent/production edge on offensive weapons last year and since SS was their only FA loss, the majority of the talent is still there.

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

51 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Amazing. Wow. Thing is…none of that matters when he’s leading the league in drops. Darn ankle…🙄

 

Where is this stat that Davis was leading the league in drops? 

(Spoiler: according to this, he wasn't)

[dje85]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

Seems to me based upon data, that KC had the talent/production edge on offensive weapons last year and since SS was their only FA loss, the majority of the talent is still there.

 

My argument was that KC schemes better and gets more out of worse talent which in my opinion you proved with your numbers. They got better numbers out of worse talent. Mahomes makes more out of less. 

 

As for free agency figures I could care less. Every year players are paid well more than they are worth. Look at Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. They got paid insane money that same contract year.  

 

But much like with whorlnut (who I have on ignore now due to his condescending childish tone while debating with me) I am done arguing this junk. Agree to disagree. It is just my opinion that they make bad players look better and great players look even better with there exemplary offensive scheming.  

 

I feel even their oline is made to look better because they get the ball out so quickly. Our oline would have looked better if Allen didn't hold the ball so long out of necessity due to his arm injury and only throwing the ball deep to prevent increased elbow injury.

Edited April 11, 2023 by dje85

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, dje85 said:

My argument was that KC schemes better and gets more out of worse talent which in my opinion you proved with your numbers. They got better numbers out of worse talent. Mahomes makes more out of less. 

 

As for free agency figures I could care less. Every year players are paid well more than they are worth. Look at Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. They got paid insane money that same contract year.  

 

But much like with whorlnut (who I have on ignore now due to his condescending childish tone while debating with me) I am done arguing this junk. Agree to disagree. It is just my opinion that they make bad players look better and great players look even better with there exemplary offensive scheming.  

Do you really thing folks don't know that Andy Reid is a superlative offensive coach? Naturally that is an advantage.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Does he say which 2? I’m loving Jordan Addison at 27. Some are high on slot Josh Downs. Addison is the guy I would sit and wait for at 27. JSN and Flowers probably have to move up.

 

Yes, he named Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers.  His contention is that the Bills need a "3 level" WR who can both stretch the field vertically, run intermediate routes, and play in the slot.  He thinks both those guys could contribute.

 

I'm a bit concerned about Zay Flowers size  - but mostly about the "frustrating drops come with the package" line in his scouting report
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd

 

6 minutes ago, dje85 said:

My argument was that KC schemes better and gets more out of worse talent which in my opinion you proved with your numbers. They got better numbers out of worse talent. Mahomes makes more out of less.

 

So what is your argument that they have "worse talent"?  What are your criteria for evaluating this?

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[dje85]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Do you really thing folks don't know that Andy Reid is a superlative offensive coach? Naturally that is an advantage.

Obviously not everyone realizes this or I wouldn;t have had an all day argument with individuals attacking my take we had better weapons that just weren't used correctly or injured. Instead claiming  how bad our wrs are compared to KC's and that we need to get all new weapons because that's how KC did it. Insead of realizing KC schemes to the players to get open and quickly. 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, dje85 said:

As for free agency figures I could care less. Every year players are paid well more than they are worth. Look at Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. They got paid insane money that same contract year.  

 

It's certainly true that FA don't always offer the ROI the signing team hopes for, but overall seems to me that if a guy is being offered a multi-million multi year contract vs a 1 year, vet minimum contract, it's because talent evaluators around the league believe that one is more talented than another.

 

Sort of the football version of the "efficient market"

[dje85]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's certainly true that FA don't always offer the ROI the signing team hopes for, but overall seems to me that if a guy is being offered a multi-million multi year contract vs a 1 year, vet minimum contract, it's because talent evaluators around the league believe that one is more talented than another.

 

Sort of the football version of the "efficient market"

Eh, age and injury has a big effect. You can be talented and still end up getting vet mins. See our very own Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips for examples.

