27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[PromoTheRobot]

There is no proof that there are no "impact players" outside the top of the draft.  

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

how many backup QB are going to make it over the  long haul ?

 

Bring in someone better but don't see the logic in reaching in the 1st round for a backup, and the odds of being able to dump sed pick for a larger future draft haul if he isn't needed,  seems a bit unlikely. Way too much of a gamble IMO

Not sure if you’re familiar with Forensic Files but these missing persons things usually end the same way and the significant other is usually involved.  Ever heard of Scott Peterson?

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Given the trouble apparently brewing with Josh, I think the Hooker thing is far more realistic…..not just trade ps using him as a chip, but having him rostered as insurance/backup.

“Trouble apparently brewing”. 🤣 

[4merper4mer]

Just now, NewEra said:

“Trouble apparently brewing”. 🤣 

Dude his longtime girlfriend has gone missing.  That’s not good.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Dude his longtime girlfriend has gone missing.  That’s not good.

Not good at all!!!  Omg!! I’m sure he had her killed or kidnapped.  What ever will we do??  Better draft Hendon Hooker to be our new QB!!

[BarleyNY]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Not good at all!!!  Omg!! I’m sure he had her killed or kidnapped.  What ever will we do??  Better draft Hendon Hooker to be our new QB!!

Shhhh!!!

[Mister Defense]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:34 PM, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

 

Yup, sounds like a great idea, to not make the team stronger this year, to not try to win a championship this year, but to get a quarterback for future trade value for  "a few hours or up to a year" , or to stockpile some picks in next year's draft.

 

Would give every Bills' player and fan great hope for this year... as Hendon Hooker arrives at last..

 

 

 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:40 PM, 4merper4mer said:

It is obvious.  Get value.  Depending on which teams have already picked a QB, there will still be several teams interested in Hooker.  In addition to gaining capital, we may be able to prevent him going to NE or another AFC team.

 

Very obvious, of course. 

 

I like how you state things factually, definitively, like "there will still be several teams interested in Hooker".  Shows your confidence in your opinion and what must be considerable research to come to that opinion.

 

And you add a great extra point here, something I and many Bills fans have probably been worrying about for months now:  How do we stop Herndon Hooker from leading another AFC East team?

 

That last tidbit sealed the deal for me.

 

So, Herndon at 27!  Now sounds like a no-brainer kind of move. a win-win-win a sure thing.  It will be tragic if the Bills don't jump on this great opportunity.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Mister Defense

[4merper4mer]

51 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Yup, sounds like a great idea, to not make the team stronger this year, to not try to win a championship this year, but to get a quarterback for future trade value for  "a few hours or up to a year" , or to stockpile some picks in next year's draft.

 

Would give every Bills' player and fan great hope for this year... as Hendon Hooker arrives at last..

 

 

 

 

 

If they don’t find Brittany soon we may need a QB this year.

[4merper4mer]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:34 PM, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

Update:

 

1. I was obviously right as the Hooker hype train has pulled out of the station and is barreling down the tracks…..but maybe at too fast of a clip.

2. The top option remains trading the pick for Hooker hopefully after a bidding war but my guess is he will be taken or a similar trade will happen before 27.

3. It would be amazing if the Bills traded up to say 20 and then instantly leveraged 20 to a team that wants Hooker for more return than what we had just given up….

that’s a fun but very unrealistic scenario.

4. The second option of selecting Hooker if he is there and holding him hostage has drastically increased IMO.  Why let the Chiefs reap the reward at 31 which you know they would look to do?  It’s an hour plus wait, maybe even until tomorrow, but it would almost certainly  pay off.  
5. If Beane feels Hooker is indeed BPA at 27 but would need to stay on the roster then do it.  It would likely kill our top pick this year; I get that and it is a tough pill to swallow but the potential return trading Hooker a year down the road is robust.  Also since the OP a lot has changed with Allen.  I’m sure Beane knows more than us but with Josh’s ex nowhere to be seen…..if there is any chance at all this has become a Scott Peterson situation, you can’t risk the rest of the roster long term on Kyle Allen.

 

Summed up, unless someone they REALLY love slides, if Hooker isn’t taken by 26, they have to use ALL of their leverage.  In a manner of speaking once 26 is off the board, the Bills will then have the number one over all pick in their hands.  Use it.

[The Jokeman]

I think Hooker is older than Josh Allen, seriously.

[Doc]

On 4/17/2023 at 1:41 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

There is no proof that there are no "impact players" outside the top of the draft.  

 

Of course not.  There is proof every year that there are impact players outside the top of the draft.