27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[John from Riverside]

Dude

[That's No Moon]

Who will they get at 27? It's a simple answer, nobody who will be a significant contributor. Drafting has let this team down. Lots lof JAGs, very few home runs.

Edited April 9, 2023 by That's No Moon

[Ya Digg?]

I’m sure that this has been mentioned already, but you want to have them draft a QB in the first, have him sit for a year or 2, the trade Josh for lots of picks…or hope that in a year or 2 hope that some team is going to give up a ton for a project QB who won’t see the field at all? Do I essentially have this right? 

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

I’m sure that this has been mentioned already, but you want to have them draft a QB in the first, have him sit for a year or 2, the trade Josh for lots of picks…or hope that in a year or 2 hope that some team is going to give up a ton for a project QB who won’t see the field at all? Do I essentially have this right? 

Did you bother reading?

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

 

 

Use him to trade back? 

 

I mean I'd love that. Anything we can use to trade back would be helpful. But Hooker isn't generally predicted to go this high. We've got no leverage to use Hooker in that way.

 

You mention "teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him." That's a pretty big assumption. It's possible. If we can do it, I'd love it, but IMO if someone trades up with us, it's more likely to be for someone else. I could certainly be wrong about that.

 

As for drafting him and holding him, a QB doesn't get more valuable generally in a year. It happens very very occasionally, but not often. Things have to fall just right

 

Could you give, say, five examples of times when QBs not drafted in the top 10 or 15 get traded (let's open it up a bit, in the first 2 or 3 years of their career) for more than they were drafted for? That's not a challenge, just that outside of Favre it gets hard to think of guys like that. I'm sure it has happened, but generally for guys outside the top ten, it happens more often if they get playing time. If Allen is injured, I'd rather see a vet in there.

 

Finally, I think Beane has got to get some value from his first down draft pick this year. Not necessarily a full-time starter as people on here keep complaining, but you've got to get some value. If he wants to make future drafts better, I'd rather see him do something like trade our third-rounder this year for a second next year, that kind of thing. Especially if the teams balance things out with a late-rounder or two.

 

This should be BPA at a position of need or trade back, IMO.

[Doc]

No one is trading for, much less trading up into the 1st round for, a QB who won't be healthy until November at best, and who realistically will be put on IR for the whole season.  Then he'll need to play in real games to show his worth, which means the earliest you're looking at a 1st rounder is 2025. 

[Ya Digg?]

11 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you bother reading?

Honestly not a lot of it-seems as though most people just in the first page took care of a lot of what was being said…gotta assume the other pages are pretty much the same. 
 

I’m sure you’ll have some wonderful lecture or retort, but there’s no way you can actually convince many that taking a QB in the first is the best direction to go

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

If someone wants the Hooker they’ll trade up for him at 27 if not we go business as usual. I’m sorry bud but lay off the draft day flick holding players never works. 

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Use him to trade back? 

 

I mean I'd love that. Anything we can use to trade back would be helpful. But Hooker isn't generally predicted to go this high. We've got no leverage to use Hooker in that way.

 

You mention "teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him." That's a pretty big assumption. It's possible. If we can do it, I'd love it, but IMO if someone trades up with us, it's more likely to be for someone else. I could certainly be wrong about that.

 

As for drafting him and holding him, a QB doesn't get more valuable generally in a year. It happens very very occasionally, but not often. Things have to fall just right

 

Could you give, say, five examples of times when QBs not drafted in the top 10 or 15 get traded (let's open it up a bit, in the first 2 or 3 years of their career) for more than they were drafted for? That's not a challenge, just that outside of Favre it gets hard to think of guys like that. I'm sure it has happened, but generally for guys outside the top ten, it happens more often if they get playing time. If Allen is injured, I'd rather see a vet in there.

 

Finally, I think Beane has got to get some value from his first down draft pick this year. Not necessarily a full-time starter as people on here keep complaining, but you've got to get some value. If he wants to make future drafts better, I'd rather see him do something like trade our third-rounder this year for a second next year, that kind of thing. Especially if the teams balance things out with a late-rounder or two.

 

This should be BPA at a position of need or trade back, IMO.

I’m not talking about holding him for a year necessarily.  It might be an hour.  
 

Rob Johnson comes to mind as an example.  Some dude went from Green Bay to Seattle too.

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

If someone wants the Hooker they’ll trade up for him at 27 if not we go business as usual. I’m sorry bud but lay off the draft day flick holding players never works. 

 

6 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

If someone wants the Hooker they’ll trade up for him at 27 if not we go business as usual. I’m sorry bud but lay off the draft day flick holding players never works. 

Eli Manning says hi.

[Dr.Sack]

Hooker can be a great backup QB option. He might even be a great QB, but I wouldn’t pick him at 27, nor do I think he will still be available at 27. The Bills need a WR, MLB, & RT.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

9 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

 

Eli Manning says hi.

Pretty smart - - hold back the best evidence for your theory until the football illiterates who don't remember 2004 have chimed in with their criticisms.

 

For those who may not remember, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning, and then almost immediately traded him to the Giants.  The Chargers got Phillip Rivers AND a third round pick AND a first round pick the following year.  That 1st round pick turned into LB Shawne Merriman - - exactly the position that is currently the biggest question mark in our defense.

 

For the illiterates among us, here are the facts about that trade:

 

https://boltbeat.com/2020/05/30/la-chargers-eli-manning-philip-rivers-robbery/

 

Now I'll grant you that Hooker is not the prospect that Eli Manning was, but there are a lot more QB needy teams than there used to be.  Remember the years the Bills recently spent wandering around the QB wilderness before they drafted Josh Allen?

