27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hendon Hooker will help the bills as much as Jordan Love has helped the Packer so far. 

Completely different purpose to the move.  This is more of a situation of what Rob Johnson did for the Jags.  

22 minutes ago, nosejob said:

How far down after 27 do you find a "needy" team?   Why wouldn't they stay put and trade up in the 2nd?...and I don't think because of the 5th yr. option is a worthy

argument.

 

It’s not hard to figure out that they might have to jump other teams.  This includes the Saints who pick at 29.

[hondo in seattle]

I'm trying to understand the OP's suggestion...  So with our one 1st round pick, we'll take a QB we don't need instead of someone we do?  And then trade him to some unknown team for some unknown quantity we'll figure out later on - instead of taking a known quantity in the draft?

 

That's the idea?

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm trying to understand the OP's suggestion...  So with our one 1st round pick, we'll take a QB we don't need instead of someone we do?  And then trade him to some unknown team for some unknown quantity we'll figure out later on - instead of taking a known quantity in the draft?

 

That's the idea?

 

Maybe he just went shopping for a hooker online, and fell in love?  🤷‍♂️

 

Love makes you do crazy things! 

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm trying to understand the OP's suggestion...  So with our one 1st round pick, we'll take a QB we don't need instead of someone we do?  And then trade him to some unknown team for some unknown quantity we'll figure out later on - instead of taking a known quantity in the draft?

 

That's the idea?

 

Like I said, the Packers approve of this approach.

[Adam727]

If Beane wanted to get future value out of pick #27, the NFL already offers a way to do this because future draft picks are devalued in trades.  Beane could try to trade #27 for a 3rd round this year and 1st round next year.  (or whatever the draft chart says is fair compensation this year)  Then try to trade the higher of the 1st round picks next year for a #2 in 2024 and #1 in 2025.  Trade the extra #2 in 2024 straight up for a 1st round pick in 2025.  By moving from #27 to round 3 in 2023, in that scenario the Bills would wind up with a total of 3 1st round picks in 2025.  (The Bills original plus the two new ones)  

 

Any trade would require willing trading partners and I'm sure not all of that would end up working out exactly that way but there are better ways to get future value than paying $4-$5mil a year for a backup QB who hopefully never sees the field during the regular season in the hopes of maybe getting a team to give up multiple picks based on what they see from him in pre-season / mop up duty.  

[QLBillsFan]

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you read it? I made it clear that this option is a distant third choice.

Distant as in another galaxy. JA is not 35… yikes. If someone values HH at #27 super, the Bills trade down. Who after the first 4 are gone will need a QB? Levis may not go in the first so I don’t see anyone making a deal. More importantly the Bills have several needs that don’t include their incredibly valuable first round pick. 

[QLBillsFan]

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Really.  Any choice?  Even if you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better?  Shirley.

In no way is this the same.  The Pack miscalculated Rodgers desire and longevity a bit and were only giving themselves option 3 from my original post.  They never even entertained my first two options.

Why would the Bills actually select HH at 27? To flip him in some deal? When ? Why, if he has first round value would the Bills simply make the trade with the team clamoring for HH? Taking him and hoping for some value that may or may not happen is simply illogical. 
He’s not a first round QB, and so typically after the first round run QB’s pick back up in the 3rd or 4th round. Bucs and Ravens would be the possible teams of interest along with Dan Snyder’s outfit. 

[QLBillsFan]

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

After the first round the following pre 27 teams could realistically be in a position where they would like to draft and develop Hooker and have the year 5 option:

 

Cardinals

Colts

Seahawks

Lions

Raiders

Titans…not a top candidate IMO

Jets

Pats*

Commaders

Bucs

Ravens…..who I think will take Hooker at 22 btw

Vikes…who could also take him at 23

 

 

Two of those disappear based on where Richardson and Levis go.  There are still a lot.  Add to that the Saints going at pick 29.  There is a lot to work with here and way too much attainable value to throw away.  My personal favorite trade would be to Tampa for pick 50, let’s say a 5th and next year’s 1.  Tampa wants to jump the Saints and the teams above them in round 2….there’s your trigger.  We can still get a reasonable MLB at 50  and if we’re lucky Rashee Rice at 59.

Campbell or Sanders are both gone by 50. Elite WR’s are gone as well. A rebuilding Tampa is giving us its #1 next year that’s likely a top 15 pick. Hmm.. Just not seeing your premise but I do like your tenacity. I’m in sales I could use your energy on my team. 

[4merper4mer]

Just now, QLBillsFan said:

Campbell or Sanders are both gone by 50. Elite WR’s are gone as well. A rebuilding Tampa is giving us its #1 next year that’s likely a top 15 pick. Hmm.. Just not seeing your premise but I do like your tenacity. I’m in sales I could use your energy on my team. 

Spoiler alert: The elite receivers are already gone because there are none.

 

What do you sell?

[QLBillsFan]

7 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

3rd round #76 right about where HH will go this year imho. 

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

3rd round #76 right about where HH will go this year imho. 

You’re wrong about that.

[Doc]

Just now, 4merper4mer said:

You’re wrong about that.

 

True.  He'll go later.

[QLBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

True.  He'll go later.

You are probably right. Once the first round is done QB’s do fall. He could go as late as 5-6th round. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

You are probably right. Once the first round is done QB’s do fall. He could go as late as 5-6th round. 

 

He's 25 and coming off an ACL tear suffered 4-1/2 months ago.

[BillsShredder83]

9 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol.  If you think there isn’t first round interest in Hooker you might why to try to catch that turnip truck you fell off.

I’ll be here to accept your apologies if Hooker doesn’t go in the top 26.

Dude will be 26 on opening day, add a knee injury and you're talking about a 27yr old "rookie". This is actually insane. I hope you're trolling but don't think you are lol this is 'trade for Skelton' level of dumb

[QLBillsFan]

22 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Spoiler alert: The elite receivers are already gone because there are none.

 

What do you sell?

That’s fair. The TCU WR would be a great addition to the Bills. But overall light on the top good value in 2nd-4th. I like Mingo from Ole Miss in 3rd or 4th. 
Pharma rare disease on the West coast. 

[Mikie2times]

9 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

I mean, maybe this technique could work. Maybe it completely backfires. I assume it's more likely the latter given several teams could do this each year and none really have ( have they ever ? Drafting a QB with only intent to flip?). Maybe you're onto something they aren't, but I don't know. I think you assume Buffalo has the power from a negotiation stand point with something like this. I don't think we should make that assumption. If you did this you're working against the clock as far as this years draft capital and recovering your assets. If you don't recover higher capital and things move into the next year, I don't know what scenario he would be worth more. He isn't playing, so developing, in reality or the eyes of others seems limited. I think we would see this technique more if it was likely to produce a good result. 

[BillsShredder83]

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Two post 27 teams need to like him in order for Buffalo to add value.  If you’ve seen him play I think you’d agree that 2 or more of the teams I listed probably like him to an extent where they would give up some value if he is there at 27…..which he might not be.  Our alternative is a likely worthless WR bust like Addison, a meh LB or picking a good player like Rice way above projected slot.  Worth the acknowledged risk IMO.

Addison is a beast. So silly to look at every draft the past 5+ years and see several WRs crushing it in the league now, fresh outta college the way RBs used to

[ndirish1978]

Horrible take, really enjoyed it though. You earned that puke emoji.

[4merper4mer]

14 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Horrible take, really enjoyed it though. You earned that puke emoji.

Your preference is to get the LEAST out of available resources?