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yes, he named Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers.  His contention is that the Bills need a "3 level" WR who can both stretch the field vertically, run intermediate routes, and play in the slot.  He thinks both those guys could contribute.

 

I'm a bit concerned about Zay Flowers size  - but mostly about the "frustrating drops come with the package" line in his scouting report
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd

 

 

So what is your argument that they have "worse talent"?  What are your criteria for evaluating this?

 

 

 

I won't lie a lot of my criteria is personal eye test and probably has some bias towards Bills players due to watching them more. But, I still argue many posters on this board act like our players are scrubs and every other teams players are gods. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

I'm guessing we'd have to jump the Pats to take Flowers if we believe he's worth that.  Getting up to pick 13 is going to cost a lot

If we think the Pats are going to take Zay @ 13, we should 💯 let them have him.  If they plan on taking him, my bet is on them trading back then drafting him.  
 

I like the player and would ok with him @ 27 strictly because he’s a playmaker, but the guy has 29 1/4 length arms.  I remember reading this article awhile back.  They had 31.5 as their base.  They listed WRs with shorter than 31.5 inch arms panned out.  The list is very solid, including many of the best WRs in the league.  But only one of those WRs had sub 30 inch arms- desean Jackson.  He measured 29 3/4.  

 

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical-combine-measurement-thresholds-wide-receiver/?amp=1

i really like the way the kid moves, but he could just be a slightly bigger version of Harty.  Hartys arms are 28 1/4 btw.  😱 (lil dirtys are 28 7/8)

 

Does anyone have access to the all time combine measurements?  Maybe there have only been a few WRs with sub 30 inch arms? It could mean nothing in his regard, I just thought it was interesting.  

 

[Beck Water]

Just now, dje85 said:

Eh, age and injury has a big effect. You can be talented and still end up getting vet mins. See our very own Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips for examples.

 

Jordan Phillips isn't getting vet minimum.

 

What you point out is true as a general principle, of course, but would you agree that a generally healthy, 27 yr old Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to a much higher FA deal than a generally healthy 28 yr old Isaiah McKenzie because the FA market evaluates SS as more talented than McKenzie?

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Obviously not everyone realizes this or I wouldn;t have had an all day argument with individuals attacking my take we had better weapons that just weren't used correctly or injured. Instead claiming  how bad our wrs are compared to KC's and that we need to get all new weapons because that's how KC did it. Insead of realizing KC schemes to the players to get open and quickly. 

Well, I don't think it logically follows that because Reid is better at scheming folks open that the players that are schemed open are inferior weapons. You could speculate that some of the Bills' offensive woes were due to lesser play calling, but unless you can experiment with identical conditions, it's hard to make definitive comparison.

[NewEra]

22 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Where is this stat that Davis was leading the league in drops? 

(Spoiler: according to this, he wasn't)

A quick google search “nfl leader drops 2023” all the top results come up Gabe Davis tied for the lead with 7.  
 

how true those stats are, idk.  But it’s easy to understand why people would think he led the league in drops

[dje85]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, I don't think it logically follows that because Reid is better at scheming folks open that the players that are schemed open are inferior weapons. You could speculate that some of the Bills' offensive woes were due to lesser play calling, but unless you can experiment with identical conditions, it's hard to make definitive comparison.

I can agree with that

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Jordan Phillips isn't getting vet minimum.

 

What you point out is true as a general principle, of course, but would you agree that a generally healthy, 27 yr old Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to a much higher FA deal than a generally healthy 28 yr old Isaiah McKenzie because the FA market evaluates SS as more talented than McKenzie?

I didn't mean they were getting veteran minimums but they are getting  less than what their talent would be worth based on comparable stats and production at the position due to age and injury history. A healthy Phillips is well worth the deal we signed him to last year meanwhile he is only getting 750k plus incentives in his one year deal this year. Which if isn't the veteran minimum it is low enough to make my point stand.