 

And Beane is a magician with roster moves - - I bet he could send Hooker to a QB needy team for enough draft picks to fill some roster holes, even if Hooker in a Bills uniform wouldn't fetch a first round pick.  If I recall right, we got Milano in the fifth, and we could really use a good rookie LB this year.  Get er' done, Beane ! !

[BruceVilanch]

[Thurman#1]

47 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I’m not talking about holding him for a year necessarily.  It might be an hour.  
 

Rob Johnson comes to mind as an example.  Some dude went from Green Bay to Seattle too.

 

 

I see. 

 

An hour or so? I'd disagree even more strongly about that, though. I mean, if they pulled it off, fantastic. But you'd have to have demand for the guy be almost completely guaranteed. I don't think that happens here. Again, if it did, I'd be thrilled.

 

I'm not sure I remember who you mean by Green Bay to Seattle. Can't be Matt Flynn, he was an FA. But i'm willing to believe it happened. But the fact that you can't quickly come up with five, though you managed more than I did, shows the problem. 

 

That kind of thing is rare, even when you give it three years, as was the time in the Rob Johnson deal. Nice catch by the way, I wouldn't have remembered that one, I guess. But we couldn't wait three years to get value back. With Johnson it was a huge success, getting a 1st rounder for a 4th, but using a first rounder for Hooker expecting the same thing would be much riskier. And part of the reason Johnson brought so much in trade was that he played a bunch due to injury. What if that doesn't happen with Josh?

 

I'd love to see them using the old-style Belichick conveyor belt to get more picks, trade a 3rd for a 2nd the next year, then the next year trade that 2nd for a 1st. Just like a conveyor belt. But Beane doesn't seem willing to do that.

 

It's a nice thought experiment using Hooker that way, IMO, but I can't see them doing it. If I were GM, I wouldn't unless a couple of teams were showing rabid interest. At that point I'd start thinking about it, but what if they back off after you drafted him. Then you're screwed.

 

42 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

 

Eli Manning says hi.

 

It's a bit different when the guy is a top five pick. 

 

You're right that Eli is proof that "holding never works" is wrong. But it does require that the situation work in a very specific way. It's why they're so rare.

 

If a GM was as desperate for Hendon Hooker as the G-Men were for Eli, they'd go get him way above #27.

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

Who will they get at 27? It's a simple answer, nobody who will be a significant contributor. Drafting has let this team down. Lots lof JAGs, very few home runs.

 

 

No, simply not true. 

 

Rousseau is no JAG, that's simply nonsense. Elam looked like by the end of the year he'd figured zone out a bit, and that was his weakness. He was one of the few to play really well against Cincy. Looks like he's going to be a very good one.

 

Those two and Tre White (excuding the trade for Diggs) are the only three first rounders we got in the 20s, and not a single one can be accused of being a JAG, though Elam still has some things to prove.

[Richard Noggin]

54 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

 

Eli Manning says hi.

 

30 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

Pretty smart - - hold back the best evidence for your theory until the football illiterates who don't remember 2004 have chimed in with their criticisms.

 

For those who may not remember, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning, and then almost immediately traded him to the Giants.  The Chargers got Phillip Rivers AND a third round pick AND a first round pick the following year.  That 1st round pick turned into LB Shawne Merriman - - exactly the position that is currently the biggest question mark in our defense.

 

For the illiterates among us, here are the facts about that trade:

 

https://boltbeat.com/2020/05/30/la-chargers-eli-manning-philip-rivers-robbery/

 

Now I'll grant you that Hooker is not the prospect that Eli Manning was, but there are a lot more QB needy teams than there used to be.  Remember the years the Bills recently spent wandering around the QB wilderness before they drafted Josh Allen?

 

And Beane is a magician with roster moves - - I bet he could send Hooker to a QB needy team for enough draft picks to fill some roster holes, even if Hooker in a Bills uniform wouldn't fetch a first round pick.  If I recall right, we got Milano in the fifth, and we could really use a good rookie LB this year.  Get er' done, Beane ! !

 

Really thought this was a bit, but I guess there are people who think what the Chargers did with the #1 pick, a seemingly no-brainer generational QB prospect named Manning, is potentially indicative of what the Bills could do with the #27 pick, an injured 25-year old QB who draws comparisons to Geno Smith. 

 

There is some compelling, hardline BVA (Best VALUE Available) draft thinking here, but I guess I don't see the player in question representing some masterful value maximization if he does in fact fall to 27. Most of the NFL will have decided they can live without him in the 1st. Why will they suddenly have the urgency to trade significant assets once it gets to 27? And if not, why would he then net some meaningful return a year later? Just because he's healthy? I guess it's possible, but in the meantime the Bills don't get to put that value on the field for far too long (which diminishes the real value of this move in 2023).

[mrags]

12 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

[Kornfed]

Hey man, if I could give you a laugh and a beer on here, I would. ..... Some have thought this thought provoking and that's what makes it funny stuff.  ... Whatever yer game, I just gotta commend you on your ability to cause thought and laughter. .... yer goin to heaven 

 

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Dude will be 26 on opening day, add a knee injury and you're talking about a 27yr old "rookie". This is actually insane. I hope you're trolling but don't think you are lol this is 'trade for Skelton' level of dumb

 

Agree. Classic dumb.

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, simply not true. 

 

Rousseau is no JAG, that's simply nonsense. Elam looked like by the end of the year he'd figured zone out a bit, and that was his weakness. He was one of the few to play really well against Cincy. Looks like he's going to be a very good one.

 

Those two and Tre White (excuding the trade for Diggs) are the only three first rounders we got in the 20s, and not a single one can be accused of being a JAG, though Elam still has some things to prove.

All those guys came from strong drafts.  This one is weak.